Last close As at 05/08/2026
GBP1.08
▲ 4.00 (3.86%)
Market capitalisation
GBP309m
Research: TMT
In H124, digital wallets/account-to-account (A2A) adoption continued, with revenue growth of more than 50% y-o-y. Carrier billing revenues were robust with double-digit growth. The adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be broadly flat versus FY23 as Boku invests to support core back-end infrastructure. We have raised our revenue forecasts while trimming our EBITDA forecasts to reflect this investment, which should support stronger growth in the medium term. The company has appointed a new CFO, Rob Whittick, with immediate effect.
Boku |
Strong underlying revenue growth in H124 |
H124 trading update |
Software and comp services |
18 July 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next event
Analyst
Boku is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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In H124, digital wallets/account-to-account (A2A) adoption continued, with revenue growth of more than 50% y-o-y. Carrier billing revenues were robust with double-digit growth. The adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be broadly flat versus FY23 as Boku invests to support core back-end infrastructure. We have raised our revenue forecasts while trimming our EBITDA forecasts to reflect this investment, which should support stronger growth in the medium term. The company has appointed a new CFO, Rob Whittick, with immediate effect.
Year |
Revenue |
EBITDA* |
Diluted EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
EV/EBITDA |
12/22 |
63.8 |
20.2 |
3.9 |
0 |
60.0 |
29.0 |
12/23 |
82.7 |
25.8 |
5.6 |
0 |
42.6 |
22.7 |
12/24e |
96.2 |
30.6 |
6.7 |
0 |
35.6 |
19.2 |
12/25e |
106.8 |
35.8 |
7.6 |
0 |
31.2 |
16.4 |
Note: *EBITDA and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
H124 revenue growth at least 23% y-o-y
For H124, Boku expects to report revenue of at least $47m, up 23% y-o-y (30% constant currency (cc)). Total payment volume (TPV) of $5.8bn was 17% higher yo-y (26% cc) resulting in a take rate of 0.81% versus 0.76% in H123, reflecting the increasing proportion of digital wallet transactions. Revenue from digital wallets/A2A increased more than 50% y-o-y, helped by the launch of a Google/BLIK connection in Poland during H1. Carrier-related revenue (direct carrier billing and bundling) saw double-digit growth year-on-year. Monthly active users grew 30% yo-y/18% h-o-h to 79.6m. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in line with market expectations with margins broadly flat versus 2023. Net cash including merchant cash in transit was $148.5m at end H124 ($150.8m end FY23).
Revised forecasts reflect investment for growth
The company noted that through FY24 and FY25, it is focused on building the core infrastructure required to support scalable growth of A2A volumes and cross-border transactions as well as preparing for some significant market and customer launches later this year. We have raised our revenue forecasts to reflect stronger- than-expected performance in H124, while also revising up our operating cost assumptions to reflect the ongoing investment. We expect this investment will allow the company to better exploit the growth of cross-border e-commerce.
Valuation: LPM adoption to drive upside
Boku is trading at a premium to its peer group on FY24/25 EV/EBITDA multiples. Via a reverse discounted cash flow that uses our forecasts to FY26 and a WACC of 9%, we estimate the share price is factoring in revenue growth of 4.5% and average EBITDA margins of 34% for FY27–33, which in our view is conservative considering the potential of the digital wallet/A2A market. A growing contribution from Amazon, continued adoption of local payment methods (LPM) and new major merchant sign-ups would be the main drivers of longer-term growth and profits.
