Paysafe Group |
Positive 2017 outlook |
Trading update |
Software & comp services |
19 January 2017 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Paysafe GroupPaysafe Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Paysafe expects to report FY16 revenues and EBITDA ahead of our forecasts and expects organic growth of at least 10% in FY17. We have upgraded our revenue and EPS forecasts to reflect the new guidance and the recently announced share buyback. Although the share buyback means that net debt will reduce more slowly than previously forecast, we estimate that the company should still have headroom for further M&A.
Year |
Revenue ($m) |
EBITDA* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
EV/EBITDA |
12/15 |
613.4 |
152.6 |
25.6 |
0.0 |
18.4 |
17.7 |
12/16e |
1,000.5 |
300.9 |
41.0 |
0.0 |
11.5 |
9.0 |
12/17e |
1,103.7 |
335.4 |
46.0 |
0.0 |
10.2 |
8.0 |
12/18e |
1,204.8 |
367.7 |
51.6 |
0.0 |
9.1 |
7.3 |
Note: *EBITDA and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
FY16 revenues & EBITDA beat; positive FY17 outlook
Paysafe expects to report FY16 revenues of at least $1bn (compared to revenue guidance of $970-990m and consensus of $988m) and for EBITDA to reach $300m (guidance $287-293m, consensus $292m). This implies a c 30% EBITDA margin, marginally higher than our 29.6% margin forecast. In FY17, the company expects to generate low double-digit revenue growth on an organic basis, at current exchange rates. Paysafe is accelerating the development of a single technology platform, and will start to roll out modules through the course of the year.
Strong trading and share buyback drive upgrades
We have revised our revenue forecasts to reflect stronger trading in H216 and FY17. We assume that some of this upside is reinvested but, overall, EBITDA margins move slightly higher than our previous forecasts. We have also factored in the £100m share buyback. This results in EBITDA upgrades of 2.8% in FY16, 3.5% in FY17 and 2.9% in FY18. Our normalised EPS forecasts are upgraded by 4.7% in FY16, 5.6% in FY17 and 7.2% in FY18. Taking into account the buyback and the acquisition of Income Access, our net debt forecast for end FY17 increases from $31m to $169m (equivalent to net debt/EBITDA of 0.5x), moving to net cash by the end of FY18.
Valuation: Steady progress to reduce the discount
The share price has recovered and is now trading at a higher level than prior to the recent short seller’s report. Post our estimate upgrades, Paysafe continues to trade at a significant discount to peers: the company is trading at a c 30% discount on an FY17e EV/EBITDA basis and a more than 40% discount on an FY17e P/E basis. While some discount is warranted to reflect the potential risk within the Asia Gateway business, in our view this discount is excessive. Continued revenue growth, steady cash generation and a gradual reduction in the relative contribution of the company’s largest merchant should help reduce this discount.
