Last close As at 05/08/2026
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▲ 0.20 (0.45%)
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GBP89m
Research: Financials
Record’s second quarter update showed an increase in dollar denominated AUME to a new high of over $60bn. Flows were modestly negative but this was well within the normal range of quarterly volatility; the main reasons for a moderate reduction in our earnings estimates are the currency-related reduction in sterling AUME and increased costs to enhance customer service and deal with regulatory changes. After recent weakness the shares trade on below average earnings multiples and offer an attractive yield.
Written by
Record |
Market trends help but costs and forex hinder |
Q218 trading update |
Financial services |
25 October 2017 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
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Record’s second quarter update showed an increase in dollar denominated AUME to a new high of over $60bn. Flows were modestly negative but this was well within the normal range of quarterly volatility; the main reasons for a moderate reduction in our earnings estimates are the currency-related reduction in sterling AUME and increased costs to enhance customer service and deal with regulatory changes. After recent weakness the shares trade on below average earnings multiples and offer an attractive yield.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS** |
P/E |
Yield** |
03/16 |
21.2 |
7.0 |
2.54 |
1.65 |
17.8 |
3.6 |
03/17 |
23.1 |
7.9 |
2.90 |
2.00 |
15.6 |
4.4 |
03/18e |
24.6 |
8.1 |
3.11 |
2.10 |
14.5 |
4.6 |
03/19e |
25.0 |
8.2 |
3.30 |
2.20 |
13.7 |
4.9 |
Note: *PBT and EPS exclude non-controlling interests relating to seed investments and EPS are diluted. **Prospective DPS excludes special dividends.
Q218 update
In its second quarter update Record reported that in US dollar terms AUME reached $61.2bn at end September, an increase of 2.2% since the end of June. Dollar weakness over the period resulted in a small reduction in AUME in sterling terms to £45.6bn (£46.1bn end June). Flows during the quarter were modestly negative (-1.7% or $1bn) while positive movements in global equity and other markets added $2bn to AUME with FX movements contributing a further $0.2bn to the dollar-denominated figure. Record has continued to invest in enhancing its service to customers and addressing regulatory changes such as the EMIR-mandated requirement for clients to post collateral against currency positions. This has resulted in some increase in headcount and costs that, together with the reduction in sterling AUME and operational gearing, has resulted in a reduction in our earnings estimates of c 8%.
Outlook
While near-term estimates are trimmed by this combination of currency movements and investment to support enhanced products, on a longer view the focus on client service and the uncertain global macro background (and hence potential volatility) are positive factors in retaining and adding further clients. Currency-for-return products account for less than 10% of AUME and fees at the current run rate but have, as a group, continued to generate positive returns creating the basis for attracting additional allocations over time.
Valuation
Record stands on below average P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples when compared with a group of UK asset managers (page 4). The company remains well capitalised with cash and money market instruments of c £20m at end March after adjusting for the £10m tender offer in July. It is therefore well placed to follow its progressive dividend policy and currently offers an attractive yield of nearly 5%.
Second quarter trading update
Key points from the Q218 update were as follows.
■
AUME in dollar terms increased from $59.9bn at end June to $61.2bn at end September (+2.2%).
■
AUME in sterling terms was slightly down (-1.1%), reflecting dollar weakness.
■
There was a net outflow of $1bn including $0.6bn for dynamic hedging and $0.5bn for passive hedging. There was a $0.1m positive movement on cash and futures.
■
Market and other movements increased AUME by $2.3bn including $2bn from equity and other market movements, $0.2bn from FX movements relating to non-US dollar mandates and a $0.1bn scaling up of AUME within currency-for-return products for mandates with a volatility target. Such scaling (upwards or downwards) in these mandates does not result in a change in fees.
■
Exhibit 1 summarises these changes and illustrates the relatively modest scale of the moves during the quarter. Exhibit 2 shows the longer-term evolution of AUME.
