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Research: Financials
The announcement of the launch of the Record Emerging Market Sustainable Finance Fund in partnership with UBS Global Wealth Management brings to fruition the first of the group’s new product initiatives within its modernisation and growth strategy. The initial fund size is larger than we assumed and there is good potential for growth in the long term.
Written by
Record |
Launch of new EM sustainable finance fund |
Fund launch update |
Financial services |
30 June 2021 |
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Record is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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The announcement of the launch of the Record Emerging Market Sustainable Finance Fund in partnership with UBS Global Wealth Management brings to fruition the first of the group’s new product initiatives within its modernisation and growth strategy. The initial fund size is larger than we assumed and there is good potential for growth in the long term.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT |
EPS* |
DPS** |
P/E |
Yield |
03/19 |
25.0 |
8.0 |
3.25 |
2.30 |
31.4 |
2.3 |
03/20 |
25.6 |
7.7 |
3.26 |
2.30 |
31.3 |
2.3 |
03/21 |
25.4 |
6.2 |
2.73 |
2.30 |
37.4 |
2.3 |
03/22e |
32.0 |
11.4 |
4.76 |
2.30 |
21.4 |
2.3 |
Note: *EPS is diluted. **DPS excludes special dividends.
New fund reflects existing strengths and innovation
The Record Emerging Market Sustainable Finance Fund has been launched in an exclusive strategic partnership with UBS Global Wealth Management arm of the UBS Group, which is a longstanding client of Record. The fund size at launch will be approximately $750m, which is above our previous assumption of c $350m. While not specified, we expect the management fee to be commensurate with an actively managed fixed-income fund providing diversifying revenue and opening up a new area for growth and product development in years to come. The fund draws on Record’s longstanding currency expertise and newly developed ESG and sustainable investment capabilities. The fund aims to improve the flow of finance to projects in emerging markets by absorbing currency risk and helping stabilise EM exchange rates; for investors the fund will provide daily liquidity and the manager aims for an attractive, reliable return. An update on Record’s new strategy can be found in our note following the FY21 results released earlier this month.
FY22 estimates increased
Reflecting the higher-than-expected fund launch size we have increased our revenue estimate for the current year by 4%, which translates to a 9% increase at the level of diluted earnings per share. See Exhibit 2 for further details. As in previous estimates we do not allow for further unannounced prospective fund flows or potential performance fees.
Valuation
Updating our comparative valuation table (Exhibit 1) shows that Record trades on a premium to the average P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios for a selection of UK asset managers. The positive impact of one of Record’s new product initiatives seen in our estimate upgrade in this note is supportive as is the opportunity for long-term development of sustainable investment products and the potential for performance fees over time.
Valuation comparison
We have updated our comparative valuation table including a selection of quoted UK fund managers. The Record share price has shown further strength over recent weeks and still trades at a premium to the average prospective (calendarised) P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples, although this has been moderated by our latest estimate increase.
Exhibit 1: Comparing valuation with UK fund managers
Price |
Market cap (£m) |
P/E 2021e |
P/E 2022e |
EV/EBITDA 2021e (x) |
Dividend yield (%) |
|
Ashmore |
388 |
2,761 |
14.7 |
14.8 |
10.1 |
4.4 |
City of London Investment Group |
538 |
273 |
12.4 |
12.0 |
N/A |
5.6 |
Impax Asset Management |
1,164 |
1,543 |
38.3 |
28.9 |
33.5 |
0.7 |
Jupiter |
273 |
1,507 |
10.7 |
10.2 |
6.5 |
6.3 |
Liontrust |
1,750 |
1,068 |
17.5 |
14.8 |
12.1 |
2.7 |
Man Group |
182 |
3,653 |
10.9 |
10.7 |
7.9 |
4.2 |
Polar Capital |
824 |
825 |
13.4 |
12.1 |
8.6 |
4.0 |
Schroders |
3,542 |
9,462 |
16.7 |
15.4 |
12.5 |
3.2 |
Average |
16.8 |
14.9 |
13.0 |
3.9 |
||
Record |
102.0 |
197 |
24.0 |
20.0 |
17.5 |
2.3 |
Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: P/E and EV/EBITDA on a calendar-year basis. Record’s dividend yield excludes the special dividend. Priced at 29 June 2021.
