SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner
SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner |
Harlex acquisition boosts SNP’s presence in UK |
Acquisition |
Software & comp services |
4 October 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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SNP has acquired an initial 90% shareholding in Harlex Management, which owns 100% of Harlex Consulting, based in London, UK. Harlex specialises in SAP data migration (essentially transformation) projects. The acquisition gives SNP a physical presence in the UK, and hence a stronger position to target and deliver new business in the UK. Activity remains very brisk at SNP and in September it won a record $10m+ contract to combine the IT landscapes of two US chemical companies (we assume Dow Chemical and DuPont) that are merging. Given SNP’s strong market position in software-based transformation projects, we believe the shares are attractive on c 19x our cash-adjusted FY18e EPS.
Year |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/14 |
30.5 |
(0.1) |
(13.9) |
13.0 |
N/A |
0.3 |
12/15 |
56.2 |
3.4 |
58.8 |
34.0 |
63.7 |
0.9 |
12/16e |
77.0 |
7.3 |
111.4 |
40.0 |
33.6 |
1.1 |
12/17e |
95.9 |
10.9 |
148.2 |
50.0 |
25.3 |
1.3 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Acquisition of Harlex Consulting
Founded in 2010, Harlex specialises in SAP data migration (or transformation) projects and related process consulting (including setting up SAP systems). Harlex is a gold service partner of SAP in the UK and was named in the 2016 Sunday Times Hiscox Tech Track 100 listing of Britain's fastest-growing private technology companies. The business has grown from two to 25 full-time employees in five years, including 22 consultants, and it also uses outside consultants. Its 25 customers include blue-chip names such as Sony Music, Thomson Reuters, Henderson and BAE. Harlex does not use a software methodology and in future its consultants will use SNP’s T-B. Previously, SNP has delivered UK projects from its offices in Germany, eg a Rolls-Royce carve out, and SNP also has UK partners (ie resellers). Harlex generated revenues of £4.83m (c €5.6m) in the year to September 2015. It is comfortably profitable with EBIT of £0.79m (for an EBIT margin of 16%). We estimate that SNP is paying around 1.1-1.2x revenues for Harlex.
Forecasts
We have increased our revenue forecasts by 2% in FY16 (three-month acquisition period) and by 8% in FY17 and FY18. Our EPS rises by 5%, 14% and 9% in the corresponding years. We now forecast the group to end FY16 with net cash of €20.5m (previously €26.3m); there are also other financial liabilities which we estimate at c €4.9m (mainly acquisition liabilities and a small pension deficit).
Valuation: Strong growth play in the ERP space
The stock trades on c 34x our FY16e EPS, falling to c 25x in FY17e and to c 20x in FY18e. Adjusted for the net cash, the ratings fall to c 31x in FY16e, c 24x in FY17e and c 19x in FY18e. We believe the ratings continue to look attractive given the forecast strong growth and continued margin recovery potential.
Forecasts
We forecast Harlex will generate revenues of €1.8m in FY16 (for the three-month period), €7.5m for the first full year in FY17 (ie, £6.5m) and €8.4m in FY18. We have assumed this is all in the professional services segment, but acknowledge it is likely there will be software sales as well going forward.
In all, our group revenue forecasts rise by 2% to €77.0m in FY16 (three-month acquisition period), by 8% to €95.9m in FY17 and by 8% to €108.5m in FY18. Our EPS forecasts rise by 4.6% in FY16, 13.9% in FY17 and 9.2% in FY18. SNP states that the cost for the 90% shareholding was in the “mid-single-digit million range” and we have assumed an initial payment of €6m, with another €0.7m payable on 1 October 2018. We note that sterling has fallen by c 13% against the euro since the Brexit vote, which was likely to have reduced the purchase price in euro terms. Hence, we forecast the group to end FY16 with net cash of €20.5m (previously €26.3m); this is prior to adjusting for c €4.9m of other financial liabilities (mainly acquisition liabilities and a small pension deficit).
