Last close As at 05/08/2026
GBP19.60
▲ 20.00 (1.03%)
Market capitalisation
GBP239m
Research: Financials
S&U’s trading update, covering the H225 period up to 10 December 2024, contrasts strong growth in the property lending division with regulatory headwinds for motor finance. Positive news of the lifting of temporary restrictions on motor finance collections was quickly followed by a surprise Appeal Court ruling against other lenders regarding FCA-compliant motor finance commissions. This is a separate issue from that of discretionary commission, to which S&U is not exposed. The Supreme Court has agreed to hear an appeal, a development of great significance to lenders across the consumer finance sector and the regulator.
S&U |
Regulatory uncertainty holding back recovery |
Trading update |
Financial services |
16 December 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
S&U is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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S&U’s trading update, covering the H225 period up to 10 December 2024, contrasts strong growth in the property lending division with regulatory headwinds for motor finance. Positive news of the lifting of temporary restrictions on motor finance collections was quickly followed by a surprise Appeal Court ruling against other lenders regarding FCA-compliant motor finance commissions. This is a separate issue from that of discretionary commission, to which S&U is not exposed. The Supreme Court has agreed to hear an appeal, a development of great significance to lenders across the consumer finance sector and the regulator.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
01/23 |
102.7 |
41.4 |
277.5 |
133.0 |
5.3 |
9.0 |
01/24 |
115.4 |
33.6 |
209.3 |
120.0 |
7.0 |
8.2 |
01/25e |
116.0 |
24.3 |
149.6 |
100.0 |
9.8 |
6.8 |
01/26e |
113.9 |
31.2 |
192.3 |
120.0 |
7.6 |
8.2 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Aspen mitigating Advantage pressures
Group customer receivables of £449m were at a similar level to the same period last year, up 30% for Aspen but 10% lower for Advantage. Reflecting similar trends, group receivables are 5% down from H125. Motor repayments are yet to show a pickup and, combined with lower lending balances, S&U expects Advantage H225 PBT to be similar to H125. With its lending and credit quality strong, Aspen PBT in the period under review was up c 50% versus the prior year. We have reduced our FY25 group PBT forecast to £24.3m (from £27m) and FY26 to £31.2m (from £36.3m), with lower motor lending balances partly offsetting a collections recovery. At this stage, it is impossible to estimate the potential impact of regulatory or legal matters regarding legacy collections practices or commission payments.
Uncertainty until Supreme Court
FCA rules have long required that borrowers should be informed if their loan costs include commission paid by lenders to car dealers or other finance brokers (‘brokers’). In cases involving other lenders, based on its interpretation of common law, the Appeal Court ruled that brokers could not lawfully receive commission from a lender without informed borrower consent, including knowledge of the exact amount of commission paid. This has opened the door to claims against both brokers and lenders, with implications for the wider consumer finance sector. While we find it difficult to see the unfairness, harm or case for redress where FCA rules have been adhered to, it is now for the Supreme Court to decide, which we expect could take many months.
Valuation: Significant ‘risk discount’
The uncertain risk surrounding commission disclosure weighs heavily on the shares. The FY26e P/E multiple is 7.6x with a return on equity (RoE) of 10% (10-year average of 15%). Using a cost of equity (CoE) of 10% and a 2% growth rate in our RoE/CoE model, the implied valuation is c 1,920p, c 40% or £120m above the share price/market cap, providing an indication of the scale of the ‘risk discount’.
Further details on trading
As a basis for revenues, continued progress at Aspen is only partly offsetting the impact of net run-off and impairment in Advantage. Aspen receivables have reached £154m, up by 30% y-o-y, driven by a 23% increase in lending advances. Advantage net customer receivables of £295m were c 10% lower than both the prior year level and compared with end-H125 (£326m).
Exhibit 1: Advances and net receivables
£m |
Jul-24 |
Jan-24 |
Jan-24 |
Jul-24 |
As of 10 December 2024 |
|||
H124 |
H224 |
FY24 |
H125 |
H225 to date |
FY25 to date |
FY25 to date vs FY24* |
||
Advances |
||||||||
Advantage Finance |
81 |
95 |
176 |
73 |
24 |
97 |
-33% |
|
Aspen |
57 |
88 |
127 |
93 |
55 |
148 |
23% |
|
Total advances in the period |
138 |
183 |
303 |
166 |
79 |
245 |
||
Net customer receivables |
||||||||
Advantage Finance |
313 |
332 |
332 |
326 |
295 |
295 |
-10% |
|
Aspen |
104 |
130 |
130 |
149 |
154 |
154 |
30% |
|
Total receivables at period end |
417 |
463 |
475 |
475 |
449 |
449 |
||
Source: S&U data. Note: Advantage Finance FY25 year-to-date advances are an Edison estimate based on data disclosed in the FY24 results presentation. *The percentage change FY25 to date is compared with the equivalent period of FY25.
