Last close As at 05/08/2026
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Market capitalisation
USD226m
Research: Healthcare
SIGA Technologies announced that the US Department of Health and Human Services has exercised its procurement options for oral and intravenous (IV) TPOXX, worth around $113m and $25m respectively, for the US national stockpile under the BARDA contract. This a key catalyst for SIGA for FY23 as continued US stockpile renewals are core drivers of the company’s business. SIGA aims for the delivery of oral TPOXX in FY23 and the new IV TPOXX order in FY24 (after meeting order obligations for its previous IV TPOXX order exercised in August 2022, worth $26m). We expect the company’s FY23 and FY24 revenues to continue to be driven by replenishing US government stockpiles and supplemented by incremental international orders. The next growth catalyst for SIGA, in our opinion, could be either additional international orders or an update on the next US government contract, including the possibility of a stockpile expansion.
SIGA Technologies |
US exercised (stockpile) options are key catalysts |
TPOXX update |
Pharma and biotech |
28 July 2023 |
Share price performance
Business description
Analysts
SIGA Technologies is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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SIGA Technologies announced that the US Department of Health and Human Services has exercised its procurement options for oral and intravenous (IV) TPOXX, worth around $113m and $25m respectively, for the US national stockpile under the BARDA contract. This a key catalyst for SIGA for FY23 as continued US stockpile renewals are core drivers of the company’s business. SIGA aims for the delivery of oral TPOXX in FY23 and the new IV TPOXX order in FY24 (after meeting order obligations for its previous IV TPOXX order exercised in August 2022, worth $26m). We expect the company’s FY23 and FY24 revenues to continue to be driven by replenishing US government stockpiles and supplemented by incremental international orders. The next growth catalyst for SIGA, in our opinion, could be either additional international orders or an update on the next US government contract, including the possibility of a stockpile expansion.
Year end |
Revenue |
EBITDA* (US$m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
P/E |
Net cash* |
12/21 |
133.7 |
89.7 |
89.1 |
0.92 |
5.5 |
103.1 |
12/22 |
110.8 |
44.3 |
42.7 |
0.45 |
11.3 |
98.8 |
12/23e |
175.2 |
97.2 |
96.7 |
1.05 |
4.8 |
110.7 |
12/24e |
181.0 |
102.3 |
101.8 |
1.16 |
4.3 |
164.5 |
Note: *EBITDA, PBT and EPS (diluted) are normalized, excluding amortization of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
In line with management’s FY23 guidance, SIGA has secured around $113m in procurement orders under the BARDA 19C contract. Based on upcoming expirations in the US strategic national stockpile, we expect SIGA’s topline performance to be driven by domestic deliveries under BARDA contracts for oral TPOXX. We estimate oral TPOXX deliveries for BARDA of $112.5m each in FY23 and FY24. Additionally, SIGA received a second IV TPOXX order, worth $25m, under the BARDA contract, which is likely to be delivered in FY24. As a reminder, BARDA had exercised its first procurement option for IV TPOXX (worth $26m) in August 2022, which is expected to start deliveries in FY23. We note that IV TPOXX margins (40%) are lower than oral (85%) and therefore, SIGA’s focus should be on the oral delivery.
Apart from domestic orders in FY23, we anticipate additional upside from international oral TPOXX orders of around $8m (including $1m of oral TPOXX delivered in April 2023) and $7m in pending order deliveries for contracts signed in FY22 (to be delivered by July 2023). SIGA has delivered $5.1m of oral TPOXX in Q123 of the $10.7m contract from the US Department of Defense (DoD), signed in September 2022. We expect the pending $5.5m of oral TPOXX to be delivered in FY23 as the US DoD exercised an option for the remaining orders in March 2023.
While oral and IV TPOXX deliveries to the US strategic national stockpile and international expansion remain core growth areas for SIGA, the upcoming readout data from the PEP immunogenicity and safety trials is a potential growth catalyst, which, if favourable, could support the expansion of a strategic stockpile. Also, a positive readout should lead to a supplementary new drug application by early 2024, followed by the possible initiation of PEP sales in 2025.
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Research: Financials
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