Record — Strong final quarter takes AUME above $80bn

Record (LSE: REC)

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Research: Financials

Record — Strong final quarter takes AUME above $80bn

Record’s final quarter saw continued net inflows and positive market moves allowing assets under management equivalent (AUME) to exceed over $80bn, an increase of 37% for the year. Positively, the diversity of revenue has also increased and there is potential for this trend to continue as new products are launched, including a new EM Sustainable Finance fund in Q122. Work continues on introducing technology to facilitate new products and enhance scalability.

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Financials

Record

Strong final quarter takes AUME above $80bn

Q421 trading update

Financial services

26 April 2021

Price

84.1p

Market cap

£165m

Net cash (£m) at end-September 2020 excluding seed fund cash

15.5

Shares in issue

199.1m

Free float

53%

Code

REC

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

30.0

71.3

158.8

Rel (local)

25.1

63.6

109.2

52-week high/low

84.1p

31.5p

Business description

Record is a specialist independent currency and derivatives manager that provides a number of products and services for institutional clients, including passive and dynamic hedging, and a range of currency for return strategies, including funds and customised segregated accounts.

Next events

FY21 results

17 June

Q122 trading update

23 July

Analysts

Andrew Mitchell

+44 (0)20 3681 2500

Martyn King

+44 (0)20 3077 5745

Record is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Record’s final quarter saw continued net inflows and positive market moves allowing assets under management equivalent (AUME) to exceed over $80bn, an increase of 37% for the year. Positively, the diversity of revenue has also increased and there is potential for this trend to continue as new products are launched, including a new EM Sustainable Finance fund in Q122. Work continues on introducing technology to facilitate new products and enhance scalability.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS**
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/19

25.0

8.0

3.25

2.30

25.9

2.7

03/20

25.6

7.7

3.26

2.30

25.8

2.7

03/21e

25.7

6.3

2.62

2.30

32.1

2.7

03/22e

30.7

10.5

4.35

2.30

19.3

2.7

Note: *EPS is diluted. **DPS excludes special dividends.

Q421 trading update

At end March Record’s AUME stood at $80.1bn, an increase of 7% during Q421 (or £58.1bn, +6%). For FY21 as a whole (to end March), the increase was 37% or 23% in dollar or sterling terms respectively. Within the FY21 increase net flows contributed 17% growth, market moves in underlying assets 14% and FX/scaling moves 6%. Another indicator of progress is the increase in client count with 10 added in the final quarter and 17 for the full year giving a total of 89 (the additions included new funds from existing clients and new clients). During the quarter there was progress on succession plans with Dmitri Tikhonov assuming the role of chief investment officer, succeeding Bob Noyen who stepped down from the board earlier in the year; Tikhonov has been with Record for over 18 years.

Seeking diversification and fee margin enhancement

Over the year faster growth in higher-margin dynamic hedging, currency for return and multi-product categories compared with passive hedging has resulted in greater diversity of prospective revenues. On this front the EM Sustainable Finance fund (anticipated AUME of $0.2bn–0.5bn), developed in collaboration with a major Swiss asset manager, should be launched in the current quarter, Q122. The fund is expected to pay a management fee in line with similar actively managed funds, substantially higher than the average fee margin of under 5bp earned by Record in FY20. Further new product offerings are under consideration, potentially continuing a reduction in dependence on passive hedging mandates where fee pressure is likely to remain a feature. There has also been some pruning of products with the closure of the dynamic macro currency and global macro strategies as the prospects for client demand were seen as limited.

Valuation

There are only minor changes in our estimates (see Exhibit 2). The shares trade on P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios above an asset management peer group (Exhibit 3) but our estimates do not assume further net inflows or crystallisation of performance fees.

Changes in AUME and investment performance

Exhibit 1 shows the progression in AUME since the end of FY20 with net flows, market and other changes by quarter and for FY20 and FY21.

Looking at fourth-quarter net flows, there was a further increase of $1.4bn in dynamic hedging mainly arising from the large dynamic hedging mandate announced in September 2020 (a balance of c $1.3bn is possible in subsequent quarters, depending on market movements). In addition, there was a $3.7bn inflow in passive hedging and a small outflow from the multi-product category. For the full year the most important movement in net flows was the $6.6bn net increase in dynamic hedging.

Markets, foreign exchange movements and scaling for mandates with a volatility target saw a modest net positive move in the fourth quarter but for the year as a whole, market movements added $8.4bn and FX and scaling adjustments a further £3.4bn.

