BRSA: A combination of value and ESG factors
BRSA provides investors with a unique product, focusing on value and sustainability. The trust’s three managers are part of BlackRock’s income & value team, which has around $60bn of assets under management. It believes that, having been out of favour with investors, both value and sustainability strategies are poised for a comeback, with BRSA well positioned to capture this.
Manager Yang explains that while the trust underwent a strategy change in July 2021, there are certain elements that remain constant. These include the three managers operating in the same BlackRock investment team and having a continued focus on dividend-paying US stocks, seeking to generate an attractive level of income plus long-term capital growth. An additional focus on sustainability means the fund has a premium ESG score and lower carbon emissions than the US value 1000 reference index. The change in strategy also involved a move from a large-cap to a multi-cap approach, although the managers are finding it difficult to find small-cap companies that fit their investment criteria. They are keen to avoid ‘value traps’, which are firms that look attractive but whose businesses are challenged and are unlikely to achieve a higher valuation.
BRSA’s upside/downside capture
Exhibit 1 shows BRSA’s upside/downside capture over the last 10 years. The fund’s defensive qualities are illustrated by its upside capture of 93.6% and downside capture of 94.5%. These numbers suggest that the trust will capture around 5% less than the reference index’s moves both in months when share prices rally and in months when they fall.
Exhibit 1: BRSA’s upside/downside capture
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Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Cumulative upside/downside capture calculated as the geometric average NAV total return (TR) of the fund during months with positive/negative reference index TRs, divided by the geometric average reference index TR during these months. A 100% upside/downside indicates that the fund's TR was in line with the reference index’s during months with positive/negative returns. Data points for the initial 12 months have been omitted in the exhibit due to the limited number of observations used to calculate the cumulative upside/downside capture ratios.
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Market performance and valuation
As shown in Exhibit 2, in aggregate, US shares have delivered a significantly better performance than the UK market over the past decade. In addition, it is interesting to note how much value shares have lagged the broader US market. In recent years, except in 2022, growing technology companies have made a major contribution to the US market (Exhibit 3), with the sector now making up around 28% of the S&P 500. With its focus on value stocks, BRSA’s absolute performance has suffered from a lack of exposure to large-cap US technology companies.
Exhibit 2: Performance of indices over the last decade (£)
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Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research
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Exhibit 3: S&P 500 Index sector total returns ($)
% |
2023* |
|
2022 |
|
2021 |
|
2020 |
Comm'n services |
37.9 |
Energy |
65.4 |
Energy |
54.4 |
IT |
43.9 |
IT |
34.7 |
Utilities |
1.6 |
Real estate |
46.1 |
Cons discretionary |
33.3 |
Cons discretionary |
20.9 |
Consumer staples |
(0.6) |
Financials |
34.9 |
Comm'n services |
23.6 |
Industrials |
1.5 |
Healthcare |
(2.0) |
IT |
34.5 |
Materials |
20.7 |
Energy |
(0.3) |
Industrials |
(5.5) |
Materials |
27.3 |
Healthcare |
13.5 |
Materials |
(0.7) |
Financials |
(10.6) |
Healthcare |
26.1 |
Industrials |
11.1 |
Financials |
(4.1) |
Materials |
(12.3) |
Cons discretionary |
24.4 |
Consumer staples |
10.8 |
Consumer staples |
(5.9) |
Real estate |
(26.2) |
Comm'n services |
21.6 |
Utilities |
0.5 |
Healthcare |
(7.2) |
IT |
(28.2) |
Industrials |
21.1 |
Financials |
(1.8) |
Real estate |
(8.2) |
Cons discretionary |
(37.0) |
Consumer staples |
18.6 |
Real estate |
(2.2) |
Utilities |
(13.3) |
Comm'n services |
(39.9) |
Utilities |
17.7 |
Energy |
(33.7) |
Total |
10.7 |
Total |
(18.1) |
Total |
28.7 |
Total |
18.4 |
Source: Bloomberg. Note: *To 31 October 2023.
As shown in Exhibit 4, US shares do not appear attractively valued. Looking at Datastream indices, the US is trading at a near 25% premium to the world market on a forward P/E basis, and its 18.7x multiple is at a premium to its 10-year average. In contrast, global equities are trading around a 3% discount to their average over the last decade. The price-to-book valuation differentials between the US and global markets are even wider in both absolute and relative terms. While the US market generates a superior return on equity, it offers a lower dividend yield.
