AAC Clyde Space — Solid start to the year with further order growth

AAC Clyde Space (OMX: AAC)

Last close As at 19/06/2024

SEK40.40

−1.20 (−2.88%)

Market capitalisation

SEK231m

More on this equity

Research: Industrials

AAC Clyde Space — Solid start to the year with further order growth

AAC Clyde Space offers exposure to the fast-growing low Earth orbit space market. A solid start to the year and continued order momentum are encouraging. We also note the internal restructuring to promote delivery of the group’s products and services. We expect this combination to drive an improving performance, albeit within the lumpy nature of the business, in turn improving investor confidence and the stock’s valuation.

David Larkam

Written by

David Larkam

Analyst, Industrials

Industrials

AAC Clyde Space

Solid start to the year with further order growth

Q124 results

Aerospace and defence

17 May 2024

Price

SEK45.0

Market cap

SEK257m

SEK10.7/$, SEK13.5/£

Adjusted net cash (SEKm) at 31 March 2024 (gross cash SEK38.4m)

13.0

Shares in issue

5.7m

Free float

88.0%

Code

AAC

Primary exchange

Nasdaq First North Premier Growth Market

Secondary exchange

OTCQX

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(9.1)

(7.8)

(28.5)

Rel (local)

(14.2)

(15.6)

(39.8)

52-week high/low

SEK65.2

SEK27.5

Business description

Headquartered in Sweden, AAC Clyde Space is a world leader in nanosatellite end-to-end solutions, subsystems, platforms, services and components, including supply to third parties. It has production and development operations in Sweden, Scotland, the Netherlands, the United States and Africa.

Next events

Q224 results

15 August 2024

Q324 results

7 November 2024

Analyst

David Larkam

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

AAC Clyde Space is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

AAC Clyde Space offers exposure to the fast-growing low Earth orbit space market. A solid start to the year and continued order momentum are encouraging. We also note the internal restructuring to promote delivery of the group’s products and services. We expect this combination to drive an improving performance, albeit within the lumpy nature of the business, in turn improving investor confidence and the stock’s valuation.

Year end

Revenue (SEKm)

PBT*
(SEK)

EPS*
(SEK)

DPS
(SEK)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/22

196.7

(23.2)

(5.6)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/23

276.6

(18.4)

(4.2)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/24e

465.4

12.4

2.1

0.0

21.4

N/A

12/25e

647.6

52.7

8.7

0.0

5.2

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Solid performance assisted by insurance claim

Sales increased 12% to SEK97.0m in Q124, assisted by the receipt of a SEK13.5m insurance settlement relating to the Kelpie-1 satellite delivering less data than expected, thereby not achieving key performance criteria. EBITDA was SEK12.7m with a 17% margin, benefiting from SEK12.6m from the insurance settlement. Costs were broadly flat in the period, with the exception of personnel costs and a SEK6.5m impairment, again associated with the insurance settlement. Divisional performance was mixed reflecting the normal lumpiness, with Data & Services and Missions both up strongly but the largest division, Products, weaker. More interesting has been the internal reorganisation along functional lines, which is intended to add focus and promote delivery of products and services. The loss for the period reduced from SEK5.9m to SEK3.4m. Net cash generation from operations increased from SEK0.2m to SEK12.2m. After investment in working capital of SEK25.3m and SEK7.9m in assets, net cash outflow was SEK22.0m, comparable to the SEK13.2m outflow seen in Q123. Cash at the end of the period stood at SEK38.4m.

Order book achieves another record

The order book continued to grow, achieving another record level of SEK654m, up from SEK630m at the year end and SEK460m at Q123. After significant growth in Q423, orders in the Products division were relatively flat with growth coming in the Missions and Data & Services divisions, the latter being particularly important given its higher margin potential. Along with Q1 sales of SEK97m, the order position underpins management’s previous guidance for annual net sales of between SEK430m and SEK500m.

Valuation: Significant upside potential remains

Our valuation of SEK301 per share using a DCF is unchanged. Further details are available in our update note published on 4 March.

Q1 results review

Overview

Sales were up 12%, assisted by an increase in own work capitalised. The greatest delta was from the receipt of SEK13.5m in insurance relating to the Kelpie-1 satellite delivering less data than expected, thereby not achieving key performance criteria. This also benefited EBITDA by SEK12.6m, accounting for the increase from SEK1.7m in Q123 to SEK12.7m. There was an associated impairment charge of SEK6.5m within the depreciation and amortisation charge, reducing the benefit at the EBIT level. Costs were broadly flat in the period, with the exception of personnel costs primarily due to underlying increases, with the number of employees up marginally from 189 to 190. The overall loss before tax reduced from SEK5.9m to SEK3.4m.

Net cash from operations increased to SEK12.2m from SEK0.2m. After investment in working capital of SEK25.3m and SEK7.9m in assets (tangible and intangible), the net cash outflow was SEK22.0m, comparable to the SEK13.2m outflow seen in Q123. Cash at the end of the period was SEK38.4m, with bank overdrafts of SEK25.4m utilised.