Changes to forecasts
Exhibit 1: Changes to forecasts
$'m |
FY24e |
FY24e |
FY25e |
FY25e |
FY26e |
FY26e |
|||||||
Old |
New |
Change |
y-o-y |
Old |
New |
Change |
y-o-y |
Old |
New |
Change |
y-o-y |
||
Revenue |
95.0 |
96.2 |
1.2% |
16.3% |
105.0 |
106.8 |
1.7% |
11.0% |
115.0 |
117.1 |
1.8% |
9.7% |
|
Gross profit |
92.7 |
93.8 |
1.2% |
16.3% |
101.8 |
103.6 |
1.7% |
10.4% |
111.6 |
113.6 |
1.8% |
9.7% |
|
Gross margin |
97.5% |
97.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
97.0% |
97.0% |
0.0% |
-0.5% |
97.0% |
97.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Adjusted EBITDA |
31.7 |
30.6 |
-3.4% |
18.6% |
36.9 |
35.8 |
-3.1% |
17.0% |
43.3 |
40.5 |
-6.5% |
13.1% |
|
Adjusted EBITDA margin |
33.3% |
31.8% |
-4.6% |
0.6% |
35.2% |
33.5% |
-4.7% |
1.7% |
37.7% |
34.6% |
-8.2% |
1.1% |
|
Normalised operating profit |
24.9 |
23.8 |
-4.3% |
16.8% |
29.0 |
27.8 |
-3.9% |
16.8% |
34.5 |
31.6 |
-8.2% |
13.6% |
|
Normalised operating margin |
26.2% |
24.8% |
-1.4% |
0.1% |
27.6% |
26.1% |
-1.5% |
1.3% |
30.0% |
27.0% |
-2.9% |
0.9% |
|
Reported operating profit |
15.4 |
14.3 |
-7.0% |
47.6% |
19.8 |
18.6 |
-5.7% |
30.0% |
26.0 |
23.1 |
-10.8% |
24.1% |
|
Reported operating margin |
16.2% |
14.9% |
-1.3% |
3.2% |
18.8% |
17.5% |
-1.4% |
2.6% |
22.6% |
19.8% |
-2.8% |
2.3% |
|
Normalised PBT |
27.5 |
26.5 |
-3.9% |
20.0% |
31.6 |
30.5 |
-3.6% |
15.1% |
37.1 |
34.3 |
-7.6% |
12.5% |
|
Reported PBT |
18.0 |
17.0 |
-6.0% |
48.8% |
22.4 |
21.3 |
-5.0% |
25.4% |
28.6 |
25.8 |
-9.9% |
21.2% |
|
Normalised net income |
21.8 |
20.9 |
-3.9% |
20.0% |
25.0 |
24.1 |
-3.6% |
15.1% |
29.3 |
27.1 |
-7.6% |
12.5% |
|
Reported net income |
14.8 |
13.9 |
-6.0% |
38.0% |
17.7 |
16.8 |
-5.0% |
20.8% |
22.6 |
20.4 |
-9.9% |
21.2% |
|
Normalised basic EPS ($) |
0.073 |
0.070 |
-3.9% |
19.8% |
0.083 |
0.080 |
-3.6% |
14.0% |
0.096 |
0.089 |
-7.6% |
11.4% |
|
Normalised diluted EPS ($) |
0.069 |
0.067 |
-3.9% |
19.8% |
0.079 |
0.076 |
-3.6% |
14.0% |
0.092 |
0.085 |
-7.6% |
11.4% |
|
Reported basic EPS ($) |
0.050 |
0.047 |
-6.0% |
37.7% |
0.059 |
0.056 |
-5.0% |
19.6% |
0.074 |
0.067 |
-9.9% |
20.0% |
|
Net debt/(cash) |
(175.9) |
(178.3) |
1.3% |
37.4% |
(211.1) |
(213.7) |
1.2% |
19.9% |
(250.7) |
(252.1) |
0.5% |
18.0% |
|
TPV ($bn) |
11.88 |
11.94 |
0.5% |
13.6% |
13.00 |
13.07 |
0.5% |
9.5% |
14.10 |
14.18 |
0.6% |
8.5% |
|
Take rate |
0.80% |
0.81% |
0.01% |
0.02% |
0.81% |
0.82% |
0.01% |
0.01% |
0.82% |
0.83% |
0.01% |
0.01% |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
$'m |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024e |
2025e |
2026e |
||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
||||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
50.1 |
56.4 |
62.1 |
63.8 |
82.7 |
96.2 |
106.8 |
117.1 |
Cost of Sales |
(5.6) |
(4.9) |
(1.6) |
(1.8) |
(2.1) |
(2.4) |
(3.2) |
(3.5) |
||
Gross Profit |
44.6 |
51.5 |
60.5 |
62.0 |
80.7 |
93.8 |
103.6 |
113.6 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
10.7 |
15.3 |
22.9 |
20.2 |
25.8 |
30.6 |
35.8 |
40.5 |
Normalised operating profit |
|
|
4.5 |
11.6 |
18.6 |
15.8 |
20.4 |
23.8 |
27.8 |
31.6 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(1.6) |
