Custodian Property Income REIT — Significant uplift in fully covered DPS

Custodian Property Income REIT (LSE: CREI)

Last close As at 29/11/2024

GBP0.81

0.00 (0.00%)

Market capitalisation

GBP358m

More on this equity

Research: Real Estate

Custodian Property Income REIT — Significant uplift in fully covered DPS

Custodian Property Income REIT’s (CREI’s) Q225 trading update points to strong H1 performance when results are released in December. With income growth supported by leasing progress and rental growth, DPS (+9% y-o-y) is fully covered. Reflecting improved investment market sentiment and asset management, portfolio valuations show early signs of recovery. CREI expects this to continue.

Martyn King

Written by

Martyn King

Director, Financials

Real Estate

Custodian Property Income REIT

Significant uplift in fully covered DPS

Q225 update

Real estate

13 November 2024

Price

77p

Market cap

£340m

Net debt (£m) at 30 September 2024
(excluding restricted cash)

166.6

Net LTV as at 30 September 2024

28.6%

Shares in issue

440.9m

Free float

90.1%

Code

CREI

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(7.2)

2.0

(10.5)

Rel (local)

(4.7)

4.1

(18.6)

52-week high/low

92p

65p

Business description

Custodian Property Income REIT is a London Main Market-listed REIT focused on smaller lot-size commercial properties across the UK regions outside London. It is income focused, with a commitment to pay a high but sustainable and covered dividend, with the potential for capital growth.

Next events

H125 results announcement

Exp. Dec. 20240

Analyst

Martyn King

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Custodian Property Income REIT is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Custodian Property Income REIT’s (CREI’s) Q225 trading update points to strong H1 performance when results are released in December. With income growth supported by leasing progress and rental growth, DPS (+9% y-o-y) is fully covered. Reflecting improved investment market sentiment and asset management, portfolio valuations show early signs of recovery. CREI expects this to continue.

Year end

Net rental income (£m)

EPRA earnings* (£m)

EPRA
EPS* (p)

NAV/**
share (p)

DPS
(p)

P/NAV**
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/23

37.1

24.8

5.6

99.3

5.50

0.79

7.1

03/24

38.9

25.7

5.8

93.4

5.80

0.83

7.4

03/25e

40.2

27.2

6.2

94.1

6.00

0.83

7.7

03/26e

40.8

27.5

6.2

94.3

6.12

0.83

7.8

Note: *Excludes revaluation gains/losses and other exceptional items. **Defined as EPRA net tangible assets (EPRA NTA) per share.

Occupier strength and asset management

On a like-for-like basis, the portfolio estimated rental value (ERV) increased 0.8% in Q225 (Q1: 1.0%). Passing rent increased 1.5% (Q1: 1.2%), driven by positive leasing events, in aggregate at rents well above previous passing rents and/or ERV. With portfolio ERV of £49.3m compared with passing rent of £44.3m, reversionary upside remains strong, and borrowing costs are mostly fixed. Selective property disposals are accretive to earnings and NAV, with proceeds supporting further debt reduction. Property valuations edged up in Q2 and CREI’s investment manager is increasingly confident that the market has bottomed and that valuations will gradually pick up. H125 NAV total return of 3.5% was driven by DPS paid.

Diversified exposure to a market recovery

Across most of the UK commercial property market, but especially the industrial sector, robust occupier demand has underpinned rental growth. Meanwhile, sector values are down c 20% from their peak and with interest rates now declining, investment market sentiment is improving. Recent private equity investment in the REIT sector is a positive indicator for a building recovery. CREI provides investors with diversified UK commercial property exposure, within a closed-end fund structure. It is differentiated by an enhanced income strategy that targets higher- yielding, smaller, regional properties, with strong income characteristics, let to predominantly institutional-grade tenants. Income risk is spread across a wide number of properties and tenants, the vast majority of which are externally classified as having better than average risk. Although diversified, the portfolio is not passively positioned and is actively managed. The weighting towards industrial and retail warehouse assets is strong.

Valuation: Growing DPS and attractive yield

Dividends are fully covered and CREI’s FY25 DPS target represents an attractive yield of 7.7%, with the potential for capital growth, while the discount to FY24 NAV is 17%.

