Base case 237p – contingent on debt access
In our base case valuation, we assume GDG receives GSS ODP approval in 2017, opening up access to the RBL debt market. We assume attained RBL debt capacity is in addition to the company’s existing $50m convert (due 2020) and $88m corporate bond due in November 2017, for which we assume a maturity extension. As we discussed in our note (20 February 2017), in the absence of funding and under our minimal capex case, our valuation would be significantly lower than our base case (minimal capex case including GCZ ODP work programme 20p/share). However, if funding was completely unconstrained, drilling ramped up aggressively and 2P and 3P resource recovery was maximised before licence expiry, GDG could be worth significantly in excess of our base case. GDG’s ability to attract funding remains a key investment consideration.
We feel that it is reasonable to assume that GDG will be able to access the RBL debt market for the producing GSS asset post submission of ODP and its 47% interest in GCZ (the bulk of debt capacity resides with GSS). The availability of RBL for Chinese CBM has been demonstrated by AAG Energy receiving a $250m RBL loan for development funding from a consortium of banks including: HSBC, Bank of Communications, Standard Chartered Bank, Société Générale and Credit Agricole in 2015. We see uncertainty around the exact timing of GSS ODP approval but note that there is precedent for Sino-foreign co-operative CBM projects being approved in China – the first such project was AAG’s Panzhuang CBM concession, which was approved for development in 2011 with AAG Energy and CUCBM each holding a 50% stake.
In order to calculate the RBL debt capacity of GDG’s GSS block, we make a number of assumptions in order to determine the borrowing base. Our key assumptions are:
■
RBL pricing assumptions (8% discount rate, $7/mcf rising to $9.0/mcf by 2020 and then rising to LNG parity).
■
Based on 2P reserves profile but only including GSS and GCZ.
■
RBL available after ODP approval – assumed in 2017.
■
Borrowing base is redetermined annually.
■
Existing convertible and bond facility available in addition to RBL.
■
Borrowing base is the minimum amount that satisfies the field life and loan life coverage ratios (we use conventional RBL coverage ratios).
After imposing a maximum drilling rate cap of 100 LiFaBriC wells per year in our analysis, our RBL-funded drilling schedule for GSS is as shown in Exhibit 1. Under this scenario, GDG recovers 100% of its GSS gross 2P reserve base of 788bcf. Our analysis suggests that GDG may require a capital injection in 2017 in order to fund G&A and a limited LiFaBriC well programme ahead of GSS ODP submission and RBL debt access – we understand that the company is in negotiations with a number of lenders with regard to the terms of a bridging facility. In the immediate term, we expect the company to pursue the development of GCZ under the terms of the existing PSC which allows GDG’s share of capex for the ODP work programme for be carried by CNPC.
Exhibit 1: Base case LiFaBriC drilling assumptions
|
Exhibit 2: Base case funding requirements vs RBL debt capacity
|
|
|
Source: Edison Investment Research
|
Source: Edison Investment Research
|
Exhibit 1: Base case LiFaBriC drilling assumptions
|
|
Source: Edison Investment Research
|
Exhibit 2: Base case funding requirements vs RBL debt capacity
|
|
Source: Edison Investment Research
|
In our base case, we see gross GSS sales rising to 60bcf by 2024, with material cash flow (post cost recovery) net to GDG. Cash conversion rises rapidly from 2023, as GDG benefits from a larger LiFaBriC well-stock from which it receives its full 60% of net cash flow and CNOOC fully recovers legacy costs.
Exhibit 3: Growth in GSS gross sales gas and net cash generation post CNOOC cost recovery
|
Exhibit 4: Group EBITDA and cash conversion
|
|
|
Source: Edison Investment Research
|
Source: Edison Investment Research
|
Exhibit 3: Growth in GSS gross sales gas and net cash generation post CNOOC cost recovery
|
|
Source: Edison Investment Research
|
Exhibit 4: Group EBITDA and cash conversion
|
|
Source: Edison Investment Research
|
Net cash flow increases rapidly (cash conversion moves towards 75%) once CNOOC has fully recovered its cost balance; we currently forecast that this will occur in 2024 in our base case.
