Stratec Biomedical
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Stratec Biomedical |
Excellent strategic fit with integrated consumables |
Sony DADC BioSciences acquisition |
Healthcare equipment & services |
15 June 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
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Stratec Biomedical is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Stratec, a designer and builder of automated OEM diagnostic systems, has announced its intention to acquire an Austrian business that designs and manufactures complex precision consumables for high-end biomedical and diagnostic systems. This is an excellent strategic fit as it will allow Stratec to integrate high-value consumables into system designs and accumulate recurring revenues: Stratec expects a 20% CAGR to 2020 on DADC 2015 sales of €17m. Stratec is experiencing reduced Chinese orders and the guided 5% EBIT of DADC may lower the 2017 EBIT margin to 17%.
Year |
Revenue |
EBIT |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/14 |
144.9 |
24.1 |
2.16 |
0.70 |
23.1 |
1.4 |
12/15 |
146.9 |
26.9 |
2.53 |
0.75 |
19.7 |
1.5 |
12/16e |
183.5 |
30.5 |
2.49 |
0.80 |
20.0 |
1.6 |
12/17e |
220.1 |
36.1 |
2.86 |
0.85 |
17.4 |
1.7 |
Note: EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. 2015 revenues and EBIT as disclosed.
Consumables fit into Stratec’s system solutions
Consumables are often taken for granted and seen as low value. In reality, for the advanced new systems now in use, they are an integral part of the test and crucial to accuracy. For example, if liquid biopsy for cancer becomes mainstream, users will need millions of high-precision consumables costing €30-100 each. As yet DADC BioSciences, a Sony subsidiary, is waiting for developed systems, like the Stratec-produced Simoa from Quanterix, to build sales and use rates. Once this happens, Stratec should see major benefits but timing is uncertain. DADC sales are now annualised at €17m with about 5% EBIT margin according to Stratec. This makes the €30m cash acquisition price 1.8x sales and about 25x EBIT (exact figures are not disclosed). This appears a good price for an acquisition with major opportunities and excellent strategic fit. Short term it will limit the EBIT margin.
FY15 and Q1 results
2015 unit sales fell by 11.9% but a shift to complex systems increased unit value by 6%. Subsidiary sales rose about 70% (after consolidation) yielding €9.6m largely offsetting this. Service part sales rose 5% to €35.6m, boosting EBIT margin to 18.3% (17% in 2014 excluding one-off charges). Stratec also reported recognised development revenues of €16.4m up from €14.6m so total revenues rose 1.4%. Management has guided on lower 2016 core business expectations due to China and Q1 saw sales of €31.2m, down 10% on Q114. We expect sales to develop as the year progresses and forecast €152m in pre-acquisition, core revenue.
Valuation: Acquisition brings medium-term value
Stratec’s management will issue new guidance either with Q2 results in late July or after the DADC acquisition completes. The initial revised Edison forecast indicates consolidated 2016 revenues of €183.5m rising with growth and full consolidation to €220m in 2017. The overall 2017 EBIT margin may be around 16.5% if the DADC margin improves to about 10%. On this forecast, the shares are trading on a prospective 2017 normalised P/E of 17.4x. A bridge loan of €50m is in forecasts.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
€'000s |
2014 |
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
|
|
Revenue |
144,860 |
146,886 |
183,449 |
220,140 |
Cost of Sales |
(99,924) |
(91,854) |
(113,326) |
(132,551) |
Gross Profit |
44,936 |
55,032 |
70,124 |
87,589 |
EBITDA |
31,130 |
36,059 |
38,005 |
43,564 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
29,656 |
34,559 |
36,505 |
42,064 |
Intangible Amortisation |
(6,036) |
(6,000) |
(6,000) |
(6,000) |
Exceptionals |
(624) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Other |
1,056 |
(1,684) |
0 |
0 |
EBIT |
24,052 |
26,875 |
30,505 |
36,064 |
EBIT % |
16.6% |
18.3% |
16.6% |
16.4% |
Net Interest |
2 |
298 |
(883) |
(882) |
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
29,658 |
34,857 |
35,622 |
41,182 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
24,054 |
27,173 |
29,622 |
35,182 |
Tax |
(4,287) |
(5,089) |
(6,221) |
(7,388) |
Profit After Tax (norm) |
25,371 |
29,768 |
29,401 |
33,795 |
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
19,767 |
22,084 |
23,401 |
27,794 |
|
|
|
|
|
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
11.8 |
11.8 |
11.8 |
11.8 |
EPS - normalised (c) |
215.6 |
252.9 |
248.9 |
286.1 |
EPS - (IFRS) (c) |
167.9 |
187.6 |
198.1 |
235.3 |
Dividend per share (c) |
70.00 |
75.00 |
80.00 |
85.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
Gross Margin (%) |
31% |
37% |
38% |
40% |
EBITDA Margin (%) |
21% |
25% |
21% |
20% |
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
20% |
24% |
20% |
19% |
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
Fixed Assets |
47,739 |
50,792 |
149,230 |
150,668 |
Intangible Assets |
30,262 |
30,992 |
115,792 |
113,292 |
Tangible Assets |
15,954 |
19,595 |
33,233 |
37,171 |
Investments |
1,523 |
205 |
205 |
205 |
Current Assets |
90,009 |
108,147 |
67,804 |
81,134 |
Stocks |
18,066 |
16,019 |
19,900 |
21,150 |
Debtors |
24,430 |
24,045 |
28,000 |
30,000 |
Cash |
46,636 |
56,415 |
10,223 |
21,303 |
Other (inc ongoing services) |
877 |
11,668 |
9,681 |
8,681 |
Current Liabilities |
(15,586) |
(18,667) |
(16,296) |
(16,796) |
Creditors |
(13,137) |
(14,851) |
(12,480) |
(12,980) |
Short term borrowings |
(2,449) |
(3,816) |
(3,816) |
(3,816) |
Long Term Liabilities |
(10,110) |
(9,992) |
(55,905) |
(51,818) |
Long term borrowings |
(4,483) |
(4,328) |
(50,241) |
(46,154) |
Other long term liabilities (tax) |
(5,627) |
(5,664) |
(5,664) |
(5,664) |
Net Assets |
112,052 |
130,280 |
144,833 |
163,188 |
|
|
|
|
|
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
Operating Cash Flow |
38,789 |
32,275 |
29,902 |
41,931 |
Net Interest |
(36) |
140 |
(1,000) |
(999) |
Tax |
999 |
(6,382) |
(6,221) |
(7,388) |
Capex |
(1,474) |
(5,438) |
(5,438) |
(5,438) |
Intangible invetsment |
(5,215) |
(3,426) |
(3,500) |
(3,500) |
Acquisitions/disposals |
176 |
157 |
(97,000) |
0 |
Financing |
(1,262) |
(416) |
46,513 |
(3,487) |
Dividends |
(7,056) |
(8,248) |
(9,448) |
(10,039) |
Net Cash Flow |
24,921 |
8,662 |
(46,192) |
11,080 |
Opening net debt/(cash) |
(12,196) |
(39,704) |
(48,271) |
43,834 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Other |
2,587 |
(95) |
(45,913) |
4,087 |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
(39,704) |
(48,271) |
43,834 |
28,667 |
Source: Stratec Biomedical reports, Edison Investment Research forecasts. Note: Forecasts are preliminary and will be revised following new management guidance and additional financial data in Q316. New acquisitions are consolidated from the known or expected completion dates in 2016. A bridging loan of €50m, as indicated by Stratec management, has been included in 2016 forecasts to part fund the acquisitions. Stratec will set a financing strategy once the DADC acquisition has completed.
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