H125 financial performance

3.5% NAV total return

Aggregate quarterly dividends declared in H125 of 3.0p (an increase of 9% versus H124) were fully covered by EPRA earnings of approximately £13.3m or 3.0p per share (H124: £13.0m or 2.9p per share; H224: £12.8m or 2.9p per share). NAV per share increased in Q225 after a slight dip in Q125 and was marginally up over the half year. NAV total return in H125 was 3.5% or an annualised 7.1%.

Exhibit 1: Quarterly performance

Q124

Q224

Q324

Q424

Q125

Q225

H125

£m unless stated otherwise

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24

Sep-24

Opening NAV

437.6

434.9

422.8

411.2

411.8

410.3

411.8

Valuation movement

(3.3)

(12.3)

(11.0)

(0.5)

(1.0)

2.2

1.2

Profit/(loss) on disposal

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.4

0.2

(0.3)

(0.1)

Acquisition costs

0.0

0.0

(0.6)

(0.9)

0.0

0.0

0.0

EPRA earnings

6.7

6.3

6.1

6.7

6.7

6.6

13.3

Dividends paid

(6.1)

(6.1)

(6.1)

(6.1)

(7.4)

(6.6)

(14.0)

Closing NAV

434.9

422.8

411.2

411.8

410.3

412.2

412.2

NAV per share (p)

98.6

95.9

93.3

93.4

93.1

93.5

93.5

EPRA EPS (p)

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

3.0

DPS declared (p)

1.375

1.375

1.375

1.375

1.500

1.500

3.0

Special DPS declared (p)

-

-

-

0.300

-

-

-

-

NAV total return*

0.7%

-1.3%

-1.3%

1.6%

1.5%

2.0%

3.5%

Source: Custodian Property Income REIT unaudited data, Edison Investment Research. Note: *NAV total return is based on DPS paid (not declared) in the period.

The table below shows the quarterly NAV total returns (the change in NAV adjusted for dividends paid) in more detail. In line with CREI’s income-focused strategy, dividends continue to consistently drive returns but with property investment market showing signs of improvement, capital return was also positive in Q225, and slightly so for H125. Reflecting CREI’s income-focused strategy and the broad, market-wide weakness of property values in the past two years, dividends paid have accounted for all of CREI’s aggregate c 57% accounting returns since listing in March 2015, contributing an average 4.7% pa.

Exhibit 2: NAV total return by quarter

Q124

Q224

Q324

Q424

Q125

Q225

H125*

Pence per share (p) unless stated otherwise

Jun-23

Sep-23

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-24

Sep-24

Sep-24

Opening NAV per share

99.3

98.6

95.9

93.3

93.4

93.1

93.4

Closing NAV per share

98.6

95.9

93.3

93.4

93.1

93.5

93.5

Dividends paid per share

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.7

1.5

3.2

Dividend return

1.4%

1.4%

1.4%

1.5%

1.8%

1.6%

3.4%

Capital return

-0.7%

-2.7%

-2.7%

0.1%

-0.3%

0.4%

0.1%

NAV total return

0.7%

-1.3%

-1.3%

1.6%

1.5%

2.0%

3.5%

Source: Custodian Property Income REIT data, Edison Investment Research. Note: *H125 unaudited.

The relative stability of income returns versus more volatile and uncertain capital returns can be seen clearly in the chart below.

Exhibit 3: Relative stability of income returns

Source: Custodian Property Income REIT data, Edison Investment Research. Note: *H125 annualised unaudited data.

Asset sales

CREI has continued to dispose of assets, in aggregate at well above book values, using the proceeds to reduce its more expensive variable rate borrowing and fund capital expenditure.

During Q125, a vacant former car showroom in Redhill and a vacant industrial property in Warrington were sold for an aggregate £11.3m, 49% ahead of the Q324 valuation.

In Q225, vacant offices in Castle Donington were sold for £1.75m, in line with the end-Q125 valuation, and in Solihull for £1.4m, 33% ahead of the end-Q125 valuation.

Thus far in Q325, an occupied industrial unit in Sheffield has been sold to the occupier for £0.55m, 10% ahead of the Q125 valuation.

Valuations began to pick up in Q225

Following a period of stabilisation during the first half of this calendar year, valuations were marginally positive in the most recent quarter, as rental growth continues across all sectors, interest rates begin to decline, and investment activity in the direct property market starts to pick up. CREI is strongly of the view that the market has bottomed and that valuations will gradually pick up.

