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Research: Metals & Mining
Endeavour released its customary operational and financial update to the market on 22 January, showing Q423 production of 280koz and FY23 production of 1,072koz (cf prior guidance of 1,060–1,135koz) – the 11th consecutive year in which it has achieved or exceeded guidance. Notwithstanding an increase in Burkinabe royalty rates in November, all-in sustaining costs (AISC) were very close to our previous expectations at an industry low of US$964/oz (cf a prior guidance range of US$895–950/oz). Simultaneously, Endeavour announced a net debt position as at end-December of US$555m (excluding leases) and a final dividend of US$100m, to take the total FY23 distribution to US$200m, which was 14% above the minimum committed level. This note updates our forecasts for both Q4/FY23 and FY24 in the light of Endeavour’s announcement.
Endeavour Mining |
Looking to FY24 and beyond |
Q423 production and cost results |
Metals and mining |
1 February 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Endeavour Mining is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Endeavour released its customary operational and financial update to the market on 22 January, showing Q423 production of 280koz and FY23 production of 1,072koz (cf prior guidance of 1,060–1,135koz) – the 11th consecutive year in which it has achieved or exceeded guidance. Notwithstanding an increase in Burkinabe royalty rates in November, all-in sustaining costs (AISC) were very close to our previous expectations at an industry low of US$964/oz (cf a prior guidance range of US$895–950/oz). Simultaneously, Endeavour announced a net debt position as at end-December of US$555m (excluding leases) and a final dividend of US$100m, to take the total FY23 distribution to US$200m, which was 14% above the minimum committed level. This note updates our forecasts for both Q4/FY23 and FY24 in the light of Endeavour’s announcement.
Year end |
Revenue (US$m) |
EBITDA (US$m) |
PBT* |
Operating cash flow per share** (US$) |
DPS |
Yield |
12/21 |
2,903.8 |
1,517.3 |
756.5 |
4.83 |
56.0 |
3.1 |
12/22 |
2,508.1 |
1,261.3 |
527.2 |
4.12 |
81.0 |
4.4 |
12/23e |
2,093.6 |
1,053.8 |
501.6 |
2.44 |
81.5 |
4.5 |
12/24e |
2,176.7 |
1,160.4 |
691.8 |
4.14 |
106.7 |
5.8 |
Note: *PBT is normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items. **Operating cash flow per share is calculated after changes in working capital.
FY24 guidance
In addition to announcing its FY23 operating results, Endeavour provided guidance for FY24 of production of 1,130–1,270koz (an increase of 5–18% cf FY23) at an AISC of US$955–1,035/oz. At the same time, capex is anticipated to reduce by almost a third (or US$234.8m) as its two organic growth projects (the Sabodala-Massawa BIOX expansion and Lafigué) enter production and bed down.
Valuation: Cheap cf its peers on almost every level
Using an absolute valuation methodology, whereby we discount back four years of cash flows and then apply a perpetual ex-growth multiple to steady-state terminal cash flows in FY26, our valuation of Endeavour is US$32.12 (cf US$34.90 previously) per share, using a 10% discount rate. To this valuation a further US$4.30–7.45/share may be added to reflect the value of Endeavour’s five-year exploration programme (see The second five-year plan, published on 20 October 2021). In the meantime, Endeavour’s shares are now trading at their lowest level since being admitted to the London Stock Exchange in June 2021 and at a level they were trading at as long ago as January 2017 after the departure of the company’s CEO, Sébastien de Montessus, in January. As a result, Endeavour is trading at a discount to its peers on 95% of common valuation measures if consensus forecasts are used (cf 84% previously) and 91% if Edison forecasts are used (cf 77% previously). Reverse engineered, the average valuation measures of its peers suggest a share price for Endeavour of US$23.80 (C$32.86 or £18.73), to which its shares are currently trading at a 25.3% discount.
Q423 production and costs and FY24 guidance
On 22 January, Endeavour released its customary operational and financial update to the market. Highlights of the update were as follows:
■
Q423 production of 280koz (cf 281koz in Q323) at an AISC of c US$936/oz – down US$31/oz or 3.2% despite a $24/oz increase in royalty costs. This resulted in production for the year of 1,072koz (cf prior guidance of 1,060–1,135koz) and an industry-low AISC of US$964/oz (cf a prior guidance range of US$895–950/oz), albeit including royalty costs that were US$18/oz higher than expected at the time the guidance was originally issued, after alterations to the Burkinabe royalty regime in November.
