Strong Q318; FY18 forecasts unchanged
Group revenues: Q318 driven by 40% growth in Vera&John
Q318 revenues increased 8% y-o-y to £77.8m, with pressures in the UK fully offset by a 40% growth in Vera&John. The Jackpotjoy divisional revenues declined by 3%, largely due to weakness in Mandalay, as well as the closure of a few high-value accounts in Jackpotjoy UK. These closures are due to regulatory measures and have been well flagged across the industry.
At September 2018, average active customers per month grew 3% to 257,929 vs the prior year and average real money gaming revenue per month increased 12% to £25.4m. This equates to monthly real money gaming revenue per average active customer of £99, a y-o-y increase of 10%.
Group EBITDA: Strong Q318, boosted by international
Q318 group EBITDA was £28.8m, which represents a margin of 37.0% vs 35.5% in the prior year, demonstrating strong operational discipline in the midst of rising taxes and other regulatory burdens. With the benefit of its proprietary platform, Vera&John contributed EBITDA of £8.4m, which represents an EBITDA margin of 32.7% vs 27% in the prior year.
Management has stated it is comfortable with consensus expectations for FY18 and our forecasts remain unchanged.
Regulatory update: Elusive growth in UK until H219
The UK gaming sector has faced numerous regulatory challenges this year, including social responsibility, anti-money laundering and source of funds initiatives. We therefore expect growth in the UK gaming sector to remain elusive for the next year. This is in line with management’s statement that the impact of closed accounts will begin to annualise during H219 and, provided there are no further regulatory challenges, the Jackpotjoy segment should return to revenue growth thereafter.
Offsetting the underlying return to growth, however, the government has recently announced that RGD would increase from 15% to 21% from next October. For JPJ, this is expected to reduce EBITDA by £12m, but we note that smaller players (who also suffer from more reliance on bonuses) will feel a greater impact and therefore JPJ remains competitively very well positioned.
In Sweden, operators will be subject to an 18% tax on gross gaming revenues from January 2019, which is also fully in our forecasts.
Gamesys update: Not renewing anti-compete clause
The company continues to make progress with the internalisation of operational functions currently residing within Gamesys and expects to provide further details at FY18 results in March 2019. In the meantime, JPJ confirmed it does not intend to renew the Gamesys non-compete clause, because its own market-leading position is expected to fully withstand the potential competitive pressure from the launch of new challenger brands. This view is particularly reinforced by the current environment where smaller companies (or brands) are finding it harder to compete. We continue to believe the Gamesys-JPJ relationship is mutually beneficial and JPJ will continue to run its operations via the Gamesys platform.
Cash flow and balance sheet
EBITDA cash conversion of 115% produced operating cash flow of £33.0m. Due to the typical Q3 tax inflow from Malta, this is higher than the normal quarterly run-rate of c £25m. Also benefiting from the disposal of the social business, JPJ ended the quarter with an unrestricted cash balance of £71.5m and adjusted net debt of £307.6m. Unadjusted net debt was £298.8m (excluding £8.8m contingent consideration).
After the final major earnout payment to Gamesys (Q218) total contingent consideration has decreased from £59.6m at FY17 to £8.8m and, at Q318, adjusted annualised net debt/EBITDA ratio was 3.0x vs 3.6x at FY17. We forecast unadjusted net debt of £285m in 2018, with an adjusted net leverage of 2.8x, reaching the company’s target of 2.5x during 2019.
Jackpotjoy (67% of revenues)
Jackpotjoy divisional Q318 revenues declined 3% to £52.1m vs the prior year, largely as a result of the continuing decline in Mandalay, which has historically been more reliant on bonusing (a strategy that was particularly affected by the introduction of bonus taxes in FY17). The challenges in the online bingo-led market have been well flagged and, as expected, Jackpotjoy UK revenues also declined, following the closure of a few high-value accounts. To compensate, Starspins (UK) and Botemania (Spain) now comprise approximately 27% of divisional revenues vs 25% in Q218. During the quarter, JPJ disposed of the social business for £18m cash and our FY18 figures exclude all social revenues.
