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Research: Metals & Mining
In the wake of Endeavour’s Q323 results we have updated our FY23 estimates. Endeavour remains on track to achieve its production guidance of 1,060–1,135koz at an AISC of US$895–950/oz (792koz produced year-to-date at an AISC of US$974/oz). Endeavour has reaffirmed its performance is still set to be weighted towards H223 as previously guided, with Q323 recording the strongest performance this year (production of 280.8koz) and Q423 on track to beat this (estimated at 324.4koz). Q323 results were driven by impressive production at Houndé, reporting 109koz (cf estimates of 84koz). Following the overperformance at Houndé, Q423 is set to be driven by increasing production at its other assets, namely Sabodala-Massawa and Mana.
Written by
Endeavour Mining |
Ready to finish strong |
Q323 results |
Metals and mining |
20 November 2023 |
Share price performance
Business description
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Analysts
Endeavour Mining is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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In the wake of Endeavour’s Q323 results we have updated our FY23 estimates. Endeavour remains on track to achieve its production guidance of 1,060–1,135koz at an AISC of US$895–950/oz (792koz produced year-to-date at an AISC of US$974/oz). Endeavour has reaffirmed its performance is still set to be weighted towards H223 as previously guided, with Q323 recording the strongest performance this year (production of 280.8koz) and Q423 on track to beat this (estimated at 324.4koz). Q323 results were driven by impressive production at Houndé, reporting 109koz (cf estimates of 84koz). Following the overperformance at Houndé, Q423 is set to be driven by increasing production at its other assets, namely Sabodala-Massawa and Mana.
Year end |
Revenue (US$m) |
EBITDA (US$m) |
PBT* |
Operating cash flow per share** (US$) |
DPS |
Yield |
12/21 |
2,903.8 |
1,517.3 |
756.5 |
4.83 |
56 |
2.2 |
12/22 |
2,508.1 |
1,261.3 |
527.2 |
4.12 |
81 |
4.0 |
12/23e |
2,170.5 |
1,108.0 |
530.1 |
2.63 |
81 |
4.0 |
12/24e |
1,921.7 |
997.0 |
565.2 |
3.70 |
95 |
4.7 |
Note: *PBT is normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items. **Operating cash flow per share is calculated after cash tax paid.
Committed to shareholders
Endeavour has continued with its shareholder returns programme, confirming the payment of a US$100m (US$0.40/share) interim dividend for H123, which on an annualised basis represents US$25m, or 14%, more than the minimum dividend commitment for the year of US$175m. This dividend payment takes total shareholder returns to US$777m since Q121, representing roughly 15% of Endeavour’s current market capitalisation and US$354m more than its minimum commitment during this period.
Valuation: Still beating peers
Using an absolute valuation methodology, whereby we discount back four years of cash flows and then apply a perpetual ex-growth multiple to steady-state terminal cash flows in FY26, our valuation of Endeavour is US$34.90 (C$47.97 or £28.09) per share, using a 10% discount rate. Using a capital asset pricing model (CAPM) derived using a (real) discount rate of 6.34% (based on inflation expectations of 2.4499% derived from US 30-year break-even rates) Endeavour is valued at US$59.31 (C$81.51 or £47.74) per share (cf US$55.79, previously). To these valuations a further US$4.30–7.45/share may be added to reflect the value of Endeavour’s five-year exploration programme (see The second five-year plan, published on 20 October 2021). In the meantime, we note that Endeavour is trading at a discount to its peers on at least 84% of common valuation measures when consensus forecasts are used and 77% if Edison forecasts are used. The average valuation measures of its peers imply a share price for Endeavour of US$24.50 (C$33.83 or £20.04).
Q323 results
As stated throughout the year, Endeavour still expects production from its remaining assets to be weighted towards H223, which has been reaffirmed by Q323 results. It expects to achieve FY23 production of 1,060–1,135koz at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of US$895–950/oz. The strong Q323 production figure of 280.8koz was principally the result of better-than-expected output at Houndé, which reported 109koz (cf estimates of 84koz) as stripping activity came to a close at the Kari Pump pit, providing access to higher grades. The increased production at Houndé was somewhat offset by decreases at both Ity and Sabodala-Massawa (owing to lower throughputs and lower average grades). However, our forecasts for Q423 expect production to increase at both these assets, including Mana, which will ultimately drive production in Q423.
