Both FY16 revenue and adjusted operating profit were 4% ahead of our forecasts, while EPS beat by 8% on a favourable tax charge. The acquisition of ANNOVA Systems, a leading supplier of software-based editorial solutions to the television sector completed at the end of the period. ANNOVA underpins our financial forecasts and complements SCISYS’s dira! product offering for radio broadcasters, creating cross-selling opportunities. Management has reintroduced its goal to achieve £60m in revenues and double-digit operating margins within three to five years. Hence, we believe the stock looks attractive on c 9x our FY18e EPS.
Written by
SCISYS |
Operating profit beats by 4%, solid outlook |
Final results |
Software & comp services |
4 April 2017 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
SCISYS is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Both FY16 revenue and adjusted operating profit were 4% ahead of our forecasts, while EPS beat by 8% on a favourable tax charge. The acquisition of ANNOVA Systems, a leading supplier of software-based editorial solutions to the television sector completed at the end of the period. ANNOVA underpins our financial forecasts and complements SCISYS’s dira! product offering for radio broadcasters, creating cross-selling opportunities. Management has reintroduced its goal to achieve £60m in revenues and double-digit operating margins within three to five years. Hence, we believe the stock looks attractive on c 9x our FY18e EPS.
Year |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/15 |
36.1 |
0.6 |
1.3 |
1.78 |
83.5 |
1.6 |
12/16 |
45.7 |
3.0 |
9.2 |
1.96 |
12.0 |
1.8 |
12/17e |
53.4 |
4.0 |
11.2 |
2.16 |
9.9 |
2.0 |
12/18e |
55.1 |
4.4 |
11.8 |
2.38 |
9.4 |
2.2 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Final results: Boosted by decline in sterling vs euro
FY16 revenue rose by 27% (17% constant currency) to £45.7m (we forecast £44.0m), while adjusted operating profit quadrupled to £3.2m, despite a £0.3m hit from an FX hedge. There was a £3.4m working capital outflow, reflecting the lumpy movements around the year-end, including a tax rebate coming in late and the impact from a troubled contractor payment system at the UK Ministry of Defence. Hence, net debt was £2.4m higher than we forecast at £10.2m. This was after the completion of the ANNOVA deal on the last day of the year for an initial £10.5m (ie £9.7m cash paid plus c £3m debt and £2.2m cash acquired), which was slightly above our forecasts. While the opening order book (excluding ANNOVA) was slightly down on the prior period at £34m, the value invoiceable within one year was practically unchanged. £31m of FY17 revenue is already contracted and the pipeline remains healthy. Two significant contract wins have since been announced for the Space division (c €3.9m ExoMars and c €1.9m Mission Control contracts).
Forecasts: FY17 & FY18 maintained, FY19 introduced
We have maintained our FY17 and FY18 revenue and adjusted operating profit forecasts. However, EPS rise by 2% in each year due to lower assumed shares in issue. For FY17 we forecast that working capital will swing back by £1.7m and that tax payments are minimal due to receipt of tax rebates and further R&D tax credits. Hence, year end net debt remains as we previously forecasted at £6.2m for both FY17 and FY18. We forecast 10% dividend growth in each of the next three years.
