Trifast
Written by
Trifast |
Estimates raised |
Pre-close update |
Industrial support services |
4 October 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next event
Analysts
Trifast is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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A positive trading statement confirms sound underlying progress, with a boost following the recent weakness of sterling. Forthcoming interim results should make good reading and we are lifting our FY17 estimates, fully justifying the recent forward move in the share price.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* (£m) |
EPS* (p) |
DPS (p) |
P/E (x) |
Yield (%) |
03/15 |
154.7 |
14.3 |
8.68 |
2.10 |
18.0 |
1.4 |
03/16 |
161.4 |
16.0 |
9.99 |
2.80 |
15.6 |
1.8 |
03/17e |
172.0 |
17.3 |
10.70 |
2.95 |
14.6 |
1.9 |
03/18e |
178.0 |
17.9 |
11.07 |
3.10 |
14.1 |
2.0 |
Note: * PBT and EPS are normalised and diluted, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Higher profits expected
The Trifast trading statement confirms sound trading with a boost to reflect the impact of the weakness of sterling following the result of the Brexit referendum. We believe that the performance in the UK and continental Europe will have benefited, in particular, from a number of increased schedules and new contracts in the automotive and domestic appliance sectors. In addition, the half-year will include a full contribution from last year’s German acquisition, Kuhlmann, adding at least £0.4m to pre-tax profits. Asian results will be mixed – last year’s challenges in Malaysia will take time to resolve but, elsewhere, trading should be in line with our estimates. Interim results, to be announced on 8 November, should beat our earlier estimates, with H1 revenue up by 8% to around £84m, while we now estimate H1 underlying pre-tax profits rising by at least 9% from last year’s £8.3m to £9.0m. This year’s potential exchange benefit was not fully incorporated in our FY target and we are lifting underlying pre-tax estimate by £0.4m to £17.3m. We do not propose to change our FY18 estimates at this stage.
Momentum to continue
The investment momentum continues. Manufacturing capacity has been broadened and increased in Malaysia, Taiwan and Italy, while the group’s European coverage has recently been extended by acquisitions in Italy and Germany and the planned move into Spain has been established. The strategy has not changed and involves extending the group’s share of business with its 50 major multinational customers and closer working across the regions. We continue to look ahead with confidence. Seasonal factors, plus €1.7m deferred consideration for Kuhlmann, suggest a small net cash outflow over the half-year. We now look for net debt of £14.1m at March 2017 (15% gearing). With estimated facilities of £50m, plus a £20m accordion facility, the group has funds for foreseeable needs and further strategic acquisitions.
Valuation: Good value
Trifast’s shares are up 14% since our report last June, following the FY16 figures. This is in line with leading UK-based global distributors; smaller groups reflect the more challenging market. The prospective CY16 P/E rating of c 14x is well below the c 22x average of the leaders, suggesting the shares offer good value.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£'000s |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017e |
2018e |
||
Year end 31 March |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
121,544 |
129,775 |
154,741 |
161,370 |
172,000 |
178,000 |
Cost of Sales |
(89,969) |
(93,809) |
(109,866) |
(113,366) |
(120,834) |
(125,049) |
||
Gross Profit |
31,575 |
35,966 |
44,875 |
48,004 |
51,166 |
52,951 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
9,226 |
10,798 |
16,491 |
18,150 |
19,800 |
20,400 |
Operating Profit (before GW and except.) |
|
|
7,971 |
9,696 |
15,274 |
16,793 |
18,200 |
18,700 |
Intangibles amortisation/impairments |
(331) |
(221) |
(551) |
(974) |
(1,100) |
(1,100) |
||
Exceptionals |
(389) |
0 |
(1,167) |
(264) |
0 |
0 |
||
Share based payments |
(91) |
(67) |
(741) |
(1,687) |
(1,200) |
(1,200) |
||
Operating Profit |