Exhibit 4: H125 portfolio valuation movements

Portfolio value

Like-for-like valuation movement

Like-for-like valuation movement (%)

£m unless stated otherwise

H125

H125

Q125

Q225

H125

Q125

Q225

H125

Industrial

287.2

49%

1.7

0.9

2.6

0.6%

0.3%

0.9%

Retail warehouse

125

21%

0.0

2.3

2.3

0.0%

1.8%

1.8%

Other*

77.2

13%

(0.4)

0.2

(0.2)

-0.6%

0.2%

-0.3%

High St retail

32.8

6%

(0.3)

0.7

0.4

-0.7%

2.2%

1.2%

Office

60.2

10%

(2.0)

(1.9)

(3.9)

-3.2%

-3.1%

-6.5%

Total portfolio

582.4

100%

(1.0)

2.2

1.2

-0.2%

0.5%

0.2%

Source: Custodian Property Income REIT data, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Other comprises drive-through restaurants, car showrooms, trade counters, gymnasiums, restaurants and leisure units.

Corporate activity continuing

Corporate activity and managed wind-downs have seen a marked reduction in the number of diversified, income-focused REITs and this continues apace. This has been a reaction to persistent sector-wide discounts to NAV. More recently private equity investors have emerged as buyers of listed REITs, recognising the potential for a recovery in the commercial real estate market.

Having announced a strategic review in April 2024, in September, Balanced Commercial Property Trust (BCPT) agreed a cash bid from funds owned by Starwood Capital, a global private investment firm focused on the real estate sector. Starwood offered 96p a share, a discount of 8.7% compared with BCPT’s end-June NAV per share of 105.1p.

Also in September, abrdn Property Income Trust Limited (API) agreed a portfolio takeover by accounts managed by the private investment firm, GoldenTree Asset Management. API has been pursuing a strategy of managed wind-down since its shareholders narrowly rejected an all-share bid from CREI earlier in the year. The GoldenTree transaction is expected to complete by the end of November and the cash consideration represents 64p per API share, a 12.7% discount to the end-June NAV per share of 73.3p.

Earlier in the year, UK Commercial Property REIT (UKCM) was acquired by Tritax, having ended discussion with Picton Property Income, and CT Property Trust (UKCPT) was acquired by LondonMetric. Among other diversified property companies, Circle Property and Ediston Property disposed of their portfolios and left the market and Place Capital is well-advanced with its portfolio wind-down.

Performance driven by rental growth and leasing

Rental growth is being driven by the industrial portfolio

On a like-for-like basis, the portfolio ERV increased 0.8% in Q225, following 1.0% growth in Q125, all driven by the industrial sector, while other sectors have been stable. Like-for-like passing rent increased 1.5% after a 1.2% increase in Q125 driven by positive leasing events, in aggregate at rents well above previous passing rents and/or ERV.

Portfolio ERV of £49.3m exceeds passing rent of £44.3m by £5.0m or 11%. While the organic rental income opportunity remains significant, the gap between ERV and rent roll has narrowed since the start of the year (FY24: £6.2m or 14%) primarily because of the sale of vacant properties (reducing ERV without reducing passing rent). The reversionary upside potential from re-letting existing occupied space at market rent levels is £1.8m (FY24: £2.1m) with an additional £3.2m potential from further void reduction.

EPRA occupancy1 has increased from 91.7% at the start of the year to 93.5% at the end of Q225, also reflecting the sale of vacant properties and leasing events.

  1Reflects the ERV of occupied space as a proportion of total ERV.

Although the sale of vacant properties has no impact on rent roll, it has a positive impact on net rental income by reducing property operating costs.

Occupier demand has remained

Leasing activity during Q225 added c £0.7m of new annual rent, a similar level as in Q125.

Rent reviews and lease renewals have in aggregate been at a premium to ERV and passing rent through both Q125 and Q225. Letting of vacant space and new leases with existing tenants have been in line with ERV, with the latter at a premium to passing rent.

Since the end of H125, an aggregate c £0.6m of leasing events have completed, including an aggregate c £150k pa from the letting of vacant space, a 78% uplift in passing rent (c £0.2m) on a rent review of an industrial property, and a number of new lease agreements with existing tenants. Most significantly, CREI has reached an agreement (subject to planning permission and vacant possession) to let an office building in Manchester, currently undergoing refurbishment, on a 12-year lease with an annual rent of c £715k.