Following the divestment of Boungou and Wahgnion, discussed in our last note, Endeavour continues to support the growth of larger, low AISC and longer-life assets such as the Lafigué greenfield project and the Sabodala-Massawa BIOX expansion, which remain on budget and on schedule for start-up in Q224 and Q324 respectively. At the same time Endeavour continues with its exploration efforts, with US$78m of its intended US$80m FY23 budget now spent and it expects to come in slightly over its estimates for FY23.
As a result, we estimate Endeavour’s earnings from mining operations should continue to improve into Q423:
Exhibit 1: Endeavour Mining FY23 forecasts, by quarter
US$000s (unless otherwise indicated) |
Implied Q123 |
Q223 |
Q323e |
Q323 (actual) |
Q423e |
Q423e (current) |
FY23e (current) |
FY23e |
|||||||
Houndé production (koz) |
46.6 |
72.1 |
84.0 |
109.4 |
80.0 |
80.3 |
308.4 |
282.6 |
|||||||
Karma production (koz) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||||
Ity production (koz) |
91.1 |
85.9 |
71.0 |
72.6 |
73.2 |
77.4 |
327.1 |
321.2 |
|||||||
Boungou production (koz) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||||
Mana production (koz) |
44.1 |
31.1 |
32.0 |
30.4 |
70.4 |
60.2 |
165.8 |
177.5 |
|||||||
Sabodala-Massawa |
61.5 |
78.6 |
74.9 |
68.5 |
100.9 |
108.3 |
317.0 |
315.9 |
|||||||
Wahgnion |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||||
Total gold produced (koz) |
243.5 |
268.0 |
261.7 |
280.8 |
324.4 |
326.3 |
1,118.3 |
1,098 |
|||||||
Total gold sold (koz) |
252.1 |
269.0 |
261.7 |
278.0 |
324.4 |
326.3 |
1,125.1 |
1,107 |
|||||||
Gold price (US$/oz)* |
1,892 |
1,941 |
1,916 |
1,898 |
1,838 |
1,947 |
1,922 |
1,894 |
|||||||
Mine level cash costs (US$/oz)** |
681 |
757 |
726 |
735 |
562 |
674 |
710 |
675 |
|||||||
Mine level AISC (US$/oz) |
899 |
951 |
961 |
927 |
769 |
883 |
915 |
890 |
|||||||
Revenue |
|||||||||||||||
– Gold revenue |
481,200 |
524,100 |
501,409 |
530,000 |
596,316 |
635,214 |
2,170,514 |
2,103,025 |
|||||||
Cost of sales |
|||||||||||||||
– Operating expenses |
171,400 |
201,800 |
189,907 |
205,300 |
182,429 |
219,835 |
798,335 |
745,535 |
|||||||
– Royalties |
29,700 |
31,800 |
30,703 |
31,900 |
36,067 |
37,912 |
131,312 |
128,270 |
|||||||
Gross profit |
280,100 |
290,500 |
280,799 |
292,800 |
377,820 |
377,467 |
1,240,867 |
1,229,219 |
|||||||
Depreciation |
(101,900) |
(99,500) |
(107,783) |
(114,400) |
(147,209) |
(151,585) |
(467,385) |
(456,393) |
|||||||
Expenses |
|||||||||||||||
– Corporate costs |
(13,500) |
(14,000) |
(15,000) |
(10,400) |
(15,000) |
(10,400) |
(48,300) |
(57,500) |
|||||||
– Impairments/loss on disposals |
0 |
(14,800) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(14,800) |
(14,800) |
|||||||
– Acquisition etc costs |
|||||||||||||||
– Share based compensation |
(8,400) |
(8,200) |
(6,615) |
(5,300) |
(7,315) |
(7,315) |
(29,215) |
(30,530) |
|||||||
– Exploration costs |
(12,500) |
(14,500) |
(13,000) |
(14,900) |
(13,000) |
(13,500) |
(55,400) |
(53,000) |
|||||||
Total expenses |
(34,400) |
(51,500) |
(34,615) |
(30,600) |
(35,315) |
(31,215) |
(147,715) |
(155,830) |
|||||||
Earnings from operations |