Exhibit 4: Valuation metrics of Datastream indices (at 16 November 2023)
|
Last |
High |
Low |
10-year average |
Last as % of average |
US |
|
|
|
|
|
P/E 12 months forward (x) |
18.7 |
23.4 |
14.1 |
18.1 |
104 |
Price to book (x) |
4.2 |
4.6 |
2.3 |
3.2 |
130 |
Dividend yield (%) |
1.5 |
2.7 |
1.2 |
1.9 |
82 |
Return on equity (%) |
15.9 |
18.5 |
10.0 |
14.1 |
113 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
World |
|
|
|
|
|
P/E 12 months forward (x) |
15.2 |
19.9 |
12.5 |
15.6 |
97 |
Price to book (x) |
2.3 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
117 |
Dividend yield (%) |
2.4 |
3.4 |
1.8 |
2.4 |
98 |
Return on equity (%) |
12.6 |
14.0 |
7.4 |
11.2 |
113 |
Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research
The managers’ view on the investment backdrop
Yang explains that she and her colleagues are taking a cautious view within BRSA’s portfolio, as although inflation is moderating, it remains elevated. The US has undergone one of the fastest interest rates tightening cycles in its history, which means there is a risk of a recession even though the consensus view is for a soft economic landing. Yang says a recession is seen as the base case, as it takes time for higher interest rates to play out.
While the manager considers that the S&P 500 Index’s valuation looks unattractive (on a P/E multiple basis it is trading at one standard deviation above its long-term average), she sees considerable value in the US 1000 value index, which is trading at one of the largest discounts to the S&P 500 Index over the last decade. The managers are particularly finding good opportunities in quality stocks, including some healthcare names.
While, according to Yang, there is a high probability of a recession, which is implied by the shape of the US yield curve, she does not believe it is priced into the US stock market. Core inflation has come down from the 2022 highs, but it is still much higher than between 2010 and 2020. US unemployment remains very low, which is placing upward pressure on inflation, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to contain inflation. The manager explains that the US money supply turned negative at the end of 2021 and, coupled with a sharp increase in the federal funds rate, means financial conditions are very tight. Hence, she is concerned about corporate earnings. Yang highlights that there have been 10 US recessions since 1957, and earnings typically declined by 13% from peak to trough; however, they declined by 18% in the last three recessions. Consensus earnings growth forecasts are +12% for 2024, so the manager believes there is downside risk to these estimates.
As it is hard to time a recession, Yang considers that it is better to stay invested. Looking at how equities have performed after a recession, value stocks outperformed growth stocks and the broader market, while quality stocks outperformed equities and bonds following interest rate hiking cycles. The manager notes that valuation spreads are very wide. The least expensive quintile of US stocks is trading at two standard deviations below its long-term average, providing opportunities for value managers, and while quality stocks have re-rated since their 2022 low valuations, they remain below their long-term averages.
Current portfolio positioning
BRSA’s geographic exposure is shown in Exhibit 5. Over the 12 months to end-September 2023 the largest changes were a 5.9pp higher US allocation, and a 3.4pp lower UK weighting, while the Swiss exposure was sold (-1.0pp). Around 13% of the portfolio was held in non-North American companies.
Exhibit 5: Portfolio geographic exposure (% unless stated)
|
Portfolio end-September 2023 |
Portfolio end-September 2022 |
Change (pp) |
US |
85.8 |
79.8 |
5.9 |
UK |
4.7 |
8.1 |
(3.4) |
Japan |
3.6 |
3.8 |
(0.1) |
France |
2.2 |
2.9 |
(0.7) |
Australia |
1.8 |
2.1 |
(0.3) |
Canada |
1.3 |
1.9 |
(0.6) |
Denmark |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
Switzerland |
0.0 |
1.0 |
(1.0) |
|
100.0 |
100.0 |
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Source: BRSA, Edison Investment Research. Note: Rebased for net current assets/liabilities.
BRSA’s managers are finding mispriced opportunities in some overseas stocks. As examples: global oil and gas companies have free cash flow yields that are double those of similar US businesses; international personal care stocks are significantly less expensive than those in the US; and European pharma stocks have better growth outlooks and less patent risk than US pharma stocks, yet they trade at a discount to their US peers.
Considering BRSA’s sector exposure (Exhibit 6) over the 12 months to end-September 2023, there was a 2.9pp higher weighting to industrials, with a 2.3pp lower allocation to financial stocks. Versus the reference index, the notable active weights were overweight positions in IT (+6.7pp) and healthcare (+4.2pp) with underweight exposures to industrials (-6.6pp) and real estate (-3.5pp). One of the reasons for the overweight IT position is that many companies have steady demand for their products, similar to consumer staples businesses. The healthcare sector offers good growth opportunities, and its earnings in a downturn are more resilient than other defensive sectors such as consumer staples (which are more expensive) or utilities (which have weaker fundamentals). Industrials is viewed as a late-cycle sector and, in general, company valuations are unappealing. Many real estate companies have leveraged business models, meaning they can underperform in a rising interest rate environment. Also, these firms’ shares tend to move as a group, providing less opportunities for stock picking.