These positive leasing developments have been partly offset by the failure of two (of c 370) tenants of industrial properties. The lease on one of the industrial units, with an annual rent of £0.5m, is expected to be assigned to a new business owner resulting in an unchanged rent but a £0.3m write-off of arrears. The tenant of the other unit, with annual rent of £0.4m, has entered administration with c £0.1m of rent arrears. CREI says that should the administrators decide to vacate, it will take the opportunity to carry out a comprehensive refurbishment of the unit to improve its specification and let it at a higher rent.

Exhibit 5: Leasing events

Q125

Q225

H125 total

Reviews

Number of lease events

3

2

5

Annual rent (£m)

1.3

0.1

1.3

Premium to ERV

11%

14%

11%

Premium to passing rent

41%

33%

41%

New annual rental income (£m)

0.4

0.0

0.4

Lease renewals

Number of lease events

2

5

7

Annual rent (£m)

0.1

0.3

0.4

Premium to ERV

6%

11%

10%

Premium to passing rent

0%

23%

17%

New annual rental income (£m)

0.0

0.1

0.1

New leases – vacant space

Number of lease events

7

8

15

New annual rental income (£m)

0.3

0.7

1.0

New leases - existing tenants

Number of lease events

5

5

Annual rent (£m)

1.0

1.0

Premium to passing rent

7%

7%

New annual rental income (£m)

0.0

0.1

0.1

Total leasing events

Number of lease events

12

20

32

Annual rent (£m)

1.6

2.0

3.6

New annual rental income (£m)

0.7

0.7

1.4

Source: Custodian Property Income data, Edison Investment Research

No change to earnings forecasts

There are no material changes to our forecasts, which, given the continuing uncertainty around the pace of UK economic growth assume little by way of rental or valuation growth. This is reflected in only modest gains in gross rental income with a marginally faster increase in net rental income as void costs fall away. With no material change in administrative or finance costs this supports further uplifts in earnings and DPS.

Property valuations are held broadly flat, and NAV grows modestly.

Exhibit 6: Forecast summary

Forecast

Previous forecast

Change in forecast

£m unless stated otherwise

FY25e

FY26e

FY25e

FY25e

FY25

FY26

Gross rental & other income

44.0

44.2

43.4

44.0

0.6

0.2

Non-recoverable property costs

(3.7)

(3.4)

(3.1)

(3.2)

(0.6)

(0.2)

Net rental income

40.2

40.8

40.3

40.8

(0.0)

0.0

Administrative expenses

(5.5)

(5.6)

(5.5)

(5.6)

0.0

0.0

Net Interest

(7.5)

(7.7)

(7.4)

(7.6)

(0.1)

(0.0)

EPRA earnings

27.2

27.5

27.3

27.5

(0.1)

0.0

Realised & unrealised property gain/(losses)

3.1

0.0

4.0

0.0

(0.9)

0.0

IFRS earnings

30.3

27.5

31.3

27.5

(1.0)

0.0

EPRA EPS (p)

6.2

6.2

6.20

6.25

(0.0)

0.0

IFRS EPS (p)

6.9

6.2

7.1

6.2

(0.2)

0.0

DPS declared (p)

6.00

6.12

6.00

6.12

0.0

0.0

Dividend cover (x)

1.03

1.02

1.03

1.02

EPRA NTA (p)

94.1

94.3

94.3

94.5

(0.2)

(0.2)

EPRA NTA total return

7.4%

6.6%

7.6%

6.6%

LTV

28.4%

28.3%

28.0%

29.6%

Source: Edison Investment Research

Predominantly fixed-cost borrowing

The end-H125 loan to value ratio was 28.6%, ahead of the company’s medium-term target of 25%, but with significant headroom against debt covenants and a substantial pool of assets unencumbered by borrowings (£108m at end-FY24, or 18% of the portfolio value).

End-H125 borrowings were £174m, from total facilities of £190m, or £215m including an accordion option at the discretion of the lender. Drawn borrowings comprised £140m (80% of the total) of long-term fixed-rate debt, at a blended interest cost of 3.4%, with a six-year average maturity, and £34m of floating rate debt, drawn from the company’s revolving credit facility (RCF). The weighted average cost of aggregate borrowings was 4.0%.