■
FY23 production of 1,072koz marked the 11th consecutive year of achieving or beating production guidance, with production set to increase by a further 5–18% in FY24 to 1,130–1,270koz including the start-ups of the Sabodala-Massawa BIOX expansion project and the Lafigué project in Q224. AISC is expected to remain low at US$955–1,035/oz.
■
A strong financial position of US$757m of available liquidity (comprising US$517m in cash and US$240m in undrawn credit facilities) and net debt of US$555m, excluding leases.
■
An H223 dividend of US$100m to take the total for FY23 to US$200m, which is 14% above the US$175m minimum committed dividend.
■
An average realised gold price from continuing operations (excluding the impact of realised gains on gold hedges and inclusive of the Sabodala-Massawa gold stream) of US$2,034/oz for Q423 (note that this compares with an average gold price during the period of US$1,977/oz, source: Bloomberg). Including the impact of the gold hedges, the group's realised gold price from continuing operations was US$1,945/oz.
■
Total mine capital expenditure for FY24, consisting of both sustaining and non-sustaining capex, is expected to be c 9% (or US$32.7m) lower than in FY23 at US$315m (cf US$347.7m). Growth capital expenditure for FY24 is expected to be c 45% (or US$202.1m) lower than in FY23 at US$245m (cf US$447.1m).
Operationally, while Houndé and Ity achieved record annual production levels, output was constrained at Mana (as it continues its transition from open-put to underground at Wona) and Sabodala-Massawa (where grades increased by less than expected in Q4 owing to lower grades in the final phases of the Sabodala pit).
In the light of Endeavour’s announcement, we have adjusted our Q423 and FY23 earnings forecasts to those shown in Exhibit 1, below. In the light of its forward-looking guidance, we have also included our updated and improved financial estimates for FY24 (previous FY24 adjusted net EPS from continuing operations estimate US$1.548/share). In this case, the majority of the improvement in our FY24 forecasts may be attributed to higher than previously anticipated production at Ity (270koz cf 250koz) as well as 100koz of production from Lafigué counteracted, to some extent, by our forecast of 250.8koz in output from Houndé (cf official guidance of 260–290koz) to reflect two to eight weeks of strike action there currently. Note that we have, for the moment, maintained our gold price forecast at US$1,822/oz for FY24 in 2023 money terms, which translates to US$1,892/oz in nominal terms (see our report, Shades of the 1970s, Gold: September 1979 revisited, published on 27 September 2023). Should the gold price instead remain at current levels of US$2,025/oz, our forecast for adjusted net EPS from continuing operations would increase by a further 9.7% to US$1.983/share.
Exhibit 1: Endeavour Mining FY23 forecasts, by quarter
US$000s (unless otherwise indicated) |
Implied Q123 |
Q223 |
Q323 |
Q423e |
Q423e (current) |
Variance |
FY23e (current) |
FY23e |
FY24e |
Houndé production (koz) |
46.6 |
72.1 |
109.4 |
80.3 |
83.8 |
4.4 |
311.9 |
308.4 |
250.8 |
Karma production (koz) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