Exhibit 1: AUME progression Q421 and FY21

$bn

AUME

Net flows and other moves

Year end March

Q420

Q321

Q421

Q121

Q221

Q321

Q421

FY20

FY21

Dynamic hedging

2.5

8.0

9.3

0.1

0.4

4.7

1.4

0.2

6.6

Passive hedging

50.3

57.9

61.5

(0.6)

(0.2)

(0.8)

3.7

4.1

2.1

Currency for return

2.6

3.6

3.9

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.0

Multi-product

3.0

4.9

5.2

0.0

0.0

1.2

(0.2)

0.0

1.0

Cash and futures

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total

58.6

74.6

80.1

(0.5)

0.2

5.1

4.9

4.6

9.7

Markets

3.6

0.5

1.2

3.1

(3.2)

8.4

FX and scaling for mandate volatility targeting

1.6

1.9

2.4

(2.5)

(0.1)

3.4

Total change

4.7

2.6

8.7

5.5

1.3

21.5

Source: Record

Performance in the currency for return strategies saw a positive quarter for the Multi-Strategy composite with a target volatility of 4%; the return was 1.12% and its annualised performance since inception (31 July 2012) was 0.86%. We estimate that currency for return mandates account for c 8% of revenues. On the enhanced passive hedging mandates, there was also a positive return of 0.4bp as a result of tenor management (not immaterial in relation to the average passive hedging fee rate of 2.9bp for H121).

Changes to estimates

Headline numbers from our revised estimates are shown in Exhibit 2. The changes are minor with modest revenue increases partly offset by slightly higher cost assumptions to allow for technology spending. We have added the Q4 performance fee of £0.1m but our estimates do not include any assumed performance fees so if any are crystallised in FY22 they would represent upside from our estimate.

Exhibit 2: Estimate changes

 

Revenue (£m)

PBT (£m)

EPS (p)

DPS (p)*

 

Old

New

Change

Old

New

Change

Old

New

Change

Old

New

Change

03/21e

25.5

25.7

1%

6.3

6.3

0%

2.61

2.62

0%

2.30

2.30

0%

03/22e

30.1

30.7

2%

10.4

10.5

1%

4.29

4.35

1%

2.30

2.30

0%

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Dividend excludes any special payment.

Valuation

An updated version of our comparative valuation table, which puts Record in the context of a group of UK asset managers, is shown in Exhibit 3. Record is differentiated by its role as a specialist currency and derivatives manager, but its fees are primarily based on the size of AUME so, like the asset managers, it is exposed to movements in underlying equity and fixed-income markets and flows.

Our table shows calendarised figures for 2021 and 2022 P/Es, 2021 EV/EBITDA and historical yields. Following marked strength in the share price over three months (up nearly 60%), Record shares trade above the average P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples but are not the most highly rated on either measure. Our estimates do not assume any uncrystallised performance fees or prospective net inflows beyond the mandates already announced. The dividend yield of 2.7% is below the peer average but, consistent with the dividend policy, there is the potential for this to be enhanced with a special dividend in due course and, on our estimate, the FY22 yield would be 3.6%. The board’s dividend policy is that the dividend should be at least covered by earnings, after allowing for anticipated increases in costs and regulatory capital requirements.

Exhibit 3: Comparing valuation with UK fund managers

Price

(p)

Market cap

(£m)

P/E 2021e

(x)

P/E 2022e

(x)

EV/EBITDA 2021e (x)

Dividend yield (%)

Ashmore

391

2,779

14.8

15.0

10.3

4.3

City of London Investment Group

540

274

12.3

11.9

N/A

5.6

Impax Asset Management

966

1,281

34.5

25.9

27.7

0.9

Jupiter

261

1,441

10.3

9.7

6.1

6.6

Liontrust

1,550

946

16.7

13.8

11.2

2.1

Man Group

162

3,264

11.1

10.0

7.8

2.5

Polar Capital

757

748

12.3

11.1

8.0

4.4

Schroders

3,539

9,489

16.9

15.7

11.7

3.2

Average

16.1

14.2

11.8

3.7

Record

84.1

165

21.5

18.0

15.5

2.7

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: P/E and EV/EBITDA on a calendar-year basis. Record’s dividend yield excludes the special dividend. Priced at 26 April 2021.


