Ultra’s pre-close trading statement certainly contains reasons for optimism, especially better than expected order development. However, the continuing issues at Herley have led to a reduction of up to £6m in operating profit expectations for the group as a whole in FY18. The problems are no longer attributable solely to the larger than anticipated number of development contracts won, but clearly indicate unexpectedly high costs. The impact reduces FY18 EPS expectations by 6.7%, but should be contained to this year, with still good prospects for the production phases. Our fair value remains relatively unchanged at 1,811p from 1,816p previously.
Written by
Ultra Electronics |
Herley investment masks underlying progress |
Trading update |
Aerospace & defence |
2 July 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Ultra Electronics is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Ultra’s pre-close trading statement certainly contains reasons for optimism, especially better than expected order development. However, the continuing issues at Herley have led to a reduction of up to £6m in operating profit expectations for the group as a whole in FY18. The problems are no longer attributable solely to the larger than anticipated number of development contracts won, but clearly indicate unexpectedly high costs. The impact reduces FY18 EPS expectations by 6.7%, but should be contained to this year, with still good prospects for the production phases. Our fair value remains relatively unchanged at 1,811p from 1,816p previously.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/16 |
785.8 |
120.1 |
134.6 |
47.8 |
12.3 |
2.9 |
12/17 |
775.4 |
110.0 |
116.7 |
49.6 |
14.1 |
3.0 |
12/18e |
743.6 |
93.7 |
98.9 |
52.0 |
16.7 |
3.2 |
12/19e |
767.1 |
101.8 |
114.4 |
54.6 |
14.4 |
3.3 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Herley self-funded development cost increases
The company has indicated that the FY18 operating profit for the group will be some £4–6m below market expectations, as a result of the cost overruns on development contracts at Herley in the Communications & Security division. Historically, issues here have included work on the US Navy Surface Electronic Warfare Improvement Programme (SEWIP) and an Electronic Warfare contract for the F-15 aircraft platform. It appears now that the continued additional cost is at least partly due to changes in scope, some of which may be recoverable from the customer, but negotiations on such issues tend to be protracted. We have reduced our forecast for the current year by 6.7% at the pre-tax and earnings levels, largely due to the contract overruns, but also reflecting higher net debt and thus interest. We expect the additional costs to be contained in FY18, but the interest increase reduces our FY19 EPS estimate by 1.3% from 115.9p to 114.4p. We have increased our end 2018 net debt estimate by £35m to reflect Sparton costs, increased working capital and reduced earnings.
Market recovery encouraging elsewhere
The group order backlog of £972m is now standing at its highest level for several years and compares to £914m at the start of the year. The overall picture of improving global defence spending, especially in Ultra’s largest market, the US, indicates that this should continue driving a return to organic growth for the group. We expect the new CEO to reset Ultra for this more favourable market backdrop.
Valuation: Recovery potential not reflected in rating
Ultra shares had been recovering well ahead of this setback just as the new CEO takes office. However, the more positive picture outside Herley suggests Ultra is on track to renew organic growth and recover strongly in FY19. An FY19e P/E of 14.4x does not adequately reflect the improving defence prospects.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£m |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
785.8 |
775.4 |
743.6 |
767.1 |
Cost of Sales |
(580.9) |
(609.9) |
(640.4) |
(672.5) |
||
Gross Profit |
204.9 |
165.5 |
103.2 |
94.6 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
148.0 |
133.8 |
121.2 |
131.8 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
|
131.1 |
120.1 |
105.5 |
115.5 |
Intangible Amortisation |
(5.4) |
(3.5) |
(3.8) |
(4.3) |
||
Exceptionals |
(52.4) |
(49.4) |
(35.4) |
(24.6) |
||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Operating Profit |
73.3 |
67.2 |
66.2 |
86.6 |
||
Net Interest |
(11.1) |
(10.1) |
(11.8) |
(13.7) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
120.1 |
110.0 |
93.7 |
101.8 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
67.6 |
60.6 |
58.3 |
77.2 |
Tax |
(9.4) |
(11.7) |
(12.5) |
(16.6) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
94.7 |
86.3 |
73.5 |
79.9 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
52.9 |
45.4 |
41.9 |
56.3 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
70.3 |
74.0 |
74.4 |
69.9 |
||
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
134.6 |
116.7 |
98.9 |
114.4 |
EPS |
|
|
134.5 |
116.6 |
98.8 |
114.2 |
EPS - (IFRS) (p) |
|
|
75.2 |
61.4 |
56.4 |
80.6 |
Dividend per share (p) |
47.8 |
49.6 |
52.0 |
54.6 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
26.1 |
21.3 |
13.9 |
12.3 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
18.8 |
17.3 |
16.3 |
17.2 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
16.7 |
15.5 |
14.2 |
15.1 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
655.4 |
590.6 |
566.3 |
544.5 |
Intangible Assets |
589.2 |
531.4 |
508.6 |
488.1 |
||
Tangible Assets |
66.2 |
59.2 |
57.7 |
56.4 |
||
Investments |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
364.9 |
454.5 |
442.2 |
451.9 |
Stocks |
78.2 |
76.6 |
81.8 |
80.5 |
||
Debtors |
142.5 |
147.2 |
148.0 |
148.0 |
||
Cash |
74.6 |
149.5 |
132.5 |
142.5 |
||
Other |
69.6 |
81.2 |
79.9 |
80.8 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(178.6) |
(250.2) |
(176.9) |
(183.3) |
Creditors |
(178.6) |
(198.4) |
(176.9) |
(183.3) |
||
Short term borrowings |
0.0 |
(51.8) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(478.1) |
(282.7) |
(429.0) |
(421.1) |
Long term borrowings |
(331.3) |
(172.2) |
(317.9) |
(309.2) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(146.8) |
(110.4) |
(111.2) |
(111.9) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
363.6 |
512.2 |
402.5 |
392.0 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
117.8 |
100.8 |
84.9 |
135.5 |
Net Interest |
(7.5) |
(11.1) |
(10.1) |
(11.8) |
||
Tax |
(17.3) |
(11.7) |
(12.5) |
(16.6) |
||
Capex |
(7.4) |
(12.8) |
(16.1) |
(16.4) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
16.8 |
0.0 |
(18.0) |
0.0 |
||
Financing |
3.0 |
137.3 |
(100.5) |
(33.5) |
||
Dividends |
(32.6) |
(35.0) |
(38.5) |
(38.5) |
||
Other |
(34.0) |
14.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
38.9 |
182.2 |
(110.9) |
18.7 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
295.6 |
256.7 |
74.5 |
185.3 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
256.7 |
74.5 |
185.3 |
166.7 |
Source: Company reports, Edison Investment Research estimates
|
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