N/A |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Ity production (koz) |
91.1 |
85.9 |
72.6 |
77.4 |
74.1 |
-4.3 |
323.8 |
327.1 |
270.0 |
Boungou production (koz) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
N/A |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Mana production (koz) |
44.1 |
31.1 |
30.4 |
60.2 |
36.7 |
-39.0 |
142.3 |
165.8 |
158.8 |
Sabodala-Massawa |
61.5 |
78.6 |
68.5 |
108.3 |
85.2 |
-21.3 |
293.8 |
317.0 |
403.2 |
Wahgnion |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
N/A |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Lafigué |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
N/A |
- |
- |
100.0 |
Total gold produced (koz) |
243.5 |
268.0 |
280.8 |
326.3 |
279.8 |
-14.3 |
1,071.7 |
1,118.3 |
1,182.9 |
Total gold sold (koz) |
252.1 |
269.0 |
278.0 |
326.3 |
284.8 |
-12.7 |
1,083.6 |
1,125.1 |
1,182.9 |
Gold price (US$/oz)* |
1,892 |
1,941 |
1,898 |
1,947 |
1,960 |
0.7 |
1,924 |
1,922 |
1,892 |
Mine level cash costs (US$/oz)** |
681 |
757 |
735 |
674 |
687 |
1.9 |
715 |
710 |
696 |
Mine level AISC (US$/oz) |
899 |
951 |
927 |
883 |
883 |
0.0 |
917 |
915 |
911 |
Revenue |
|||||||||
– Gold revenue |
481,200 |
524,100 |
530,000 |
635,214 |
558,314 |
-12.1 |
2,093,614 |
2,170,514 |
2,176,719 |
Cost of sales |
|||||||||
– Operating expenses |
171,400 |
201,800 |
205,300 |
219,835 |
195,675 |
-11.0 |
774,175 |
798,335 |
822,995 |
– Royalties |
29,700 |
31,800 |
31,900 |
37,912 |
33,295 |
-12.2 |
126,695 |
131,312 |
129,043 |
Gross profit |
280,100 |
290,500 |
292,800 |
377,467 |
329,344 |
-12.7 |
1,192,744 |
1,240,867 |
1,224,681 |
Depreciation |
(101,900) |
(99,500) |
(114,400) |
(151,585) |
(125,959) |
-16.9 |
(441,759) |
(467,385) |
(408,984) |
Expenses |
|||||||||
– Corporate costs |
(13,500) |
(14,000) |
(10,400) |
(10,400) |
(15,048) |
44.7 |
(52,948) |
(48,300) |
(48,000) |
– Impairments/loss on disposals |
0 |
(14,800) |
0 |
0 |
N/A |
(14,800) |
(14,800) |
0 |
|
– Acquisition etc costs |
N/A |
0 |
0 |
||||||
– Share based compensation |
(8,400) |
(8,200) |
(5,300) |
(7,315) |
(8,677) |
18.6 |
(30,577) |
(29,215) |
0 |
– Exploration costs |
(12,500) |
(14,500) |
(14,900) |
(13,500) |
(13,500) |
0.0 |
(55,400) |
(55,400) |
(16,250) |
Total expenses |
(34,400) |
(51,500) |
(30,600) |
(31,215) |
(37,225) |
19.3 |
(153,725) |
(147,715) |
(64,250) |
Earnings from operations |
143,800 |
139,500 |
147,800 |
194,667 |
166,160 |
-14.6 |
597,260 |
625,767 |
751,447 |
Interest income |
|||||||||
Interest expense |
(14,900) |
(17,800) |
(19,100) |
(48,950) |
(48,950) |
0.0 |
(100,750) |
(100,750) |
|
Net interest |
(14,900) |
(17,800) |
(19,100) |
(48,950) |
(48,950) |
0.0 |
(100,750) |
(100,750) |
(59,680) |
Loss on financial instruments |
(72,000) |
31,100 |
7,200 |
(3,960) |
(4,341) |
9.6 |
(38,041) |
(37,660) |
0 |
Other expenses |
(5,100) |
2,600 |
(7,200) |
N/A |
(9,700) |
(9,700) |
0 |
||
Profit before tax |
51,800 |
155,400 |
128,700 |
141,757 |
112,869 |
-20.4 |
448,769 |
477,657 |
691,767 |
Current income tax |
48,200 |
91,400 |
53,500 |
50,510 |
45,119 |
-10.7 |
238,219 |
243,610 |
155,619 |
Deferred income tax |
(11,800) |
(37,200) |
1,600 |
0 |
0 |
N/A |
(47,400) |
(47,400) |
0 |
Total tax |
36,400 |
54,200 |
55,100 |
50,510 |
45,119 |
-10.7 |
190,819 |