Exhibit 1: Summary performance

SEKm

Q123

Q124

Change

By Activity

Total core sales

73.901

71.439

-3%

Other income

8.690

6.085

-30%

Own work capitalised

4.514

19.851

340%

Net sales

87.105

97.375

12%

Raw materials & subcontractors

(31.817)

(31.183)

-2%

Personnel costs

(40.060)

(42.053)

5%

Other external expenses

(11.483)

(10.170)

-11%

Other operating expenses

(2.034)

(1.254)

-38%

EBITDA

1.711

12.715

643%

Depreciation & amortisation

(7.137)

(16.536)

132%

Underlying EBIT

(5.426)

(3.821)

-30%

Financing income/(costs)

(0.480)

0.460

-196%

Underlying PBT

(5.906)

(3.361)

-43%

EPS (SEK)

(1.58)

(0.56)

-65%

Gross Cash

39.060

38.356

-2%

Bank overdraft

(18.500)

(25.400)

37%

Net cash/(debt)

20.560

12.956

-37%

Source: AAC Clyde Space, Edison Investment Research

Divisional performance

Management has implemented a reorganisation programme along functional lines to assist internal focus and delivery. Given the c 40% growth anticipated in the year, operational delivery is obviously critical. Data & Services benefited from insurance receipts of SEK13.5m, which also had a clear benefit to EBITDA. Missions posted strong growth (+180%) and positive EBITDA leverage, while Products sales declined by 29% with an inevitable negative impact on EBITDA.

Exhibit 2: Quarterly divisional breakdown

SEKm

Q123

Q124

Change

Sales by Division

AAC Data & Services

4.525

14.647

224%

AAC Missions

6.996

19.62

180%

AAC Products

67.478

47.887

-29%

Eliminations

(5.098)

(10.715)

110%

Total core sales

73.901

71.439

-3%

EBITDA by division

AAC Data & Services

1.263

12.629

900%

AAC Missions

(4.376)

(0.621)

-86%

AAC Products

10.561

6.029

-43%

Other segments

(5.767)

(5.707)

-1%

Eliminations

0.03

0.385

1,183%

Total EBITDA

1.711

12.715

643%

EBITDA margin by division

AAC Data & Services

27.9%

86.2%

AAC Missions

-62.6%

-3.2%

AAC Products

15.7%

12.6%

Group EBITDA margin

2.3%

17.8%

Source: AAC Clyde Space

Order book and intake

The order book continued to grow strongly to record levels of SEK654m, up from SEK630m at the year-end and SEK460m at the end of Q123. Major new contract announcements in the period included:

22 January 2024: AAC won an order worth c SEK9.9m for its Sirius range of onboard computers and services, designed for low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation missions, with delivery planned for Q424.

24 January 2024: AAC Clyde Space (Hyperion), partnered with TNO, successfully demonstrated that the laser satellite communications terminal (SmallCAT) transfers data onboard a spacecraft in LEO to Earth, with AAC responsible for contributing electronics and firmware components. A commercial version for use in nanosatellites, CubeCAT (1.3kg, 10cm3), is currently being developed. This presents a promising revenue opportunity for AAC with the accelerating use of laser communication technologies (infrared wavelength) to send satellite data directly to Earth, as an alternative to traditional radio frequency communication.

15 February 2024: Intuitive Machines’ Nova-C spacecraft (Odysseus) was successfully launched on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket incorporating AAC’s proprietary Starbuck power system, as part of NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services initiative. This is focused on the investigation of space weather and lunar surface interactions, in addition to radio astronomy. Odysseus successfully soft landed on the moon eight days later.

28 February 2024: AAC Space Africa successfully secured its first satellite order, valued at c SEK2.3m and scheduled for delivery in June 2024. This marks a pivotal achievement in the company’s expansion in the African market.

4 March 2024: AAC secured a c SEK56.2m order for 11 satellite kits from LusoSpace to be delivered in Q424. These will be used to build VDES-equipped EPIC 8U satellites as a maritime communication system, set to be launched in late 2025.

This positive trend has continued into Q2:

26 April 2024: AAC's subsidiary Hyperion and its partners won a project sponsored by the Dutch National Growth Fund. AAC is to develop its existing CubeCAT V1 1Gbps system to a speed of 10Gbps to generate a next-generation terminal to enable space-to-ground communication between small satellites and optical ground stations. The total value of the project is €3.5m (c SEK40.4m) and is planned to be finalised during the third quarter 2026.

15 May 2024: AAC won the first order for its 16U EPIC satellite as part of the ESA OPS-SAT VOLT mission, which aims to test and evaluate ground-breaking, real-time techniques and technologies with a focus on optical and quantum direct to Earth communication. The total order value is €2.3m (c SEK27.0m) and is due be delivered and commissioned by June 2026.

