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Future — Scaling benefits coming through

Future — Scaling benefits coming through

Future has delivered strong H118 figures, with management confident of meeting full year expectations. We have updated our forecasts to include the two recently completed transactions, Newbay Media in the US and four specialist titles acquired from Haymarket in the UK. Management’s ambitious growth strategy is playing out as envisaged, with diversifying revenue streams and broadening market reach based on good-quality content and data. The US opportunity is particularly attractive. Good momentum underpins the valuation, with some further possible upside.

Fiona Orford-Williams

Written by

Fiona Orford-Williams

Director, TMT

Future

Scaling benefits coming through

Half-year figures

Media

17 May 2018

Price

460.0p

Market cap

£212m

Net debt (£m) at 31 March 2018
(prior to deals)

2.0

Shares in issue

46.1m

Free float

99.5%

Code

FUTR

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

18.0

17.7

156.1

Rel (local)

10.2

11.1

147.9

52-week high/low

475.0p

179.9p

Business description

Future is an international media group and leading digital publisher, with a scalable platform and a range of leading consumer brands. It operates two separately managed, brand-led divisions: Media and Magazine.

Next events

Annual results

November 2018

Analysts

Fiona Orford-Williams

+44 (0)20 3077 5739

Bridie Barrett

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Future is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Future has delivered strong H118 figures, with management confident of meeting full year expectations. We have updated our forecasts to include the two recently completed transactions, Newbay Media in the US and four specialist titles acquired from Haymarket in the UK. Management’s ambitious growth strategy is playing out as envisaged, with diversifying revenue streams and broadening market reach based on good-quality content and data. The US opportunity is particularly attractive. Good momentum underpins the valuation, with some further possible upside.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

EV/EBITDA (x)

09/16

59.0

2.3

9.2

0.0

50.1

N/A

44.0

09/17

84.4

8.3

21.0

0.0

21.9

N/A

20.8

09/18e

110.0

14.4

22.9

1.0

20.1

0.2

12.7

09/19e

124.5

17.4

26.0

2.0

17.7

0.4

10.7

Note: *PBT and EPS (fully diluted) are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Focus on the big picture and on the detail

As anticipated, the Media business is providing the top-line stimulus, with y-o-y organic revenue growth of 31% in H118, while the Magazine division came out 1% ahead, with FY17’s Home Interest acquisition offsetting the (expected) decline in print. The benefits of the investment made to build the content platform and tech stack are showing through. Audience data are helping to improve the focus and relevancy in content, setting a strong context for driving e-commerce, which showed organic growth of 76% in the period to just shy of 15% of group revenues. Within digital display advertising, FY17’s internal programme to improve viewability and optimise programmatic yields has helped raise revenues in this segment by 33% (22% of group). The shift in mix, as well as the operating leverage as the business scales up, is lifting underlying EBITDA margins. However, we assume some margin dilution from the acquisitions during their early months in the group, resulting in group EBITDA margin of 16% for FY18, slightly below H118 levels.

US remains key opportunity

Monetisation of the US audience is improving, but is still a long way below that of the UK. Revenue per user was £0.74 in FY17 (versus the UK at £1.40). On a rolling annualised basis to March 2018, this figure had risen to £0.80, but the UK figure had climbed faster, to £1.58 as the newer income streams from digital advertising and e-commerce have started to gain traction. Newbay adds further diversification of the revenue base, introducing B2B opportunities in information and events.

Valuation: Good momentum

Future's shares have performed strongly, increasing over 2.5x over the last year, as the implementation of management’s strategy has translated into good organic growth and successfully integrated acquisitions. There is momentum behind rolling out best practice in digital advertising and e-commerce globally, which is starting to come through in the financial returns. We feel that the current rating does not fully reflect the opportunity.

