Polypipe delivered underlying volume and profit growth in H117 despite some market headwinds, most notably input price increases. Acknowledging seasonal effects, we consider that cash generation is set to remain strong with net debt maintaining a downward underlying trend.
Exhibit 1: Polypipe Group interim and divisional splits
£m |
H116 |
H216* |
FY16* |
H117 |
|
Change (%) |
Group revenue - net |
223.3 |
213.6 |
436.9 |
242.0 |
|
8.4 |
Residential Systems |
105.4 |
102.2 |
207.6 |
115.0 |
|
9.1 |
Commercial & Infrastructure Systems |
124.2 |
117.9 |
242.1 |
135.1 |
|
8.8 |
CIPS – UK |
92.7 |
91.5 |
184.2 |
97.7 |
|
5.4 |
CIPS - Europe |
31.5 |
26.4 |
57.9 |
37.4 |
|
18.7 |
Inter company |
-6.3 |
-6.5 |
(12.8) |
(8.1) |
|
|
Group operating profit - reported |
37.7 |
31.7 |
69.4 |
38.9 |
|
3.2 |
Residential Systems |
21.5 |
17.5 |
39.0 |
22.9 |
|
6.5 |
Commercial & Infrastructure Systems |
16.2 |
14.2 |
30.4 |
16.0 |
|
(1.2) |
CIPS – UK** |
15.2 |
13.9 |
29.1 |
14.5 |
|
(4.6) |
CIPS - Europe |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
|
50.0 |
Source: Company, Edison Investment Research. Notes: *We have excluded £0.3m H216 profit on asset disposal. **Includes £0.8m Middle East set-up costs, largely in H116.
Residential Systems – good revenue growth and prospects
A clear beneficiary of exposure to the newbuild segment which has, as widely reported by the quoted housebuilders, continued to show good levels of demand and activity. Management considers that the headline revenue growth reported was substantially volume driven, with the price increases (from higher polymer input costs) effectively compensating for demand pulled forward into FY16 ahead of price increases. The pull-through of underground product was referenced and, being indicative of early-stage installations, this augurs well for other above-ground and rainwater lines as the build cycle progresses. As other commentators have noted, weaker consumer confidence appears to have fed into the secondary housing market with lower transactions and demand for building products static at best. For the division as a whole, the small margin reduction (by 50bp to 19.9%) reflected polymer price recovery lags. This effect was anticipated and we consider the overall outcome a very creditable one.
Commercial & Infrastructure UK – more mixed performance
To some extent groundworks and preparation for newbuild housing also benefited this division, with water management/flood prevention products installed as new sites are developed. Commercial ventilation revenue growth is also understood to have been ahead of the divisional average as Polypipe continues to develop its market position following the acquisition of Nuaire in 2015. Conversely, road infrastructure project delays hampered divisional revenue growth, as did market conditions in the Middle East, including local restrictions in supplying Qatar. Consequently, the Dubai manufacturing facility was temporarily mothballed during H1 (exceptional cost £0.9m) pending greater clarity on demand in the region. Revenue mix, input price recovery lags (a greater impact here than in residential) and the Middle East performance will all have contributed to the modest EBIT and 150bp y-o-y margin reduction to 14.9%. We would expect all of these effects to be less pronounced (or more favourable) in H2.
Commercial & Infrastructure Europe – a return to growth
A return to GDP growth in Europe now appears to be well established and Polypipe’s operations based in France experienced good volume growth (and delivered 8.6% like-for-like revenue growth) as well as favourable FX translation effects. Utility company demand across a number of segments was behind this performance. From a lower base compared to UK operations, EBIT margins improved by 50bp to 3.9%.
Free cash flow neutral in H1, strong inflow expected in H2
At the end of June, Polypipe’s net debt position stood at £178m, an increase of c £14m since the start of the year (but below the c £191m reported a year earlier). This outflow was equivalent to the FY16 final cash dividend payment as free cash flow was effectively neutral in H117 trading.
Higher first half operating profit came through in increased EBITDA and, as in previous years, this was partly offset by seasonal working capital build during Q2. The associated cash outflow was higher than normal owing primarily to price rises and their impact on demand patterns. Specifically, merchant customers made advanced purchases at the end of FY16. This required some inventory rebuild in H117 and the favourable trade creditor position at the beginning of the year also unwound during the period. The latter effect was the primary reason for the c £11m higher working capital investment in the period compared to H116, leaving trading cash flow c £9m lower y-o-y at c £21m.
