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Research: Healthcare
Photocure announced results for Q218 with 16% revenue growth compared to Q217. Revenue growth accelerated in the US, where Hexvix/Cysview sales increased 47% (up 56% on a constant currency basis) over Q217 compared to 27% (up 36% on a constant-currency basis) growth last quarter. This was driven mainly by improved reimbursement and a higher installed base of blue light cystoscopes (BLCs).
Written by
Photocure |
US growth accelerating |
Financial update |
Pharma & biotech |
16 August 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Photocure is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Photocure announced results for Q218 with 16% revenue growth compared to Q217. Revenue growth accelerated in the US, where Hexvix/Cysview sales increased 47% (up 56% on a constant currency basis) over Q217 compared to 27% (up 36% on a constant-currency basis) growth last quarter. This was driven mainly by improved reimbursement and a higher installed base of blue light cystoscopes (BLCs).
Year end |
Revenue (NOKm) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/16 |
143.6 |
12.8 |
1.64 |
0.0 |
26.2 |
N/A |
12/17 |
150.9 |
(41.6) |
(1.61) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/18e |
201.5 |
(14.7) |
(0.40) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/19e |
288.8 |
61.0 |
2.04 |
0.0 |
21.1 |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
US driving growth
Q218 sales in the US increased 47% (up 56% on a constant currency basis) to NOK16.1m, driven mainly by volume growth (which was helped by improved reimbursement) and price increases. Unit sales increased 49% and 17 additional units (15 rigid and two flexible) were installed over the quarter (the largest quarterly increase since the initial launch; the previous record had been nine, which was recorded last quarter), bringing the total installed base to 130, up from 104 at the beginning of 2018.
Mid-May launch in the surveillance setting
In mid-February, the FDA approved an expanded indication for Cysview, which includes the surveillance setting. Hexvix/Cysview sales may have significant upside if the product successfully expands into the US bladder cancer surveillance market, which has an estimated 1.2–1.4m procedures per year, compared to its original market of 325,000 TURBT procedures. The commercial launch officially began in mid-May, so the impact should be magnified over the remainder of the year.
Nordic revenue decline due to inventory
Nordic revenue fell 8% to NOK10.8m, although in-market unit sales increased 1%. The decline was due to distributors reducing their inventory following the previously announced inventory increase in Q118.
Valuation: NOK954m or NOK44 per share
We have increased our valuation from NOK880m or NOK41 per basic share to NOK954m or NOK44 per basic share, mainly due to rolling forward our NPV and increasing some of our longer-term Hexvix/Cysview forecasts (although peak sales are the same), which was mitigated by a lower cash balance. We have increased our 2018 revenue estimate slightly and are maintaining our estimates for 2019. We expect to update them as we have more information on the progress of the surveillance market launch. With NOK98m in cash, Photocure should have enough capital to meet its needs, especially after recent cost control measures.
Q218 results
Photocure reported revenue of NOK45.7m for Q218, representing 16% growth over Q217 and 10% growth sequentially. Hexvix/Cysview revenues were up 13%. Sales in the US continued to be strong, up 47% compared to Q217. Although there was a negative currency impact, on a constant currency basis, sales were up 56% compared to last year. Sequentially, sales in the US were up 27% for the quarter and had been up 25% sequentially in the previous quarter. End-user unit sales were also strong, growing 49% for the quarter compared to last year, driven by a record quarterly increase in the number of permanent blue light cystoscopes installed (currently 130, up from 104 at the beginning of the year).
Revenues in the Nordic region decreased 8% to NOK10.8m after increasing 24% in Q118. The decline was due to inventory at distributors being reduced after an inventory increase in the first quarter. End-user unit sales in the region were up 1% compared to Q217. For the first half of the year, Nordic revenues are up 7% compared to H117, although end-user unit sales are down 4% due to large hospital deliveries in Denmark at the end of 2017.
Results in partnered areas increased 4% in the quarter to NOK15.6m and were down 1% on a sequential quarter basis. Reported revenues were negatively affected by a NOK1.2m accounting adjustment related to IFRS 15. End-user unit sales decreased 3% due to weakness in the French and German markets.
SG&A for Q2 was lower sequentially at NOK37.8m (compared to NOK39.8m last quarter and NOK41.4m in Q4), although is still up 3% compared to the same quarter last year. SG&A was affected by Photocure streamlining the organization outside of the commercial franchise. This resulted in a separate restructuring charge of NOK13.1m, NOK7.0m of which is related to the departure of its CEO, who has been replaced on an interim basis by the CFO Erik Dahl. R&D expenses remained under control at NOK2.4m as the regulatory work surrounding FDA approval for the surveillance market has now been completed.
Valuation
We have increased our valuation from NOK880m or NOK41 per basic share to NOK954m or NOK44 per basic share, mainly due to rolling forward our NPV and increasing some of our longer-term Hexvix/Cysview forecasts (although peak sales are the same). This increase was mitigated by a lower cash balance. We may update the valuation once the company provides an update on the sales trajectory in the recently launched surveillance setting, as well as changes to spending associated with increased marketing and any developments with regard to the strategic alternative reviews for Visonac and Cevira (if there are no developments in the next quarter or two we may lower our probabilities of success for these programmes).