143,800 |
139,500 |
138,401 |
147,800 |
195,296 |
194,667 |
625,767 |
616,997 |
|||||||
Interest income |
|||||||||||||||
Interest expense |
(14,900) |
(17,800) |
(17,094) |
(19,100) |
(17,883) |
(48,950) |
(100,750) |
(67,677) |
|||||||
Net interest |
(14,900) |
(17,800) |
(17,094) |
(19,100) |
(17,883) |
(48,950) |
(100,750) |
(67,677) |
|||||||
Loss on financial instruments |
(72,000) |
31,100 |
(2,970) |
7,200 |
(654) |
(3,960) |
(37,660) |
(44,524) |
|||||||
Other expenses |
(5,100) |
2,600 |
(7,200) |
(9,700) |
(2,500) |
||||||||||
Profit before tax |
51,800 |
155,400 |
118,337 |
128,700 |
176,759 |
141,757 |
477,657 |
502,296 |
|||||||
Current income tax |
48,200 |
91,400 |
38,718 |
53,500 |
50,722 |
50,510 |
243,610 |
229,040 |
|||||||
Deferred income tax |
(11,800) |
(37,200) |
0 |
1,600 |
0 |
0 |
(47,400) |
-49,000 |
|||||||
Total tax |
36,400 |
54,200 |
38,718 |
55,100 |
50,722 |
50,510 |
196,210 |
180,040 |
|||||||
Effective tax rate (%) |
70.3 |
34.9 |
32.7 |
42.8 |
28.7 |
35.6 |
41.1 |
35.8 |
|||||||
Profit after tax |
15,400 |
101,200 |
79,619 |
73,600 |
126,037 |
91,247 |
281,447 |
322,256 |
|||||||
Net profit from discontinued ops. |
5,100 |
(188,600) |
0 |
(400) |
0 |
0 |
-183,900 |
(183,500) |
|||||||
Total net and comprehensive income |
20,500 |
(87,400) |
79,619 |
73,200 |
126,037 |
91,247 |
97,547 |
138,756 |
|||||||
Minority interest |
17,300 |
21,900 |
16,164 |
13,900 |
21,001 |
20,087 |
73,187 |
76,366 |
|||||||
Minority interest (%) |
84.4 |
(25.1) |
20.3 |
19.0 |
16.7 |
22.0 |
75.0 |
55.0 |
|||||||
Profit attributable to shareholders |
3,200 |
(109,300) |
63,455 |
59,300 |
105,036 |
71,161 |
24,361 |
62,391 |
|||||||
Basic EPS from continuing ops (US$) |
(0.008) |
0.321 |
0.257 |
0.242 |
0.426 |
0.289 |
0.842 |
0.843 |
|||||||
Diluted EPS from continuing ops (US$) |
(0.008) |
0.321 |
0.257 |
0.242 |
0.426 |
0.289 |
0.842 |
0.843 |
|||||||
Basic EPS (US$) |
0.013 |
(0.442) |
0.257 |
0.240 |
0.426 |
0.289 |
0.098 |
0.099 |
|||||||
Diluted EPS (US$) |
0.013 |
(0.442) |
0.257 |
0.240 |
0.426 |
0.289 |
0.098 |
0.099 |
|||||||
Norm. basic EPS from cont. ops (US$) |
0.284 |
0.255 |
0.269 |
0.213 |
0.428 |
0.305 |
1.055 |
1.056 |
|||||||
Norm. diluted EPS from cont. ops (US$) |
0.284 |
0.255 |
0.269 |
0.213 |
0.428 |
0.305 |
1.055 |
1.056 |
|||||||
Adj net earnings attributable (US$000s) |
65,000 |
53,700 |
65,822 |
69,500 |
105,581 |
74,249 |
262,257 |
262,449 |
|||||||
Adj net EPS from continuing ops (US$) |
0.263 |
0.217 |
0.267 |
0.281 |
0.428 |
0.301 |
1.062 |
1.063 |
|||||||
Source: Endeavour Mining, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Average realised price (including Sabodala-Massawa stream). **Excludes royalty costs.
Note that Endeavour changed its definition of cash costs in Q420 to include royalties. The decision was made so that Endeavour could be more consistent in reporting in the context of its peer group. For reasons of comparability with past results, however, as well as ease of forecasting (given royalties are reported as a standalone item distinct from operating expenses), we are continuing to present total cash costs excluding royalties.
