Last close As at 05/08/2026
—
— 0.00 (0.00%)
Market capitalisation
—
Research: Healthcare
Quantum Genomics has announced that the results of its Phase IIb NEW-HOPE study will be presented in a late-breaking presentation at the American Heart Association (AHA) annual meeting on 10 November 2018. Late-breaking presentations are typically reserved for results that are of high interest or impact and this presentation will help increase the profile of both Quantum Genomics and firibastat with physicians, potential partners and investors. We view it as positive that the trial enrolled much faster than expected and that the results will be presented at AHA in a late-breaking presentation.
Written by
Quantum Genomics |
NEW-HOPE data to be presented at AHA |
Financial update |
Pharma & biotech |
9 October 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Quantum Genomics has announced that the results of its Phase IIb NEW-HOPE study will be presented in a late-breaking presentation at the American Heart Association (AHA) annual meeting on 10 November 2018. Late-breaking presentations are typically reserved for results that are of high interest or impact and this presentation will help increase the profile of both Quantum Genomics and firibastat with physicians, potential partners and investors. We view it as positive that the trial enrolled much faster than expected and that the results will be presented at AHA in a late-breaking presentation.
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/16 |
0.0 |
(6.2) |
(0.60) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/17 |
0.0 |
(10.3) |
(0.93) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/18e |
0.0 |
(13.1) |
(0.86) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/19e |
0.0 |
(16.2) |
(1.00) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Phase IIb hypertension data coming in November
NEW-HOPE is a 256-patient trial that focused enrolment on hypertensive overweight (BMI 25–45kg/m2) patients of multiple ethnic and racial groups, with a primary endpoint of change from baseline in office systolic blood pressure (SBP) at week eight. The company announced in September that the trial had completed enrolment months faster than expected.
Phase IIb heart failure trial to start by end of year
The QUORUM study will enrol 300 subjects from 40 centres in the US and Europe within 24 hours of suffering acute myocardial infarction (AMI), commonly referred to as a heart attack. The primary endpoint will be the change from baseline in the left ventricular ejection fraction after a three-month treatment. It is expected to start by the end of 2018.
Controlled-release formulation in the works
The company is developing a controlled-release formulation of firibastat that would allow it to be administered once a day (currently twice a day). A trial in healthy volunteers to evaluate pharmacokinetics is expected to start by the end of 2018.
Valuation: €284m or €23.71 per share
We have increased our valuation of Quantum Genomics to €284m or €23.71 per share from €281m or €23.46 per share, mainly due to rolling forward our NPVs, although this was partly mitigated by a reduction in net cash. We expect to update our valuation following the presentation on 10 November and the investor call on 12 November. The company had €6.0m in cash and investments at the end of H118 and has approximately €23.3m available in an equity line from Kepler Cheuvreux, which the company believes will fund it through the end of 2020
A high-profile presentation for NEW-HOPE
The company has announced that the results of its NEW-HOPE study will be presented in a late-breaking presentation at the AHA annual meeting on 10 November 2018 with an investor call to discuss the results on 12 November. The AHA meeting is one of the premier cardiovascular-focused medical conferences and the late-breaking presentation will help increase the profile of both Quantum Genomics and firibastat with physicians, potential partners and investors. As a reminder, the NEW-HOPE trial completed enrolment faster than expected, enrolling 256 patients in just 10 months. NEW-HOPE focused enrolment on hypertensive overweight (BMI 25–45kg/m2) patients, with a primary endpoint of change from baseline in office SBP at week eight. Following a two-week run-in period in which there would be no treatment, SBP had to be 145–170mmHg. Patients start on 250mg twice a day (BID) for two weeks and then either continue at that dose or increase to 500mg BID for another two weeks. Following that, patients go on 250mg BID, 500mg BID or 500mg BID with 25mg of hydrochlorothiazide, an often-used diuretic, added in.
|
Exhibit 1: NEW-HOPE study design |
|
|
Source: Quantum Genomics |
Valuation
We have increased our valuation of Quantum Genomics to €284m or €23.71 per share from €281m or €23.46 per share mainly due to rolling forward our NPVs, although this was partly mitigated by a reduction in net cash. We expect to update our valuation following the presentation on 10 November 10 and the investor call on 12 November.