196,210 |
155,619 |
Effective tax rate (%) |
70.3 |
34.9 |
42.8 |
35.6 |
40.0 |
12.4 |
42.5 |
41.1 |
22.5 |
Profit after tax |
15,400 |
101,200 |
73,600 |
91,247 |
67,750 |
-25.8 |
257,950 |
281,447 |
536,148 |
Net profit from discontinued ops. |
5,100 |
(188,600) |
(400) |
0 |
0 |
N/A |
(183,900) |
(183,900) |
0 |
Total net and comprehensive income |
20,500 |
(87,400) |
73,200 |
91,247 |
67,750 |
-25.8 |
74,050 |
97,547 |
536,148 |
Minority interest |
17,300 |
21,900 |
13,900 |
20,087 |
18,483 |
-8.0 |
71,583 |
73,187 |
93,439 |
Minority interest (%) |
84.4 |
(25.1) |
19.0 |
22.0 |
27.3 |
24.1 |
96.7 |
75.0 |
17.4 |
Profit attributable to shareholders |
3,200 |
(109,300) |
59,300 |
71,161 |
49,267 |
-30.8 |
2,467 |
24,361 |
442,709 |
2,176,719 |
|||||||||
Basic EPS from continuing ops (US$) |
(0.008) |
0.321 |
0.242 |
0.289 |
0.200 |
-30.8 |
0.755 |
0.842 |
1.807 |
Diluted EPS from continuing ops (US$) |
(0.008) |
0.321 |
0.242 |
0.289 |
0.200 |
-30.8 |
0.755 |
0.842 |
1.781 |
Basic EPS (US$) |
0.013 |
(0.442) |
0.240 |
0.289 |
0.200 |
-30.8 |
0.010 |
0.098 |
1.807 |
Diluted EPS (US$) |
0.013 |
(0.442) |
0.240 |
0.289 |
0.200 |
-30.8 |
0.010 |
0.098 |
1.781 |
Norm. basic EPS from cont. ops (US$) |
0.284 |
0.255 |
0.213 |
0.305 |
0.218 |
-28.5 |
0.969 |
1.055 |
1.807 |
Norm. diluted EPS from cont. ops (US$) |
0.284 |
0.255 |
0.213 |
0.305 |
0.218 |
-28.5 |
0.969 |
1.055 |
1.781 |
Adj net earnings attributable (US$000s) |
65,000 |
53,700 |
69,500 |
74,249 |
52,424 |
-29.4 |
240,624 |
262,257 |
442,709 |
Adj net EPS from continuing ops (US$) |
0.263 |
0.217 |
0.281 |
0.301 |
0.213 |
-29.2 |
0.975 |
1.062 |
1.807 |
Source: Endeavour Mining, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Average realised price (including Sabodala-Massawa stream). **Excludes royalty costs.
In the aftermath of the changes made to our forecasts, a comparison between our quarterly and full-year forecast and consensus forecasts for FY23 adjusted net EPS (plus those for FY24) is as follows:
Exhibit 2: Edison adjusted net EPS from continuing operations estimates cf consensus FY23 by quarter & FY24
(US$/share) |
Q123 |
Q223 |
Q323 |
Q423e |
Sum Q1–Q423e |
FY23e |
FY24e |
Edison |
0.263 |
0.217 |
0.281 |
0.213 |
0.974 |
0.975 |
1.807 |
Mean consensus forecast |
0.263 |
0.217 |
0.281 |
0.330 |
1.091 |
1.050 |
1.520 |
High consensus forecast |
0.263 |
0.217 |
0.281 |
0.500 |
1.261 |
1.280 |
2.100 |
Low consensus forecast |
0.263 |
0.217 |
0.281 |
0.250 |
1.011 |
0.700 |
0.870 |
Number of consensus estimates |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
8 |
N/A |
14 |
14 |
Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Consensus at 29 January 2024.
Following the divestment of Boungou and Wahgnion, discussed in our note last year, Endeavour continues to support the growth of larger, low AISC and longer-life assets such as the Lafigué greenfield project and the Sabodala-Massawa BIOX expansion, which are both on schedule for start-up in Q224 (cf Lafigué previously expected in Q324). At the same time, Endeavour continues with its exploration efforts, with US$65m budgeted in FY24 (cf US$95m in FY23), of which we forecast 75% will be capitalised and 25% will be expensed (cf 38% and 62% in FY23, respectively).