In the wake of the changes made to our forecasts, a comparison between our quarterly and full-year forecast and consensus forecasts for FY23 adjusted net EPS is as follows:
Exhibit 2: Edison-adjusted net EPS from continuing operations estimates versus consensus FY23 by quarter
(US$/share) |
Q123 |
Q223 |
Q323 |
Q423e |
Sum Q1–Q423e |
FY23e |
Edison |
0.263 |
0.217 |
0.281 |
0.301 |
1.062 |
1.063 |
Mean consensus forecast |
0.263 |
0.217 |
0.281 |
0.444 |
1.205 |
1.054 |
High consensus forecast |
0.263 |
0.217 |
0.281 |
0.580 |
1.341 |
1.360 |
Low consensus forecast |
0.263 |
0.217 |
0.281 |
0.300 |
1.061 |
0.548 |
Number of consensus estimates |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
6 |
N/A |
11 |
Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Consensus at 12 November 2023
Readers should note the discrepancy between the ‘FY23e’ column and the ‘Sum Q1-Q423e’ column in the exhibit above, which strongly suggests that the analysts who are publishing quarterly forecasts are not the same as the ones who are publishing annual forecasts.
Valuation
Endeavour is a multi-asset company that has shown a willingness and desire to trade assets to maintain production, reduce costs and maximise returns to shareholders (eg the sale of Youga in FY16, Nzema in FY17, Tabakoto in FY18, Agbaou in FY20, Karma in FY22 and Boungou and Wahgnion in FY23, and the acquisition of SEMAFO in FY20 and Teranga in FY21). Historically, rather than our customary method of discounting maximum potential dividends over the life of operations back to FY23, for Endeavour we have opted to discount four years of forecast cash flows in FY23–26 back to FY23, then apply an ex-growth terminal multiple of 10x (consistent with using a standardised discount rate of 10%) to forecast cash flows in that year (ie FY26). We would normally exclude exploration expenditure from such a calculation on the basis that it is an investment. In the case of Endeavour, however, we include it because it is a critical component of the company’s ability to continually expand and extend the lives of its mines.
We have updated our FY26 cash flow estimate to US$4.31/share (cf US$4.08/share previously), which implies a terminal valuation of Endeavour at end-FY26 of US$43.0/share, calculated using a discount rate of 10%. With forecast intervening cash flows, this terminal valuation then discounts back to a present valuation of US$34.90/share (cf US$33.52/share, previously) at the start of FY23, as shown in Exhibit 3.
|
Exhibit 3: Endeavour forecast valuation and cash flow per share, FY23–26e (US$/share) |
|
|
Source: Edison Investment Research |
Now that Endeavour is one of the world’s most important producers of gold, we believe it can increasingly attract lower-cost finance, which leads us to also consider a CAPM-derived valuation. Long-term nominal equity returns have been 9% and 30-year break-evens indicate an inflation rate of 2.4499% (source Bloomberg, 13 November 2023) versus 2.4197% previously. These two measures imply an expected real equity return of 6.34% (1.09/1.024499) and applying this to our forecast cash flows would imply a terminal valuation for Endeavour of US$67.97/share (US$63.46/share previously) and a current valuation of US$59.31/share (US$55.79/share previously).
Endeavour peer valuation
Endeavour’s valuation on a series of commonly used measures relative to a selection of gold mining majors (the ranks of which it has joined since its takeover of SEMAFO and Teranga) is as follows:
Exhibit 4: Endeavour’s valuation relative to peers
Company |
Ticker |
Price/cash flow (x) |
EV/EBITDA (x) |
Yield (%) |
|||||||
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
|||
Endeavour (Edison) |
EDV |
7.7 |
5.3 |
4.3 |
4.4 |
4.5 |
3.7 |
4.0 |
4.8 |
7.3 |
|
Endeavour (consensus) |
EDV |
6.4 |
5.0 |
4.7 |
5.4 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
4.7 |
|
Majors |
|||||||||||
Barrick |
ABX |
6.8 |
5.7 |
5.5 |
7.5 |
6.2 |
5.8 |
2.7 |
3.2 |
3.9 |
|
Newmont |
NEM |
8.1 |
6.5 |
6.3 |
10.7 |
6.5 |
6.4 |
4.8 |
4.5 |
4.6 |
|
Kinross |
K |
4.3 |
4.6 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
5.2 |
5.6 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
|
Agnico-Eagle |
AEM |
8.9 |
8.4 |
8.9 |
7.3 |
7.4 |
8.0 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
2.8 |
|
Eldorado |
ELD |
5.7 |
5.3 |
4.7 |
5.1 |
4.5 |
4.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Average |
|
6.8 |
6.1 |
6.1 |
7.1 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
2.6 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
|
Implied Endeavour share price (US$) |
17.70 |
15.96 |
15.88 |
30.19 |
25.04 |
25.10 |
30.68 |
30.09 |
29.89 |
||
Implied Endeavour share price (C$) |
24.44 |
22.03 |
21.92 |
41.68 |
34.57 |
34.65 |
42.35 |
41.53 |
41.26 |
||
Source: Edison Investment Research, Refinitiv. Note: Prices as at 13 November 2023.
