Last close As at 05/08/2026
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Market capitalisation
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YouGov |
Good H117 progress |
Half-year update |
Media |
31 January 2017 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
YouGov is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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YouGov’s positive H117 update shows trading ahead of market expectations, resulting from good progress from data products and services and growth in the custom research margin. There has also been some currency benefit. For now, we have maintained our implied H217 numbers, meaning that our FY17e revenue forecast increases 2% and changes to the mix move our PBT estimate up 4%. FY18e numbers are edged up slightly. At 15.7x current year EV/EBITDA, the valuation is towards the top of the range of global peers (7.5x to 17.5x), which is a reflection of the strong earnings growth and cash generation.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
07/15 |
76.1 |
9.1 |
6.7 |
1.0 |
34.2 |
0.4 |
07/16 |
88.2 |
13.3 |
8.5 |
1.4 |
27.0 |
0.6 |
07/17e |
103.0 |
14.6 |
10.2 |
1.6 |
22.5 |
0.7 |
07/18e |
113.5 |
16.5 |
11.3 |
1.8 |
20.3 |
0.8 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Strong H117 performance
There has been good underlying performance across data products and services in the period, with additional benefit from currency (BrandIndex generates around 60% of its revenues in the US). Both BrandIndex and the newer YouGov Profiles product continue to attract new clients globally. Omnibus, which makes up the bulk of data services’ revenues, has grown in line with expectations, while custom research continues to improve its margin as planned. It has a growing element of tracking studies – 12% of FY16 segmental revenues. For the time being, we maintain our implied second-half numbers for the data products and services. The group is second-half weighted, so this is a comparatively cautious stance. Visibility for both H217 and FY18 will be better by the publication of the interim results to end January on 27 March and there may be further scope for raising forecasts then.
Cash flowing
Net cash at end January was reported at £13m and our forecast for end July now stands just short of £19m. Cash conversion for the group typically runs at between 80% and 120%, and in FY16 it was even stronger at 130%. The main focus is on the organic growth, but the group obviously has the firepower to take advantage of acquisition opportunities. Any deals struck would need to be relevant to the strategy, for example through adding better or new data sources, which limits the number of potential opportunities.
Valuation: Reflecting superior growth
The share price has risen 55% from a year ago (after a high of 258p in mid-December) as the market has recognised that the group’s clear and consistent strategy is translating into profits and, at least as importantly, into cash. With much of the traditional MR sector still struggling with legacy infrastructures, it is unsurprising that YouGov’s rating is towards the top of the ranking of global peers, reflecting its much higher CAGR in earnings and progressive dividend stream.
Financial summary
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£000s |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017e |
2018e |
||
Year end 31 July |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
67,375 |
76,110 |
88,202 |
103,000 |
113,500 |
Cost of Sales |
(15,812) |
(17,472) |
(19,476) |
(22,660) |
(24,970) |
||
Gross Profit |
51,564 |
58,638 |
68,726 |
80,340 |
88,530 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
8,020 |
9,273 |
11,620 |
14,103 |
15,954 |
Operating Profit (before GW, except and share-based payments) |
7,936 |
9,239 |
12,055 |
14,500 |
16,351 |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
(3,965) |
(4,633) |
(5,478) |
(5,000) |
(5,000) |
||
Share based payments |
(547) |
(669) |
(1,138) |
(1,100) |
(1,100) |
||
Exceptionals |
(2,385) |
(1,072) |
(1,108) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(14) |
41 |
(4) |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
1,025 |
2,906 |
4,327 |
8,400 |
10,251 |
||
Net Interest |
(292) |
(220) |
1,199 |
100 |
149 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
7,630 |
9,060 |
13,250 |
14,600 |
16,500 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
733 |
2,686 |
5,526 |
8,500 |
10,400 |
Tax |
(316) |
580 |
(2,111) |
(3,577) |
(4,373) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
7,314 |
9,640 |
11,139 |
11,023 |
12,128 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
417 |
3,266 |
3,415 |
4,923 |
5,826 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
98.0 |
101.0 |
103.9 |
104.6 |
104.6 |
||
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) |
|
|
5.8 |
6.7 |
8.5 |
10.2 |
11.3 |
EPS - FRS 3 (p) |
|
|
0.4 |
3.2 |
3.3 |
4.7 |
5.5 |
Dividend per share (p) |
0.8 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
76.5 |
77.0 |
77.9 |
78.0 |
78.0 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
11.9 |
12.2 |
13.2 |
13.7 |
14.1 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except & share-based payments) (%) |
11.0 |
11.3 |
12.4 |
13.0 |
13.4 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
52,259 |
53,726 |
62,366 |
62,366 |
62,366 |
Intangible Assets |
46,650 |
46,145 |
53,140 |
53,140 |
53,140 |
||
Tangible Assets |
5,609 |
7,377 |
8,984 |
8,984 |
8,984 |
||
Investments |
0 |
204 |
242 |
242 |
242 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
29,873 |
33,329 |
45,339 |
53,768 |
62,770 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
21,687 |
22,507 |
28,643 |
33,783 |
37,227 |
||
Cash |
7,429 |
10,017 |
15,553 |
18,842 |
24,400 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(21,480) |
(22,983) |
(27,823) |
(32,171) |
(35,450) |
Creditors |
(21,296) |
(22,983) |
(27,823) |
(32,171) |
(35,450) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(184) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(2,700) |
(2,449) |
(5,793) |
(3,000) |
(3,000) |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(2,700) |
(2,449) |
(5,793) |
(3,000) |
(3,000) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
57,952 |
61,623 |
74,089 |
80,963 |
86,686 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
8,600 |
10,091 |
14,139 |
14,500 |
16,700 |
Net Interest |
(295) |
(233) |
11 |
100 |
149 |
||
Tax |
(287) |
(730) |
(2,365) |
(3,969) |
(3,776) |
||
Capex |
(5,759) |
(5,754) |
(6,076) |
(5,750) |
(5,750) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(1,003) |
(470) |
(171) |
(36) |
0 |
||
Financing |
(101) |
454 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(566) |
(773) |
(1,028) |
(1,556) |
(1,765) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
589 |
2,585 |
4,526 |
3,289 |
5,558 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(6,656) |
(7,245) |
(10,017) |
(15,553) |
(18,842) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
187 |
1,010 |
(0) |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(7,245) |
(10,017) |
(15,553) |
(18,842) |
(24,400) |
Source: YouGov accounts, Edison Investment Research
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