Takung’s H118 results show good progress in the number of new listings, with accompanying fees up 137% on the comparative period. Patterns in commission revenue reflect the previously announced shift in emphasis towards the retail market. In light of the disruption to online transactions in China as a result of contagion from problems in peer-to-peer lending, management has decided to pause new listings for Q3 and possibly beyond, with some associated internal restructuring. We have reduced our FY18 and FY19 forecasts accordingly. The group had $10.2m of net cash at the period end, giving it plenty of resource to ride out short-term volatility.
Takung Art |
Pausing new listings |
Q2 results |
Retail |
16 August 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Takung Art is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Takung’s H118 results show good progress in the number of new listings, with accompanying fees up 137% on the comparative period. Patterns in commission revenue reflect the previously announced shift in emphasis towards the retail market. In light of the disruption to online transactions in China as a result of contagion from problems in peer-to-peer lending, management has decided to pause new listings for Q3 and possibly beyond, with some associated internal restructuring. We have reduced our FY18 and FY19 forecasts accordingly. The group had $10.2m of net cash at the period end, giving it plenty of resource to ride out short-term volatility.
Year end |
Revenue ($m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
EV/EBITDA (x) |
12/16 |
19.1 |
9.5 |
0.66 |
0.00 |
2.0 |
N/A |
0.3 |
12/17 |
12.9 |
(1.1) |
(0.15) |
0.00 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
12/18e** |
12.5 |
(2.8) |
(0.18) |
0.00 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
12/19e** |
13.5 |
(1.3) |
(0.09) |
0.00 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **Revenues adjusted for change in accounting.
Reining in
The group has a strong pipeline of potential new listings, but is reluctant to launch them into such an uncertain market for both primary and secondary trading. Customer deposits, a good lead indicator for trading activity on the platform, have been drifting in recent weeks as confidence in online transactions in China and investor sentiment has deteriorated. Pulling the short-term listing programme is a sensible precaution and should help support trading in the existing portfolios. Setting listing fee revenue to zero for Q318 and with a modest Q418 contribution, our FY18 revenue forecast reduces from $18.9m to $12.5m and FY19 from $23.3m to $13.5m. This moves the group from a forecast profit to a loss for both years. With cash of $10.2m at the half year and a programme to reduce general and administrative costs by 10%, our modelling indicates comfortable levels of funding to see the group through.
Growing e-commerce ambitions
Takung’s main business activity relates to its platform for trading fractionalised ownerships (see Initiation note). More recently (Q417) it has launched a more conventional e-commerce platform focusing on Chinese art and collectibles. The response has been very encouraging, with more than 13,000 registered users and over 5,000 listings of artworks. Takung is now evaluating the feasibility for a launch in the US.
Valuation: Reflecting uncertainty
The move into loss and the degree of uncertainty over the timing of any resumption of listing activity makes valuation very subjective. On an EV/revenue basis other art businesses and online retail/gaming and trading platforms trade on 3.5x, suggesting that Takung’s shares could trade markedly higher. A DCF on our revised numbers indicates a value of $1.90 (from $3.66 before), still well ahead of the current level.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
$'000s |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
||
31-December |
GAAP |
GAAP |
GAAP |
GAAP |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
19,143 |
12,922 |
12,500 |
13,500 |
Cost of Sales |
(1,129) |
(1,247) |
(3,750) |
(4,050) |
||
Gross Profit |
18,014 |
11,675 |
8,750 |
9,450 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
9,779 |
(338) |
(1,974) |
(558) |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
9,255 |
(1,081) |
(2,974) |
(1,558) |
|
Share-based payments |
(813) |
(751) |
(250) |
(250) |
||
Reported operating profit |
8,443 |
(1,832) |
(3,224) |
(1,808) |
||
Net Interest |
(202) |
(601) |
(200) |
(150) |
||
Other income |
416 |
577 |
421 |
409 |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
9,469 |
(1,104) |
(2,753) |
(1,299) |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
8,140 |
(719) |
(3,003) |
(1,549) |
Reported tax |
(1,769) |
(343) |
1,208 |
387 |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
7,411 |
(1,631) |
(2,066) |
(974) |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
6,371 |
(1,062) |
(1,795) |
(1,162) |
||
Minority interests |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
FX translation adjustment |
(1,082) |
763 |
(1,829) |
0 |
||
Discontinued operations |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
6,329 |
(868) |
(3,895) |
(974) |
||
Net income (reported) |
5,289 |
(298) |
(3,624) |
(1,162) |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
10,641 |
11,078 |
11,206 |
11,223 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
69.64 |
(14.72) |
(18.44) |
(8.68) |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
65.53 |
(14.72) |
(18.41) |
(8.68) |
EPS - basic reported ($) |
|
|
59.87 |
(9.58) |
(32.34) |
(10.35) |
Dividend per share (c) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
69 |
(32) |
(3) |
8 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
94 |
90 |
70 |
70 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
51 |
(3) |
(16) |
(4) |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
48 |
(8) |
(24) |
(12) |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
2,696 |
3,262 |
3,262 |
3,262 |
Intangible Assets |
21 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
||
Tangible Assets |
2,065 |
2,191 |
2,191 |
2,191 |
||
Investments & other |
610 |
1,049 |
1,049 |
1,049 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
45,540 |
49,567 |
42,666 |
43,831 |
Restricted cash |
21,743 |
25,274 |
24,448 |
26,403 |
||
Debtors |
3,059 |
2,292 |
2,217 |
2,394 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
13,395 |
11,867 |
6,345 |
5,182 |
||
Loan Receivables/Other |
7,342 |
10,134 |
9,656 |
9,852 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
30,603 |
34,911 |
34,037 |
35,993 |
Creditors |
22,712 |
26,906 |
26,032 |
27,987 |
||
Tax and social security |
550 |
313 |
313 |
313 |
||
Short term borrowings |
6,309 |
7,209 |
7,209 |
7,209 |
||
Other |
1,032 |
484 |
484 |
484 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
17,633 |
17,918 |
11,891 |
11,101 |
Minority interests |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
17,633 |
17,918 |
11,891 |
11,101 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
9,779 |
(338) |
(1,974) |
(558) |
||
Working capital |
(3,591) |
(4,001) |
(168) |
(252) |
||
Exceptional & other |
1,896 |
4,381 |
252 |
409 |
||
Tax |
(3,025) |
(1,830) |
387 |
387 |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
5,059 |
(1,789) |
(1,503) |
(13) |
Capex |
(1,412) |
(814) |
(1,000) |
(1,000) |
||
Loan payables/ loan receivables |
(66) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net interest |
(435) |
(526) |
(200) |
(150) |
||
Equity financing |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
1,032 |
1,000 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
4,178 |
(2,129) |
(2,703) |
(1,163) |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(10,769) |
(13,461) |
(12,492) |
(8,174) |
FX |
(1,552) |
1,360 |
(990) |
0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
66 |
(199) |
(625) |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(13,461) |
(12,492) |
(8,174) |
(7,011) |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Healthcare
PDL reported Q218 revenues of $46.6m, with Noden product revenue of $25.9m (up 45.1% compared to Q118). Almost all of that growth came from increased sales in Asia thanks to the launch in Japan by distribution partner Orphan Pacific. Noden product revenue in the US was down slightly (1%) in the quarter compared to Q118, and the future of Tekturna in the US is now in question following a settlement agreement with Anchen Pharmaceuticals, which would allow it to enter with a generic in the US after March 1, 2019. Subsequently, the company reported a $152.3m impairment of its Noden intangible asset with the estimated fair value now at $40.1m.