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Research: Consumer
Bragg has made a significant first entry into the US gaming market, with a deal to provide casino services and player account management to Seneca Gaming Corp (SGC), which operates three tribal casinos in Western New York. The agreement is in partnership with Kambi and rollout is to commence imminently for sports, with online casino to follow (pending regulation). Bragg has entered another partnership with Kambi to explore strategic options, primarily in the US. In our view, these two deals provide Bragg with enormous credibility and bode well for future growth prospects. We leave our forecasts unchanged, with Q3 figures due on 12 November. Another catalyst would be the sale of GiveMeSport (GMS).
Written by
Bragg Gaming Group |
Leaping into the US gaming market |
Kambi/Seneca partnership |
Technology |
5 November 2019 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Bragg Gaming Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Bragg has made a significant first entry into the US gaming market, with a deal to provide casino services and player account management to Seneca Gaming Corp (SGC), which operates three tribal casinos in Western New York. The agreement is in partnership with Kambi and rollout is to commence imminently for sports, with online casino to follow (pending regulation). Bragg has entered another partnership with Kambi to explore strategic options, primarily in the US. In our view, these two deals provide Bragg with enormous credibility and bode well for future growth prospects. We leave our forecasts unchanged, with Q3 figures due on 12 November. Another catalyst would be the sale of GiveMeSport (GMS).
Year end |
Revenue (C$m) |
EBITDA |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/18** |
12.2 |
(3.3) |
(0.05) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/19e |
38.4 |
1.7 |
0.01 |
0.0 |
13.8 |
N/A |
12/20e |
47.3 |
3.6 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
8.5 |
N/A |
12/21e |
54.5 |
5.1 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
9.6 |
N/A |
Note: *EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items and share-based payments. **FY18 results are largely from GiveMeSport (not Oryx).
Seneca: Tribal casinos in Western New York
SGC operates three tribal casinos in Western New York and has recently become the official casino partner of the Buffalo Bills. In order to deliver a fully integrated sportsbook offering, SGC has signed a multi-channel agreement, involving both Kambi and Bragg. Kambi will provide its portfolio of on-property sports wagering products inside SGC’s casinos, while Bragg (via Oryx) will provide casino and player account management services. SGC expects to begin the roll-out of on-property sportsbooks imminently, enabling all three casinos to offer sports betting before the end of the year. The Bragg-Kambi team also plans to launch online and mobile sports wagering and casino throughout the SGC network once regulatory clearance has been obtained (similar to other states such as New Jersey).
Kambi: A strategic partner for US growth
In tandem with the Seneca agreement, Bragg has also announced a global gaming partnership with Kambi to explore and collaborate on strategic opportunities, focusing primarily on the fast-growing US market. Kambi is a leading global sportsbook platform provider, with an existing presence in the US and this partnership provides Oryx with a great deal of credibility. For a discussion on Oryx’s business model, please see our September initiation report.
Valuation: High growth at 8.5x FY20 P/E
Bragg Gaming has a limited reporting history and has yet to generate net profit or positive net cash. However, the core Oryx business is growing very strongly and there should be upside to our figures from the US opportunity. On our current forecasts, the group trades at 13.5x EV/EBITDA and 8.5x P/E for FY20e. We note that the potential sale of GMS could also provide significant upside to our DCF valuation of C$0.36: every C$1m sale price equates to C$0.013/share upside.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
C$000s |
2018 |
2019e |
2020e |
2021e |
2022e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
12,226.1 |
38,371.6 |
47,285.4 |
54,469.1 |
60,207.4 |
Cost of Sales |
(6,123.2) |
(20,725.2) |
(25,534.1) |
(29,413.3) |
(32,512.0) |
||
Gross Profit |
6,102.9 |
17,646.5 |
21,751.3 |
25,055.8 |
27,695.4 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
(3,333.1) |
1,657.5 |
3,587.5 |
5,115.1 |
6,635.3 |
Normalised operating profit |
|
|
(3,385.6) |
1,186.1 |
3,108.3 |
4,628.0 |
6,140.0 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(22,944.9) |
(2,728.2) |
(2,728.2) |
(2,728.2) |
(2,728.2) |
||
One-off items inc changes in fair value of contingent/ deferred consideration |
(3,882.0) |
(4,897.6) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Share-based payments |
(5,128.3) |
(1,900.0) |
(1,400.0) |
(1,400.0) |
(1,400.0) |
||
Reported operating profit |
(35,340.9) |
(8,339.7) |
(1,019.9) |
499.8 |
2,011.8 |
||
Net Interest |
(249.4) |
(51.3) |
(530.7) |
(1,406.1) |