Valuation
Absolute
Endeavour is a multi-asset company that has shown a willingness and desire to trade assets to maintain production, reduce costs and maximise returns to shareholders (eg the sale of Youga in FY16, Nzema in FY17, Tabakoto in FY18, Agbaou in FY20, Karma in FY22 and Boungou and Wahgnion in FY23, and the acquisition of SEMAFO in FY20 and Teranga in FY21). Historically, rather than our customary method of discounting maximum potential dividends over the life of operations back to FY24, for Endeavour we have opted to discount three years of forecast cash flows in FY24–26 back to FY24 and to then apply an ex-growth terminal multiple of 10x (consistent with using a standardised discount rate of 10%) to forecast cash flows in that year (ie FY26). We would normally exclude exploration expenditure from such a calculation on the basis that it is an investment. In the case of Endeavour, however, we include it because it is a critical component of the company’s ability to continually expand and extend its mines’ lives.
For the purposes of this note, we have updated our FY23 and FY24 forecasts to reflect Endeavour’s updated guidance production, cost and capex guidance. We have also adjusted investment cash flows to reflect its disclosures regarding consideration received to date from its divestment of Boungou and Wahgnion to Lilium Capital in June 2023, as well as its guidance related to cash and net debt. Finally, we have also removed any contribution from Kalana pending clarification regarding the group’s development plans for this asset. In the aftermath of these changes, we have updated our FY26 cash flow estimate to US$3.38/share (cf US$1.86/share in FY24), which implies a terminal valuation for Endeavour at end-FY26 of US$33.82/share, calculated using a discount rate of 10%. With forecast intervening cash flows, this terminal valuation then discounts back to a present valuation of US$32.12/share (cf US$34.90/share, previously) at the start of FY24, as shown in Exhibit 3.
|
Exhibit 3: Endeavour forecast valuation and cash flow per share, FY24–26e (US$/share) |
|
|
Source: Edison Investment Research |
Relative
In the wake of the departure of the company’s CEO, Sébastien de Montessus, in January, Endeavour’s shares are now trading at their lowest level since being admitted to the London Stock Exchange in June 2021 and at a level they were trading at as long ago as January 2017. As such, its valuation on a series of commonly used measures relative to a selection of gold mining majors is as follows:
Exhibit 4: Endeavour’s valuation relative to peers
Company |
Ticker |
Price/cash flow (x) |
EV/EBITDA (x) |
Yield (%) |
|||||||
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
|||
Endeavour (Edison) |
EDV |
7.5 |
4.4 |
4.1 |
4.8 |
4.4 |
4.1 |
4.5 |
5.8 |
8.2 |
|
Endeavour (consensus) |
EDV |
6.1 |
4.2 |
3.8 |
4.8 |
4.3 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
5.3 |
|
Majors |
|||||||||||
Barrick |
ABX |
7.0 |
5.9 |
5.6 |
7.5 |
6.0 |
5.6 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
4.0 |
|
Newmont |
NEM |
8.6 |
7.0 |
6.0 |
10.3 |
6.4 |
5.6 |
4.9 |
4.5 |
4.4 |
|
Kinross |
K |
4.4 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
5.3 |
5.6 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
|
Agnico-Eagle |
AEM |
9.3 |
8.4 |
8.7 |
7.5 |
7.6 |
8.0 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.0 |
|
Eldorado |
ELD |
6.4 |
5.7 |
5.0 |
5.8 |
4.9 |
4.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Average |
|
7.1 |
6.3 |
6.1 |
7.3 |
6.0 |
5.8 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
2.7 |
|
Implied Endeavour share price (US$) |
17.38 |
15.46 |
14.74 |
28.76 |
23.51 |
22.69 |
30.77 |
31.05 |
29.83 |
||
Implied Endeavour share price (C$) |
24.00 |
21.34 |
20.36 |
39.71 |
32.46 |
31.32 |
42.48 |
42.87 |
41.18 |
||
Source: Edison Investment Research, Refinitiv. Note: Prices as at 29 January 2024.