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
£'000s |
|
|
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022e |
Year end March |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue |
|
|
23,834 |
24,973 |
25,563 |
25,412 |
31,968 |
Operating expenses |
|
|
(16,735) |
(17,089) |
(17,996) |
(19,333) |
(20,563) |
Other income/(expense) |
|
|
173 |
(8) |
82 |
41 |
0 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
|
7,272 |
7,876 |
7,649 |
6,120 |
11,405 |
Finance income |
|
|
56 |
113 |
88 |
33 |
38 |
Profit Before Tax |
|
|
7,328 |
7,989 |
7,737 |
6,153 |
11,443 |
Taxation |
(1,182) |
(1,559) |
(1,365) |
(802) |
(2,174) |
||
Minority interests |
|
|
0 |
0 |
48 |
0 |
0 |
Attributable profit |
|
|
6,146 |
6,430 |
6,420 |
5,351 |
9,269 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue/AUME (excl. perf fees) bp |
|
|
5.1 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
5.4 |
Operating margin (%) |
|
|
30.5 |
31.5 |
29.9 |
24.1 |
35.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
|
|
206.5 |
198.1 |
197.1 |
196.2 |
194.9 |
Basic EPS (p) |
|
|
3.03 |
3.27 |
3.26 |
2.75 |
4.77 |
EPS - diluted (p) |
|
|
2.98 |
3.25 |
3.26 |
2.73 |
4.76 |
Dividend per share (p) |
|
|
2.30 |
2.30 |
2.30 |
2.30 |
2.30 |
Special dividend per share (p) |
|
|
0.50 |
0.69 |
0.41 |
0.45 |
2.10 |
Total dividend (p) |
|
|
2.80 |
2.99 |
2.71 |
2.75 |
4.40 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Non-current assets |
|
|
2,339 |
2,161 |
4,868 |
5,153 |
4,488 |
Intangible Assets |
|
|
228 |
288 |
470 |
420 |
405 |
Tangible Assets |
|
|
910 |
761 |
751 |
683 |
533 |
Investments |
|
|
1,115 |
1,112 |
2,472 |
3,046 |
3,046 |
Other |
|
|
86 |
0 |
1,175 |
1,004 |
504 |
Current Assets |
|
|
29,737 |
31,427 |
31,149 |
28,045 |
32,759 |
Debtors |
|
|
6,775 |
7,562 |
8,704 |
8,006 |
9,769 |
Cash |
|
|
12,498 |
12,966 |
14,294 |
6,847 |
9,798 |
Money market instruments |
|
|
10,198 |
10,735 |
7,958 |
12,932 |
12,932 |
Other |
|
|
266 |
164 |
193 |
260 |
260 |
Current liabilities |
|
|
(5,525) |
(6,158) |
(6,955) |
(5,992) |
(6,246) |
Creditors |
|
|
(2,630) |
(2,736) |
(3,009) |
(3,426) |
(4,180) |
Financial liabilities |
|
|
(2,467) |
(2,621) |
(2,191) |
(1,696) |
(1,696) |
Other |
|
|
(428) |
(801) |
(1,755) |
(870) |
(370) |
Non-current liabilities |
|
|
0 |
(29) |
(901) |
(407) |
(407) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net Assets |
|
|
26,551 |
27,401 |
28,161 |
26,799 |
30,594 |
Minority interests |
|
|
0 |
60 |
132 |
0 |
0 |
Net assets attributable to ordinary shareholders |
|
26,551 |
27,341 |
28,029 |
26,799 |
30,594 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
No of shares at year end (m) |
|
|
199.1 |
199.1 |
199.1 |
199.1 |
199.1 |
NAV per share (p) |
|
|
13.3 |
13.7 |
14.1 |
13.5 |
15.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
2,746 |
7,026 |
6,543 |
6,798 |
9,177 |
Capex |
|
|
(236) |
(72) |
(243) |
(230) |
(140) |
Cash flow from other investing activities |
|
|
7,899 |
(561) |
1,513 |
(6,210) |
(112) |
Dividends |
|
|
(6,810) |
(5,517) |
(5,888) |
(5,290) |
(5,474) |
Other financing activities |
|
|
(10,367) |
(613) |
(943) |
(2,368) |
(500) |
Other |
|
|
146 |
205 |
346 |
(147) |
0 |
Net Cash Flow |
|
|
(6,622) |
468 |
1,328 |
(7,447) |
2,951 |
Opening cash/(net debt) |
|
|
19,120 |
12,498 |
12,966 |
14,294 |
6,847 |
Closing net (debt)/cash |
|
|
12,498 |
12,966 |
14,294 |
6,847 |
9,798 |
Closing net (debt)/cash inc money market instruments |
22,696 |
23,701 |
22,252 |
19,779 |
22,730 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AUME ($bn) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Opening |
|
|
58.2 |
62.2 |
57.3 |
58.6 |
80.1 |
Net new money flows |
|
|
(1.2) |
(4.5) |
4.6 |
9.7 |
1.6 |
Market/other |
|
|
5.2 |
(0.4) |
(3.3) |
11.8 |
0.8 |
Closing |
|
|
62.2 |
57.3 |
58.6 |
80.1 |
82.5 |
Source: Record accounts; Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Consumer
Confirmation of recovery ‘much broader than staycations’, backed by continued significant outperformance of the midscale and economy hotel market in the quarter to May, highlights a predictably positive update by Whitbread. That is not to play down expected ‘very strong’ demand throughout the summer at tourist locations (c 15% of the estate). While key office-based demand may not pick up meaningfully until the autumn, robust finances, brand strength and economies of scale should allow Whitbread to benefit materially on pandemic fallout (Q122 saw further estate improvement in the UK and an expanding pipeline in Germany). The delay in easing UK lockdown restrictions until 19 July does not change management’s outlook and guidance for the full year to February 2022.