Exhibit 5: Base case core valuation (assumes minimal GCZ/GSN activity with funds deployed on GSS)
Asset |
Country |
Diluted WI |
Catalyst |
CoS |
Recoverable reserves/resources |
|
Net risked value |
Sensitivity to discount rate |
|
% |
|
% |
Gross |
Net |
NPV/mcf |
@12.5% DR |
£/share |
|
|
|
|
bcf |
bcf |
$/mcf |
$m |
£/share |
10.0% |
15.0% |
17.5% |
Net (debt)/cash June 2016 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-136.7 |
-0.67 |
-0.67 |
-0.67 |
-0.67 |
SG&A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-26.7 |
-0.13 |
-0.13 |
-0.13 |
-0.13 |
GSS 2P |
China |
60%* |
|
80% |
788.1 |
472.9 |
1.5 |
583.9 |
2.88 |
3.79 |
2.20 |
1.70 |
GCZ 2P |
China |
47% |
|
80% |
61.8 |
29.0 |
2.6 |
61.4 |
0.30 |
0.36 |
0.26 |
0.22 |
GSN 2P |
China |
50% |
|
80% |
36.0 |
18.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
Core NAV |
|
|
|
|
885.9 |
519.9 |
|
481.9 |
2.37 |
3.34 |
1.66 |
1.12 |
Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Option to increase GSS WI to 70%.
Key assumptions that we make in our base valuation are as below:
■
GDG is able to drill LiFaBriC wells in line with RBL borrowing base at a cost of $1.3m gross per well.
■
GDG is able to refinance its existing corporate bond in 2017 on similar terms, bridging the gap to rising RBL borrowing capacity.
■
IP rates for new LiFaBriC wells average 250mcfd with a 24m plateau and 10% decline rate.
■
GDG receives ODP approval for GSS/GCZ in 2017 providing RBL debt access. We assume RBL debt capacity is incremental to GDG’s convertible bond and senior secured Nordic bond.
■
We assume all available capital is deployed on GSS.
■
GDG receives a two-year licence extension for GSS to 2035 as per 2014 framework agreement.
■
Life of field opex costs average $1/mcf.
■
Gas sales as a percentage of actual gross production (not production capacity) rise to 95%; gas sales to production capacity will be lower in percentage terms.
■
CNOOC/CUCBM retains cost recovery rights over legacy wells and infrastructure capex spend.
■
We define sales gas as working interest production volume after utilisation losses, which include gas lost to production, transmission, gathering, compression, power and processing processes.
As can be seen in Exhibit 5 above, our base case NPV12.5 valuation is 237p/share (net of liabilities). Our 12.5% cost of capital is based on the assumption that GDG utilises a combination of high-yield debt (current coupon 10% on convertible), RBL debt, equity and farm-out. We believe 12.5% is a reasonable assumption for through-cycle cost of capital, but we provide a sensitivity to the discount rate in our valuation tables. GDG may be able to access lower-cost domestic debt now that GSS and GCZ are included in the government’s five-year plan and we intend to revise our cost of capital assumptions once GDG has secured additional funds.
Exhibit 6: Base case FCF (post-financing) and net cash evolution
|
Exhibit 7: GSS gross gas sales and GSS RBL capacity
|
|
|
Source: Edison Investment Research
|
Source: Edison Investment Research
|
Exhibit 6: Base case FCF (post-financing) and net cash evolution
|
|
Source: Edison Investment Research
|
Exhibit 7: GSS gross gas sales and GSS RBL capacity
|
|
Source: Edison Investment Research
|
Exhibit 8: Financial summary (base case assumes GSS/GCZ ODP approval in 2017 and access to RBL debt)
|
|
US$m |
|
|
2015 |
2016 |
2017e |
2018e |
2019e |
December |
|
|
|
|
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue* |
|
|
|
|
37.7 |
29.1 |
31.9 |
51.3 |
88.7 |
Cost of Sales |
|
|
|
(15.5) |
(16.4) |
(13.8) |
(19.3) |
(29.2) |
Gross Profit |
|
|
|
22.2 |
12.8 |
18.1 |
32.0 |
59.5 |
EBITDA |
|
|
|
|
20.1 |
10.5 |
16.1 |
35.1 |
68.5 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
|
15.0 |
4.6 |
9.6 |
23.9 |
9.6 |
Intangible Amortisation |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Exceptionals |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Other |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Operating Profit |
|
|
|
15.0 |
4.6 |
9.6 |
23.9 |
51.6 |
Net Interest |
|
|
|
(15.1) |
(16.9) |
(14.2) |
(16.6) |
(20.6) |
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(0.1) |
(12.3) |
(4.6) |
7.3 |