Exhibit 1: Forecast changes
Old |
New |
Old |
New |
Old |
New |
||||
(€000s) |
2016e |
2016e |
% change |
2017e |
2017e |
% change |
2018e |
2018e |
% change |
Revenue |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Professional services |
64,316 |
66,116 |
3 |
76,019 |
83,494 |
10 |
86,442 |
94,889 |
10 |
Software licences |
8,062 |
8,062 |
0 |
8,868 |
8,868 |
0 |
9,755 |
9,755 |
0 |
Software maintenance |
2,800 |
2,800 |
0 |
3,500 |
3,500 |
0 |
3,850 |
3,850 |
0 |
Total software |
10,862 |
10,862 |
0 |
12,368 |
12,368 |
0 |
13,605 |
13,605 |
0 |
Group revenue |
75,179 |
76,979 |
2 |
88,387 |
95,862 |
8 |
100,047 |
108,494 |
8 |
Growth (%) |
33.7 |
36.9 |
|
17.6 |
24.5 |
|
13.2 |
13.2 |
|
Professional services contribution |
6,432 |
6,918 |
8 |
7,982 |
10,019 |
26 |
9,725 |
11,624 |
20 |
Software contribution |
4,888 |
4,888 |
0 |
6,184 |
6,184 |
0 |
7,483 |
7,483 |
0 |
Non-segment-related expenses |
(4,275) |
(4,455) |
4 |
(4,506) |
(5,253) |
17 |
(4,725) |
(5,509) |
17 |
Other operating income & other taxes |
680 |
680 |
0 |
716 |
716 |
0 |
751 |
751 |
0 |
Operating expenses |
(67,454) |
(68,948) |
2 |
(78,011) |
(84,196) |
8 |
(86,813) |
(94,145) |
8 |
Adjusted operating profit |
7,724 |
8,030 |
4 |
10,377 |
11,666 |
12 |
13,234 |
14,349 |
8 |
Operating profit margin (%) |
10.3 |
10.4 |
|
11.7 |
12.2 |
|
13.2 |
13.2 |
|
Growth (%) |
83.0 |
90.2 |
|
34.3 |
45.3 |
|
27.5 |
23.0 |
|
Net interest |
(775) |
(775) |
0 |
(775) |
(775) |
0 |
(775) |
(775) |
0 |
Profit before tax norm |
6,949 |
7,255 |
4 |
9,602 |
10,891 |
13 |
12,459 |
13,574 |
9 |
Profit before tax |
6,949 |
7,255 |
4 |
9,602 |
10,891 |
13 |
12,459 |
13,574 |
9 |
Taxation |
(2,085) |
(2,177) |
4 |
(2,880) |
(3,267) |
13 |
(3,738) |
(4,072) |
9 |
Non-controlling interests |
(225) |
(225) |
0 |
(248) |
(248) |
0 |
(267) |
(267) |
0 |
FRS 3 net income |
4,639 |
4,854 |
5 |
6,474 |
7,376 |
14 |
8,454 |
9,235 |
9 |
Adjusted EPS (c) |
106.5 |
111.4 |
4.6 |
130.1 |
148.2 |
13.9 |
169.9 |
185.6 |
9.2 |
P/E – Adjusted EPS (x) |
|
33.6 |
|
|
25.3 |
|
|
20.2 |
|
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
€000s |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
2018e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
23,536 |
30,480 |
56,236 |
76,979 |
95,862 |
108,494 |
Cost of sales |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Gross Profit |
23,536 |
30,480 |
56,236 |
76,979 |
95,862 |
108,494 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
(1,972) |
862 |
5,484 |
9,383 |
13,106 |
16,094 |
Adjusted Operating Profit |
|
|
(2,714) |
(66) |
4,222 |
8,030 |
11,666 |
14,349 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
1,505 |
356 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Associates |
0 |
0 |
(3) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
(2,714) |
1,439 |
4,575 |
8,030 |
11,666 |
14,349 |
||
Net Interest |
(85) |
(66) |
(828) |
(775) |
(775) |
(775) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(2,799) |
(132) |
3,394 |
7,255 |
10,891 |
13,574 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
(2,799) |
1,373 |
3,747 |
7,255 |
10,891 |
13,574 |
Tax |
477 |
(344) |
(1,195) |
(2,177) |
(3,267) |
(4,072) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(2,322) |
(477) |
2,198 |
5,079 |
7,624 |