7,160 |
9,408 |
12,815 |
13,868 |
15,900 |
16,400 |
||
Net Interest |
(718) |
(534) |
(966) |
(791) |
(900) |
(800) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
7,253 |
9,162 |
14,308 |
16,002 |
17,300 |
17,900 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
6,442 |
8,874 |
11,849 |
13,077 |
15,000 |
15,600 |
Tax |
(1,734) |
(2,276) |
(3,455) |
(2,852) |
(4,400) |
(4,550) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
5,324 |
6,820 |
10,312 |
12,018 |
12,900 |
13,350 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
4,708 |
6,598 |
8,394 |
10,225 |
10,600 |
11,050 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
107.3 |
108.5 |
113.5 |
116.4 |
118.8 |
118.8 |
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EPS - normalised (p) contg businesses |
|
|
4.96 |
6.28 |
9.08 |
10.33 |
10.86 |
11.24 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) |
|
|
4.73 |
5.96 |
8.68 |
9.99 |
10.70 |
11.07 |
EPS - FRS 3 (p) |
|
|
4.39 |
6.08 |
7.39 |
8.79 |
8.92 |
9.30 |
Dividend per share (p) |
0.8 |
1.4 |
2.1 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
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Gross Margin (%) |
26.0% |
27.7% |
29.0% |
29.7% |
29.7% |
29.7% |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
7.6% |
8.3% |
10.7% |
11.2% |
11.5% |
11.5% |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
6.6% |
7.5% |
9.9% |
10.4% |
10.6% |
10.5% |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
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Fixed Assets |
|
|
32,692 |
30,044 |
49,057 |
57,595 |
57,695 |
57,395 |
Intangible Assets |
18,366 |
16,959 |
32,162 |
38,259 |
37,159 |
36,059 |
||
Tangible Assets |
13,360 |
11,828 |
15,623 |
17,171 |
18,371 |
19,171 |
||
Investment in associates |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Deferred tax assets |
966 |
1,257 |
1,272 |
2,165 |
2,165 |
2,165 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
68,437 |
73,774 |
92,735 |
100,438 |
107,894 |
113,078 |
Stocks |
30,439 |
30,574 |
37,418 |
39,438 |
44,036 |
47,572 |
||
Debtors |
27,248 |
27,665 |
39,864 |
43,386 |
47,244 |
49,892 |
||
Cash |
10,750 |
15,535 |
15,453 |
17,614 |
16,614 |
15,614 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(34,578) |
(37,903) |
(49,052) |
(52,813) |
(53,364) |
(49,638) |
Creditors |
(21,029) |
(24,678) |
(34,482) |
(33,030) |
(35,206) |
(36,434) |
||
Other creditors |
(2,020) |
(2,244) |
(2,225) |
(2,849) |
(3,160) |
(3,198) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(11,529) |
(10,981) |
(12,345) |
(16,934) |
(14,998) |
(10,007) |
||
Minority interests |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(6,129) |
(4,248) |
(21,060) |
(21,470) |
(20,670) |
(19,870) |
Long term borrowings |
(4,418) |
(2,524) |
(16,523) |
(16,675) |
(15,675) |
(14,675) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(1,711) |
(1,724) |
(4,537) |
(4,795) |
(4,995) |
(5,195) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
60,422 |
61,667 |
71,680 |
83,750 |
91,555 |
100,965 |
CASH FLOW |
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Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
7,872 |
11,825 |
6,767 |
15,873 |
14,563 |
16,487 |
Net Interest |
(718) |
(534) |
(966) |
(804) |
(900) |
(800) |
||
Tax |
(1,427) |
(1,809) |
(4,639) |
(3,080) |
(4,013) |
(4,513) |
||
Capex |
(851) |
(826) |
(1,389) |
(2,323) |
(2,800) |
(2,500) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(1,389) |
0 |
(16,240) |
(7,684) |
(1,450) |
0 |
||
Financing |
233 |
84 |
494 |
181 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(534) |
(867) |
(1,569) |
(2,440) |
(3,464) |
(3,683) |
||
Other |
27 |
(646) |
2,097 |
(2,303) |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
3,213 |
7,227 |
(15,445) |
(2,580) |
1,936 |
4,992 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
8,410 |
5,197 |
(2,030) |
13,415 |
15,995 |
14,059 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
5,197 |
(2,030) |
13,415 |
15,995 |
14,059 |
9,068 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
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SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner