Last close As at 05/08/2026
GBP19.60
▲ 20.00 (1.03%)
Market capitalisation
GBP239m
Research: Financials
S&U’s latest trading update confirms the improving trend in the motor finance business in terms of demand, transactions and indicators for credit quality. Aspen property bridging also continues to make progress although at a slightly slower rate. Our estimates are unchanged and the shares appear conservatively valued with an attractive yield.
Written by
S&U |
Trading update confirms positive trends |
Trading update |
Financial services |
12 August 2019 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
S&U is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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S&U’s latest trading update confirms the improving trend in the motor finance business in terms of demand, transactions and indicators for credit quality. Aspen property bridging also continues to make progress although at a slightly slower rate. Our estimates are unchanged and the shares appear conservatively valued with an attractive yield.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
01/18 |
79.8 |
30.2 |
202.4 |
105.0 |
11.0 |
4.7 |
01/19 |
89.2 |
34.6 |
232.0 |
118.0 |
9.6 |
5.3 |
01/20e |
94.7 |
36.9 |
247.8 |
122.5 |
9.0 |
5.5 |
01/21e |
103.8 |
40.3 |
270.8 |
124.6 |
8.2 |
5.6 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Trading to end July in line with expectations
S&U’s update for the period between its AGM (23 May) and end-July is reassuring. It indicates that the rate of growth in both loan applications and transactions continues to grow in the Advantage Finance motor finance business. Customer numbers are over 62,000 compared with over 60,000 at the time of the AGM and up 7% y-o-y. The used car market is described as robust and is expected to remain so even in the event of a no-deal Brexit. We view the confidence here as partly reflecting the segment of the market S&U addresses with loans averaging around £6,000 for vehicles that typically provide a means of getting to work. Similarly, its exposure to weakening car prices is substantially smaller than for personal contract plan lenders financing new or near-new cars. On credit quality, the early indicators on repayments of recently granted loans continue to show improvement following tightening of loan criteria. The Aspen property bridging business is also making progress but at a slightly slower pace than expected given a softening of activity in the housing market. Amounts receivable stood at £24m at end-July vs £22m at the time of the May update. Product and IT linkage improvements with introducers are expected to help in H2.
Background and outlook
Used car market volumes have been more resilient than new car registrations recently and the value of car finance has continued to see growth. While the political/economic outlook appears uncertain, the profile and long-term track record of the Advantage business in particular are supportive features in the event of unfavourable macro developments. In the meantime, overall S&U trading is on track and our estimates are unchanged.
Valuation
Our unchanged estimates point to S&U generating returns on equity of over 17% prospectively while a ROE/COE model suggests that, at the current share price, the market is cautiously factoring in a return of c 13%. Prospective P/E multiples are similar to a peer group (see page 3) but the yield is above average.
Market background and outlook
The period of UK/global political and macroeconomic uncertainty continues, dampening confidence, but in the circumstances economic activity has held up better than might be expected. Redundancies and unemployment, lagging economic indicators and potentially important signals for credit quality for S&U, remain at relatively subdued levels (Exhibit 2). The question remains whether these developments trigger a significant adverse change.
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Exhibit 1: GFK UK consumer confidence indicator |
Exhibit 2: UK redundancies and unemployment |
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Source: Bloomberg (last value July 2019) |
Source: Bloomberg (last value May 2019) |
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Exhibit 1: GFK UK consumer confidence indicator |
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Source: Bloomberg (last value July 2019) |
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Exhibit 2: UK redundancies and unemployment |
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Source: Bloomberg (last value May 2019) |
Exhibits 3 and 4 show trends in the UK new and used car market. Used car market transaction volumes have historically been less volatile and this is evident in recent quarters in the smaller reductions in used car activity. The value of car finance through dealerships mirrors this, although here the used car segment has continued to see growth in value over the period shown, in line with the positive remarks made by S&U. Within the Provident Financial half year report, the comments on Moneybarn (an Advantage peer) were also in tune with this, reporting robust used car demand and very strong new business volumes. In contrast, recent H1 trading updates from car retailers Lookers and Pendragon were cautious, citing weaker demand putting pressure on used car margins, particularly in June. However, these comments are likely to reflect both a higher value segment of the market than Advantage addresses and specific stock management challenges.