■
A further rough indicator of progress is the number of clients which stood at 59 compared with 58 in June this year and 48 at the end of FY14. This number is based on separate legal entities which can result in lumpy movements if several linked mandates are added or subtracted. In this period one client left (UK dynamic hedging as noted previously) and two joined. Prospectively, there may be some reduction in client numbers as smaller mandates terminate following implementation of the rules requiring collateral to be posted against FX positions.
■
Fee rates remain broadly stable and there were no performance fees in the quarter.
■
Record notes that it has continued to invest in personnel to support innovation and enhanced products. There are also costs relating to regulatory change including EMIR and related collateral management and, to a limited extent MiFID II, as Record will absorb research costs itself.
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Exhibit 1: Q218 AUME change analysis |
Exhibit 2: Longer-term AUME progression |
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Source: Record, Edison Investment Research |
Source: Record, Edison Investment Research |
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Exhibit 1: Q218 AUME change analysis |
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Source: Record, Edison Investment Research |
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Exhibit 2: Longer-term AUME progression |
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|
Source: Record, Edison Investment Research |
As a reminder we have included Exhibits 3 and 4 which show the composition of AUME and revenues by segment (the latter is based on indicative fee margins and AUME at the end Q218). The difference between the charts reflects the lower fees rates that apply for passive mandates in particular that nevertheless account for nearly 60% of revenues. Passive mandates also tend to be stickier than other mandates and with more than half of passive AUME based in Switzerland the opening of Record’s Zurich office makes sense and should help strengthen existing and establish new relationships.
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Exhibit 3: AUME composition by segment |
Exhibit 4: Revenue by segment |
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|
Source: Record, Edison Investment Research |
Source: Record, Edison Investment Research |
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Exhibit 3: AUME composition by segment |
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Source: Record, Edison Investment Research |
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Exhibit 4: Revenue by segment |
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Source: Record, Edison Investment Research |
Performance for most strategies within currency for return was positive during the quarter with the multi-strategy product (ungeared) showing a positive return of 0.08% with the annualised performance since inception (end July 2012) being +1.52%.
Financials
Reflecting the modest reduction in sterling denominated AUME since the beginning of the year, we have trimmed our revenue assumptions for this year and next by 2%. The combination of operational gearing and an allowance for a slightly higher headcount means that our pre-tax profit and earnings per share estimates are reduced by 8% for both forecast years (see Exhibit 5).
Exhibit 5: Estimate changes
|
Revenue* (£m) |
% |
PBT* (£m) |
% |
EPS (p) |
% |
DPS (p) |
% |
||||
|
Old |
New |
chg |
Old |
New |
chg |
Old |
New |
chg |
Old |
New |
chg |
03/18e |
25.1 |
24.6 |
-2% |
8.8 |
8.1 |
-8% |
3.39 |
3.11 |
-8% |
2.10 |
2.10 |
0% |
03/19e |
25.6 |
25.0 |
-2% |
9.0 |
8.2 |
-8% |
3.59 |
3.30 |
-8% |
2.20 |
2.20 |
0% |
Source: Record, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Normalised
As in previous estimates we allow for market appreciation of 2% per annum in the hedging mandates to allow for market exposure but do not factor in any incremental mandate wins or losses or changes in asset allocation within existing mandates. There could be significant variation from these assumptions subject to market conditions and success in adding new clients. While currency volatility has recently been relatively subdued (Exhibit 6) the global macroeconomic and geopolitical background continues to highlight the potential for significant surprises and hence spikes in volatility creating a favourable environment for conversations with potential clients.
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Exhibit 6: Implied volatility for one year at the money options CHF and EUR versus USD |
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Source: Bloomberg. Note: CHF = Swiss franc, EUR = euro, USD = US$. |
Valuation
We have updated our comparative table which shows P/Es and EBITDA multiples for Record and a selection of UK asset managers. As usual the caveat here is that Record is differentiated by its specialist service offering but AUME is in part linked to stock and other market levels and fees generally depend on the level of AUME, as for conventional asset managers with AUM.