(2.2) |
(1.9) |
(1.0) |
(2.2) |
(1.9) |
(1.6) |
(0.9) |
||
Exceptionals |
(0.3) |
(21.1) |
0.4 |
(1.6) |
(0.9) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Share-based payments |
(6.8) |
(4.9) |
(6.4) |
(5.2) |
(7.6) |
(7.6) |
(7.6) |
(7.6) |
||
Reported operating profit |
(4.1) |
(16.7) |
10.6 |
8.0 |
9.7 |
14.3 |
18.6 |
23.1 |
||
Net Interest |
(0.4) |
(0.6) |
(0.7) |
(0.5) |
1.6 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(3.5) |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
4.1 |
11.0 |
17.8 |
15.3 |
22.1 |
26.5 |
30.5 |
34.3 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(1.3) |
(17.3) |
9.9 |
4.1 |
11.4 |
17.0 |
21.3 |
25.8 |
Reported tax |
1.7 |
(1.5) |
1.9 |
0.2 |
(1.3) |
(3.1) |
(4.5) |
(5.4) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
3.2 |
8.8 |
14.3 |
12.2 |
17.4 |
20.9 |
24.1 |
27.1 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
0.4 |
(18.8) |
11.8 |
4.3 |
10.1 |
13.9 |
16.8 |
20.4 |
||
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Discontinued operations |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(5.5) |
24.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
3.2 |
8.8 |
14.3 |
12.2 |
17.4 |
20.9 |
24.1 |
27.1 |
||
Net income (reported) |
0.4 |
(18.8) |
6.3 |
28.9 |
10.1 |
13.9 |
16.8 |
20.4 |
||
Basic ave. number of shares outstanding (m) |
246.8 |
273.8 |
294.0 |
298.3 |
297.9 |
298.6 |
301.6 |
304.6 |
||
EPS - basic normalised ($) |
|
|
0.01 |
0.03 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.06 |
0.07 |
0.08 |
0.09 |
EPS - diluted normalised ($) |
|
|
0.01 |
0.03 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.06 |
0.07 |
0.08 |
0.08 |
EPS - basic reported ($) |
|
|
0.00 |
(0.07) |
0.02 |
0.10 |
0.03 |
0.05 |
0.06 |
0.07 |
Dividend ($) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
42.2 |
12.5 |
10.1 |
2.7 |
29.7 |
16.3 |
11.0 |
9.7 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
88.9 |
91.3 |
97.5 |
97.2 |
97.5 |
97.5 |
97.0 |
97.0 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
21.3 |
27.1 |
36.9 |
31.7 |
31.2 |
31.8 |
33.5 |
34.6 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
9.0 |
20.5 |
30.0 |
24.7 |
24.7 |
24.8 |
26.1 |
27.0 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
52.2 |
69.8 |
84.4 |
77.2 |
77.3 |
78.1 |
77.5 |
77.1 |
Intangible Assets |
46.8 |
65.6 |
63.1 |
56.2 |
56.6 |
57.5 |
56.9 |
56.4 |
||
Tangible Assets |
3.5 |
3.8 |
5.3 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
||
Investments & other |
1.8 |
0.5 |
16.0 |
17.0 |
17.1 |
17.1 |
17.1 |
17.1 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
89.2 |
155.2 |
145.3 |
212.8 |
299.5 |
349.3 |
404.2 |
460.5 |
Stocks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Debtors |
53.6 |
92.5 |
82.9 |
90.5 |
148.5 |
149.7 |
169.3 |
187.2 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
34.7 |
61.3 |
56.7 |
99.6 |
129.7 |
178.3 |
213.7 |
252.1 |
||
Other |
0.9 |
1.4 |
5.8 |
22.8 |
21.2 |
21.2 |
21.2 |
21.2 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(81.8) |
(139.7) |
(122.1) |
(157.8) |
(234.9) |
(262.6) |
(292.6) |
(320.5) |
Creditors |
(78.0) |
(136.8) |
