Currency in GBP
Last close As at 02/06/2023
GBP47.00
▲ 95.00 (2.06%)
Market capitalisation
GBP1,320m
Research: TMT
4imprint’s pre-close update indicates trading in the later weeks of the full year continued strong, with FY19 results set to be at the higher end of the market forecast range. Revenue (+17%) was slightly above our estimate, which we raised by $10m at the November trading update. The $41.0m net cash at the year end was also a little ahead of our forecast of $39.5m. We have initiated FY21 forecasts, which show the group exceeding management’s $1bn revenue target a year earlier than originally anticipated. The large scale of the addressable market leaves plenty of opportunity for growth, with potential for further share price appreciation.
4imprint Group |
Self-promotion pays |
Trading update |
Media |
16 January 2020 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
4imprint Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
4imprint’s pre-close update indicates trading in the later weeks of the full year continued strong, with FY19 results set to be at the higher end of the market forecast range. Revenue (+17%) was slightly above our estimate, which we raised by $10m at the November trading update. The $41.0m net cash at the year end was also a little ahead of our forecast of $39.5m. We have initiated FY21 forecasts, which show the group exceeding management’s $1bn revenue target a year earlier than originally anticipated. The large scale of the addressable market leaves plenty of opportunity for growth, with potential for further share price appreciation.
Year end |
Revenue ($m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/17 |
627.5 |
42.5 |
107.7 |
58.1 |
31.1 |
1.7 |
12/18 |
738.4 |
46.1 |
133.5 |
70.0 |
25.1 |
2.1 |
12/19e |
855.1 |
54.6 |
152.4 |
82.5 |
22.0 |
2.5 |
12/20e |
950.0 |
60.8 |
169.5 |
92.5 |
19.8 |
2.8 |
12/21e |
1,040.0 |
66.5 |
185.5 |
102.5 |
18.1 |
3.1 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
FY21e should see further progress
Our new FY21e forecasts are based on top-line growth of just below 10%, well ahead of the market. 4imprint’s consistent approach has been to grow revenues through investment in a range of marketing approaches, while maintaining a stable operating margin profile. The Oshkosh distribution facility was extended in FY19 at a cost of $5m. There is no new news at this point on further expansion either in Oshkosh or elsewhere in the US. The sizeable cash resource (and continuing high levels of cash conversion) mean any such investment should be easily funded.
Growth continues to outstrip market
4imprint continues to grow considerably faster than the promotional products distributor market, which industry body ASI estimates was growing at 4.3% in Q319 year-on-year. Given the size of the addressable market (around two-thirds of the total estimated $23bn US promotional products market), there is plenty of scope for years of continuing premium growth without approaching market share hurdles. The industry seems to have tackled the potential disruption from US-China tariffs effectively, although those set to be introduced in December did not take effect. Promotional products remain an attractive marketing medium for businesses for both external marketing purposes and internal motivational programmes.
Valuation: Premium for quality, growing earnings
4imprint’s shares continue to trade at a premium to quoted UK marketing services peers, with which it has little in common. Its long, positive trading record, high cash conversion (five-year average: 103%) and progressive dividend also single it out. A DCF on our numbers (rolled forward a year) based on conservative assumptions of a 9% WACC and 3% terminal growth suggests a value of £29.37 per share, from £26.72 in our last note. An 8% WACC assumption generates a value of £34.69.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
$000s |
2017 |
2018 |
2019e |
2020e |
2021e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
627,518 |
738,418 |
855,078 |
950,000 |
1,040,000 |
Cost of Sales |
(422,299) |
(500,531) |
(576,643) |
(640,661) |
(701,360) |
||
Gross Profit |
205,219 |
237,887 |
278,435 |
309,339 |
338,640 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
45,092 |
48,507 |
58,146 |
64,101 |
70,018 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except). |
42,580 |
45,862 |
53,952 |
59,907 |
65,824 |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