Of note is that, without exception, Endeavour’s valuation is lower than the averages of all nine of the measures shown in Exhibit 4 when consensus forecasts are used and eight of the same nine measures when Edison’s forecasts are used. On an individual basis, it is lower than its senior gold mining peers on at least 41 out of 45 (91%) valuation measures if Edison forecasts are used and 43 out of 45 (95%) valuation measures if consensus forecasts are used (note that as recently as November 2023 this latter figure was 35 out of 45 valuation measures or 77%). Reverse engineered, the average valuation measures of its peers suggest a share price for Endeavour of US$23.80 (C$32.86 or £18.73), to which its shares are currently trading at a 25.3% discount.
Exhibit 5: Financial summary
US$'000s |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023e |
2024e |
2025e |
||
December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
1,362,121 |
1,847,894 |
2,903,756 |
2,508,100 |
2,093,614 |
2,176,719 |
2,313,963 |
Cost of Sales |
(884,869) |
(1,061,891) |
(1,675,393) |
(1,607,100) |
(1,054,595) |
(1,016,288) |
(1,085,973) |
||
Gross Profit |
477,252 |
786,003 |
1,228,363 |
901,000 |
1,039,019 |
1,160,431 |
1,227,989 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
618,443 |
910,295 |
1,517,263 |
1,261,300 |
1,053,819 |
1,160,431 |
1,227,989 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
281,400 |
546,072 |
859,409 |
645,300 |
612,060 |
751,447 |
768,624 |
|
Intangible Amortisation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
(199,159) |
(201,532) |
(266,000) |
(382,600) |
(52,841) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(9,392) |
8,886 |
(32,263) |
(51,900) |
(9,700) |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
72,849 |
353,426 |
561,146 |
210,800 |
549,519 |
751,447 |
768,624 |
||
Net Interest |
(51,607) |
(53,774) |
(70,623) |
(66,200) |
(100,750) |
(59,680) |
(45,738) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
220,401 |
501,184 |
756,523 |
527,200 |
501,610 |
691,767 |
722,886 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
21,242 |
299,652 |
490,523 |
144,600 |
448,769 |
691,767 |
722,886 |
Tax |
(97,253) |
(158,466) |
(178,253) |
(175,600) |
(190,819) |
(155,619) |
(145,909) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
123,148 |
342,718 |
578,270 |
351,600 |
310,791 |
536,148 |
576,978 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
(76,011) |
141,186 |
312,270 |
(31,000) |
257,950 |
536,148 |
576,978 |
||
Net loss from discontinued operations |
(4,394) |
0 |
0 |
9,100 |
(183,900) |
0 |
0 |
||
Minority interests |
33,126 |
44,719 |
64,486 |
35,400 |
71,583 |
93,439 |
106,671 |
||
Net profit |
(80,405) |
141,186 |
312,270 |
(21,900) |
74,050 |
536,148 |
576,978 |
||
Net attrib. to shareholders contg. businesses (norm) |
90,022 |
297,998 |
513,784 |
316,200 |
239,208 |
442,709 |
470,306 |
||
Net attrib.to shareholders contg. businesses |
(109,137) |
96,466 |
247,784 |
(66,400) |
186,367 |
442,709 |
470,306 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
157.4 |
160.8 |
250.7 |
247.8 |
246.9 |
245.1 |
244.9 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
57.20 |
185.34 |
204.95 |
127.59 |
96.90 |
180.66 |
192.08 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
56.95 |
181.51 |
203.21 |
125.32 |
96.90 |
178.10 |
189.36 |
EPS - (IFRS) ($) |
|
|
(0.72) |
0.60 |
0.99 |
(0.23) |
0.01 |
1.81 |
1.92 |
Dividend per share (c) |
0 |
37 |
56 |
81 |
82 |
107 |
150 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
35.0 |
42.5 |
42.3 |
35.9 |
49.6 |
53.3 |
53.1 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
45.4 |
49.3 |
52.3 |
50.3 |
50.3 |
53.3 |
53.1 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
20.7 |
29.6 |
29.6 |
25.7 |
29.2 |
34.5 |
33.2 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
2,330,033 |
5,093,409 |
5,404,900 |
4,968,300 |
5,368,641 |
5,449,657 |
5,292,459 |
Intangible Assets |
5,498 |
24,851 |
10,000 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Tangible Assets |
