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Treatt — Update 11 October 2016

Treatt (LSE: TET)

Last close As at 06/08/2026

—

— 0.00 (0.00%)

Market capitalisation

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More on this equity

Research: Consumer

Treatt — Update 11 October 2016

Treatt

Analyst avatar placeholder

Written by

Consumer

Treatt

Treat(t)ing investors

Pre-close trading update

Food & beverages

11 October 2016

Price

219.50p

Market cap

£113m

Net debt (£m) at 31 March 2016

8.4

Shares in issue

51.7m

Free float

100%

Code

TET

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

18.0

29.5

33.8

Rel (local)

13.5

19.5

22.1

52-week high/low

219.5p

157.0p

Business description

Treatt provides innovative ingredient solutions from its manufacturing bases in Europe, North America and Africa, principally for the flavours and fragrance industries and multinational consumer goods companies with particular emphasis on the beverage sector.

Next events

FY16 results

29 November 2016

Analysts

Sara Welford

+44 (0) 20 3077 5700

Paul Hickman

+44 (0)20 3681 2501

Treatt is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Treatt has had an outstanding year as the positive trends in its markets continue to play out. We believe the company is building a strong platform for the longer term and the performance continues to improve as the strategy progresses under the stewardship of Daemmon Reeve. Following the pre-close trading update, we upgrade our forecasts by c 10% at the EPS level to reflect the improved outlook. Our DCF-derived fair value increases to 240p (from 204p), which represents c 10% upside.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

09/15

85.9

8.3

12.7

4.6

17.6

2.1

09/16e

88.1

9.4

14.0

4.8

15.7

2.2

09/17e

92.5

10.2

15.1

5.2

14.5

2.4

09/18e

96.2

10.4

15.5

5.3

14.2

2.5

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Impressive growth, strategy delivering

Treatt’s long-term strategy is to deliver consistent, sustainable growth in profit through developing value-added ingredient solutions, coupled with effective cost control. Key to this strategy is improved customer focus and closer relationships, with the ultimate goal of delivering greater profitability by concentrating on the more value-added segments. This latest period clearly demonstrates that this goal is being delivered. As a result of the trading update, we upgrade our full-year forecasts for 2016-18 to reflect the improved outlook. Our sales forecasts move up c 3%, while PBT and EPS increase by c 5%.

Ingredients space remains interesting

Growth in the ingredients space remains higher than average for the consumer sector as consumers demand cleaner labels and healthier products, but will not compromise on taste, and this requires specialist ingredients. Margins are also typically high at the value-added end. Treatt’s ingredient solutions are used both by food ingredients companies in their formulations, and by food and beverages companies directly. Treatt has placed particular emphasis on the beverages space and is becoming increasingly specialised in this space.

Valuation: Attractive ingredients play

We value Treatt using a DCF model and we derive a fair value of 240p (previously 204p), an attractive c 10% upside to the current share price. This is supported by its relative valuation, with Treatt trading at 15.3x and 10.6x calendar P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples for 2016, representing a c 40% discount to its ingredients peer group on both metrics. Given our forecast for a mid-single-digit three-year CAGR EPS for 2016-18, we believe this level of discount is unwarranted.

Forecast revisions

We detail our key changes to our P&L forecasts in Exhibit 1 below. Following the pre-close trading update, we have upgraded our medium-term sales forecasts by c 3% to reflect the improved outlook and expectations of a strong H216, which should provide a solid platform for future years. Our FY16 forecasts increase by only 2.5% as the FX hedging goes through the sales line thus any adverse impact from sterling devaluation affecting the hedging will go through the top line. Improved sales growth should lead to operating leverage. In addition, as discussed above, Treatt’s goal is to continue to concentrate on the more value-added segments and move away from the commodity trading business, hence we have raised our margin forecasts. We have increased our pre-tax profit and EPS forecasts by c 5%.

Exhibit 1: Old vs new key P&L forecasts

EPS* (p)

PBT* (£000s)

Sales (£000s)

Old

New

% chg

Old

New

% chg

Old

New

% chg

09/16e

12.1

12.5

3.3%

8,330

8,663

4.0%

85,934

88,082

2.5%

09/17e

13.0

13.5

4.1%

8,959

9,389

4.8%

89,371

92,486

3.5%

09/18e

13.2

13.8

4.5%

9,118

9,594

5.2%

92,946

96,186

3.5%

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Stated on company normalised basis, which is pre-exceptional but after amortisation of acquired intangibles and share-based payments.