(464) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit (after amort. and before except.) |
42,116 |
45,862 |
53,952 |
59,907 |
65,824 |
||
Operating Profit |
41,284 |
44,322 |
52,938 |
58,907 |
64,824 |
||
Net Interest |
(122) |
227 |
692 |
870 |
692 |
||
Net pension finance charge |
(503) |
(403) |
(406) |
(406) |
(406) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
42,458 |
46,089 |
54,644 |
60,777 |
66,516 |
Profit Before Tax (IFRS) |
|
|
40,659 |
44,146 |
53,224 |
59,371 |
65,110 |
Tax |
(11,734) |
(8,952) |
(11,709) |
(13,062) |
(14,324) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
30,724 |
37,453 |
43,334 |
48,115 |
52,592 |
||
Profit After Tax (IFRS) |
28,925 |
35,194 |
41,514 |
46,309 |
50,786 |
||
Discontinued businesses |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net income (norm) |
|
|
30,291 |
37,511 |
42,934 |
47,718 |
52,194 |
Net income (IFRS) |
|
|
28,925 |
35,194 |
41,514 |
46,309 |
50,786 |
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
28.0 |
28.0 |
28.1 |
28.1 |
28.1 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
107.7 |
133.5 |
152.4 |
169.5 |
185.5 |
EPS - (IFRS) (c) |
|
|
103.1 |
125.6 |
147.8 |
164.9 |
180.9 |
Dividend per share (c) |
58.1 |
70.0 |
82.5 |
92.5 |
102.5 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
32.7 |
32.2 |
32.6 |
32.6 |
32.6 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
7.2 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
6.7 |
6.7 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
6.8 |
6.2 |
6.3 |
6.3 |
6.3 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
25,879 |
25,732 |
31,346 |
30,752 |
30,258 |
Intangible Assets |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other intangible assets |
1,138 |
1,084 |
1,084 |
1,084 |
1,084 |
||
Tangible Assets |
18,829 |
19,012 |
23,518 |
22,924 |
22,430 |
||
Right of use assets |
0 |
0 |
1,108 |
1,108 |
1,108 |
||
Deferred tax assets |
5,912 |
5,636 |
5,636 |
5,636 |
5,636 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
82,831 |
84,234 |
106,729 |
133,509 |
163,064 |
Stocks |
7,940 |
9,878 |
11,667 |
13,222 |
14,764 |
||
Debtors |
44,124 |
46,872 |
54,277 |
60,302 |
66,015 |
||
Cash |
30,767 |
27,484 |
40,785 |
59,985 |
82,285 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(49,024) |
(50,752) |
(60,055) |
(66,579) |
(72,765) |
Creditors |
(48,878) |
(50,752) |
(58,770) |
(65,294) |
(71,480) |
||
Short term / lease borrowings |
0 |
0 |
(1,285) |
(1,285) |
(1,285) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(18,604) |
(15,947) |
(13,226) |
(10,226) |
(7,226) |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other long term liabilities (including pension) |
(18,604) |
(15,947) |
(13,226) |
(10,226) |
(7,226) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
41,082 |
43,267 |
64,794 |
87,456 |
113,331 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
44,576 |
45,583 |
59,800 |
64,300 |
71,750 |
Net Interest |
(122) |
227 |
692 |
870 |
692 |
||
Tax |
(12,751) |
(7,844) |
(12,110) |
(13,459) |
(14,721) |
||
Capex |
(2,359) |
(2,855) |
(8,700) |
(3,600) |
(3,700) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Pension contributions |
(3,675) |
(3,932) |
(3,500) |
(3,500) |
(3,500) |
||
Financing |
(1,359) |
(465) |
(2,500) |
(500) |
(500) |
||
Dividends |
(15,845) |
(32,984) |
(20,814) |
(24,093) |
(26,901) |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
(821) |
(821) |
(821) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
8,465 |
(2,270) |
12,047 |
19,197 |
22,299 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(21,683) |
(30,767) |
(27,484) |
(39,500) |
(58,700) |
Net impact of disposals etc |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
619 |
(1,013) |
(31) |
3 |
1 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(30,767) |
(27,484) |
(39,500) |
(58,700) |
(81,000) |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Financials
Secure Trust Bank’s (STB) pre-close trading update indicates that FY19 results should be in line with expectations, despite the economic slowdown dampening loan demand in the second half of 2019. STB highlighted its strong control over risk while interest margins have been stable. The bank is cautiously optimistic about 2020 and is well positioned, with healthy capital, good liquidity and new business pipelines. STB does not envisage material changes to 2020 guidance, and we are maintaining our estimates and 2,428p per share valuation.
Get access to the very latest content matched to your personal investment style.