Exhibit 3: Group order book (SEKm)

Source: AAC Clyde Space, Edison Investment Research

Outlook and expectations

There are no changes to our forecasts for the year. Management’s guidance for FY24 at the time of the FY23 results in March was for ‘net sales between SEK430m and SEK500m and EBITDA 5–10%’, which the Q1 results (sales of SEK97m and EBITDA margin of 17.8%) support, albeit assisted by the one-off insurance payment.

Exhibit 4: Financial summary

SEKm

2021

2022

2023

2024e

2025e

Year-end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

 

Net sales

 

 

180.0

196.7

276.6

465.4

647.6

Own work capitalised and other operating income

30.9

47.0

48.8

42.6

46.7

Group income

210.8

243.7

325.5

508.0

694.2

EBITDA

 

 

(12.4)

(30.0)

1.0

32.9

79.6

Operating Profit (before amort. and except).

 

(21.9)

(40.3)

(11.6)

16.5

60.3

Intangible Amortisation

(0.9)

(0.7)

(2.6)

(3.4)

(4.2)

Exceptionals

(15.8)

(26.0)

(22.7)

(16.2)

(15.5)

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Operating Profit

(38.6)

(67.0)

(36.8)

(3.1)

40.6

Net Interest

(4.2)

17.9

(4.2)

(0.7)

(3.4)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(27.0)

(23.2)

(18.4)

12.4

52.7

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(42.8)

(49.1)

(41.1)

(3.7)

37.1

Tax

3.3

2.6

(0.5)

0.2

(1.9)

Profit After Tax (norm)

(24.9)

(22.0)

(20.032)

11.8

50.0

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(39.5)

(46.5)

(41.6)

(3.5)

35.3

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

3.5

3.9

4.8

5.7

5.7

EPS - fully diluted (SEK)

 

 

(7.17)

(5.58)

(4.16)

2.09

8.75

EPS - normalised (SEK)

 

 

(7.17)

(5.58)

(4.15)

2.08

8.72

EPS - (IFRS) (SEK)

 

 

(11.36)

(11.82)

(8.69)

(0.60)

6.16

Dividend per share (SEK)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

-6.9

-15.2

0.4

7.1

12.3

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

-12.2

-20.5

-4.2

3.5

9.3

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

681.0

728.6

746.2

773.9

807.8

Intangible Assets

639.5

665.5

672.6

677.6

686.6

Tangible Assets

26.4

46.4

56.7

80.5

106.4

Right of use asset

15.1

16.8

16.8

15.8

14.8

Investments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Assets

 

 

193.4

152.8

192.2

145.0

214.7

Stocks

13.2

20.2

22.1

35.3

46.7

Debtors

23.0

24.5

23.5

37.6

49.7

Cash

96.1

52.1

59.5

39.5

79.5

Other

61.1

56.0

87.1

32.6

38.9

Current Liabilities

 

 

(129.2)

(170.2)

(243.9)

(200.3)

(248.7)

Creditors

(128.5)

(170.2)

(218.7)

(200.3)

(248.7)

Short term borrowings

(0.6)

0.0

(25.2)

0.0

0.0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(16.6)

(17.8)

(16.7)

(44.9)

(64.8)

Long term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

(28.1)

(48.0)

Lease liabilities

(15.1)

(16.5)

(15.7)

(15.7)

(15.7)

Other long term liabilities

(1.5)

(1.2)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(1.1)

Net Assets

 

 

728.6

693.5

677.7

673.8

709.1

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(37.3)

(13.1)

5.1

36.1

93.1

Net Interest

(0.2)

18.3

(0.1)

0.3

(2.4)

Tax

2.1

1.2

(1.6)

(0.6)

(2.6)

Capex

(29.2)

(40.9)

(47.7)

(59.7)

(68.9)

Acquisitions/disposals

2.6

(43.7)

4.1

1.0

1.0

Financing

94.1

33.4

35.9

0.0

0.0

Dividends

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

32.0

(44.7)

(4.3)

(22.9)

20.1

Opening net debt/(cash) excluding lease liabilities

(62.2)

(95.5)

(52.1)

(34.3)

(11.5)

HP finance leases initiated

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.0

Other

1.3

1.3

(13.5)

0.0

(0.0)

Closing net debt/(cash) excluding lease liabilities

(95.5)

(52.1)

(34.3)

(11.5)

(31.5)

Net financial liabilities including lease liabilities

(80.4)

(35.6)

(18.7)

4.2

(16.9)

Source: AAC Clyde Space accounts, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by AAC Clyde Space and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by AAC Clyde Space. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by AAC Clyde Space and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by AAC Clyde Space. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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Research: TMT

Tinexta — Typical seasonality in Q124

Tinexta’s Q124 results showed good progress in the two divisions that typically demonstrate more consistent (through the year) growth, Cyber Security and Digital Trust, which management expects to deliver higher growth over the next few years. Business Innovation demonstrated its typical seasonality and management therefore remains confident about the outlook for the year.

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