2,254,476 |
3,968,746 |
4,980,200 |
4,517,000 |
4,917,341 |
5,120,357 |
4,963,159 |
||
Other* |
70,059 |
1,099,812 |
414,700 |
451,300 |
451,300 |
329,300 |
329,300 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
652,871 |
1,168,382 |
1,366,000 |
1,446,400 |
1,065,880 |
1,222,518 |
1,532,392 |
Stocks |
266,451 |
305,075 |
311,300 |
320,700 |
261,702 |
272,090 |
289,245 |
||
Debtors |
83,836 |
104,545 |
139,900 |
163,400 |
228,578 |
235,408 |
246,689 |
||
Cash |
288,186 |
751,563 |
906,200 |
951,100 |
517,000 |
656,420 |
937,858 |
||
Other |
14,398 |
7,199 |
8,600 |
11,200 |
58,600 |
58,600 |
58,600 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(354,931) |
(661,171) |
(567,100) |
(1,045,600) |
(708,885) |
(735,294) |
(762,966) |
Creditors |
(312,427) |
(612,862) |
(552,700) |
(690,800) |
(684,085) |
(710,494) |
(738,166) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(42,504) |
(48,309) |
(14,400) |
(354,800) |
(24,800) |
(24,800) |
(24,800) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(963,736) |
(1,647,799) |
(1,818,100) |
(1,281,800) |
(1,807,500) |
(1,807,500) |
(1,807,500) |
Long term borrowings |
(770,902) |
(1,026,337) |
(878,600) |
(517,000) |
(1,089,000) |
(1,089,000) |
(1,089,000) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(192,834) |
(621,462) |
(939,500) |
(764,800) |
(718,500) |
(718,500) |
(718,500) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
1,664,237 |
3,952,821 |
4,385,700 |
4,087,300 |
3,918,136 |
4,129,382 |
4,254,384 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
628,617 |
1,046,370 |
1,415,306 |
1,211,200 |
839,860 |
1,169,621 |
1,227,226 |
Net Interest |
(35,413) |
(53,774) |
(26,900) |
(66,200) |
(100,750) |
(59,680) |
(45,738) |
||
Tax |
(109,494) |
(186,332) |
(205,573) |
(189,200) |
(238,219) |
(155,619) |
(145,909) |
||
Capex |
(401,227) |
(335,599) |
(587,496) |
(534,300) |
(903,200) |
(612,000) |
(302,167) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
3,654 |
(19,000) |
(4,700) |
12,900 |
36,100 |
122,000 |
0 |
||
Financing |
2,402 |
100,000 |
(89,400) |
(101,200) |
(60,736) |
(8,558) |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(6,154) |
(88,288) |
(159,800) |
(223,800) |
(249,154) |
(316,344) |
(451,975) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
82,385 |
463,377 |
341,437 |
109,400 |
(676,100) |
139,420 |
281,437 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash)** |
|
|
518,607 |
525,220 |
323,083 |
(13,200) |
(79,300) |
596,800 |
457,380 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(88,998) |
(261,240) |
(5,154) |
(43,300) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash)** |
|
|
525,220 |
323,083 |
(13,200) |
(79,300) |
596,800 |
457,380 |
175,942 |
Source: Company sources, Edison Investment Research. Note: Presented on a pro forma basis with SEMAFO fully consolidated (income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement) from FY18 balance sheet and Teranga from FY20 balance sheet. EPS normalised from FY18 to reflect continuing business only. *Includes restricted cash and investments. **Excludes restricted cash.
|
|
Research: TMT
CLIQ Digital’s FY23 trading update showed sales coming in below both management’s guidance and our forecasts, although EBITDA was in line. Management noted a slower ramp-up in revenue than was expected despite higher marketing expenditure to drive new customers to the platform. Expansion into new markets and the launch of its low-cost German platform, cliq.de, demonstrate good operational progress made in FY23. Despite the revenue miss, CLIQ delivered good year-on-year growth in revenue and EBITDA, driven by continued development of its bundled content offering and growing marketing expenditure. CLIQ’s strong cash generation resulted in an improved net cash position at end-FY23 of €16m. We will update our forecasts following the publication of the annual report, scheduled for 22 February, at which point management will also provide its outlook for FY24.