(119.6) |
(156.3) |
(233.0) |
(260.7) |
(290.7) |
(318.6) |
||
Tax and social security |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.2) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(2.1) |
(1.4) |
(1.1) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
(1.7) |
(1.4) |
(1.3) |
(1.3) |
(1.4) |
(1.4) |
(1.4) |
(1.4) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(2.6) |
(13.6) |
(12.3) |
(8.7) |
(8.4) |
(8.4) |
(8.4) |
(8.4) |
Long term borrowings |
0.0 |
(10.8) |
(6.7) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(2.6) |
(2.8) |
(5.7) |
(8.7) |
(8.4) |
(8.4) |
(8.4) |
(8.4) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
57.0 |
71.8 |
95.3 |
123.6 |
133.5 |
156.4 |
180.8 |
208.8 |
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
57.0 |
71.8 |
95.3 |
123.6 |
133.5 |
156.4 |
180.8 |
208.8 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
7.4 |
15.3 |
22.9 |
20.2 |
25.8 |
30.6 |
35.8 |
40.5 |
||
Working capital |
3.0 |
20.1 |
(7.1) |
27.9 |
17.9 |
26.4 |
10.4 |
10.0 |
||
Exceptional & other |
(1.3) |
(3.8) |
(3.5) |
1.8 |
(2.7) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Tax |
(0.1) |
(0.3) |
(0.4) |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
(3.1) |
(4.5) |
(5.4) |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
9.0 |
31.3 |
11.9 |
49.7 |
40.6 |
54.0 |
41.8 |
45.1 |
Capex |
(2.1) |
(3.4) |
(5.8) |
(5.3) |
(5.9) |
(8.1) |
(7.7) |
(8.1) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(0.7) |
(36.6) |
0.0 |
26.5 |
5.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net interest |
(0.4) |
(1.0) |
(0.6) |
(0.2) |
1.6 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
||
Equity financing |
0.6 |
26.2 |
1.1 |
(1.4) |
(7.1) |
1.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
(1.5) |
(2.6) |
(6.1) |
(12.7) |
(5.6) |
(1.3) |
(1.3) |
(1.3) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
4.857 |
13.8 |
0.5 |
56.6 |
29.3 |
48.6 |
35.4 |
38.4 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(28.9) |
(32.6) |
(49.0) |
(48.8) |
(99.6) |
(129.7) |
(178.3) |
(213.7) |
FX |
(1.1) |
1.3 |
(0.6) |
(5.6) |
0.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
(0.0) |
1.2 |
(0.1) |
(0.3) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(32.6) |
(49.0) |
(48.8) |
(99.6) |
(129.7) |
(178.3) |
(213.7) |
(252.1) |
Source: Boku, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Investment Companies
Baker Steel Resources Trust (BSRT) has released its end-June 2024 NAV (following the usual half-year valuation review of its unlisted holdings), posting a 1.8% NAV increase versus end-May 2024, which resulted in an H124 NAV total return (TR) of 4.9%. Major positive drivers included Cemos, a Morocco-based cement producer, and BSRT’s royalty over the Bilboes gold project in Zimbabwe (owned by Caledonia Mining Corporation, CMCL). This was partly offset by the fair value reduction of Kanga Investments and share price declines of some listed holdings. Importantly, BSRT’s half year revaluations did not capture some recent positive developments at Futura Resources, its largest holding. BSRT’s shares currently trade at a c 34% discount to NAV.