Exhibit 2: Financial summary

£'000s 

 

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

Year end 31 March

 

 

PROFIT & LOSS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

 

23,834

24,973

25,563

25,718

30,731

Operating expenses

 

 

(16,735)

(17,089)

(17,996)

(19,418)

(20,221)

Other income/(expense)

 

 

173

(8)

82

(36)

0

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

7,272

7,876

7,649

6,265

10,510

Finance income

 

 

56

113

88

37

38

Profit Before Tax

 

 

7,328

7,989

7,737

6,302

10,548

Taxation

(1,182)

(1,559)

(1,365)

(1,197)

(2,004)

Minority interests

 

 

0

0

48

60

30

Attributable profit

 

 

6,146

6,430

6,420

5,165

8,574

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue/AUME (excl. perf fees) bps

 

 

5.1

4.9

4.9

4.7

5.2

Operating margin (%)

 

 

30.5

31.5

29.9

24.4

34.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

 

 

206.5

198.1

197.1

197.1

197.1

Basic EPS (p)

 

 

3.03

3.27

3.26

2.63

4.36

EPS - diluted (p)

 

 

2.98

3.25

3.26

2.62

4.35

Dividend per share (p)

 

 

2.30

2.30

2.30

2.30

2.30

Special dividend per share (p)

 

 

0.50

0.69

0.41

0.00

0.70

Total dividend (p)

 

 

2.80

2.99

2.71

2.30

3.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Non-current assets

 

 

2,339

2,161

4,868

4,492

3,827

Intangible Assets

 

 

228

288

470

455

440

Tangible Assets

 

 

910

761

751

601

451

Investments

 

 

1,115

1,112

2,472

2,759

2,759

Other

 

 

86

0

1,175

677

177

Current Assets

 

 

29,737

31,427

31,149

27,941

32,403

Debtors

 

 

6,775

7,562

8,704

8,531

9,526

Cash

 

 

12,498

12,966

14,294

6,761

10,228

Money market instruments

 

 

10,198

10,735

7,958

12,491

12,491

Other

 

 

266

164

193

158

158

Current liabilities

 

 

(5,525)

(6,158)

(6,955)

(5,550)

(5,381)

Creditors

 

 

(2,630)

(2,736)

(3,009)

(2,840)

(3,171)

Financial liabilities

 

 

(2,467)

(2,621)

(2,191)

(1,800)

(1,800)

Other

 

 

(428)

(801)

(1,755)

(910)

(410)

Non-current liabilities

 

 

0

(29)

(901)

(353)

(353)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Assets

 

 

26,551

27,401

28,161

26,531

30,496

Minority interests

 

 

0

60

132

72

42

Net assets attributable to ordinary shareholders

 

26,551

27,341

28,029

26,459

30,454

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of shares at year end

 

 

199.1

199.1

199.1

199.1

199.1

NAV per share p

 

 

13.3

13.7

14.1

13.3

15.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CASH FLOW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

2,746

7,026

6,543

5,229

8,798

Capex

 

 

(236)

(72)

(243)

(140)

(140)

Cash flow from other investing activities

 

 

7,899

(561)

1,513

(5,384)

(112)

Dividends

 

 

(6,810)

(5,517)

(5,888)

(5,357)

(4,578)

Other financing activities

 

 

(10,367)

(613)

(943)

(2,026)

(500)

Other

 

 

146

205

346

145

0

Net Cash Flow

 

 

(6,622)

468

1,328

(7,533)

3,467

Opening cash/(net debt)

 

 

19,120

12,498

12,966

14,294

6,761

Closing net (debt)/cash

 

 

12,498

12,966

14,294

6,761

10,228

Closing net debt/(cash) inc money market instruments

22,696

23,701

22,252

19,252

22,719

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AUME

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Opening ($'bn)

 

 

58.2

62.2

57.3

58.6

80.1

Net new money flows

 

 

(1.2)

(4.5)

4.6

9.7

1.2

Market/other

 

 

5.2

(0.4)

(3.3)

11.8

0.4

Closing ($'bn)

 

 

62.2

57.3

58.6

80.1

81.7

Source: Record accounts, Edison Investment Research

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This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

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Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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United Kingdom

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Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Research: Investment Companies

Standard Life UK Smaller Companies — Managers bullish on the outlook for the trust

Standard Life UK Smaller Companies (SLS) is managed by Harry Nimmo and Abby Glennie at Aberdeen Standard Investments (ASI). They are positive on the outlook for UK small-cap stocks given the start of a new economic cycle. The managers are encouraged that several investee companies are issuing positive trading statements and reinstating their dividends, and while valuation is a secondary consideration they note that several of the trust’s holdings are currently trading on inexpensive valuation multiples. The managers explain that while SLS historically underperforms during periods of what they describe as ‘dash for trash’ when its quality, growth and momentum-focused stocks are less favoured by investors, these periods tend not to last long, and they are confident in the investment process’s ability to deliver above-average returns over the long term.

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