9,502 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
(2,322) |
1,028 |
2,552 |
5,079 |
7,624 |
9,502 |
||
Minority interest |
(84) |
(40) |
0 |
(225) |
(248) |
(267) |
||
Adjustments for normalised earnings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net income (norm) |
(2,405) |
(517) |
2,198 |
4,854 |
7,376 |
9,235 |
||
Net income (FRS 3) |
(2,405) |
988 |
2,552 |
4,854 |
7,376 |
9,235 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
4.4 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
(64.7) |
(13.9) |
58.8 |
111.4 |
148.2 |
185.6 |
EPS - normalised & fully diluted (c) |
|
|
(64.7) |
(13.9) |
58.8 |
111.4 |
148.2 |
185.6 |
EPS - FRS 3 (c) |
|
|
(64.7) |
26.6 |
68.3 |
111.4 |
148.2 |
185.6 |
Dividend per share (c) |
8.00 |
13.00 |
34.00 |
40.00 |
50.00 |
60.00 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
-8.4 |
2.8 |
9.8 |
12.2 |
13.7 |
14.8 |
||
Adjusted Operating Margin (%) |
-11.5 |
-0.2 |
7.5 |
10.4 |
12.2 |
13.2 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
7,759 |
8,291 |
15,243 |
25,430 |
25,907 |
26,332 |
Intangible Assets |
5,194 |
5,190 |
11,675 |
21,675 |
21,675 |
21,675 |
||
Tangible Assets |
1,070 |
1,231 |
1,999 |
2,185 |
2,663 |
3,087 |
||
Other |
1,496 |
1,871 |
1,570 |
1,570 |
1,570 |
1,570 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
16,145 |
17,882 |
29,996 |
57,579 |
68,121 |
72,852 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
9,105 |
11,286 |
16,084 |
22,017 |
27,418 |
31,031 |
||
Cash |
6,355 |
5,681 |
13,769 |
35,419 |
40,561 |
41,679 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(5,804) |
(9,782) |
(13,703) |
(19,448) |
(24,550) |
(27,741) |
Creditors |
(5,204) |
(9,182) |
(11,101) |
(16,847) |
(21,948) |
(25,140) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(600) |
(600) |
(2,602) |
(2,602) |
(2,602) |
(2,602) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(4,338) |
(2,501) |
(15,513) |
(20,013) |
(20,013) |
(15,513) |
Long term borrowings |
(2,250) |
(1,650) |
(12,344) |
(12,344) |
(12,344) |
(12,344) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(2,088) |
(851) |
(3,169) |
(7,669) |
(7,669) |
(3,169) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
13,762 |
13,890 |
16,024 |
43,547 |
49,466 |
55,930 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
(2,110) |
2,579 |
1,879 |
8,998 |
12,626 |
15,552 |
Net Interest |
4 |
(66) |
(167) |
(775) |
(775) |
(775) |
||
Tax |
(1,062) |
(1,102) |
(554) |
(2,031) |
(3,050) |
(3,801) |
||
Capex |
(230) |
(701) |
(1,779) |
(1,540) |
(1,917) |
(2,170) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(2,267) |
(500) |
(3,228) |
(11,500) |
0 |
(5,200) |
||
Shares issued |
(35) |
0 |
0 |
29,768 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(937) |
(335) |
(483) |
(1,271) |
(1,743) |
(2,488) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(6,638) |
(124) |
(4,332) |
21,649 |
5,142 |
1,118 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(10,152) |
(3,505) |
(3,431) |
1,176 |
(20,474) |
(25,615) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(10) |
51 |
(275) |
0 |
0 |
() |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(3,505) |
(3,431) |
1,176 |
(20,474) |
(25,615) |
(26,733) |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
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