Record trades on below average earnings and EBITDA multiples (Exhibit 7) and, with earnings set to be largely distributed, offers an attractive yield (prospective yield approaching 5%).
Exhibit 7: Earnings and EBITDA multiples for UK fund managers
Price |
Market capitalisation |
P/E |
EV/EBITDA |
|
Aberdeen Asset Management |
434.0 |
12,922 |
14.2 |
N/A |
Ashmore |
380.0 |
2,708 |
17.3 |
12.0 |
City of London Inv Group |
405.0 |
109 |
10.6 |
8.1 |
Impax Asset Management |
149.0 |
190 |
26.7 |
39.3 |
Janus Henderson |
35.2 |
5,353 |
14.8 |
11.3 |
Jupiter |
589.5 |
2,698 |
17.0 |
13.7 |
Liontrust |
497.0 |
246 |
18.0 |
18.6 |
Man Group |
189.3 |
3,129 |
11.8 |
Loss |
Polar Capital |
475.3 |
441 |
18.0 |
18.9 |
Schroders |
3482.0 |
9,284 |
16.8 |
16.6 |
Average |
16.5 |
17.3 |
||
Record |
43.3 |
86 |
14.9 |
6.7 |
Source: Bloomberg, Edison Investment Research. Note: Using calendar 2017 estimated earnings and last reported EBITDA. Priced as at 24 October 2017.
Exhibit 8: Financial summary
£'000s |
|
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
|
March |
|
|
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue (underlying) |
|
|
20,865 |
21,246 |
23,128 |
24,578 |
25,005 |
Revenue |
|
|
21,057 |
21,134 |
23,928 |
24,578 |
25,005 |
Operating expenses |
|
|
(13,521) |
(14,344) |
(15,365) |
(16,564) |
(16,867) |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
|
7,536 |
6,790 |
8,563 |
8,014 |
8,138 |
Finance income |
|
|
146 |
143 |
112 |
64 |
109 |
Profit Before Tax |
|
|
7,682 |
6,933 |
8,675 |
8,079 |
8,247 |
Taxation |
(1,708) |
(1,523) |
(1,540) |
(1,616) |
(1,649) |
||
Minority interests |
|
|
(192) |
131 |
(819) |
0 |
0 |
Attributable profit |
|
|
5,782 |
5,541 |
6,316 |
6,463 |
6,598 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Normalised revenue (underlying) |
|
|
20,865 |
21,246 |
23,128 |
24,578 |
25,005 |
Operating expenses (excl. dep'n and amortisation) |
|
|
(13,206) |
(14,023) |
(15,023) |
(16,235) |
(16,538) |
Normalised EBITDA |
|
|
7,659 |
7,223 |
8,105 |
8,343 |
8,467 |
Depreciation and amortisation |
|
|
(315) |
(321) |
(342) |
(329) |
(329) |
Normalised Operating profits |
|
|
7,344 |
6,902 |
7,763 |
8,014 |
8,138 |
Finance income |
|
|
146 |
143 |
112 |
64 |
109 |
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
7,490 |
7,045 |
7,875 |
8,079 |
8,247 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Normalised revenue/AUME (excl. perf fees) bps |
|
|
6.0 |
5.4 |
6.0 |
5.7 |
5.6 |
Normalised operating margin (%) |
|
|
35.2 |
32.5 |
33.6 |
32.6 |
32.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Diluted Shares Outstanding (m) |
|
|
218.4 |
217.9 |
218.0 |
207.5 |
200.1 |
Basic EPS (p) |
|
|
2.66 |
2.55 |
2.91 |
3.13 |
3.31 |
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
2.65 |
2.54 |
2.90 |
3.11 |
3.30 |
Dividend per share (p) |
|
|
1.65 |
1.65 |
2.00 |
2.10 |
2.20 |
Special dividend per share (p) |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.91 |
1.03 |
1.11 |
Total dividend (p) |
|
|
1.65 |
1.65 |
2.91 |
3.13 |
3.31 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fixed Assets |
|
|
3,273 |
423 |
1,228 |
1,129 |
1,030 |
Intangible Assets |
|
|
504 |
299 |
245 |
115 |
(15) |
Tangible Assets |
|
|
129 |
81 |
881 |
912 |
943 |
Investments |
