Allium has reported H118 financial results. Revenues increased 31% y-o-y to NIS4.9m. As before, we continue to expect additional product approvals during 2018 and sales growth from its distribution deals in new and established markets. We maintain our FY18 sales forecast of NIS14m with a projected 2017-2020e revenue CAGR of 57%. We continue to believe that regional expansion is crucial to the company’s investment case. Our valuation, updated for net cash of NIS16.6m, is NIS1.82 per share.
Written by
Allium Medical Solutions |
Making progress across the board |
H118 financial update |
Medical devices |
20 August 2018 |
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Allium has reported H118 financial results. Revenues increased 31% y-o-y to NIS4.9m. As before, we continue to expect additional product approvals during 2018 and sales growth from its distribution deals in new and established markets. We maintain our FY18 sales forecast of NIS14m with a projected 2017-2020e revenue CAGR of 57%. We continue to believe that regional expansion is crucial to the company’s investment case. Our valuation, updated for net cash of NIS16.6m, is NIS1.82 per share.
Year |
Revenue (NISm) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/16 |
7.4 |
(22.0) |
(0.49) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/17 |
7.7 |
(21.4) |
(0.37) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/18e |
14.0 |
(13.7) |
(0.19) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/19e |
21.0 |
(9.6) |
(0.13) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
Note: *Normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptionals.
H118 revenues 31% higher; FY18 forecast maintained
Revenues in H118 were up 31% to NIS4.9m vs NIS3.7m in H117. Sales have been driven mainly by Allium Stents in Europe and approvals in new territories, mainly China. Other marketed products are EndoFast fixation device for urogynecology in Europe and Israel, and Gardia’s embolic protection system in Europe and the US. Importantly, the gross margin increased to 40% from 25% in H117 due to economies of scale, higher prices and higher efficiency of the production process. R&D spend was similar to H117 (NIS7.3m and NIS7.1m respectively), while S&M expenses were up 33% due to increased marketing activity. G&A expenses grew 37% to NIS4.9m due to non-cash costs associated with stock-based compensation resulting from an option grant worth NIS769k and one-off costs for Allevetix patents. We maintain our FY18 revenue forecast of NIS14m as we expect sales to accelerate in H218 due to increasing marketing activity in new territories. We also maintain our FY18 EBITDA loss forecast of NIS13.2m (NIS11m loss in H118) as some H118 expenses were one-off. That said, we see some downside risk to our estimates. We expect cash of NIS16.6m at end H118 to provide runway into H219.
Consolidating its business
The full portfolio of ureteral stents is being marketed in China under a distribution agreement worth NIS58m over eight years. Furthermore, the prostatic and bulbar urethral stents and EndoFast are approved in Russia; we expect approval and marketing of the rest of the stents this year (distribution agreement worth NIS48m over five years). Additionally, Allium sells its ureteral stents in Mexico and we expect approval of the rest of stents and EndoFast in the country by end-2018 (distribution agreement worth NIS26m over five years). Gardia Medical’s Wirion system is FDA approved for leg artery catheterisation; it is the only embolic protection system cleared by the FDA with all atherectomy devices. The product is CE marked, and marketed in selected US and European centres. Allium’s strategy is to reach a strategic agreement with an industry leader. In its H118 report, it estimates reaching such an agreement in Q318.
Valuation: Updated DCF value of NIS1.82/share
Our valuation is NIS1.82/share (NIS1.91 before) as we update our model for net cash of NIS16.6m. All our underlying assumptions are unchanged.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
NIS'000s |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
7,353 |
7,703 |
13,972 |
20,993 |
Cost of Sales |
(5,171) |
(5,687) |
(8,579) |
(10,520) |
||
Gross Profit |
2,182 |
2,016 |
5,392 |
10,474 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
(20,377) |
(20,826) |
(13,174) |
(9,014) |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
(20,759) |
(21,219) |
(13,549) |
(9,347) |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
(1,579) |
(1,623) |
(1,551) |
(1,378) |
||
Exceptionals |
(295) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
(22,632) |
(22,842) |
(15,100) |
(10,725) |
||
Net Interest |
(1,283) |
(163) |
(135) |
(202) |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(22,042) |
(21,382) |
(13,684) |
(9,550) |
Profit Before Tax (IFRS) |
|
|
(23,916) |
(22,679) |
(15,236) |
(10,928) |
Tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(22,042) |
(21,382) |
(13,684) |
(9,550) |
||
Profit After Tax (IFRS) |
(23,916) |
(22,679) |
(15,236) |
(10,928) |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
44.97 |
58.25 |
71.54 |
71.54 |
||
EPS - normalised (NIS) |
|
|
(0.49) |
(0.37) |
(0.19) |
(0.13) |
EPS - IFRS (NIS) |
|
|
(0.53) |
(0.39) |
(0.21) |
(0.15) |
Dividend per share (NIS) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
30% |
26% |
39% |
50% |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
23,616 |
22,244 |
20,417 |
18,806 |
Intangible Assets |
22,465 |
20,916 |
19,364 |
17,986 |
||
Tangible Assets |
1,025 |
1,059 |
784 |
550 |
||
Restricted cash |
126 |
269 |
269 |
269 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
28,606 |
29,609 |
15,815 |
26,627 |
Stocks |
2,516 |
2,661 |
2,278 |
2,534 |
||
Debtors |
1,253 |
1,491 |
1,531 |
2,013 |
||
Cash, equivalents and short term deposits |
23,203 |
22,953 |
9,501 |
19,576 |
||
Other |
1,634 |
2,504 |
2,504 |
2,504 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(12,660) |
(11,962) |
(11,798) |
(12,147) |
Creditors |
(1,890) |
(1,987) |
(1,823) |
(2,172) |
||
Accruals |
(936) |
(185) |
(185) |
(185) |
||
Other short term liabilities |
(4,124) |
(4,373) |
(4,373) |
(4,373) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(1,368) |
(1,134) |
(913) |
(20,692) |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(20,000) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(1,368) |
(1,134) |
(913) |
(692) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
38,194 |
38,757 |
23,521 |
12,593 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
(17,258) |
(18,418) |
(13,131) |
(9,605) |
Net Interest |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Capex |
(220) |
(501) |
(100) |
(100) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
(4,005) |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
13,956 |
19,125 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(328) |
(456) |
(221) |
(221) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(3,850) |
(4,255) |
(13,452) |
(9,926) |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(27,053) |
(23,203) |
(22,953) |
(9,501) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
4,005 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(23,203) |
(22,953) |
(9,501) |
424 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
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During the Q218 results call, 4SC management announced that with current funds, it plans to initiate some of its additional domatinostat trials including the pivotal Merkel-cell carcinoma (MCC) study and a Phase II skin cancer checkpoint combination study. 4SC will provide further detail in H218. The SENSITIZE study (Phase Ib/II, melanoma) is on track in Europe (data H119), while a new IND will allow expansion of the study into the US in 2019. The EMERGE study (Phase II, GI cancers) is now expected to initiate in Q318 (previously H118). The multiple domatinostat studies in H218/H119 will provide several R&D catalysts while investors wait for pivotal RESMAIN study data. Enrolment for the RESMAIN study (CTCL) continues in Europe and Japan (100/150 patients by end-2018), and top-line data are now expected in H219 (previously H119). Due to this modest delay, we now forecast resminostat launch in 2021 (previously 2020), and therefore slightly lower our valuation to €327m or €10.7/share (vs €11.4/share).