Following its acquisitions of SEMAFO and Teranga, Endeavour has become one of the top 10 major gold producers globally, with six mines in Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso and Senegal plus a portfolio of development projects, all in the West African Birimian greenstone belt.
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Endeavour’s Q322 results released this morning put it solidly on track to meet the top end of its guidance for the year of 1,315–1,400koz of production at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of US$880–930/oz. Production in the quarter was 9.2% above our prior expectation, at 342.7koz (1,370.8koz annualised), while AISC was 8.5% below it, at US$960/oz (US$920/oz year to date), driven by continued strong performances at Endeavour’s Ity and Houndé flagships, in particular, and despite the typical impact of the rainy season. Cash costs (including royalties) amounted to US$839/oz (cf our estimate of US$836/oz).
Y/E Dec |
Revenue (US$m) |
EBITDA (US$m) |
PBT (US$m) |
EPS (fd) (c) |
P/E (x) |
P/CF (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020A | 1847.9 | 910.3 | 501.2 | 181.51 | 11.1 | 3.1 |
| 2021A | 2903.8 | 1517.3 | 756.5 | 203.21 | 9.9 | 3.6 |
| 2022E | 2410.9 | 1241.7 | 572.7 | 123.71 | 16.2 | 3.8 |
| 2023E | 2219.0 | 1223.2 | 763.8 | 184.44 | 10.9 | 4.3 |
Industry outlook
Endeavour has US$216.8m in net cash after fortuitous Q222 results. Recently, it added US$342m in value to Fetekro and Kalana via updated pre-feasibility studies (100% basis) and has announced a comprehensive shareholder returns programme. Exploration in FY16–FY21 yielded 11.4Moz in indicated gold resources and a second five-year plan aims to discover a further 15–20Moz by FY26. This success has increased combined production at Ity and Hounde to 0.5Moz pa until at least 2028. An expansion at Sabadola-Massawaa and the launch of Lafigue (NPV US$477m) are also now underway. Our most recent analysis of Endeavour valued it at US$35.54/share plus US$4.30–7.45/share for exploration.
Last updated on 30/11/2022Content on Endeavour Mining
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Metals & mining
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Balance sheet |
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| Forecast net cash (US$m) | 272.5 |
| Forecast gearing ratio (%) | N/A |
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Key management |
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| Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan | Chairman |
| Joanna Pearson | CFO |
| Jack Garman | IR manager |
| Martino De Ciccio | VP Strategy & Investor Relations |
| Sebastien de Montessus | President and CEO |