Exhibit 1: Photocure valuation
Product |
Main Indication |
Status |
Probability of commercialisation |
Launch year |
Peak sales (NOKm) |
Patent protection |
Economics |
rNPV (NOKm) |
Hexvix/Cysview |
Bladder cancer detection |
Market |
100% |
Launched |
344 |
2019-20 |
Fully owned - US and Nordics, Partner with Ipsen in EU (35% royalty) |
615 |
Cevira |
HPV-related diseases |
Phase III |
20% |
2021 |
2,218 |
2030 |
17.5% |
129 |
Visonac |
Acne |
Phase III |
20% |
2021 |
2,091 |
2028 |
17.5% |
113 |
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
856 |
Cash and cash equivalents (Q218) |
98 |
|||||||
Total firm value |
954 |
|||||||
Total basic shares (m) |
21.6 |
|||||||
Value per basic share (NOK) |
44 |
|||||||
Options (Q218, m) |
0.0 |
|||||||
Total number of shares (m) |
21.6 |
|||||||
Diluted value per share (NOK) |
44 |
|||||||
Source: Edison Investment Research
Financials
We have increased our 2018 revenue estimate slightly as Q2 revenues came in higher than expected, although we are maintaining our estimate for 2019 pending additional updates on the launch. We have lowered our R&D estimates by NOK0.3m for 2018 and 2019 as the company reported slightly lower R&D expenses than expected. Much of the spending in this category appears to be complete following the surveillance market approval. We have also reduced our SG&A estimates for 2018 by NOK7.2m and for 2019 by NOK7.5m due to much lower than expected SG&A expenses following the streamlining of the non-commercial organization. However, we continue to expect SG&A to grow in 2018 due to the company’s increased investment in the US market. The company ended Q218 with NOK98m in cash, and we do not expect it to require further financing as we continue to expect profitability in 2019.
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
NOK'000s |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
|||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
|||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
|
143,627 |
150,911 |
201,459 |
288,758 |
Cost of Sales |
(9,337) |
(12,011) |
(16,133) |
(20,266) |
|||
Gross Profit |
134,291 |
138,900 |
185,326 |
268,493 |
|||
Sales, General and Administrative Expenses |
(124,647) |
(149,098) |
(177,374) |
(184,469) |
|||
Research and Development Expense |
(17,652) |
(22,896) |
(9,795) |
(10,187) |
|||
EBITDA |
|
|
|
(8,008) |
(33,094) |
(1,844) |
73,836 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
(15,861) |
(45,202) |
(14,846) |
60,834 |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
(13,133) |
0 |
|||
Operating Profit |
(15,861) |
(45,202) |
(27,979) |
60,834 |
|||
Net Interest |
28,640 |
3,622 |
140 |
145 |
|||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
|
12,779 |
(41,580) |
(14,707) |
60,979 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
|
12,779 |
(41,580) |
(27,840) |
60,979 |
Tax |
22,530 |
6,883 |
6,011 |
(16,464) |
|||
Deferred tax |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
|||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
35,309 |
(34,697) |
(8,696) |
44,515 |
|||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
35,309 |
(34,697) |
(21,829) |
44,515 |
|||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
21.5 |
21.6 |
21.6 |
21.8 |
|||
EPS - normalised (ore) |
|
|
|
164 |
(161) |
(40) |
204 |
EPS - FRS 3 (ore) |
|
|
|
164 |
(161) |
(101) |
204 |
Dividend per share (ore) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
|
74,070 |
87,486 |
83,557 |
73,113 |
Intangible Assets |
26,390 |
33,315 |
21,440 |
8,004 |
|||
Tangible Assets |
1,660 |
1,268 |
3,880 |
6,873 |
|||
Other |
46,020 |
52,903 |
58,236 |
58,236 |
|||
Current Assets |
|
|
|
212,268 |
175,613 |
150,578 |
206,087 |
Stocks |
17,955 |
19,552 |
23,723 |
33,335 |
|||
Debtors |
12,323 |
14,573 |
20,808 |
28,876 |
|||
Cash |
169,239 |
129,368 |
92,268 |
130,097 |
|||
Other |
12,750 |
12,119 |
13,779 |
13,779 |
|||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
|
(30,637) |
(40,267) |
(41,330) |
(41,330) |
Creditors |
(30,637) |
(40,267) |
(41,330) |
(41,330) |
|||
Short term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
|
(3,758) |
(4,752) |
(4,998) |
(5,498) |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Other long term liabilities |
(3,758) |
(4,752) |
(4,998) |
(5,498) |
|||
Net Assets |
|
|
|
251,943 |
218,079 |
187,806 |
232,372 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
|
19,193 |
(23,593) |
(34,054) |
40,388 |
Net Interest |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Capex |
(21,715) |
(18,588) |
(4,017) |
(4,142) |
|||
Acquisitions/disposals |
33,213 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Financing |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Dividends |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Other |
2,394 |
2,310 |
971 |
1,583 |
|||
Net Cash Flow |
33,085 |
(39,871) |
(37,100) |
37,829 |
|||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
|
(134,026) |
(169,239) |
(129,368) |
(92,268) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Exchange rate movements |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Other |
2129 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
|
(169,239) |
(129,368) |
(92,268) |
(130,097) |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Takung’s H118 results show good progress in the number of new listings, with accompanying fees up 137% on the comparative period. Patterns in commission revenue reflect the previously announced shift in emphasis towards the retail market. In light of the disruption to online transactions in China as a result of contagion from problems in peer-to-peer lending, management has decided to pause new listings for Q3 and possibly beyond, with some associated internal restructuring. We have reduced our FY18 and FY19 forecasts accordingly. The group had $10.2m of net cash at the period end, giving it plenty of resource to ride out short-term volatility.