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Exhibit 3: UK car market trends (volume) |
Exhibit 4: Car finance through dealerships (value) |
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Source: SMMT |
Source: Finance and Leasing Association |
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Exhibit 3: UK car market trends (volume) |
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Source: SMMT |
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Exhibit 4: Car finance through dealerships (value) |
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Source: Finance and Leasing Association |
The next two charts show the data published by BCA car auctions on price levels for fleet and lease, and dealer part-exchanged cars as indicators of trends in prices. The percentage change chart makes clear there has been a softening in price increases following a period of marked strength last year. Secure Trust Bank has referenced a particularly marked seasonal weakening in used car values in Q219 (-14%) but again, we assume this reflects the near prime/prime segment now addressed by Motorway/V12 Vehicle Finance. A recent market review by Aston Barclay indicates ‘young’ part exchanges (c £6,000, average mileage 65,000, c five years) were down 6% sequentially in Q2 but effectively stable year-on-year. As we have mentioned in previous notes, a reduction in prices could be a negative for Advantage (potentially triggering higher early redemptions and lower realisations on repossessions) but, given the level of depreciation already incurred on the cars being financed, the sensitivity is relatively low. A more salient risk would be a significant increase in the level of redundancies in the event of a marked economic slowdown.
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Exhibit 5: BCA car auction prices (£) |
Exhibit 6: BCA car auction price change y-o-y (%) |
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Source: BCA Marketplace |
Source: BCA Marketplace |
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Exhibit 5: BCA car auction prices (£) |
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Source: BCA Marketplace |
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Exhibit 6: BCA car auction price change y-o-y (%) |
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Source: BCA Marketplace |
While the macro and related uncertainties mentioned here are set to remain a feature, for Advantage the continued high level of demand, signs that tightened credit criteria are working, measures to fine tune commission payments and ongoing IT enhancements are all positive factors for the future.
At Aspen, while the lower activity levels in the housing market may temper growth, the business remains in its early stages with potential to gain penetration through product development and improved IT linkages with introducers. Loss avoidance remains a priority and a conservative approach to developing the business remains in place.
Our estimates are unchanged following the update and are shown in the financial summary on page 5.
Valuation comparison and recent performance
For reference we show an updated version of our peer comparison table which includes a selection of companies with an involvement in non-standard or motor lending as one of their activities. S&U’s prospective P/Es are similar to the peer average while its yield, return on equity and price to book value are all above average.
Exhibit 7: Peer comparison
Price |
Market cap |
P/E 2019 |
P/E 2020 |
Yield |
ROE |
P/BV |
|
S&U |
2,100 |
254 |
8.5 |
7.8 |
5.6 |
17.6 |
1.5 |
Close Brothers |
1,294 |
1,963 |
9.6 |
9.3 |
4.9 |
16.3 |
1.5 |
PCF Group |
28 |
69 |
9.1 |
7.1 |
1.1 |
11.4 |
1.4 |
Provident Financial |
371 |
943 |
7.6 |
6.3 |
2.7 |
16.1 |
1.4 |
Secure Trust Bank |
1,320 |
244 |
7.5 |
6.3 |
6.3 |
12.7 |
1.0 |
Peer average |
8.4 |
7.3 |
3.7 |
14.1 |
1.3 |
Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: P/Es adjusted to calendar years. Priced 8 August 2019.
Exhibit 8 shows the recent price performance for the peer group with all companies showing declines over all the periods shown, which is likely to be largely a reflection of market concerns regarding potential economic outcomes. In this context S&U has performed better than the average over most of the periods, which can be seen as warranted by its business profile and the return on equity generated.
Exhibit 8: Share price performance comparison
% change |
1 month |
3 months |
1 year |
YTD |
From 12m high |
S&U |
-11.8 |
-3.7 |
-13.8 |
-1.4 |
-21.1 |
Close Brothers |
-11.1 |
-15.6 |
-17.3 |
-10.1 |
-23.1 |
PCF Group |
-9.8 |
-16.7 |
-26.5 |
-23.9 |
-35.9 |
Provident Financial |
-9.0 |
-26.8 |
-44.4 |
-35.4 |
-47.4 |
Secure Trust Bank |
-10.2 |
-10.8 |
-18.3 |
10.9 |
-26.7 |
Average |
-10.0 |
-17.5 |
-26.6 |
-14.6 |
-33.3 |
Source: Refinitiv. Note: Priced 8 August 2019.
Exhibit 9: Financial summary
£'000 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020e |
2021e |
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Year end 31 January |
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PROFIT & LOSS |
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Revenue |
|
|
45,182 |
60,521 |
79,781 |
89,215 |
94,690 |
103,784 |
Impairments |
(7,611) |
(12,194) |
(19,596) |
(23,186) |
(24,273) |
(25,648) |
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Other cost of sales |
(8,980) |
(12,871) |
(17,284) |
(15,751) |
(16,813) |
(19,200) |
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Administration expenses |
(7,131) |
(8,332) |
(9,629) |
(10,763) |
(11,363) |
(12,454) |
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EBITDA |
|
|
21,460 |
27,124 |
33,272 |
39,515 |
42,241 |
46,482 |
Depreciation |
|
|
(209) |
(253) |
(294) |
(414) |
(555) |
(619) |
Op. profit (incl. share-based payouts pre-except.) |
|
|
21,251 |
26,871 |
32,978 |
39,101 |
41,686 |
45,863 |
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Non recurring items |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Investment revenues / finance expense |
(1,782) |
(1,668) |
(2,818) |
(4,541) |
(4,821) |
(5,581) |
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Profit before tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
19,469 |
25,203 |
30,160 |
34,560 |
36,865 |
40,282 |
Profit before tax (norm) |
|
|
19,469 |
25,203 |
30,160 |
34,560 |
36,865 |
40,282 |
Tax |
(3,583) |
(4,861) |
(5,746) |
(6,571) |
(7,004) |
(7,654) |
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Discontinued business after tax |
53,299 |
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Profit after tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
69,185 |
20,342 |
24,414 |
27,989 |
29,861 |
32,628 |
Profit after tax (norm) |
|
|
15,886 |
20,342 |
24,414 |
27,989 |
29,861 |
32,628 |
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
12.0 |
12.0 |
12.1 |
12.1 |
12.1 |
12.1 |
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Diluted EPS (p) |
|
|
576.5 |
169.1 |
202.4 |
232.0 |
247.8 |
270.8 |
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
132.4 |
169.1 |
202.4 |
232.0 |
247.8 |
270.8 |
Dividend per share (p) |
201.0 |
91.0 |
105.0 |
118.0 |
122.5 |
124.6 |
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EBITDA margin (%) |
47.5% |
44.8% |
41.7% |
44.3% |
44.6% |
44.8% |
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Operating margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
47.0% |
44.4% |
41.3% |
43.8% |
44.0% |
44.2% |
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Return on equity |
15.2% |
15.2% |
16.7% |
17.6% |
17.3% |
17.2% |
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BALANCE SHEET |
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Non-current assets |
|
|
103,653 |
138,004 |
181,015 |
185,383 |
208,712 |
234,133 |
Current assets |
|
|
61,903 |
57,763 |
84,178 |
95,430 |
103,030 |
115,389 |
Total assets |
|
|
165,556 |
195,767 |
265,193 |
280,813 |
311,742 |
349,522 |
Current liabilities |
|
|
(6,850) |
(17,850) |
(7,927) |
(6,722) |
(6,896) |
(7,126) |
Non current liabilities inc pref |
(30,450) |
(38,450) |
(104,450) |
(108,724) |
(124,024) |
(143,724) |
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Net assets |
|
|
128,256 |
139,467 |
152,816 |
165,367 |
180,822 |
198,672 |
NAV per share (p) |
1,084 |
1,177 |
1,276 |
1,375 |
1,504 |
1,652 |
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CASH FLOW |
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Operating cash flow |
|
|
(16,017) |
(27,431) |
(43,418) |
10,530 |
568 |
(4,069) |
Net cash from investing activities |
80,716 |
(308) |
(1,040) |
(785) |
(846) |
(846) |
||
Dividends paid |
(23,090) |
(9,548) |
(11,377) |
(13,080) |
(14,592) |
(14,964) |
||
Other financing (excluding change in borrowing) |
55 |
21 |
12 |
14 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net cash flow |
|
|
41,664 |
(37,266) |
(55,823) |
(3,321) |
(14,870) |
(19,879) |
Opening net (debt)/cash |
|
|
(53,565) |
(11,901) |
(49,167) |
(104,990) |
(108,311) |
(123,181) |
Closing net (debt)/cash |
|
|
(11,901) |
(49,167) |
(104,990) |
(108,311) |
(123,181) |
(143,060) |
Source: S&U, Edison Investment Research. Note: FY16 dividend per share includes exceptional payment of 125p.
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Research: Financials
Secure Trust Bank (STB) reported H119 adjusted pre-tax earnings up 14% y o y driven by volume growth and lower impairment rates. With a diversified lending model it has shown the ability to shift asset allocation significantly, de-risking and avoiding price pressures prevailing in some lending asset classes. By putting the brakes on early, STB is now reaping the rewards, with good profitability and the flexibility to adjust to macro and political changes.