Following the budget announcement on 29 October, this division will be further affected by an increase in RGD from 15% to 21%. This increase will start next October and is expected to reduce JPJ’s EBTIDA by £12m annually.
In terms of profit, divisional EBITDA was £22.9m (44.0% margin), which was only marginally lower than the prior year, suggesting strong operational discipline in the face of increasing taxes and regulatory challenges.
Vera&John (33% of revenues)
JPJ has continued its impressive growth trajectory in international markets and Vera&John Q318 revenues increased by 40% y-o-y to £25.7m, equating to 41% in constant currency. As the business continues to scale and gain momentum in international markets, Q318 adjusted EBITDA of £8.4m represented an EBITDA margin of 32.7% (vs 27% in the prior year).
Largely as a result of this strong performance, international revenues now make up 44% of total revenues, which is line with JPJ’s strategy to expand beyond the UK.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
|
|
£m |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
2020e |
December |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue |
|
|
194.6 |
269.0 |
304.7 |
311.4 |
328.4 |
345.8 |
Cost of Sales |
|
|
(101.4) |
(130.7) |
(147.5) |
(159.6) |
(172.3) |
(185.3) |
Gross Profit |
|
|
93.3 |
138.3 |
157.2 |
151.9 |
156.1 |
160.5 |
EBITDA |
|
|
70.4 |
102.2 |
108.6 |
106.2 |
105.0 |
102.0 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
70.1 |
101.6 |
108.2 |
105.7 |
104.5 |
101.5 |
Intangible Amortisation |
|
|
(50.6) |
(55.5) |
(62.6) |
(61.3) |
(61.3) |
(61.3) |
Exceptional and other items |
|
|
(109.7) |
(80.3) |
(104.9) |
(20.1) |
0.6 |
0.6 |
Share based payments |
|
|
(2.9) |
(2.3) |
(1.4) |
(0.6) |
(0.6) |
(0.6) |
Operating Profit |
|
|
(93.1) |
(36.5) |
(60.8) |
23.8 |
43.2 |
40.3 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(24.0) |
(18.1) |
(30.0) |
(19.4) |
(14.0) |
(13.0) |
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
46.1 |
83.5 |
78.2 |
86.3 |
90.5 |
88.5 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
(114.2) |
(36.7) |
(65.8) |
7.0 |
29.2 |
27.3 |
Tax |
|
|
(0.5) |
0.1 |
(0.7) |
(3.0) |
(5.0) |
(5.0) |
Profit After Tax (norm) |
|
|
45.5 |
83.6 |
77.5 |
83.3 |
85.5 |
83.5 |
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
(114.8) |
(36.7) |
(66.5) |
4.0 |
24.2 |
22.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
61.2 |
71.2 |
73.9 |
74.6 |
75.0 |
75.5 |
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
74.4 |
117.3 |
104.9 |
111.7 |
114.0 |
110.7 |
EPS - normalised and fully diluted (p) |
|
73.1 |
112.6 |
103.9 |
110.6 |
112.9 |
109.6 |
EPS - (IFRS) (p) |
|
|
(187.6) |
(51.5) |
(90.0) |
5.3 |
32.3 |
29.5 |
Dividend per share (p) |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
40.0 |
45.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross Margin (%) |
|
|
47.9 |
51.4 |
51.6 |
48.8 |
47.5 |
46.4 |
EBITDA Margin (%) |
|
|
36.2 |
38.0 |
35.6 |
34.1 |
32.0 |
29.5 |
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
36.0 |
37.8 |
35.5 |
33.9 |
31.8 |
29.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fixed Assets |
|
|
674.3 |
652.3 |
595.9 |
538.2 |
480.4 |
422.7 |
Intangible Assets |
|
|
668.8 |
648.8 |
589.0 |
527.7 |
466.5 |
405.2 |
Tangible Assets |
|
|
0.2 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
4.8 |
8.3 |
11.9 |
Other long term assets |
|
|
5.3 |
2.6 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
Current Assets |
|
|
63.9 |
139.0 |
93.2 |
122.5 |
113.7 |
99.3 |
Stocks |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Debtors (incl swaps) |
|
|
