Underlying business strong outside power projects issue
Energy contributed revenue of €2,916m in H125, representing 81% of the total, with EBITDA
of €288m (H124: €322m). Renewable energy was the standout performer, while utilities
and trading also supported earnings. Renewables delivered revenue of €989m and EBITDA
of €221m, a 54% increase year-on-year. Installed capacity reached 5.5GW, up 15%, with
a total pipeline of 12.1GW. Output rose 35% to 854GWh, split 317GWh in Greece and
537GWh internationally. The Asset Rotation Plan advanced, with sales of 788MW compared
with 531MW a year earlier. A contracted backlog of €654m with a further €201m under
negotiation underpins visibility.
Utilities (generation, customer solutions and trading) all expanded. Power generation increased
by 6% to 4.5TWh, accounting for more than 18% of Greek demand. Market share in electricity
supply rose to 20.7% from 16.7% in H124, while natural gas supply share increased
to 26% from 19.5%. The number of customer meters rose to 711k, from 580k at end 2024.
EBITDA from generation and management was €106m (+17%), while customer solutions reported
€41m (-29%), reflecting retail competition. Integrated supply and trading improved
sharply, contributing €52m versus €18m last year.
Metals posted revenue of €480m (+16% y-o-y) and EBITDA of €129m (-9%). Alumina revenue was
€104m with EBITDA of €47m, reflecting higher prices and steady refinery production
of 426kt. Aluminium contributed €349m in revenue and EBITDA of €74m, with pressure
from energy costs despite strong billet premia and downstream demand. Recycled aluminium
accounted for 28kt of output, around 24% of the total.
During H125, the three-month LME aluminium price averaged $2,544/t, with significant
volatility ranging from above $2,700/t to below $2,300/t, before closing Q2 at around
$2,600/t. Alumina averaged $435/t against $402/t in H124. Hedging largely insulated
Metlen from these swings.
Strategic investments remain on schedule. The €295m expansion at Agios Nikolaos will
lift alumina capacity from 865kt to 1.265Mt by 2026. A new gallium line is due in
2027 and is expected to supply Europe’s entire demand. Long-term agreements with Rio
Tinto support bauxite supply and alumina offtake. These steps reinforce vertical integration
and extend Metlen’s position into critical raw materials.
Infrastructure and Concessions delivered revenue of €212m against €82m a year earlier, with EBITDA rising to €31m
from €12m. The project backlog reached €1.1bn, increasing to more than €1.4bn, including
advanced contracts. METKA ATE is positioned to capture a share of Greece’s infrastructure
pipeline, estimated at €18bn annually over the next two years.
Outlook unchanged
Management reaffirmed FY25 EBITDA guidance above €1bn. In 2022–24, H2 contributed
between 55% and 60% of annual EBITDA. Applying the same pattern to the €445m reported
in H125 points to delivery in line with guidance. The full impact of Protos is already
recognised, limiting further downside risk. The medium-term target of €1.9–2.1bn annual
EBITDA is unchanged. Growth pillars include:
- Gallium: first output in 2027, diversifying the metals portfolio.
- Defence metallurgy: five-plant hub in Volos, with initial production from 2026 and
medium-term EBITDA potential above €100m.
- Circular metals: pilot plant commencing in Q425, with longer-term EBITDA potential
of more than €200m if scaled.
Capex of €2.5bn is planned for 2025–28, of which 84% is growth-related, split c 50%
energy, c 40% metals and the balance infrastructure. Funding will be organic, consistent
with Metlen’s conservative financial policy.
LSE listing and index inclusion complete
Metlen’s listing on the London Stock Exchange in August marked a milestone in its
internationalisation strategy. Admission to the UK 100 in September broadened the
shareholder base, ensured passive fund inclusion and enhanced visibility with global
investors. With a market capitalisation above €6bn at entry, Metlen joins the index
as a meaningful constituent, underlining its scale and growth trajectory.