Exhibit 6: Portfolio sector exposure versus reference index (% unless stated)
|
Portfolio end-Sept 2023 |
Portfolio end-Sept 2022 |
Change (pp) |
Active weight vs index (pp) |
Financials |
19.4 |
21.6 |
(2.3) |
0.2 |
Healthcare |
18.9 |
20.0 |
(1.1) |
4.2 |
Information technology |
14.3 |
13.5 |
0.8 |
6.7 |
Consumer discretionary |
10.6 |
9.6 |
1.0 |
1.7 |
Energy |
9.2 |
8.6 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
Industrials |
8.5 |
5.6 |
2.9 |
(6.6) |
Consumer staples |
6.4 |
5.1 |
1.3 |
(1.3) |
Communication services |
4.0 |
4.9 |
(0.9) |
(0.1) |
Utilities |
3.7 |
4.4 |
(0.7) |
(1.4) |
Materials |
3.7 |
5.3 |
(1.6) |
0.2 |
Real estate |
1.2 |
1.2 |
0.0 |
(3.5) |
|
100.0 |
100.0 |
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Source: BRSA, Edison Investment Research. Note: Rebased for net current assets/liabilities.
Exhibit 7: BRSA’s sector exposure versus its reference index at end-September 2023
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Source: BRSA, Edison Investment Research. Note: Numbers subject to rounding.
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At end-September 2023, BRSA’s largest 10 holdings made up 26.6% of the portfolio, which was a modestly lower concentration compared with 28.0% 12 months earlier; four positions were common to both periods.
Exhibit 8: Top 10 holdings (at 30 September 2023)
Company |
Country |
Sector |
Portfolio weight % |
30 September 2023 |
30 September 2022* |
Shell |
UK |
Energy |
3.1 |
N/A |
Cisco Systems |
US |
Information technology |
2.9 |
3.0 |
Citigroup |
US |
Financials |
2.7 |
N/A |
American International Group |
US |
Financials |
2.7 |
N/A |
Kraft Heinz |
US |
Consumer staples |
2.6 |
N/A |
Willis Towers Watson |
US |
Financials |
2.6 |
2.9 |
Cigna |
US |
Healthcare |
2.6 |
2.7 |
L3Harris Technologies |
US |
Industrials |
2.5 |
N/A |
Cognizant Technology Solutions |
US |
Information technology |
2.5 |
2.6 |
Cardinal Health |
US |
Healthcare |
2.4 |
N/A |
Top 10 (% of portfolio) |
|
|
26.6 |
28.0 |
Source: BRSA, Edison Investment Research. Note: *N/A where not in end-September 2022 top 10.
Comparing BRSA’s portfolio with the reference index at end-August 2023, it had a modestly higher gross dividend yield and considerably higher dividend growth. Its return on equity was broadly in line. Looking at earnings, the portfolio’s forward growth estimate was lower than the reference index, but it was more attractively valued at a c 20% forward P/E multiple discount.
Exhibit 9: Portfolio characteristics at 31 August 2023
|
Portfolio |
Reference index |
Difference (%) |
Number of holdings |
59 |
846 |
(93.0) |
Gross dividend yield (%) |
2.5 |
2.3 |
0.2 |
Dividend growth (5Y annualised, %) |
9.1 |
5.1 |
4.0 |
Return on equity (%) |
13.2 |
13.0 |
0.2 |
Forward EPS growth (%) |
10.8 |
15.8 |
(5.0) |
Forward P/E multiple (x) |
12.1 |
15.2 |
(20.4) |
Source: BRSA, Edison Investment Research
Recent portfolio transactions
There were two new positions added to the portfolio in September 2023, CNH Industrial (manufacturer of agricultural machinery and construction equipment) and NextEra Energy (electric utility holding company), while AstraZeneca (major pharma firm) was sold. In August 2023, the managers initiated positions in Allegion (security products provider), Crown Holdings (manufacturer of metal cans, containers and packaging) and Dollar General (discount retailer), while the holdings in CACI International (professional services and IT company), EQT (energy exploration and pipeline firm) and Ralph Lauren (apparel company) were sold. During July 2023, Crown Castle (communications infrastructure provider), International Flavors & Fragrances (producer of flavours, fragrances and cosmetic actives) and Unilever (UK multinational consumer packaged goods company) were added to the portfolio, and CBRE Group (commercial real estate services and investment firm), PPG Industries (supplier of paints, coatings and speciality materials) and Charles Schwab (multinational financial services company) exited the fund. There were no new holdings or complete sales in June 2023.