(1,842.9) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(3,635.0) |
1,134.8 |
2,577.7 |
3,221.8 |
4,297.1 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(35,590.3) |
(8,391.1) |
(1,550.6) |
(906.4) |
168.9 |
Reported tax |
(3.1) |
(235.7) |
(206.2) |
(257.7) |
(343.8) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(3,635.4) |
1,166.7 |
2,371.4 |
2,964.1 |
3,953.3 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(35,593.4) |
(8,626.8) |
(1,756.8) |
(1,164.1) |
(174.9) |
||
Discontinued operations |
0.0 |
(2,650.5) |
1,168.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
(3,635.4) |
1,166.7 |
2,371.4 |
2,964.1 |
3,954.3 |
||
Net income (reported) |
(35,593.4) |
(11,277.3) |
(588.3) |
(1,164.1) |
(174.9) |
||
Basic average number of shares outstanding (m) |
78 |
79 |
94 |
123 |
138 |
||
EPS - basic normalised (C$) |
|
|
(0.05) |
0.01 |
0.03 |
0.02 |
0.03 |
EPS - diluted normalised (C$) |
|
|
(0.05) |
0.01 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.03 |
EPS - basic reported (C$) |
|
|
(0.46) |
(0.14) |
(0.01) |
(0.01) |
(0.00) |
Dividend (C$) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
14.2 |
213.9 |
23.2 |
15.2 |
10.5 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
49.9 |
46.0 |
46.0 |
46.0 |
46.0 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
-27.3 |
4.3 |
7.6 |
9.4 |
11.0 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
-27.7 |
3.1 |
6.6 |
8.5 |
10.2 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
55,367.7 |
53,656.1 |
51,448.7 |
49,233.4 |
47,009.8 |
Intangible Assets |
55,075.2 |
52,595.0 |
50,486.7 |
48,378.5 |
46,270.3 |
||
Tangible Assets |
292.5 |
1,061.2 |
962.0 |
854.9 |
739.6 |
||
Investments & other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
15,445.1 |
8,504.8 |
9,875.8 |
11,846.8 |
14,815.8 |
Stocks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Debtors |
6,414.8 |
6,914.8 |
7,414.8 |
7,914.8 |
8,414.8 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
8,571.7 |
1,090.0 |
1,981.0 |
3,472.0 |
5,961.0 |
||
Other |
458.6 |
500.0 |
480.0 |
460.0 |
440.0 |
||
Assets classified as held for sale |
0.0 |
1,363.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(15,832.2) |
(24,312.1) |
(25,691.1) |
(7,941.1) |
(7,441.1) |
Creditors |
(12,453.1) |
(8,500.0) |
(8,000.0) |
(7,500.0) |
(7,000.0) |
||
Deferred and contingent consideration |
(3,038.0) |
(15,371.0) |
(17,250.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Short term borrowings |
(151.0) |
(291.1) |
(291.1) |
(291.1) |
(291.1) |
||
Other |
(190.1) |
(150.0) |
(150.0) |
(150.0) |
(150.0) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(30,113.1) |
(20,793.9) |
(11,248.9) |
(19,893.9) |
(19,913.9) |
Long term borrowings |
(434.2) |
(959.7) |
(8,665.2) |
(17,310.2) |
(17,330.2) |
||
Contingent Consideration |
(27,095.2) |
(17,250.5) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(29,678.9) |
(19,834.2) |
(2,583.7) |
(2,583.7) |
(2,583.7) |
||
Liabilities classified as held for sale |
0.0 |
(2,532.3) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
24,867.5 |
15,886.3 |
24,384.5 |
33,245.1 |
34,470.6 |
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
24,867.5 |
15,886.3 |
24,384.5 |
33,245.1 |
34,470.6 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
(2,969.4) |
1,657.5 |
3,587.5 |
5,115.1 |
6,635.3 |
||
Working capital |
5,457.0 |
(4,453.1) |
(1,000.0) |
(1,000.0) |
(1,000.0) |
||
Exceptional & other |
(3,208.2) |
(50.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Tax |
(3.1) |
(235.7) |
(206.2) |
(257.7) |
(343.8) |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
(723.6) |
(3,081.4) |
2,381.3 |
3,857.4 |
5,291.6 |
Capex |
(223.7) |
(1,500.0) |
(1,000.0) |
(1,000.0) |
(1,000.0) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(5,772.2) |
(1,755.0) |
(15,371.0) |
(17,250.0) |
0.0 |
||
Net interest |
(248.6) |
(31.3) |
(510.7) |
(1,386.1) |
(1,822.9) |
||
Equity financing |
12,839.0 |
800.0 |
7,685.5 |
8,625.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
0.0 |
(1,622.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
5,870.8 |
(7,189.7) |
(6,814.9) |
(7,153.8) |
2,468.6 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(2,368.5) |
(7,986.4) |
160.8 |
6,975.7 |
14,129.4 |
FX |
(252.9) |
(241.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
0.0 |
(716.5) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(7,986.4) |
160.8 |
6,975.7 |
14,129.4 |
11,660.8 |
Adjusted net debt/(cash) |
|
|
22,146.7 |
32,782.3 |
24,225.7 |
14,129.4 |
11,660.8 |
Source: Bragg Gaming accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: TMT
For the purposes of the Takeover Code, Edison Investment Research is deemed to be connected with Nanoco plc. Under Rule 20.1 Edison must not include any profit forecast, quantified financial benefits statement, asset valuation or estimate of other figures key to the offer, except to the extent that such forecasts, statements, valuations or estimates have been published prior to the offer period (as defined in the Takeover Code) by an offeror or the offeree company (as appropriate) in accordance with the requirements of the Code.
Consequently we have removed our estimates until the Offer Period ends.