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Research: TMT
Centaur’s FY20 results are a shade ahead of our forecast and show a resilient performance considering the impact of the pandemic. Q1 trading to date is in line, in what is generally the quietest quarter for revenues with no scheduled events or Mini MBA courses, and cash at end February was £8.2m (IFRS liabilities only). The group is now reinstating dividend payments and will pay 0.5p for FY20, with a minimum payment of 1.0p set out for future years. Centaur’s MAP23 strategy, laid out in January, gives the framework and impetus for revenue growth and improving profitability, which should in turn drive an increasing valuation.
Centaur Media |
Resilient performance |
Final results |
Media |
17 March 2021 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Centaur Media is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Centaur’s FY20 results are a shade ahead of our forecast and show a resilient performance considering the impact of the pandemic. Q1 trading to date is in line, in what is generally the quietest quarter for revenues with no scheduled events or Mini MBA courses, and cash at end February was £8.2m (IFRS liabilities only). The group is now reinstating dividend payments and will pay 0.5p for FY20, with a minimum payment of 1.0p set out for future years. Centaur’s MAP23 strategy, laid out in January, gives the framework and impetus for revenue growth and improving profitability, which should in turn drive an increasing valuation.
Year end |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
P/E |
EV/EBITDA |
12/19 |
39.6 |
(1.5) |
(1.4) |
N/A |
8.7 |
12/20 |
32.4 |
(0.3) |
0.2 |
170.0 |
10.4 |
12/21e |
36.2 |
1.2 |
0.6 |
68.0 |
7.9 |
12/22e |
41.5 |
3.6 |
2.0 |
17.2 |
5.1 |
Note: *PBT and EPS (diluted) are normalised, continuing operations excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptionals and share-based payments.
Resilient financial performance
FY20 revenues were down 16% on an underlying basis (-18% reported), with an adjusted EBITDA margin up at 12%, ahead of management’s target. The closure of MarketMakers resulted in a non-cash impairment charge of £11.0m and exceptional costs of £0.9m but leaves the group with a more coherent commercial proposition at Xeim, its division supporting the marketing profession. Our forecasts are unchanged and are on track to meet management’s ambitions under the MAP23 for revenue of over £45m and an EBITDA margin of 23%. More detail on this can be found in our recent initiation report.
Leading with the flagships
Premium content, marketing services, training and advisory revenues accounted for 76% of group in FY20 and there is much more scope within Xeim to cross-sell the various offerings across the client base. The Mini MBA had a particularly good year, pivoting its marketing and delivery to suit lockdown. Econsultancy was also able to quickly shift its training online and, after initial disruption, has also benefited from the ability to support clients’ programmes in digital transformation. Trading conditions for Influencer Intelligence were far from ideal, but it has focused on building scale and developing campaign-measurement tools that should stand it in good stead as the backdrop becomes more favourable. The Lawyer’s strong positioning in its market is clearly shown by subscription renewal rates of 106%.
Valuation: Starting to build
The share price is up 13% year-to-date as confidence starts to build both for the market and for Centaur. However, the valuation remains at a discount to the quoted B2B media peers. If that differential on EV/EBITDA (averaged across FY20–22 to smooth out the pandemic impact) were to close, the shares would be priced at 57p, well above the current level. This is also notably higher than the 40p value derived at the time of our January initiation, due to the combined effects of good sector share price performance and the year rolling forward.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£m |
2019 |
2020 |
2021e |
2022e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
39.6 |
32.4 |
36.2 |
41.5 |
Other operating income |
1.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Cost of Sales |
(9.4) |
(7.3) |
(10.0) |
(11.8) |
||
Gross Profit |
30.2 |
25.1 |
26.2 |
29.7 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
4.0 |
3.8 |
5.1 |
7.6 |
Normalised operating profit/ loss |
|
|
(1.2) |
0.0 |
1.5 |
3.9 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(2.5) |
(1.5) |
(1.1) |
(0.5) |
||
Exceptionals |
(4.0) |
(0.3) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Share-based payments |
(0.1) |
(0.5) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Reported operating profit/ loss |
(7.8) |
(2.3) |
0.4 |
3.3 |
||
Net Interest |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Profit/ Loss Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(1.5) |
(0.3) |
1.2 |
3.6 |
Profit/ Loss Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(8.1) |
(2.6) |
0.1 |
3.0 |
Reported tax |
0.6 |
0.9 |
(0.4) |
(0.7) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(2.0) |
0.3 |
0.8 |
2.9 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(7.5) |
(1.7) |
(0.2) |
2.4 |
||
Discontinued operations |
9.4 |
(12.7) |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
2.9 |
||
Net income (reported) |
1.9 |
(14.4) |
(0.2) |
2.4 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
143 |
144 |
147 |
147 |
||
EPS - normalised, continuing (p) |
|
|
(1.4) |
0.2 |
0.6 |
2.0 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted, continuing (p) |
|
|
(1.4) |
0.2 |
0.5 |
1.9 |
EPS - basic reported, continuing (p) |
|
|
(5.3) |
(1.2) |
(0.2) |
1.6 |
Dividend per share (p) |
1.5 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
(2.5) |
(15.6) |
11.7 |
14.4 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
76.3 |
77.5 |
72.4 |
71.5 |
||
EBITDA (IFRS) Margin (%) |
10.1 |
11.7 |
14.0 |
18.3 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin (%) |
(3.0) |
0.0 |
4.2 |
9.3 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
67.4 |
52.3 |
50.6 |
49.0 |
Intangible Assets |
61.2 |
46.1 |
44.8 |
43.8 |
||
Tangible Assets |
4.3 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
3.3 |
||
Deferred tax |
1.4 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
||
Other receivables |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
19.7 |
14.3 |
15.5 |
18.9 |
Debtors |
10.3 |
5.8 |
6.9 |
8.0 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
9.3 |
8.3 |
8.4 |
10.8 |
||
Other |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(23.3) |
(17.8) |
(19.0) |
(19.9) |
Creditors |
(12.5) |
(8.8) |
(9.4) |
(9.3) |
||
Tax and social security |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Short term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other/ Lease liabilities |
(10.8) |
(9.0) |
(9.6) |
(10.6) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(2.7) |
(1.6) |
(1.6) |
(1.6) |
Long term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other long term liabilities, including leases |
(2.7) |
(1.6) |
(1.6) |
(1.6) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
61.1 |
47.2 |
45.5 |
46.4 |
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
61.1 |
47.2 |
45.5 |
46.4 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
4.5 |
2.4 |
5.1 |
7.6 |
||
Working capital |
2.1 |
(1.0) |
0.1 |
(0.1) |
||
Exceptional & other |
(2.0) |
0.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Tax |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Operating cash flow |
|
|
4.7 |
2.1 |
5.2 |
7.5 |
Capex |
(1.6) |
(0.8) |
(1.6) |
(1.6) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
16.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net interest |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
||
Equity financing |
(0.6) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
(7.1) |
0.0 |
(1.5) |
(1.5) |
||
Other |
(2.2) |
(2.1) |
(1.6) |
(1.7) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
9.3 |
(1.0) |
0.1 |
2.4 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(0.1) |
(9.3) |
(8.3) |
(8.4) |
FX |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
(0.1) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(9.3) |
(8.3) |
(8.4) |
(10.8) |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
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