Of note is that, without exception, Endeavour’s valuation is lower than the averages of all nine of the measures shown in Exhibit 4 when consensus forecasts are used and eight of the same nine measures when Edison’s forecasts are used. On an individual basis, it is lower than its senior gold mining peers on at least 38 out of 45 (84%) valuation measures if Edison forecasts are used and 35 out of 45 (77%) valuation measures if consensus forecasts are used. Reverse engineered, the average valuation measures of its peers suggest a share price for Endeavour of US$24.50 (C$33.83 or £20.04), implying the share price is at a 17.8% discount. The current London Stock Exchange share price is £16.48, equivalent to US$20.16 at an exchange rate of US$1.2230/£.
Exhibit 5: Financial summary
US$'000s |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023e |
2024e |
2025e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
1,362,121 |
1,847,894 |
2,903,756 |
2,508,100 |
2,170,514 |
1,921,651 |
2,313,963 |
Cost of Sales |
(884,869) |
(1,061,891) |
(1,675,393) |
(1,607,100) |
(1,077,362) |
(924,633) |
(1,071,077) |
||
Gross Profit |
477,252 |
786,003 |
1,228,363 |
901,000 |
1,093,152 |
997,018 |
1,242,885 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
618,443 |
910,295 |
1,517,263 |
1,261,300 |
1,107,952 |
997,018 |
1,242,885 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
281,400 |
546,072 |
859,409 |
645,300 |
640,567 |
603,729 |
798,798 |
|
Exceptionals |
(199,159) |
(201,532) |
(266,000) |
(382,600) |
(52,460) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(9,392) |
8,886 |
(32,263) |
(51,900) |
(9,700) |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
72,849 |
353,426 |
561,146 |
210,800 |
578,407 |
603,729 |
798,798 |
||
Net Interest |
(51,607) |
(53,774) |
(70,623) |
(66,200) |
(100,750) |
(38,545) |
(32,906) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
220,401 |
501,184 |
756,523 |
527,200 |
530,117 |
565,184 |
765,892 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
21,242 |
299,652 |
490,523 |
144,600 |
477,657 |
565,184 |
765,892 |
Tax |
(97,253) |
(158,466) |
(178,253) |
(175,600) |
(196,210) |
(113,588) |
(146,523) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
123,148 |
342,718 |
578,270 |
351,600 |
333,907 |
451,596 |
619,369 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
(76,011) |
141,186 |
312,270 |
(31,000) |
281,447 |
451,596 |
619,369 |
||
Net loss from discontinued operations |
(4,394) |
0 |
0 |
9,100 |
(183,900) |
0 |
0 |
||
Minority interests |
33,126 |
44,719 |
64,486 |
35,400 |
73,187 |
68,610 |
106,829 |
||
Net profit |
(80,405) |
141,186 |
312,270 |
(21,900) |
97,547 |
451,596 |
619,369 |
||
Net attrib. to shareholders contg. businesses (norm) |
90,022 |
297,998 |
513,784 |
316,200 |
260,721 |
382,986 |
512,539 |
||
Net attrib.to shareholders contg. businesses |
(109,137) |
96,466 |
247,784 |
(66,400) |
208,261 |
382,986 |
512,539 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
157.4 |
160.8 |
250.7 |
247.8 |
247.0 |
247.3 |
247.3 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
57.20 |
185.34 |
204.95 |
127.59 |
105.56 |
154.84 |
207.22 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
56.95 |
181.51 |
203.21 |
125.32 |
104.08 |
152.67 |
204.32 |
EPS - (IFRS) ($) |
|
|
(0.72) |
0.60 |
0.99 |
(0.23) |
0.10 |
1.55 |
2.07 |
Dividend per share (c) |
0 |
37 |
56 |
81 |
81 |
95 |
137 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
35.0 |
42.5 |
42.3 |
35.9 |
50.4 |
51.9 |
53.7 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
45.4 |
49.3 |
52.3 |
50.3 |
51.0 |
51.9 |
53.7 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
20.7 |
29.6 |
29.6 |
25.7 |
29.5 |
31.4 |
34.5 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
2,330,033 |
5,093,409 |
5,404,900 |
4,968,300 |
5,328,390 |
5,479,102 |
5,386,681 |
Intangible Assets |
5,498 |
24,851 |
10,000 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Tangible Assets |
2,254,476 |
3,968,746 |