Increased capex has been flagged previously and net spending in the first half was c £11m, up c £3m y-o-y, in comparison with an £8.1m depreciation charge. Good activity levels are driving a demand for incremental capex across the business and management specifically referenced new, large-diameter equipment at Polypipe Civils. Of the other line items we note the higher cash tax payment, was in line with the headline reported level on rising profit base and cash interest costs continued to trend down, together amounting to an outflow of almost £10m.
Cash outlook: in FY16, the H1 working capital investment unwound completely by year end, leaving a neutral position for the year as a whole. At this stage, we have modelled a substantial flow back to leave a small outflow for the year as a whole – essentially reflecting the earlier inventory point – although the actual outturn will of course be influenced by year-end activity levels. This, together with increased capex for the year (at c £25m) explains the expected dip in FY17 free cash flow (ie c £44m versus £51m in FY16). Implicitly, this entails strong FCF generation in H2 and, after rising dividend cash payments and a small element of treasury share purchases, leads to a £20m+ reduction in net debt by the year end to £143m. This represents 1.6x our projected FY17 EBITDA. Our estimates show further reductions in this multiple to 1.2x and 0.8x at the end of FY18 and FY19 respectively, in the absence of any major new capex programmes or acquisition activity.
Playing into the relatively better industry sectors
Market comment: the Construction Products Association August forecasts pointed to an upwardly revised 1.6% industry growth expectation for 2017, to be followed by a downwardly revised 0.7% for 2018 and 1.8% in 2019 (previously 1.2% and 2.3% respectively). Behind these headline figures, infrastructure (major projects, water, road and rail) and private housebuilding are expected to be the positive drivers, partly offset by slower commercial and industrial. In the two years beyond 2017, private housing RMI activity is seen as being flat at best.
Estimates: regarding Polypipe, our underlying UK assumptions are essentially unchanged. We have nudged up revenue estimates in all years and in both divisions consistent with the current run rate of polymer prices. With unchanged UK EBIT expectations, this has a slightly dilutive impact on margins compared to our previous estimates. That said, the H1 performance of European operations causes us to now expect a better profit contribution, partly but not wholly, attributable to a stronger euro relative to sterling. Below this, we have modestly trimmed our group finance cost estimates, leaving the net overall changes shown in Exhibit 2.
Exhibit 2: Polypipe estimate revisions
|
Normalised EPS (p) |
Normalised PBT (£m) |
EBITDA (£m) |
|
Old |
New |
% chg. |
Old |
New |
% chg. |
Old |
New |
% chg. |
2017e |
26.4 |
26.4 |
--- |
66.0 |
66.2 |
+0.3 |
90.8 |
90.8 |
--- |
2018e |
28.7 |
29.0 |
+1.0 |
70.8 |
71.6 |
+1.1 |
96.0 |
96.6 |
+0.6 |
2019e |
30.7 |
30.9 |
+0.7 |
74.9 |
75.5 |
+0.8 |
100.2 |
100.8 |
+0.6 |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
|
|
£m |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017e |
2018e |
2019e |
December |
|
|
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue |
|
|
327.0 |
352.9 |
436.9 |
465.9 |
481.5 |
495.0 |
Cost of Sales |
|
|
(202.4) |
(210.0) |
(256.8) |
(277.0) |
(283.6) |
(290.1) |
Gross Profit |
|
|
124.6 |
142.9 |
180.1 |
188.9 |
197.9 |
204.9 |
EBITDA |
|
|
60.8 |
69.3 |
86.4 |
90.8 |
96.6 |
100.8 |
Operating Profit (underlying) |
|
|
46.3 |
54.2 |
70.4 |
74.5 |
80.1 |
84.0 |
SBP |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
(1.0) |
(1.2) |
(1.3) |
(1.3) |
Operating Profit (reported) |
|
|
46.3 |
54.2 |
69.4 |
73.4 |
78.8 |
82.7 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(7.7) |
(5.3) |
(6.6) |
(6.0) |
(6.0) |
(6.0) |
Other finance |
|
|
(1.0) |
(0.9) |
(1.0) |
(1.2) |
(1.2) |
(1.2) |
Intangible Amortisation |
|
|
0.0 |
(3.0) |
(6.8) |
(5.6) |
(5.6) |
(5.6) |
Exceptionals |
|
|
(20.7) |
(3.5) |
(0.6) |