Progress across the board

Group organic revenue growth of 7% would be respectable in an overall media environment, but masks the underlying blend of 31% organic growth in the Media division and 1% in Magazine. Adding in the acquisitions (principally Home Interest, from August 2017, with some additional impetus from a full six months from both Imagine and TeamRock), group revenues were ahead by 25%. The inclusion of the Home Interest magazine titles ensured that divisional revenues were 1% ahead of the previous year, despite continued print decline.

Acquisitions added in to numbers

The outlook statement states that management is confident of meeting full year expectations. Having had a strong H118, this implies that there may have been some timing benefit between the two halves. This is certainly the case in Events, where five of the seven annual Homebuilding & Renovating shows have already taken place. The changes to our forecasts therefore reflect the incorporation of the two transactions; the Haymarket titles for four months of FY18e and Newbay for five and full years for FY19e.

Exhibit 1: Adjustments to forecasts

EPS

PBT

EBITDA

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

2017

21.0

N/A

8.3

N/A

11.0

N/A

2018e

22.1

22.9

+4

13.6

14.4

+6

16.7

18.0

+8

2019e

23.1

26.0

+13

14.6

17.4

+19

17.9

21.3

+19

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

We would anticipate that the financial performance of the Haymarket titles will follow a similar path to previous acquisitions as they are migrated onto Future’s platforms and start to benefit from the introduction of its disciplines.

Newbay is less-trodden ground and we have been cautious in our growth assumptions, although management expects it to be earnings enhancing in FY19e, its first full year of ownership. It brings in a range of additional verticals, some adjacent to existing group IP, others giving greater diversification. There will undoubtedly be opportunities for cross-selling, as well as the operational benefits from using Future’s platforms and systems, which should lift achievable margins.

US management and operational infrastructure is being strengthened and the headquarters relocated from San Francisco to New York, to give greater time overlap with other group operations.

Cash conversion remains strong

Adjusted cash conversion in H118 was 127% on operating cash flow of £11.1m. We would expect there to be a working capital outflow in H2 as the newly acquired assets are reinvigorated. The funding of both deals was weighted towards cash (Haymarket titles were purchased on 1 May 2018 for £13m, including the issue of 370,708 shares; Newbay was purchased on 4 April 2018 for £8.6m cash and £1.1m in shares, with a further potential deferred payment of £3.9m in January 2019).

Our revised balance sheet shows net debt increased to £22.5m as at end December 2018, reducing to just under £11m by end of FY19 as the operating cash flow picks up more strongly.


Exhibit 2: Financial summary

£'m

2015

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

30 September

IFRS

IFRS

IRFS

IRFS

IRFS

INCOME STATEMENT

check

Revenue

 

 

59.8

59.0

84.4

110.0

124.5

Cost of Sales

(40.6)

(16.0)

(23.4)

(34.6)

(36.8)

Gross Profit

19.2

43.0

61.0

75.5

87.8

EBITDA

 

 

3.6

5.2

11.0

18.0

21.3

Operating profit (before except.)

 

 

0.8

2.8

8.9

15.4

18.2

Amortisation on acquired intangibles

(2.3)

0.0

(2.3)

(7.5)

(8.0)

Exceptionals

(2.5)

(16.5)

(3.7)

(3.5)

0.0

Share-based payments

0.0

(0.5)

(2.1)

(2.8)

(2.8)

Reported operating profit

(4.0)

(14.2)

0.8

1.6

7.4

Net Interest

(0.6)

(0.5)

(0.6)

(1.0)

(0.8)

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit before tax (norm)

 

 

0.2

2.3

8.3

14.4

17.4

Profit before tax (reported)

 

 

(2.3)

(14.9)

0.2

0.6

6.6

Reported tax

0.3

0.5

1.4

(1.3)

(1.3)

Profit after tax (norm)

0.5

2.3

8.6

11.6

13.4

Profit after tax (reported)

(2.0)

(14.4)

1.6

(0.7)

5.3

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Discontinued operations

0.7

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net income (normalised)

0.6

2.3

8.6

11.6

13.4

Net income (reported)

(1.3)