25.6 |
62.0 |
26.0 |
28.0 |
30.0 |
32.0 |
Cash |
|
|
31.8 |
68.5 |
59.0 |
84.5 |
72.7 |
55.3 |
Player balances |
|
|
6.5 |
8.6 |
8.2 |
10.0 |
11.0 |
12.0 |
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(54.3) |
(154.9) |
(98.5) |
(44.3) |
(40.3) |
(38.3) |
Creditors |
|
|
(23.1) |
(41.3) |
(46.3) |
(40.0) |
(38.0) |
(36.0) |
Short term borrowings |
|
|
(25.2) |
(26.7) |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
Contingent consideration |
|
|
(6.0) |
(86.9) |
(51.9) |
(4.0) |
(2.0) |
(2.0) |
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(394.8) |
(397.1) |
(386.7) |
(373.5) |
(321.5) |
(271.5) |
Long term borrowings |
|
|
(189.3) |
(347.4) |
(369.5) |
(369.5) |
(319.5) |
(269.5) |
Contingent consideration |
|
|
(203.6) |
(33.3) |
(7.7) |
(2.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Other long term liabilities |
|
|
(2.0) |
(16.4) |
(9.4) |
(2.0) |
(2.0) |
(2.0) |
Net Assets |
|
|
289.0 |
239.4 |
204.1 |
242.9 |
232.4 |
212.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
23.3 |
84.2 |
102.0 |
104.2 |
96.0 |
93.0 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(24.0) |
(17.5) |
(30.9) |
(19.4) |
(14.0) |
(13.0) |
Tax |
|
|
(0.5) |
(1.2) |
(1.0) |
(3.0) |
(5.0) |
(5.0) |
Capex |
|
|
(2.5) |
(2.5) |
(3.2) |
(4.0) |
(4.0) |
(4.0) |
Acquisitions (inc earn-outs) |
|
|
(355.6) |
(156.3) |
(94.2) |
(52.4) |
(5.0) |
(5.0) |
Financing |
|
|
203.7 |
(29.6) |
22.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Dividends |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(29.7) |
(33.4) |
Net Cash Flow |
|
|
(155.6) |
(122.9) |
(5.2) |
25.5 |
38.2 |
32.6 |
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
27.1 |
182.7 |
305.6 |
310.7 |
285.2 |
247.0 |
HP finance leases initiated |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Other |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
182.7 |
305.6 |
310.7 |
285.2 |
247.0 |
214.4 |
NPV of outstanding earnouts/ other |
|
209.5 |
140.8 |
76.6 |
10.0 |
5.0 |
0.0 |
Currency swaps |
|
|
(4.7) |
(38.2) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Adjusted net debt |
|
|
387.5 |
408.1 |
387.3 |
295.3 |
252.0 |
214.4 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by JPJ Group plc and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent. |
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960 Schumannstrasse 34b 60325 Frankfurt Germany |
London +44 (0)20 3077 5700 280 High Holborn London, WC1V 7EE United Kingdom |
New York +1 646 653 7026 295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor 10017, New York US |
Sydney+61 (0)2 8249 8342 Level 4, Office 1205 95 Pitt Street, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia |
|
Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by JPJ Group plc and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent. |
Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960 Schumannstrasse 34b 60325 Frankfurt Germany |
London +44 (0)20 3077 5700 280 High Holborn London, WC1V 7EE United Kingdom |
New York +1 646 653 7026 295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor 10017, New York US |
Sydney+61 (0)2 8249 8342 Level 4, Office 1205 95 Pitt Street, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia |
Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960 Schumannstrasse 34b 60325 Frankfurt Germany |
London +44 (0)20 3077 5700 280 High Holborn London, WC1V 7EE United Kingdom |
New York +1 646 653 7026 295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor 10017, New York US |
Sydney+61 (0)2 8249 8342 Level 4, Office 1205 95 Pitt Street, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia |
|