|
|
2,567 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Deferred tax assets |
|
|
73 |
43 |
102 |
102 |
102 |
Current Assets |
|
|
37,053 |
40,541 |
44,247 |
34,104 |
34,527 |
Debtors |
|
|
6,324 |
5,695 |
6,972 |
7,409 |
7,538 |
Cash |
|
|
12,010 |
21,720 |
19,120 |
8,540 |
8,834 |
Money market instruments |
|
|
18,100 |
13,020 |
18,102 |
18,102 |
18,102 |
Other |
|
|
619 |
106 |
53 |
53 |
53 |
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(4,522) |
(3,256) |
(3,865) |
(4,102) |
(4,158) |
Creditors |
|
|
(2,949) |
(2,372) |
(3,013) |
(3,202) |
(3,258) |
Other |
|
|
(1,573) |
(884) |
(852) |
(900) |
(900) |
Net Assets |
|
|
35,804 |
37,708 |
41,610 |
31,131 |
31,399 |
Minority interests |
|
|
3,876 |
4,019 |
4,779 |
4,779 |
4,779 |
Net assets attributable to ordinary shareholders |
|
31,928 |
33,689 |
36,831 |
26,352 |
26,620 |
|
No of shares at year end |
|
|
217.5 |
217.2 |
221.4 |
199.1 |
199.1 |
NAV per share p |
14.7 |
15.5 |
16.6 |
13.2 |
13.4 |
||
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
6,472 |
5,509 |
7,166 |
6,527 |
6,744 |
Capex |
|
|
(128) |
(29) |
(899) |
(130) |
(130) |
Cash flow from investing activities |
|
|
0 |
(39) |
(189) |
(100) |
(100) |
Dividends |
|
|
(3,266) |
(3,750) |
(3,592) |
(6,942) |
(6,329) |
Other financing activities |
|
|
(2,571) |
7,737 |
(5,222) |
(9,936) |
109 |
Other |
|
|
0 |
282 |
136 |
0 |
0 |
Net Cash Flow |
|
|
507 |
9,710 |
(2,600) |
(10,580) |
294 |
Opening cash/(net debt) |
|
|
11,503 |
12,010 |
21,720 |
19,120 |
8,540 |
Other |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Closing net (debt)/cash |
|
|
12,010 |
21,720 |
19,120 |
8,540 |
8,834 |
Closing net debt/(cash) inc money market instruments |
30,110 |
34,740 |
37,222 |
26,642 |
26,936 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AUME |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Opening ($'bn) |
|
|
51.9 |
55.4 |
52.9 |
58.2 |
58.29 |
Net new money flows |
|
|
2.9 |
(1.4) |
3.1 |
(1.0) |
0.0 |
Market/other |
|
|
0.6 |
(1.1) |
2.2 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
Closing ($'bn) |
|
|
55.4 |
52.9 |
58.2 |
58.3 |
59.4 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
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Research: Investment Companies
Seneca Global Income & Growth Trust (SIGT) has changed its benchmark to a more relevant CPI +6% rather than Libor +3%, aiming to achieve an average annual return of 6% above the rate of UK inflation over the course of a typical investment cycle. There has been no change to the investment process; SIGT seeks to generate long-term growth in capital and income, with low volatility of returns, from a portfolio of multiple asset classes. Anticipating a global economic downturn in 2020, SIGT is gradually reducing its equity exposure. At end-September 2017, its tactical asset allocation (TAA) was 59% to equities and 41% to other asset classes, including more than 25% to specialist assets, which generally yield 5-8%. SIGT aims to grow annual dividends at least in line with UK inflation (as achieved in each of the last four financial years). The trust has outperformed its blended benchmark and the FTSE All-Share index over one, three and five years and since its change of mandate in 2012.