(14.2)

1.6

(0.7)

5.3

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

22

24

37

46

47

EPS - basic normalised (p)

 

 

2.7

9.5

23.2

25.3

28.6

EPS - normalised, fully diluted (p)

 

 

2.7

9.2

21.0

22.9

26.0

EPS - basic reported (p)

 

 

(5.9)

(58.8)

4.3

(1.6)

11.3

Dividend per share (p)

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

Revenue growth (%)

(9.4)

(1.3)

43.1

30.3

13.2

Gross margin (%)

32.1

72.9

72.3

68.6

70.5

EBITDA margin (%)

6.0

8.8

13.0

16.4

17.1

Normalised operating margin (%)

1.3

4.7

10.5

14.0

14.6

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed assets

 

 

44.9

36.1

97.9

113.1

104.3

Intangible assets

43.8

33.2

92.3

107.1

98.2

Tangible assets

0.6

0.5

1.0

1.1

1.2

Investments & other

0.5

2.4

4.4

5.7

4.7

Current assets

 

 

19.5

15.8

24.5

39.4

48.9

Stocks

0.5

0.4

0.7

0.7

0.7

Debtors

15.3

12.4

13.6

23.7

24.9

Cash & cash equivalents

2.5

2.9

10.1

14.9

23.2

Other

1.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Current liabilities

 

 

(25.9)

(25.1)

(36.4)

(42.4)

(43.1)

Creditors

(20.7)

(21.4)

(29.9)

(35.9)

(36.6)

Tax and social security

(0.9)

(1.4)

(3.2)

(3.2)

(3.2)

Short-term borrowings

(4.3)

(2.3)

(3.2)

(3.2)

(3.2)

Other

0.0

0.0

(0.1)

(0.1)

(0.1)

Long-term liabilities

 

 

(7.1)

(5.6)

(24.7)

(38.4)

(35.0)

Long-term borrowings

0.0

(0.1)

(16.9)

(34.2)

(30.8)

Other long-term liabilities

(7.1)

(5.5)

(7.8)

(4.2)

(4.2)

Net assets

 

 

31.4

21.2

61.3

71.6

75.0

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Shareholders' equity

 

 

31.4

21.2

61.3

71.6

75.0

CASH FLOW

Operating cash flow before WC and tax

0.8

5.2

11.0

18.0

21.3

Working capital

(8.0)

(2.1)

4.7

(4.1)

(0.4)

Exceptional & other

(0.4)

0.0

(3.7)

(4.0)

0.0

Tax

(0.5)

(0.7)

(1.4)

(4.6)

(1.3)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

(8.1)

2.4

10.6

5.3

19.5

Capex

(2.0)

(2.5)

(2.6)

(2.3)

(2.3)

Acquisitions/disposals

1.3

(0.3)

(31.8)

(20.2)

(3.9)

Net interest

(0.6)

(0.4)

(0.6)

(1.0)

(0.8)

Equity financing

0.0

3.1

21.0

2.8

0.0

Dividends

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.8)

Other

0.0

(0.1)

0.2

1.7

0.0

Net cash flow

(9.4)

2.2

(3.2)

(13.7)

11.7

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(7.5)

1.8

(0.5)

10.0

22.5

FX

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

Other non-cash movements

0.0

0.0

(7.3)

1.2

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

1.8

(0.5)

10.0

22.5

10.7

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: FY19e includes potential deferred £3.9m payment for Newbay.

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Future and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Future and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

William Grand Prix Holdings — Ambition for competition

Performance in 2017 was one of progress at the core accompanied by a sharp reduction in net debt, aided by significant property sales proceeds. Progress is apparent in Williams Advanced Engineering (WAE) but the Formula One (F1) racing team remains the heart of the business. Performance on the track is a key determinant of group financial returns, but the changes to produce a more equal distribution of commercial rights are only likely in the medium term. Until then, progress will probably remain volatile, especially as competition on the track has intensified.

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