OPAP — Sports and lottery success in Q125

OPAP (ASE: OPAP)

Last close As at 03/06/2025

EUR19.00

0.06 (0.32%)

Market capitalisation

EUR7,009m

More on this equity

Research: Consumer

OPAP — Sports and lottery success in Q125

While OPAP’s Q125 results include some favourable one-offs, the highest-ever lottery jackpot and operator-friendly results in sports betting, there is a clear message of growing market share in non-exclusive online games and retail continues to provide low growth. With significant cash generation and a conservative balance sheet, shareholders can look forward to attractive cash returns with a high dividend yield and a potential enhanced share buyback.

Russell Pointon

Written by

Russell Pointon

Director of Content, Consumer and Media

Retail

Q125 results

2 June 2025

Price €18.94
Market cap €6,792m

Net cash/(debt) at 31 March 2025

€2.6m

Shares in issue

358.6m
Free float 49.8%
Code OPAP
Primary exchange ATHENS
Secondary exchange N/A
Price Performance
% 1m 3m 12m
Abs 0.8 15.4 41.8
52-week high/low €20.7 €13.2

Business description

OPAP was founded in 1958 as the Greek national lottery and is the exclusive licensed operator of all numerical lotteries, sports betting, instant and passives, video lottery terminals and horse racing. OPAP listed in 2001 and was fully privatised in 2013. Allwyn has a 50.2% stake and significant board representation.

Next events

H125 results

3 September 2025

Q325 results

19 November 2025

Analyst

Russell Pointon
+44 (0)20 3077 5700

OPAP is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Note: GGR is gross gaming revenue. EPS is normalised excluding exceptional items and share-based payments.

Year end GGR (€m) EBITDA (€m) EPS (€) DPS (€) P/E (x) Yield (%)
12/23 2,087.7 745.3 1.17 1.85 16.2 9.8
12/24 2,296.2 827.9 1.36 1.40 13.9 7.4
12/25e 2,336.4 832.0 1.39 1.38 13.6 7.3
12/26e 2,399.4 849.9 1.44 1.43 13.1 7.6

Strong growth against relatively easy comparative

OPAP’s Q125 GGR y-o-y growth of 8.2% to €595m included continued strong growth in online of 20%, the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, complemented by relatively good growth in retail of c 4%. Growth was aided by the highest-ever Tzoker jackpot, and sports betting helped via the change in structure of the UEFA Champions League as well as operator-friendly results. The only significant changes in cost ratios relative to GGR were a reduction in commissions, due to the increased online contribution, offset by lower income related to the concession extension. As a result, the GGR growth translated to 8.8% growth in EBITDA, to €207m. There was a significant increase in free cash generation on an absolute basis and relative to GGR with more favourable working capital flows and tax payments, which took the period-end net debt position to c €24m including IFRS 16 liabilities or a net cash position of €2.6m excluding those liabilities (€157m at end FY24). Post the period end, the final FY24 dividend of €0.8/share was paid in May 2025 at a cost of €287m. Following the AGM, OPAP has the authority to buy back further shares: up to 5% of the outstanding shares from June 2025–27, subject to a maximum price of €25/share. This includes the c 3% of outstanding shares already repurchased and held in treasury.

No change to FY25 guidance

Management has reiterated its FY25 guidance. The Q124 comparative of 4% provides the easiest comparative for the year, with OPAP facing high single-digit/double-digit comparative growth rates from Q224, Q324 and Q424. Our FY25 estimates imply a modest year-on-year reduction in GGR and a c 3% reduction in EBITDA in the remainder of the financial year. We make no changes to our underlying estimates but do incorporate the share buyback on a pro rata basis.

Valuation: Attractive dividend yield

OPAP’s prospective P/E multiple is in line with its peers’ median. We believe this reflects a balance of lower revenue growth – we forecast 2% GGR growth in FY25 versus consensus forecasts for peers of 8% – and its higher profitability, we forecast a c 30% EBIT margin versus consensus median of mid-teens for peers. Its higher profitability enables a more attractive dividend yield of c 7% versus peers at 2%.

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