Last close As at 05/08/2026
GBP48.90
▲ 500.00 (11.39%)
Market capitalisation
GBP1,378m
Research: TMT
Ahead of 4imprint’s interim results, scheduled for 9 August, the company has issued a half-year trading update indicating performance running well ahead of market expectations for the full year. This is in terms of volumes, gross margin, profitability and cash. The May AGM statement had also been very positive, but there was greater uncertainty at that time whether the buoyant conditions would persist and we held our forecasts. We have now lifted our revenue and earnings estimates for FY23 and FY24 and adjusted for the pension buy-in, announced in July. 4imprint is clearly outperforming its market and has plenty of scope to continue to build (profitable) share.
4imprint |
Strong order intake and upgrades |
Trading update |
Media |
1 August 2023 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
4imprint is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Ahead of 4imprint’s interim results, scheduled for 9 August, the company has issued a half-year trading update indicating performance running well ahead of market expectations for the full year. This is in terms of volumes, gross margin, profitability and cash. The May AGM statement had also been very positive, but there was greater uncertainty at that time whether the buoyant conditions would persist and we held our forecasts. We have now lifted our revenue and earnings estimates for FY23 and FY24 and adjusted for the pension buy-in, announced in July. 4imprint is clearly outperforming its market and has plenty of scope to continue to build (profitable) share.
Year |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS** |
P/E |
Yield |
12/21 |
787 |
30.2 |
80.3 |
45.0 |
55.2 |
1.0 |
12/22 |
1,140 |
103.7 |
285.0 |
160.0 |
15.6 |
3.6 |
12/23e |
1,301 |
125.4 |
333.6 |
185.0 |
13.3 |
4.2 |
12/24e |
1,440 |
140.3 |
377.5 |
200.0 |
11.7 |
4.5 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items. **Excluding special dividends.
Strong H1 supports upgrades
We have raised our FY23 revenue estimate by 2% from $1.275bn to $1.302bn (revised guidance is ‘slightly above $1.3bn’) and our pre-tax profit estimate from $110.7m to $125.4m, up 13%, with guidance lifted to ‘not less than $125m’. This larger uplift in profitability stems from the group achieving a higher gross margin than we had anticipated and from the continuing uplift in the revenue earned per marketing dollar, which has been a strong contributory feature over recent periods. More detail on trading and the trajectory for that important metric is likely with the imminent interim results. Changes to our FY24 numbers flow through from the changes made to the current year.
Pension buy-in reduces potential volatility
The legacy defined benefit pension position has been carefully managed over the last few years to reduce the potential risk and with an eye to getting the funding to a position where a buy-in could be carried out. This was achieved in July, via a bulk annuity policy with fair value matching the insured liabilities. This eliminates risks from inflation, interest rates and longevity and removes volatility from 4imprint’s balance sheet. Management is accelerating most of the previously agreed schedule of recovery contributions through to September 2024 with a cash top-up of around $4m, which was paid in July 2023 and is now reflected in our modelling.
Valuation: DCF shows good upside potential
The share price has increased by 12% year-to-date, building on a strong performance from the middle of 2022. A discounted cash flow (weighted average cost of capital of 8.0%; terminal growth of 3%, as before) generates an implied value of £67.30, up from the £65.64 at the time of our March update and still well ahead of the current share price.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
$000s |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023e |
2024e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
560,040 |
787,322 |
1,140,286 |
1,301,265 |
1,440,149 |
Cost of Sales |
(402,100) |
(561,306) |
(818,670) |
(930,319) |
(1,029,620) |
||
Gross Profit |
157,940 |
226,016 |
321,616 |
370,946 |
410,529 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
8,905 |
35,660 |
108,428 |
129,907 |
145,000 |
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
|
|
3,972 |
30,646 |
102,902 |
123,375 |
138,250 |
Intangible Amortisation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
3,972 |
30,646 |