31.0 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
(0.1) |
(12.3) |
(4.6) |
7.3 |
31.0 |
Tax |
|
|
|
|
0.2 |
0.2 |
(3.7) |
(8.0) |
(14.9) |
Profit After Tax (norm) |
|
|
|
0.1 |
(12.1) |
(8.2) |
(0.7) |
16.1 |
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
|
(41.9) |
(53.0) |
(8.2) |
(0.7) |
16.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
|
|
156.1 |
156.1 |
156.1 |
156.1 |
156.1 |
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
|
0.0 |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
EPS - normalised and fully diluted (c) |
|
|
0.1 |
(7.7) |
(5.3) |
(0.5) |
10.3 |
EPS - (IFRS) (c) |
|
|
|
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
Dividend per share (p) |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross Margin (%) |
|
|
|
59% |
44% |
57% |
62% |
67% |
EBITDA Margin (%) |
|
|
|
53% |
36% |
50% |
69% |
77% |
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
|
|
40% |
16% |
30% |
47% |
58% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fixed Assets |
|
|
|
1,321.2 |
1,311.2 |
1,312.2 |
1,337.4 |
1,354.0 |
Intangible Assets |
|
|
|
3.0 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
Tangible Assets |
|
|
|
1,315.9 |
1,306.7 |
1,307.7 |
1,333.0 |
1,349.5 |
Investments |
|
|
|
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
Current Assets |
|
|
|
51.5 |
32.3 |
22.6 |
21.1 |
29.0 |
Stocks |
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
Debtors |
|
|
|
|
22.5 |
22.9 |
10.4 |
13.9 |
21.7 |
Cash |
|
|
|
|
26.9 |
7.3 |
10.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
Other |
|
|
|
|
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
Current Liabilities |
|
|
|
(15.4) |
(150.0) |
(138.1) |
(138.3) |
(148.2) |
Creditors |
|
|
|
|
(15.4) |
(13.9) |
(2.2) |
(2.2) |
(12.0) |
Short term borrowings |
|
|
|
0.0 |
(136.1) |
(136.1) |
(136.1) |
(136.1) |
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
|
(659.8) |
(554.5) |
(560.1) |
(584.4) |
(582.9) |
Bonds |
|
|
|
|
(86.8) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Long term debt (RBL or eq.) |
|
|
0.0 |
(7.9) |
(28.2) |
(80.3) |
(121.8) |
Convertible debt |
|
|
|
(48.4) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Deferred Tax Liabilities |
|
|
(154.4) |
(144.8) |
(144.8) |
(144.8) |
(144.8) |
Other long term liabilities |
|
|
(370.2) |
(401.7) |
(387.0) |
(359.2) |
(316.3) |
Net Assets |
|
|
|
|
697.4 |
639.0 |
636.6 |
635.9 |
652.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
|
12.4 |
8.5 |
18.8 |
23.8 |
55.5 |
Net Interest |
|
|
|
(12.3) |
(12.3) |
(14.2) |
(16.6) |
(20.6) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Capex |
|
|
|
|
(47.8) |
(14.4) |
(7.5) |
(36.5) |
(33.4) |
Acquisitions/disposals |
|
|
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Equity financing and convertible debt |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Dividends |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Other |
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.0 |
(14.7) |
(27.8) |
(43.0) |
Net Cash Flow |
|
|
|
(47.3) |
(18.2) |
(17.6) |
(57.2) |
(41.4) |
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
52.3 |
108.3 |
127.9 |
145.5 |
202.6 |
Fx |
|
|
|
|
(5.8) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Other |
|
|
|
|
(2.9) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
|
108.3 |
127.9 |
145.5 |
202.6 |
244.1 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Revenues including subsidy income.
Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Green Dragon Gas and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). 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Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Green Dragon Gas and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent. |
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960 Schumannstrasse 34b 60325 Frankfurt Germany |
London +44 (0)20 3077 5700 280 High Holborn London, WC1V 7EE United Kingdom |
New York +1 646 653 7026 245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor 10167, New York US |
Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342 Level 12, Office 1205 95 Pitt Street, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia |
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