Aspen Bridging
Profit growth at Aspen is being driven by strong growth in lending and receivables balances, while credit quality remains strong and the blended yield on lending is above the level budgeted by management. Revenues of £18m year-to-date are at a new high level. The pipeline of bridging finance for smaller developers and builders remains strong, and the product range is also being gradually expended, most recently to encompass slightly longer duration. The government’s target of building 300,000 new homes a year provides a supportive backdrop.
Advantage Finance
Advantage has continued to lend selectively as it adjusts to new collections practices and strikes an appropriate balance between risk and return on capital. This may now be more difficult to achieve at the higher-risk end of the market, while competition at the lower-risk, nearer-prime end space can be greater. While the surprise Appeal Court ruling has had a market impact, Advantage was able to quickly adjust its administrative and contract processes and continue to write business without interruption, which was not the case with some other lenders.
We expect a steady but material improvement in collections going forward although this is yet to emerge. We suspect the significant media coverage of industry regulatory issues and the Appeal Court judgement, combined the vigorous activities of claims management companies may be having some impact on some borrowers and their propensity for repayment.
For the period covered by the trading statement, the collections rate was 86%, similar to H125 but lower than the prior year period (91%).
While the temporary restrictions on collections agreed with the FCA have been lifted, the discussions are ongoing and, pending completion, there is no new guidance from the company regarding potential remediation for any adverse impact on customers who may be affected by legacy practice. This remains as a contingent liability, too uncertain to be reliably assessed. We do not expect a material impact, which in any case would be one-off in nature.
Forecast update
The table below shows our revised forecasts. For group PBT, we now expect £24.3m in FY25 (previously £27m) and, while we still expect a strong bounce-back in FY26, it is from a lower base with PBT of £31.2m (previously £36.3m). The forecast reductions are entirely driven by Advantage. For FY25, this is primarily driven by the slower improvement in Advantage customer repayments, reflected in higher impairments. Lower average motor finance customer receivables will have a more significant impact in FY26, partly offsetting the improvement that we expect in impairments.
With Aspen performing strongly, customer receivables are above our previous assumptions and we expect this to continue, generating an uplift to our forecasts and providing a slight offset to our reduced expectations for Advantage.
We have not changed our assumptions for DPS, reduced at the interim results stage, but note that our earnings forecast reductions maintain upwards pressure on the payout ratio, traditionally in the range of 50%. We estimate a payout ratio of 67% for FY25, falling to 62% in FY26. Supporting our DPS assumption, the decline in Advantage receivables is reflected in lower borrowings, which were £211m at the end of the period, down £28m from H125. There is significant headroom to the current borrowing capacity of £280m, of which £230m matures in May 2026.
Exhibit 2: Summary of forecast changes
New forecast |
Old forecast |
Change |
||||
£m unless stated otherwise |
FY25 |
FY26 |
FY25 |
FY26 |
FY25 |
FY26 |
Advantage average net loans outstanding |
290.0 |
313.6 |
306.8 |
332.4 |
(16.8) |
(18.8) |
Aspen average net loans outstanding |
160.0 |
186.9 |
160.0 |
186.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total net loans outstanding |
450.0 |
500.5 |
466.8 |
519.3 |
(16.8) |
(18.8) |
Advantage revenues |
92.3 |
85.7 |
94.6 |
94.0 |
(2.3) |
(8.3) |
Aspen revenues |
23.6 |
28.2 |
23.3 |
26.3 |
0.3 |
1.9 |
Total revenues |
116.0 |
113.9 |
117.9 |
120.3 |
(1.9) |
(6.4) |
Advantage cost of sales |
(13.6) |
(20.0) |
(17.1) |
(19.5) |
3.4 |
(0.5) |
Aspen cost of sales |
(2.5) |
(3.1) |
(2.5) |
(2.9) |
(0.0) |
(0.2) |
Total cost of sales |
(16.2) |
(23.1) |
(19.6) |
(22.4) |
3.4 |
(0.7) |
Advantage impairments |
(35.0) |
(19.3) |
(31.7) |
(21.1) |
(3.2) |
1.8 |
Aspen impairments |
(1.6) |
