CA$2803.1m market cap
CA$25.5 last close
Endeavour Mining is an intermediate gold producer, with four mines in Côte d’Ivoire (Agbaou and Ity) and Burkina Faso (Houndé and Karma) and two major development projects (Ity CIL and Kalana) in the highly prospective west African Birimian greenstone belt.
Investment summary
Since new management was engaged in late-2015 and its strategy re-set, Endeavour has built itself into the largest gold producer in the Côte d’Ivoire and one of the top three in Burkina Faso, offering immediate cash flow from production and near-term growth from projects. To this end, it has instigated a major exploration programme, expending c US$45m pa with the aim of expanding its resources by c 10–15Moz over five years (NB Maiden resources are expected at Kari West and Center in Q419).
Y/E Dec |
Revenue (US$m) |
EBITDA (US$m) |
PBT (US$m) |
EPS (fd) (c) |
P/E (x) |
P/CF (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017A | 652.1 | 201.2 | 49.3 | (6.45) | N/A | 7.8 |
| 2018A | 752.0 | 264.8 | 70.5 | (7.51) | N/A | 7.5 |
| 2019E | 883.7 | 391.1 | 125.3 | 30.24 | 63.6 | 5.9 |
| 2020E | 979.2 | 504.0 | 246.8 | 116.62 | 16.5 | 4.3 |
| Last updated on 16/09/2019 | ||||||
Industry outlook
EDV’s exploration programme is intended to extend and maintain near-term production rates into the foreseeable future. In valuing Endeavour, we have opted to discount forecast cash flows back over four years and then to apply an ex-growth multiple to terminal cash-flows consistent with a 10% discount rate, which results in a value for EDV of c US$27.66/share. In the meantime, Q219 results were materially ahead of our prior expectations while the Ity CIL project has ramped up (effectively) faultlessly.
Last updated on 16/09/2019
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| Metals & mining |
Share price graph
Balance sheet |
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| Forecast net debt (US$m) | 517 |
| Forecast gearing ratio (%) | 51 |
Price performance
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Key management |
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| Michael E. Beckett | Chairman |
| Martino De Ciccio | VP Strategy & Investor Relations |
| Sebastien de Montessus | President and CEO |
| Vincent Benoit | Executive VP and CFO |