4,980,200 |
4,517,000 |
4,877,090 |
5,097,802 |
5,005,381 |
||
Other** |
70,059 |
1,099,812 |
414,700 |
451,300 |
451,300 |
381,300 |
381,300 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
652,871 |
1,168,382 |
1,366,000 |
1,446,400 |
1,081,158 |
1,085,987 |
1,445,658 |
Stocks |
266,451 |
305,075 |
311,300 |
320,700 |
271,314 |
240,206 |
289,245 |
||
Debtors |
83,836 |
104,545 |
139,900 |
163,400 |
234,898 |
214,444 |
246,689 |
||
Cash |
288,186 |
751,563 |
906,200 |
951,100 |
516,346 |
572,737 |
851,124 |
||
Other |
14,398 |
7,199 |
8,600 |
11,200 |
58,600 |
58,600 |
58,600 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(354,931) |
(661,171) |
(567,100) |
(1,045,600) |
(724,078) |
(704,388) |
(762,966) |
Creditors |
(312,427) |
(612,862) |
(552,700) |
(690,800) |
(699,278) |
(679,588) |
(738,166) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(42,504) |
(48,309) |
(14,400) |
(354,800) |
(24,800) |
(24,800) |
(24,800) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(963,736) |
(1,647,799) |
(1,818,100) |
(1,281,800) |
(1,595,500) |
(1,595,500) |
(1,595,500) |
Long term borrowings |
(770,902) |
(1,026,337) |
(878,600) |
(517,000) |
(877,000) |
(877,000) |
(877,000) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(192,834) |
(621,462) |
(939,500) |
(764,800) |
(718,500) |
(718,500) |
(718,500) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
1,664,237 |
3,952,821 |
4,385,700 |
4,087,300 |
4,089,970 |
4,265,201 |
4,473,873 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
628,617 |
1,046,370 |
1,415,306 |
1,211,200 |
892,273 |
1,028,890 |
1,220,180 |
Net Interest |
(35,413) |
(53,774) |
(26,900) |
(66,200) |
(100,750) |
(38,545) |
(32,906) |
||
Tax |
(109,494) |
(186,332) |
(205,573) |
(189,200) |
(243,610) |
(113,588) |
(146,523) |
||
Capex |
(401,227) |
(335,599) |
(587,496) |
(534,300) |
(888,575) |
(614,000) |
(351,667) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
3,654 |
(19,000) |
(4,700) |
12,900 |
145,000 |
70,000 |
0 |
||
Financing |
2,402 |
100,000 |
(89,400) |
(101,200) |
(19,938) |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(6,154) |
(88,288) |
(159,800) |
(223,800) |
(249,154) |
(276,365) |
(410,696) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
82,385 |
463,377 |
341,437 |
109,400 |
(464,754) |
56,391 |
278,387 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash)* |
|
|
518,607 |
525,220 |
323,083 |
(13,200) |
(79,300) |
385,454 |
329,063 |
Other |
(88,998) |
(261,240) |
(5,154) |
(43,300) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash)* |
|
|
525,220 |
323,083 |
(13,200) |
(79,300) |
385,454 |
329,063 |
50,676 |
Source: Company sources, Edison Investment Research. Note: Presented on a pro forma basis with SEMAFO fully consolidated (income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement) from FY18 balance sheet and Teranga from FY20 balance sheet. EPS normalised from FY18 to reflect continuing business only. *Excludes restricted cash. **Includes restricted cash and investments.
|
|
Research: Investment Companies
BlackRock Sustainable American Income Trust (BRSA) underwent a strategy change in July 2021, to incorporate explicit ESG objectives into its investment approach. Its three managers, Tony DeSpirito, David Zhao and Lisa Yang, aim to deliver an attractive level of income and long-term capital growth from a portfolio of attractively valued, dividend-paying companies, which have favourable ESG credentials either as leaders, improvers or ‘sustainability enablers’. While growth stocks have been favoured by investors for much of the last decade, data from BlackRock show that since 1978, in the one, two and three years following a recession, which is a possibility given the sharp rise in US interest rates, value stocks meaningfully outperformed growth stocks. Also, since 1984, following periods when the US Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, quality stocks led the US market in the subsequent one, two and three years.