Property disposals in the past year have provided funding for capex and a reduction in borrowing from £185m at end-H124. The first debt maturity, the £20m Scottish Widows facility, is not until August 2025 (Q226) and with £41m of borrowing headroom including a £25m accordion facility on the RCF, we see no obstacles to refinancing. The cost of refinanced debt is likely higher than the current 4.0% but given the relatively small size of the facility this not material (a two percentage point increase is equivalent to less than 0.1p per share).

Exhibit 7: Summary of end-H125 debt portfolio

Lender

Facility
(£m)

Drawn at end-FY24 (£m)

Margin*

Term to maturity (years)***

Maturity date

Scottish Widows

20.0

20.0

3.9%

.9

Aug-25

Scottish Widows

45.0

45.0

3.0%

3.7

Jun-28

Aviva tranche 1

35.0

35.0

3.0%

7.5

Apr-32

Aviva tranche 2

15.0

15.0

3.3%

8.1

Nov-32

Aviva tranche 3

25.0

25.0

4.1%

8.1

Nov-32

Total fixed rate

140.0

140.0

3.4%

5.5

Lloyds Bank revolving credit facility**

50.0

34.0

SONIA +1.62%-1.92%

2.2

Nov-26

Total debt facilities

190.0

174.0

4.7

Source: Custodian Property Income REIT data, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Margin data rounded to one decimal point. **Does not include £25m accordion option at discretion of lender. ***As at 30 September 2024.

Valuation and performance

CREI’s 6.0p target DPS for FY25 represents a prospective yield of 7.7%. Meanwhile, the shares trade at an 17% discount to the H125 NAV per share of 93.5p.

Exhibit 8: Dividend yield history (%)

Exhibit 9: P/NAV history

Source: Custodian Property Income REIT trailing DPS data, LSEG Data & Analytics share prices

Source: Custodian Property Income REIT trailing NAV data, LSEG Data & Analytics share prices

Exhibit 8: Dividend yield history (%)

Source: Custodian Property Income REIT trailing DPS data, LSEG Data & Analytics share prices

Exhibit 9: P/NAV history

Source: Custodian Property Income REIT trailing NAV data, LSEG Data & Analytics share prices

The list of regionally focused, diversified REITs that represent CREI’s close peers has shrunk materially as a result of corporate activity and company wind-downs. CREI’s P/NAV and yield are in line with the peer group average although there is a fairly wide dispersion within the group. CREI and the peer group have outperformed the broader property sector over the past three years but have significantly underperformed versus the broad UK equity market.

Exhibit 10: Peer performance and valuation

Price
(p)

Market cap (£m)

P/NAV
(x)*

Trailing yield (%)**

Share price performance

One month

Three months

One year

Three years

AEW UK REIT

95

151

0.87

8.4

0%

1%

-2%

-12%

Picton Property Income

68

375

0.71

5.3

-6%

-7%

6%

-31%

Schroder REIT

49

238

0.82

6.9

-6%

3%

17%

-1%

Average

0.80

6.9

-4%

-1%

7%

-14%

Custodian Property Income REIT

77

341

0.83

7.1

-7%

-1%

-10%

-19%

UK property sector index

1,245

-7%

-7%

2%

-35%

UK equity market index

4,393

-3%

-2%

9%

5%

Source: Company data, LSEG Data & Analytics prices at 4 May 2024. Note: *Based on last reported EPRA NAV/NTA. **Based on trailing 12-month DPS declared.

Exhibit 11: Financial summary

Year end 31 March, £m

2022

2023

2024

2025e

2026e

INCOME STATEMENT

Gross rental & other income

39.0

40.6

43.0

44.0

44.2

Non-recoverable property costs

(3.4)

(3.5)

(4.0)

(3.7)

(3.4)

Net rental income

35.6

37.1

38.9

40.2

40.8

Administrative expenses

(5.5)

(6.0)

(5.3)

(5.5)

(5.6)

Operating Profit before revaluations

30.1

31.0

33.7

34.7

35.2

Revaluation of investment properties

94.0

(91.6)

(27.0)

3.2

0.0

Costs of acquisitions

(2.3)

(3.4)

(1.6)

0.0

0.0

Profit/(loss) on disposal

5.4

4.4

1.4

(0.1)

0.0

Operating Profit

127.2

(59.6)

6.5

37.8

35.2

Net Interest

(4.8)