(1.2) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
37.6 |
48.0 |
61.8 |
66.2 |
71.6 |
75.5 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
16.9 |
41.5 |
54.4 |
59.4 |
66.0 |
69.9 |
Tax |
|
|
(5.4) |
(9.2) |
(11.8) |
(13.2) |
(13.6) |
(13.6) |
Profit After Tax (norm) |
|
|
32.2 |
38.8 |
50.0 |
52.9 |
58.0 |
61.9 |
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
11.5 |
32.3 |
42.6 |
46.1 |
52.4 |
56.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
|
199.9 |
199.3 |
198.9 |
199.3 |
199.3 |
199.3 |
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
16.1 |
19.4 |
25.0 |
26.4 |
29.0 |
30.9 |
EPS - FRS 3 (p) |
|
|
5.8 |
16.2 |
21.4 |
23.1 |
26.3 |
28.3 |
Dividend per share (p) |
|
|
4.5 |
7.8 |
10.1 |
11.7 |
12.9 |
14.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross Margin (%) |
|
|
38.1 |
40.5 |
41.2 |
40.6 |
41.1 |
41.4 |
EBITDA Margin (%) |
|
|
18.6 |
19.6 |
19.8 |
19.5 |
20.1 |
20.4 |
Operating Margin (underlying) (%) |
|
|
14.2 |
15.4 |
16.1 |
16.0 |
16.6 |
17.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fixed Assets |
|
|
324.2 |
476.5 |
472.6 |
475.8 |
473.7 |
471.3 |
Intangible Assets |
|
|
235.0 |
378.4 |
371.6 |
366.0 |
360.4 |
354.8 |
Tangible Assets |
|
|
89.2 |
98.1 |
101.0 |
109.8 |
113.3 |
116.5 |
Investments |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Current Assets |
|
|
103.9 |
99.6 |
119.5 |
162.5 |
194.3 |
228.2 |
Stocks |
|
|
39.9 |
47.5 |
52.2 |
56.3 |
57.6 |
59.0 |
Debtors |
|
|
20.2 |
29.3 |
38.9 |
40.6 |
42.4 |
43.7 |
Cash |
|
|
43.1 |
21.6 |
26.5 |
63.7 |
91.9 |
122.7 |
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(69.8) |
(87.2) |
(104.5) |
(107.6) |
(108.5) |
(109.0) |
Creditors |
|
|
(69.8) |
(87.2) |
(104.5) |
(107.6) |
(108.5) |
(109.0) |
Short term borrowings |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(120.6) |
(227.9) |
(200.2) |
(216.6) |
(217.7) |
(218.7) |
Long term borrowings |
|
|
(118.0) |
(215.9) |
(190.8) |
(207.0) |
(207.0) |
(207.0) |
Other long term liabilities |
|
|
(2.6) |
(12.0) |
(9.4) |
(9.6) |
(10.7) |
(11.7) |
Net Assets |
|
|
237.7 |
261.0 |
287.4 |
314.0 |
341.8 |
371.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
50.6 |
72.6 |
86.5 |
87.6 |
93.2 |
97.7 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(10.4) |
(5.7) |
(7.3) |
(6.0) |
(6.0) |
(6.0) |
Tax |
|
|
(3.7) |
(5.2) |
(10.1) |
(12.5) |
(13.2) |
(13.6) |
Capex |
|
|
(14.9) |
(18.9) |
(18.7) |
(24.8) |
(20.0) |
(20.0) |
Acquisitions/disposals |
|
|
(0.3) |
(149.5) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Financing |
|
|
(1.7) |
0.0 |
(2.9) |
(1.5) |
(1.5) |
(1.5) |
Dividends |
|
|
(3.0) |
(10.6) |
(17.1) |
(21.1) |
(24.2) |
(25.8) |
Net Cash Flow |
|
|
16.6 |
(117.3) |
30.5 |
21.7 |
28.3 |
30.8 |
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
84.7 |
74.9 |
194.3 |
164.3 |
143.3 |
115.1 |
HP finance leases initiated |
|
|
(9.6) |
(1.7) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Other |
|
|
2.8 |
(0.4) |
(0.5) |
(0.7) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
74.9 |
194.3 |
164.3 |
143.3 |
115.1 |
84.3 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Polypipe Group and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent. |
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Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Polypipe Group and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent. |
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New York +1 646 653 7026 295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor 10017, New York US |
Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342 Level 12, Office 1205 95 Pitt Street, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia |
Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960 Schumannstrasse 34b 60325 Frankfurt Germany |
London +44 (0)20 3077 5700 280 High Holborn London, WC1V 7EE United Kingdom |
New York +1 646 653 7026 295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor 10017, New York US |
Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342 Level 12, Office 1205 95 Pitt Street, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia |
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