Valuation update

We illustrate Treatt’s valuation versus its ingredients peer group in Exhibit 2 below. Treatt trades at a significant discount to its peer group on all metrics. Some discount can be applied to reflect its small size and because some of its products are relatively ‘upstream’ in the ingredients spectrum, particularly the bulk ingredients that are sold to other ingredients companies. However, we believe a c 40% discount on EV/EBITDA and P/E is unwarranted.

Exhibit 2: Benchmark valuation

P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

Dividend yield (%)

Market cap (m)

2016e

2017e

2016e

2017e

2016e

2017e

Givaudan

CHF18,107

26.3

23.6

16.4

15.7

2.9%

3.2%

IFF

$10,938

24.6

22.7

16.1

14.9

1.7%

1.9%

Symrise

CHF 9,145

28.4

25.5

15.9

14.3

1.3%

1.5%

Frutarom

ILS11,705

24.0

20.2

16.5

13.9

0.6%

0.7%

Chr Hansen

DKK51,040

36.0

31.5

23.5

20.7

1.3%

1.5%

Kerry

€12,264

21.7

19.6

15.6

14.0

0.8%

0.9%

Ingredion

$9,580

19.5

18.0

10.6

9.7

1.4%

1.5%

Peer group average

25.8

23.0

16.4

14.8

1.4%

1.6%

Treatt

£112.1

15.3

14.3

10.6

9.8

2.3%

2.4%

Premium/(discount) to peer group (%)

-40.8%

-38.0%

-35.0%

-33.4%

57.0%

50.9%

Source: Bloomberg (prices as of 10 October 2016). Note: Treatt figures are calendarised to aid comparison.

Our DCF-derived fair value is now 240p (previously 204p) following the changes to our model detailed in our earnings section above (namely an increase in short- to medium-term sales forecast and margin assumptions). Our longer-term sales growth forecast remains at 3.5% pa, falling to 2% growth in perpetuity. Our DCF is calculated based on a WACC of 7.9% (encompassing a beta of 0.8, an equity risk premium of 5.0% and a borrowing spread of 5.0%) and a terminal growth rate of 2%.

Sensitivities

Despite 60% of turnover being exposed to the ‘defensive’ beverage sector, Treatt has a couple of key sensitivities, which it seeks to mitigate through the in-depth knowledge and skill base of its buying team and undertaking an active hedging policy where possible:

■

Commodity exposure: namely citrus oils, which make up c 30% of revenues.

■

Foreign exchange: translation risk on US dollar profits, which it manages through hedging.

Other points of interest

Relocation of UK business

As announced with the H115 results, Treatt has decided to fully relocate its UK head office and manufacturing plant in the Bury St Edmunds area. Discussions with landowners are at an advanced stage now, and we expect an update with the FY results in November. As a reminder, we currently forecast £20m total spend (the guidance is £15-20m), with the majority of the costs in FY17 and FY18.

FX

Although there have been sharp movements in FY16, particularly with sterling devaluation following the EU referendum in the UK, Treatt has a number of hedging strategies in place, including using debt aligned with its business exposure. These mitigate the volatility and adverse movement in currency, particularly at the profit level. The underlying impact of the strengthening US dollar is expected to reduce profits by £0.5m in FY16, but the hedging policies should substantially reverse this figure in Q117.

Earthoil dispute

Treatt had been contesting a £2.3m claim against it related to deferred consideration on the earn-out from the acquisition of Earthoil in 2007-08. The company has now reached final settlement with the sellers, which concludes the dispute. Payment of £0.9m will be made to the sellers. In terms of accounting, £0.7m of this payment will be accounted for as an increase in goodwill, with the balance being treated as an exceptional item in the P&L. We have updated our forecasts accordingly.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

£000s

2013

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

2018e

Year end September

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

74,097

79,189

85,934

88,082

92,486

96,186

Cost of Sales

(56,510)

(61,218)

(66,955)

(68,365)

(71,413)

(74,173)

Gross Profit

17,587

17,971

18,979

19,718

21,074

22,013

EBITDA

 

 

8,360

9,068

10,307

11,488

12,557

13,233

Operating Profit (before amort., except and sbp.)