Financial summary
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
$000s |
2014 |
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
2018e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
364,954 |
613,392 |
1,000,457 |
1,103,667 |
1,204,756 |
Cost of Sales |
(187,298) |
(316,922) |
(469,140) |
(531,043) |
(586,279) |
||
Gross Profit |
177,656 |
296,470 |
531,316 |
572,623 |
618,477 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
82,946 |
152,563 |
300,902 |
335,428 |
367,651 |
Company EBITDA |
|
|
85,965 |
152,563 |
300,902 |
335,428 |
367,651 |
Operating Profit (before amort acq intang, SBP and except.) |
71,257 |
133,201 |
270,810 |
302,037 |
329,759 |
||
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(9,200) |
(31,900) |
(51,500) |
(52,000) |
(52,000) |
||
Exceptionals |
7,219 |
(60,986) |
(11,369) |
0 |
0 |
||
Share-based payments |
(8,274) |
(14,089) |
(14,000) |
(14,000) |
(14,000) |
||
Operating Profit |
61,002 |
26,226 |
193,941 |
236,037 |
263,759 |
||
Net Interest |
(2,024) |
(14,418) |
(29,199) |
(28,520) |
(27,924) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
69,233 |
118,783 |
241,611 |
273,516 |
301,836 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
58,978 |
11,808 |
164,742 |
207,516 |
235,836 |
Tax |
(1,303) |
(4,405) |
(24,711) |
(31,127) |
(35,375) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
67,703 |
108,686 |
207,785 |
232,489 |
256,560 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS3) |
57,675 |
7,403 |
140,031 |
176,389 |
200,460 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
277.7 |
399.8 |
481.7 |
480.2 |
472.3 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
22.0 |
25.6 |
41.0 |
46.0 |
51.6 |
EPS - FRS 3 (c) |
|
|
20.8 |
1.9 |
29.1 |
36.7 |
42.4 |
DPS (c) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
48.7% |
48.3% |
53.1% |
51.9% |
51.3% |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
22.7% |
24.9% |
30.1% |
30.4% |
30.5% |
||
Company EBITDA Margin (%) |
23.6% |
24.9% |
30.1% |
30.4% |
30.5% |
||
Operating Margin (before am and except.) (%) |
19.5% |
21.7% |
27.1% |
27.4% |
27.4% |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
295,955 |
1,569,269 |
1,593,147 |
1,566,902 |
1,541,201 |
Intangible Assets |
284,723 |
1,548,253 |
1,563,223 |
1,529,869 |
1,499,060 |
||
Tangible Assets |
10,114 |
18,492 |
27,400 |
34,509 |
39,617 |
||
Other Fixed Assets |
1,118 |
2,524 |
2,524 |
2,524 |
2,524 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
177,275 |
259,045 |
386,749 |
460,985 |
683,381 |
Cash & cash equivalents |
|
|
109,893 |
117,875 |
236,519 |
305,099 |
521,956 |
Restricted NETELLER cash |
|
|
8,777 |
29,070 |
29,070 |
29,070 |
29,070 |
Cash held as reserves & settlement assets |
|
|
38,607 |
66,341 |
66,341 |
66,341 |
66,341 |
Receivable from Members & Merchants |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Trade and other debtors |
|
|
19,998 |
45,759 |
54,820 |
60,475 |
66,014 |
Current Liabilities |
|
|
114,410 |
170,943 |
180,505 |
189,364 |
197,978 |
Creditors |
58,240 |
121,070 |
132,667 |
141,526 |
150,140 |
||
Payable to Members/Merchant liability |
30,591 |
16,758 |
16,758 |
16,758 |
16,758 |
||
Short term borrowings |
25,579 |
33,115 |
31,080 |
31,080 |
31,080 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
150,498 |
582,804 |
544,224 |
498,544 |
452,864 |
Long term borrowings |
107,205 |
494,410 |
468,730 |
443,050 |
417,370 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
43,293 |
88,394 |
75,494 |
55,494 |
35,494 |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
208,322 |
1,074,567 |
1,255,167 |
1,339,979 |
1,573,740 |
CASH FLOW |
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Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
42,699 |
91,654 |
292,069 |
335,582 |
367,676 |
Net Interest |
(1,873) |
(8,403) |
(23,799) |
(23,120) |
(22,524) |
||
Tax |
(1,564) |
(4,929) |
(24,711) |
(31,127) |
(35,375) |
||
Capex |
(11,094) |
(23,721) |
(55,019) |
(59,147) |
(64,190) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(169,192) |
(1,102,070) |
(39,787) |
(6,100) |
(3,050) |
||
Financing |
(4,939) |
670,173 |
(2,394) |
(121,827) |
0 |
||
Dividends |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(145,963) |
(377,296) |
146,359 |
94,261 |
242,537 |
||
Opening net (debt)/cash |
|
|
118,389 |
(22,891) |
(409,650) |
(263,291) |
(169,031) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
4,683 |
(9,463) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net (debt)/cash |
|
|
(22,891) |
(409,650) |
(263,291) |
(169,031) |
73,506 |
Source: Paysafe Group accounts, Edison Investment Research
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