(6.3)

(8.0)

(7.5)

(7.7)

Profit Before Tax

122.3

(65.8)

(1.5)

30.3

27.5

Taxation

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit After Tax

122.3

(65.8)

(1.5)

30.3

27.5

Adjust for:

Net revaluation of investment property/costs of acquisition

(91.7)

90.6

25.7

(3.1)

0.0

Gains/(losses) on disposal

(5.4)

0.0

1.6

0.0

0.0

EPRA earnings

25.3

24.8

25.7

27.2

27.5

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

428.7

440.9

440.9

440.9

440.9

IFRS EPS (p)

28.5

(14.9)

(0.3)

6.9

6.2

EPRA EPS (p)

5.9

5.6

5.8

6.2

6.2

Dividend per share (p)

5.25

5.50

5.80

6.00

6.12

Dividend cover (x)*

1.10

1.01

1.01

1.03

1.02

Ongoing charges ratio (excluding property expenses)

1.20%

1.23%

1.24%

1.33%

1.35%

NAV total return

28.4%

-12.5%

-0.3%

7.4%

6.6%

BALANCE SHEET

Non-current assets

665.2

614.7

581.1

591.8

599.4

Investment properties

665.2

613.6

578.1

588.8

596.4

Other non-current assets

0.0

1.1

3.0

3.0

3.0

Current assets

16.8

10.6

24.0

11.7

10.1

Debtors

5.2

3.7

3.3

3.5

3.5

Cash

11.6

6.9

9.7

8.2

6.6

Current liabilities

(39.9)

(15.1)

(15.4)

(15.4)

(15.4)

Creditors/Deferred income

(17.2)

(15.1)

(15.4)

(15.4)

(15.4)

Short term borrowings

(22.7)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Non-current liabilities

(114.5)

(172.7)

(177.9)

(173.2)

(178.5)

Long term borrowings

(113.9)

(172.1)

(177.3)

(172.6)

(177.9)

Other long term liabilities

(0.6)

(0.6)

(0.6)

(0.6)

(0.6)

Net assets

527.6

437.6

411.8

414.9

415.6

NAV/share (p)

119.7

99.3

93.4

94.1

94.3

EPRA NTA/share (p)

119.7

99.3

93.4

94.1

94.3

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

32.6

24.3

23.2

25.7

26.2

Net Interest

(4.5)

(27.5)

18.0

14.3

0.0

Tax

0.0

(12.6)

(19.0)

(9.1)

(6.0)

Net additions to investment property (inc property, plant & equipment

26.6

(40.1)

(1.0)

5.2

(6.0)

Ordinary dividends paid

(24.2)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Debt drawn/(repaid)

(25.1)

(24.3)

(24.2)

(27.2)

(26.8)

Proceeds from shares issued (net of costs)

0.5

35.3

4.8

(5.0)

5.0

Other cash flow from financing activities

1.7

11.0

(19.4)

(32.2)

(21.8)

Net Cash Flow

7.7

(4.7)

2.8

(1.3)

(1.6)

Opening cash

3.9

11.6

6.9

9.7

8.4

Closing cash

11.6

6.9

9.7

8.4

6.8

Debt as per balance sheet

(136.6)

(172.1)

(177.3)

(172.6)

(172.9)

Unamortised loan arrangement fees

(1.1)

(1.4)

(1.7)

(1.4)

(1.1)

Total debt

(137.8)

(173.5)

(179.0)

(174.0)

(174.0)

Restricted cash

(1.1)

(1.5)

(2.5)

(1.8)

(1.8)

Closing net debt

(127.3)

(168.1)

(171.8)

(167.4)

(169.0)

Net LTV

19.1%

27.4%

29.2%

28.4%

28.3%

Source: Custodian Property Income REIT historical data, Edison Investment Research forecasts


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Custodian Property Income REIT and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Custodian Property Income REIT. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Custodian Property Income REIT and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Custodian Property Income REIT. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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Regional REIT (RGL) has issued a Q324 trading update and has declared a quarterly DPS of 2.2p, in line with previous guidance. The retention rate on lease renewals remains high, partly reflecting the benefits of portfolio capex, also reflected in a further improvement in the EPC rating. A more general uptick in leasing is yet to be seen, with budget-related torpor also acting as a drag on the completion of disposals. There is no change to our forecasts.

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