Gold has recently surged above $2,700/oz, revisiting the previous record high of $2,789 in October 2024. This note presents a structured framework for understanding the current gold price trajectory, built on three core pillars: fundamental monetary relationships, cyclical patterns in real interest rates and structural shifts in central bank behaviour. Using this framework, we see the potential for the gold price to reach $3,300–4,500/oz, with risks skewed to the upside.

ICL Group is a global specialties-driven minerals company. It targets leadership in the bromine, phosphate and fertiliser markets, and is recognised as having a highly competitive potash business. It was founded more than 100 years ago, has over 12,000 employees worldwide, a market cap of around $6.3bn and last year reported revenues of $7.5bn. If its latest profits make ICL sound potentially attractive – $1.8bn in adjusted EBITDA with a 4.7% dividend yield – there are seven more things Edison believes every investor needs to know about the dual-listed stock.

Beyond doom and gloom, better looms