 

 

7,141

7,846

9,063

10,020

11,015

11,630

Intangible Amortisation

(181)

(172)

(175)

(160)

(160)

(160)

Share based payments

(22)

(46)

(198)

(600)

(671)

(686)

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

6,938

7,628

8,690

9,260

10,184

10,784

Net Interest

(651)

(724)

(740)

(596)

(795)

(1,190)

Exceptionals

(1,153)

(1,402)

(174)

(200)

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

6,490

7,122

8,323

9,423

10,221

10,440

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

5,134

5,502

7,776

8,463

9,389

9,594

Profit Before Tax (company)

 

 

6,287

6,904

7,950

8,663

9,389

9,594

Tax

(1,655)

(1,553)

(1,786)

(2,209)

(2,394)

(2,446)

Profit After Tax (norm)

4,835

5,326

6,537

7,214

7,826

7,993

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

3,479

3,949

5,990

6,254

6,995

7,148

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

51.1

51.3

51.5

51.7

51.7

51.7

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

9.5

10.4

12.7

14.0

15.1

15.5

EPS - normalised & fully diluted (p)

 

 

9.4

10.3

12.6

13.9

15.1

15.4

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

6.8

7.7

11.6

12.1

13.5

13.8

Dividend per share (p)

3.7

3.8

4.6

4.8

5.2

5.3

Gross Margin (%)

23.7

22.7

22.1

22.4

22.8

22.9

EBITDA Margin (%)

11.3

11.5

12.0

13.0

13.6

13.8

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

9.6

9.9

10.5

11.4

11.9

12.1

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

14,341

13,777

13,381

17,274

26,960

33,140

Intangible Assets

1,759

1,801

1,736

2,276

2,116

1,956

Tangible Assets

11,718

10,994

10,998

14,351

24,197

30,537

Investments

864

982

647

647

647

647

Current Assets

 

 

38,340

43,590

45,045

44,982

47,576

49,843

Stocks

23,669

28,020

25,799

27,306

29,041

30,587

Debtors

13,207

14,509

17,635

17,176

18,035

18,756

Cash

1,117

629

1,477

500

500

500

Other

347

432

134

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(12,533)

(16,005)

(13,481)

(15,976)

(21,062)

(23,587)

Creditors

(11,962)

(12,729)

(12,675)

(12,948)

(13,596)

(14,139)

Short term borrowings

(522)

(2,356)

(567)

(3,028)

(7,467)

(9,448)

Provisions

(49)

(920)

(239)

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(12,754)

(12,602)

(11,760)

(6,310)

(8,329)

(9,120)

Long term borrowings

(8,889)

(7,857)

(7,065)

(1,514)

(3,733)

(4,724)

Other long term liabilities

(3,865)

(4,745)

(4,695)

(4,796)

(4,596)

(4,396)

Net Assets

 

 

27,394

28,760

33,185

39,969

45,144

50,276

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

9,250

3,528

8,667

12,103

10,410

11,309

Net Interest

(714)

(724)

(740)

(596)

(795)

(1,190)

Tax

(649)

(1,552)

(1,469)

(2,209)

(2,394)

(2,446)

Capex

(1,433)

(538)

(924)

(4,821)

(11,387)

(7,943)

Acquisitions/disposals

(154)

(208)

(103)

0

0

0

Financing

(56)

105

147

0

0

0

Dividends

(1,585)

(1,899)

(1,978)

(2,363)

(2,492)

(2,701)

Net Cash Flow

4,659

(1,288)

3,600

2,113

(6,658)

(2,971)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

12,949

8,294

9,584

6,155

4,042

10,700

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

(4)

(2)

(171)

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

8,294

9,584

6,155

4,042

10,700

13,671

Source: Edison Investment Research, Treatt data

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Treatt and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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US

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Level 25, Aurora Place

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Level 15, 171 Featherston St

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New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

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New Zealand

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Treatt and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

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