Exhibit 2: Quantum Genomics valuation table
Product |
Main indication |
Local |
Status |
Prob. of success |
Launch year |
Peak sales ($m) |
Patent protection |
rNPV |
Firibastat (QGC001) |
Hypertension |
US |
Phase Il |
20% |
2023 |
$1,110 |
2031 |
€166.97 |
Firibastat (QGC001) |
Hypertension |
Europe |
Phase Il |
20% |
2023 |
$959 |
2031 |
€141.65 |
Firibastat (QGC001) |
Development costs |
|
|
|
|
-€132.33 |
||
Firibastat (QGC001) |
Heart Failure |
US |
Phase Iib |
15% |
2023 |
$574 |
2031 |
€79.84 |
Firibastat (QGC001) |
Heart Failure |
Europe |
Phase IIb |
15% |
2023 |
$687 |
2031 |
€94.73 |
Firibastat (QGC001) |
Development costs |
-€72.30 |
||||||
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
€278.56 |
Net cash (30 June 2018) (€m) |
€5.91 |
|||||||
Total firm value (€m) |
€284.47 |
|||||||
Total shares (31 August 2018) (m) |
12.00 |
|||||||
Value per basic share (€m) |
€23.71 |
|||||||
Source: Edison Investment Research
Financials
Quantum Genomics reported an operational loss of €6.8m in H118 compared to €4.5m in H117, with the increase primarily driven by NEW-HOPE. We have increased our operating loss estimate from €10.9m to €12.6m for 2018 due to a higher than expected run rate, but have left later years unchanged as we already model increasing burn rates. The company ended H118 with €6.0m in cash and investments, adding approximately €0.7m from their €24.0m equity line from Kepler Cheuvreux during the half year. At the current run-rate, the company has stated it believes the equity line would fund it through the end of 2020. We believe that this will be dependent on whether additional trials are conducted by the company or a partner. As late-stage cardiovascular trials are extremely expensive to conduct, we expect further development (such as Phase III trials) to be financed via a partnership.
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
€000s |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
||
Year end 31 December |
PCG |
PCG |
PCG |
PCG |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Cost of Sales |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Gross Profit |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
(6,216) |
(10,292) |
(12,622) |
(14,792) |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
(6,216) |
(10,292) |
(12,622) |
(14,792) |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
1 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
(6,216) |
(10,292) |
(12,622) |
(14,792) |
||
Net Interest |
0 |
0 |
(485) |
(1,445) |
||
Other |
18 |
(176) |
(61) |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(6,216) |
(10,292) |
(13,107) |
(16,237) |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
(6,198) |
(10,468) |
(13,167) |
(16,237) |
Tax |
958 |
1,150 |
1,482 |
2,111 |
||
Deferred tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(5,258) |
(9,142) |
(11,625) |
(14,126) |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
(5,240) |
(9,318) |
(11,686) |
(14,126) |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
8.7 |
9.9 |
13.6 |
14.1 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
(59.79) |
(92.81) |
(85.58) |
(100.00) |
EPS - FRS 3 (€) |
|
|
(0.60) |
(0.95) |
(0.86) |
(1.00) |
Dividend per share (c) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
701 |
439 |
437 |
437 |
Intangible Assets |
142 |
91 |
87 |
87 |
||
Tangible Assets |
60 |
52 |
59 |
59 |
||
Other |
500 |
296 |
292 |
292 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
13,809 |
13,478 |
16,421 |
14,295 |
Stocks |
1,011 |
189 |
139 |
139 |
||
Debtors |
1,599 |
2,197 |
3,127 |
3,127 |
||
Cash |
11,198 |
11,089 |
13,155 |
11,029 |
||
Other |
1 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(3,481) |
(4,572) |
(5,759) |
(5,759) |
Creditors |
(3,480) |
(4,571) |
(5,758) |
(5,758) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(1) |
(1) |
(1) |
(1) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(506) |
(474) |
(6,626) |
(18,626) |
Long term borrowings |
(18) |
(19) |
(6,060) |
(18,060) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(488) |
(454) |
(566) |
(566) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
10,524 |
8,871 |
4,473 |
(9,653) |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
(5,531) |
(7,977) |
(9,863) |
(14,112) |
Net Interest |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Capex |
(66) |
32 |
(14) |
(14) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
7,744 |
7,733 |
6,000 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
399 |
104 |
(57) |
0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
2,546 |
(108) |
(3,934) |
(14,126) |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(8,573) |
(11,179) |
(11,069) |
(7,094) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exchange rate movements |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
60 |
-2 |
-41 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(11,179) |
(11,069) |
(7,094) |
7,032 |
Source: Edison Investment Research, company reports
|
|
Research: TMT
YouGov has delivered strong results that demonstrate the success of its shift in its business model towards a real-time data analytics business with a growing subscription revenue base. It continues to innovate, developing new products and services and augmenting the existing offering and is further expanding its geographic reach, with the investment supported by the cash-rich balance sheet. A new five-year plan is expected to be set out in Spring 2019 and we anticipate that this will also have ambitious targets for growth and earnings that will support the premium rating.