102,902 |
123,375 |
138,250 |
||
Net Interest |
(129) |
(417) |
804 |
2,000 |
2,000 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
3,843 |
30,229 |
103,706 |
125,375 |
140,250 |
Profit Before Tax (IFRS) |
|
|
3,843 |
30,229 |
103,706 |
125,375 |
140,250 |
Tax |
(753) |
(7,643) |
(23,563) |
(31,344) |
(33,660) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
3,090 |
22,586 |
80,143 |
94,031 |
106,590 |
||
Profit After Tax (IFRS) |
3,090 |
22,586 |
80,143 |
94,031 |
106,590 |
||
Discontinued businesses |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net income (norm) |
|
|
3,090 |
22,586 |
80,143 |
94,031 |
106,590 |
Net income (IFRS) |
|
|
3,090 |
22,586 |
80,143 |
94,031 |
106,590 |
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
28.0 |
28.1 |
28.1 |
28.1 |
28.2 |
||
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
11.0 |
80.3 |
285.0 |
333.6 |
377.5 |
EPS - (IFRS) (c) |
|
|
11.0 |
80.5 |
285.6 |
334.4 |
378.3 |
Dividend per share (c) |
0.0 |
45.0 |
160.0 |
185.0 |
200.0 |
||
Special dividend per share (c) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
200.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
28.2 |
28.7 |
28.2 |
28.5 |
28.5 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
1.6 |
4.5 |
9.5 |
10.0 |
10.1 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
0.7 |
3.9 |
9.0 |
9.5 |
9.6 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
43,269 |
40,011 |
47,940 |
52,005 |
50,915 |
Intangible Assets |
0 |
0 |
1,010 |
1,010 |
1,010 |
||
Other intangible assets |
1,100 |
1,045 |
957 |
957 |
957 |
||
Tangible Assets |
24,832 |
24,667 |
29,255 |
31,023 |
31,273 |
||
Right of use assets |
13,065 |
11,725 |
13,103 |
11,400 |
10,060 |
||
Deferred tax assets |
4,272 |
600 |
2,381 |
2,381 |
2,381 |
||
Retirement benefit asset |
|
|
0 |
1,974 |
1,234 |
5,234 |
5,234 |
Current Assets |
|
|
89,812 |
127,771 |
192,353 |
188,479 |
248,923 |
Stocks |
11,271 |
20,559 |
18,090 |
21,160 |
21,662 |
||
Debtors |
38,775 |
63,589 |
87,511 |
97,369 |
107,761 |
||
Cash and short-term deposits |
39,766 |
41,589 |
86,752 |
69,950 |
119,500 |
||
Other |
0 |
2,034 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(51,118) |
(73,027) |
(87,401) |
(95,744) |
(105,525) |
Creditors |
(50,001) |
(71,877) |
(85,966) |
(94,309) |
(104,375) |
||
Short term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Lease liabilities |
(1,117) |
(1,150) |
(1,435) |
(1,435) |
(1,150) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(16,592) |
(11,789) |
(12,672) |
(11,722) |
(10,522) |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Lease liabilities |
(12,089) |
(10,939) |
(12,315) |
(11,365) |
(10,165) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(4,503) |
(850) |
(357) |
(357) |
(357) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
65,371 |
82,966 |
140,220 |
133,018 |
183,791 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
16,462 |
22,846 |
101,317 |
132,000 |
141,500 |
Net Interest |
(13) |
(409) |
699 |
2,000 |
2,000 |
||
Tax |
(507) |
(6,414) |
(20,755) |
(28,844) |
(31,160) |
||
Capex |
(3,724) |
(3,465) |
(8,011) |
(8,300) |
(7,000) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
0 |
(1,700) |
0 |
0 |
||
Pension contributions |
(13,278) |
(4,589) |
(4,367) |
(8,000) |
0 |
||
Financing |
941 |
(843) |
(866) |
(900) |
(900) |
||
Dividends |
0 |
(4,134) |
(18,722) |
(103,560) |
(53,679) |
||
Other/ Capital portion of lease repayments |
(1,418) |
(1,117) |
(2,432) |
(1,200) |
(1,200) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(1,537) |
1,875 |
45,163 |
(16,804) |
49,561 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(41,136) |
(39,766) |
(41,589) |
(86,752) |
(69,950) |
Net impact of disposals etc |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
167 |
(53) |
0 |
2 |
(12) |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(39,766) |
(41,589) |
(86,752) |
(69,950) |
(119,500) |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Real Estate
Foxtons’ interim results highlighted revenue and margin expansion as well as market share gains, evidence of success in rolling out the new strategy, which focuses growth on non-cyclical revenue streams and decouples performance from sales market cycles. If the strategy succeeds, over the medium term Foxtons expects margins to expand by c 500bp and operating profit to more than double. We retain our base case valuation of 59p/share, which implies c 50% upside, and our preferred ‘bull’ case valuation of 124p/share.