SIGA Technologies (NASDAQ: SIGA)

Currency in USD

Last close As at 04/12/2023


0.35 (6.45%)

Market capitalisation


SIGA Technologies is a commercial-stage health security company focused on the treatment of smallpox and other orthopoxvirus. It has contracts with both the US and Canadian governments for TPOXX, its treatment for smallpox, and is expanding internationally.

With c 64,000 global cases and 23,000 cases in the United States, mpox remains a growing concern for governments and health agencies. SIGA’s antiviral product TPOXX is the leading therapeutic, originally designed to treat smallpox. TPOXX was approved by the US FDA for smallpox and is now available to treat mpox through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s expanded access investigational new drug protocol. Currently, it is the only allowed therapy for all orthopoxvirus pathogens, including mpox, approved in both the UK (July 2022) and the EU (January 2022).

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Equity Analyst

Soo Romanoff

Soo Romanoff

Managing Director - Head of Content, Healthcare

Nidhi Singh

Nidhi Singh


Arron Aatkar

Associate analyst

Key Management

  • Daniel Luckshire

    Executive VP and CFO

  • Phillip Gomez


Balance Sheet

Forecast net cash (US$m)


Forecast gearing ratio (%)


Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual 7.2 13.1 (41.8)
Relative (3.0) 11.8 (49.4)
52 week high/low US$9.2/US$4.3


SIGA recapped several key developments in its Q3 update, signalling strong top-line momentum going into Q423. Most notably, the recent $18m procurement deal with the European Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA) has surprised to the upside, with more value to be unlocked, in our opinion. With upcoming BARDA (oral and IV TPOXX), Department of Defense (DoD) and HERA deliveries, Q423 will likely be a busy quarter for SIGA. We have increased our FY23 product revenue estimates to c $164m ($155m previously) to reflect the HERA orders, although this has been offset by lower R&D revenue estimates ($8.9m vs $20.5m previously) following the receipt of the final payment under the PEP research contract with the DoD (in Q323). Management continues to target the PEP regulatory submission in 2024 (despite undertaking a trial data reanalysis) and we view this as a next significant milestone for SIGA. Incorporating the results and latest net cash figure, our valuation adjusts to $17.24/share ($17.46/share previously).

Y/E Dec Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2021A 133.7 89.6 89.2 90.75 6.0 35.4
2022A 110.8 43.2 43.7 45.56 11.9 9.5
2023E 172.6 98.8 101.8 109.63 5.0 6.3
2024E 177.3 99.1 102.1 114.84 4.7 5.2

Further insights



Healthcare Week 2023

Analyst of the week

Soo Romanoff

Soo Romanoff

Managing Director - Head of Content, Healthcare

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