Last close As at 05/08/2026
EUR3.07
— 0.00 (0.00%)
Market capitalisation
EUR22m
Research: Consumer
bet-at-home is a long-established sports betting brand, successfully cross-selling into gaming. As a result of last year’s IP blocking in Poland, Q218 gross gaming revenues (GGR) declined 15.6% to €33.4m. EBITDA was additionally affected by FIFA World Cup marketing spend but management has reiterated FY18 guidance of €150m revenues and €36–40m EBITDA. Risks to forecasts include uncertainty regarding e-gaming regulation in core markets. Largely due to regulatory concerns, the stock is down 40% year to date, trading at 9.7x EV/EBITDA and 12.7x P/E for 2018e. This is in line with peers, but the company’s strong cash position and ability to pay special dividends is very attractive.
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bet-at-home |
Looking for a stronger performance in H218
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Travel & leisure |
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10 September 2018 |
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bet-at-home is a long-established sports betting brand, successfully cross-selling into gaming. As a result of last year’s IP blocking in Poland, Q218 gross gaming revenues (GGR) declined 15.6% to €33.4m. EBITDA was additionally affected by FIFA World Cup marketing spend but management has reiterated FY18 guidance of €150m revenues and €36–40m EBITDA. Risks to forecasts include uncertainty regarding e-gaming regulation in core markets. Largely due to regulatory concerns, the stock is down 40% year to date, trading at 9.7x EV/EBITDA and 12.7x P/E for 2018e. This is in line with peers, but the company’s strong cash position and ability to pay special dividends is very attractive.
Regulatory burdens in Poland and Switzerland
At H118, bet-at-home’s main markets were Germany (36% of gross win), Austria (31%) and Eastern Europe (18%). The mix of GGR between sports and e-gaming (casino, poker) was 43/57%, demonstrating successful cross-selling into gaming. Some of its markets are fully regulated (eg UK), but formal licensing has not yet been introduced in many of its main markets, where it pays taxes and VAT as applicable and operates under its EU licence. Regulatory risks are high, as shown by last year’s IP blocking in Poland, with similar proposals (subsequently withdrawn) in Austria. In addition, Switzerland recently voted against foreign providers of online casinos (c 3% revenues).
Q218 EBITDA affected by higher marketing
Full H118 results have now been published, following the 30th July update. In a continuation of previous trends, Q218 revenues declined 15.6% to €33.4m, which is a direct result of IP blocking in Poland (introduced in July 2017). Higher marketing spend in the quarter led to a 6% increase in customers (five million) but a decline in EBITDA (€1.6m vs €12.4m in the prior year). We note the benefit from the FIFA World Cup will also fall into Q318. Importantly, management has reiterated FY18 guidance of €150m revenues and €36–40m EBITDA, suggesting a significant uptick in H218 EBITDA (€25–30m in H218 vs €10.9m in 1H18). This is in line with recently lowered consensus and assumes an unchanged regulatory environment.
Valuation: 9.7x 2018e EV/EBITDA
bet-at-home’s shares have fallen 40% ytd, largely due to regulatory concerns across many of its key markets. On consensus figures, the stock now trades at 9.7x EV/EBITDA and 12.7x P/E for 2018e, which is in line with the peer group. However, its healthy cash position and ability to pay special dividends is very attractive.
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Consensus estimates
Source: Bloomberg, Edison Investment Research |
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Bet-at-home is a client of Edison Investment Research Limited
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Disclaimer
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Disclaimer
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Research: Financials
Although MPC’s legacy retail portfolio is still weighing on its results, the company is making steady progress in shifting its business towards institutional, higher-margin clients (representing 52% of assets under management (AUM) at end June 2018). We also appreciate MPC’s expansion of the container ship fleet given this shipping segment now enjoys the most favourable demand/supply outlook. The company’s shares are trading at a c 30–40% discount to peers.