Valuation: ANNOVA leverages the opportunity
The stock trades on c 0.84x our FY18e revenue forecast and c 7.8x EBITDA, which is attractive if SCISYS can successfully exploit the M&B division’s strong BBC success story to drive cross-selling opportunities within Europe and extend the product outside Europe. Our DCF model – which is based on a conservative weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10% and a 10.7% long-term margin target – values the stock at 145p (previously 142p), 32% above the current level.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£'000s |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017e |
2018e |
2019e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
40,359 |
36,106 |
45,744 |
53,400 |
55,140 |
57,016 |
Cost of Sales |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Gross Profit |
40,359 |
36,106 |
45,744 |
53,400 |
55,140 |
57,016 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
4,156 |
1,548 |
3,995 |
5,615 |
5,980 |
6,568 |
Adjusted operating profit |
|
|
3,361 |
818 |
3,214 |
4,600 |
4,932 |
5,513 |
Amort'n of acq'd intangibles |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
(135) |
0 |
(458) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Share based payments |
(42) |
(11) |
14 |
(40) |
(40) |
(50) |
||
Operating Profit |
3,184 |
807 |
2,770 |
4,560 |
4,892 |
5,463 |
||
Net Interest |
(177) |
(196) |
(185) |
(637) |
(567) |
(567) |
||
Associates |
0 |
3 |
17 |
25 |
30 |
30 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
3,184 |
625 |
3,046 |
3,988 |
4,395 |
4,976 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
3,007 |
614 |
2,602 |
3,948 |
4,355 |
4,926 |
Tax |
(766) |
(241) |
(380) |
(706) |
(865) |
(979) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
2,394 |
384 |
2,666 |
3,282 |
3,530 |
3,997 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
2,241 |
373 |
2,222 |
3,242 |
3,490 |
3,947 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
29.0 |
29.0 |
29.0 |
29.3 |
29.9 |
30.5 |
||
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
8.2 |
1.3 |
9.2 |
11.2 |
11.8 |
13.1 |
EPS - FRS 3 (p) |
|
|
7.7 |
1.3 |
7.6 |
11.1 |
11.7 |
12.9 |
Dividend per share (p) |
1.61 |
1.78 |
1.96 |
2.16 |
2.38 |
2.62 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
10.3 |
4.3 |
8.7 |
10.5 |
10.8 |
11.5 |
||
Operating Margin (%) |
8.3 |
2.3 |
7.0 |
8.6 |
8.9 |
9.7 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
17,155 |
16,553 |
31,955 |
32,008 |
32,064 |
32,149 |
Intangible Assets |
8,233 |
7,831 |
22,441 |
22,441 |
22,441 |
22,441 |
||
Tangible Assets |
8,899 |
8,635 |
9,057 |
9,110 |
9,166 |
9,251 |
||
Deferred tax asset & associates |
23 |
87 |
457 |
457 |
457 |
457 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
18,886 |
17,839 |
27,895 |
31,199 |
32,448 |
32,460 |
Stocks |
325 |
211 |
261 |
305 |
315 |
325 |
||
Debtors |
12,334 |
12,299 |
19,621 |
20,374 |
21,037 |
21,752 |
||
Cash |
5,798 |
4,352 |
6,915 |
9,423 |
9,999 |
9,285 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(10,561) |
(12,003) |
(18,763) |
(21,017) |
(21,171) |
(21,369) |
Creditors |
(9,686) |
(8,699) |
(14,959) |
(17,463) |
(17,867) |
(18,315) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(875) |
(3,304) |
(3,804) |
(3,554) |
(3,304) |
(3,054) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(5,023) |
(2,333) |
(18,374) |
(16,522) |
(15,146) |
(14,935) |
Long term borrowings |
(4,595) |
(2,007) |
(13,355) |
(12,042) |
(12,929) |
(13,318) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(428) |
(326) |
(5,019) |
(4,480) |
(2,217) |
(1,617) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
20,457 |
20,056 |
22,713 |
25,669 |
28,195 |
28,306 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
4,774 |
1,570 |
3,442 |
7,165 |
5,704 |
6,283 |
Net Interest |
(177) |
(196) |
(185) |
(637) |
(567) |
(567) |
||
Tax |
100 |
(583) |
(1,250) |
(200) |
(638) |
(791) |
||
Capex |
(618) |
(619) |
(663) |
(1,068) |
(1,103) |
(1,140) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(358) |
(889) |
(7,521) |
(600) |
(2,800) |
(3,900) |
||
Financing |
(61) |
(14) |
15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(435) |
(340) |
(671) |
(589) |
(656) |
(737) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
3,225 |
(1,071) |
(6,833) |
4,071 |
(60) |
(853) |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
2,672 |
(328) |
959 |
10,244 |
6,173 |
6,234 |
Other |
(225) |
(216) |
(2,452) |
0 |
0 |
(0) |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(328) |
959 |
10,244 |
6,173 |
6,234 |
7,087 |
Source: SCISYS accounts (historicals), Edison Investment Research (forecasts)
|
|
FY16 results were ahead of forecast and sales momentum remained strong in the first four months of FY17. The next iteration of the platform, GIANT 2017 marks a step-change in usability and functionality and with a growing network of sales partners, this should underpin sustained revenue growth. This progress is not reflected in Fusionex’s EV/EBITDA rating which despite its higher margins, is the lowest in its peer group at 13x FY17e.