(1.9) |
(1.6) |
(1.8) |
(0.0) |
(0.1) |
Total impairments |
(36.6) |
(21.2) |
(33.4) |
(22.9) |
(3.2) |
1.7 |
Advantage gross profit |
43.8 |
46.5 |
45.8 |
53.4 |
(2.0) |
(7.0) |
Aspen gross profit |
19.5 |
23.1 |
19.2 |
21.6 |
0.3 |
1.5 |
Total gross profit |
63.2 |
69.6 |
65.0 |
75.0 |
(1.7) |
(5.4) |
Administrative expense |
(20.3) |
(20.5) |
(19.3) |
(20.5) |
(1.0) |
0.0 |
Finance costs |
(18.6) |
(18.0) |
(18.7) |
(18.3) |
0.1 |
0.3 |
PBT |
24.3 |
31.2 |
27.0 |
36.3 |
(2.6) |
(5.1) |
Tax |
(6.2) |
(7.8) |
0.0 |
(7.3) |
(6.2) |
(0.5) |
Net profit |
18.2 |
23.4 |
27.0 |
29.0 |
(8.8) |
(5.7) |
EPS (p) |
149.6 |
192.3 |
165.8 |
224.0 |
(16.2) |
(31.7) |
DPS (p) |
100.0 |
120.0 |
100.0 |
120.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
Year end 31 January |
£m |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025e |
2026e |
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Revenue |
|
87.9 |
102.7 |
115.4 |
116.0 |
113.9 |
Impairments |
(4.1) |
(13.9) |
(24.2) |
(36.6) |
(21.2) |
|
Other cost of sales |
(18.8) |
(23.7) |
(22.8) |
(16.2) |
(23.1) |
|
Administration expenses |
(13.7) |
(15.7) |
(19.3) |
(19.8) |
(20.0) |
|
EBITDA |
|
51.3 |
49.4 |
49.2 |
43.4 |
49.6 |
Depreciation |
|
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
|
50.8 |
48.9 |
48.6 |
42.9 |
49.1 |
Investment revenues / finance expense |
(3.8) |
(7.5) |
(15.1) |
(18.6) |
(18.0) |
|
Profit before tax |
|
47.0 |
41.4 |
33.6 |
24.3 |
31.2 |
Tax |
(9.0) |
(7.7) |
(8.1) |
(6.2) |
(7.8) |
|
Profit after tax |
|
38.0 |
33.7 |
25.4 |
18.2 |
23.4 |
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
12.1 |
12.1 |
12.2 |
12.2 |
12.2 |
|
Diluted EPS (p) |
|
312.7 |
277.5 |
209.3 |
149.6 |
192.3 |
EPS - basic (p) |
|
312.8 |
277.5 |
209.3 |
149.6 |
192.3 |
Dividend per share (p) |
126.0 |
133.0 |
120.0 |
100.0 |
120.0 |
|
Payout ratio (DPS/EPS) |
0.40 |
0.48 |
0.57 |
0.67 |
0.62 |
|
EBITDA margin (%) |
58.4% |
48.1% |
42.6% |
37.4% |
43.5% |
|
Operating margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
57.8% |
47.6% |
42.1% |
37.0% |
43.1% |
|
Return on equity |
19.6% |
15.6% |
11.1% |
7.7% |
9.6% |
|
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Customer receivables |
|
181.6 |
219.3 |
242.0 |
226.9 |
252.4 |
Other non-current assets |
|
2.6 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
Total non-current assets |
|
184.2 |
222.0 |
244.5 |
229.1 |
254.5 |
Customer receivables |
|
141.3 |
201.4 |
221.0 |
223.1 |
248.1 |
Other current assets |
1.7 |
4.7 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
|
Total current assets |
|
143.0 |
206.1 |
222.4 |
225.0 |
249.9 |
Total assets |
|
327.2 |
428.2 |
466.8 |
454.1 |
504.3 |
Borrowings |
|
(2.6) |
0.0 |
(0.9) |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
Other current liabilities |
(6.2) |
(6.9) |
(7.6) |
(5.5) |
(5.6) |
|
Total current liabilities |
|
(8.8) |
(6.9) |
(8.5) |
(6.5) |
(6.7) |
Borrowings |
|
(111.0) |
(195.5) |
(223.5) |
(208.5) |
(248.0) |
Preference shares |
|
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
Other non-current liabilities |
|
17.3 |
13.4 |
16.7 |
12.8 |
13.1 |
Total non-current liabilities |
(111.7) |
(196.4) |
(224.2) |
(209.2) |
(248.7) |
|
Net assets |
|
206.7 |
224.9 |
234.2 |
238.4 |
249.0 |
NAV per share (p) |
1,702 |
1,852 |
1,928 |
1,962 |
2,050 |
|
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
(2.1) |
(62.8) |
(15.5) |
29.5 |
(26.6) |
Net cash from investing activities |
(0.3) |
(0.7) |
(0.2) |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
|
Dividends paid |
(12.3) |
(15.5) |
(16.2) |
(14.0) |
(12.8) |
|
Other financing (excluding change in borrowing) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Net cash flow |
|
(14.6) |
(79.0) |
(31.9) |
15.2 |
(39.7) |
Opening net (debt)/cash |
|
(99.3) |
(114.0) |
(193.0) |
(224.8) |
(209.6) |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
(114.0) |
(193.0) |
(224.8) |
(209.6) |
(249.3) |
Source: S&U historical data, Edison Investment Research forecasts
|
|
Research: Industrials
Carr’s Group plan to dispose of the Engineering businesses remains on track and will leave the company as a focused agricultural supplies business. Restructuring (both the cost base and exiting loss-making activities) along with actions from the new management and potential from a market upturn should provide positive forward momentum and support the future growth strategy.