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Keywords’ acquisition of Studio Gobo and Electric Square for up to £26m meaningfully strengthens the company’s engineering service line, while enhancing our FY19 earnings by 6% based on conservative assumptions. In paying a maximum of 7.6x historic EBITDA for the business, the company looks to be buying a good asset in a high value-add service line at a very reasonable multiple.
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Keywords Studios |
Gobo strengthens engineering operations |
Engineering acquisition |
Software & comp services |
28 August 2018 |
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Keywords Studios is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Keywords’ acquisition of Studio Gobo and Electric Square for up to £26m meaningfully strengthens the company’s engineering service line, while enhancing our FY19 earnings by 6% based on conservative assumptions. In paying a maximum of 7.6x historic EBITDA for the business, the company looks to be buying a good asset in a high value-add service line at a very reasonable multiple.
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/16 |
96.6 |
14.9 |
20.3 |
1.3 |
109.4 |
0.07 |
12/17 |
151.4 |
23.0 |
29.9 |
1.5 |
74.2 |
0.08 |
12/18e |
257.6 |
37.8 |
48.6 |
1.6 |
45.7 |
0.08 |
12/19e |
299.2 |
45.5 |
56.0 |
1.8 |
39.6 |
0.09 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Strengthening the engineering service line
Studio Gobo and Electric Square are two Brighton, UK-based games engineering studios co-founded and led by games industry veteran, Tony Beckwith. Studio Gobo has a core strength in high-end console games development, providing full development (entire games, a new capability for Keywords) or co-development (parts of games) for a range of tier one clients including Ubisoft (For Honor), Microsoft (Miami Street) and Disney Infinity (Marvel Super Heroes, Guardians of the Galaxy). Electric Square has core strengths in live ops development (developing new features and downloadable content to keep gamers engaged) and free-to-play and racing games. The addition of the 170 Brighton-based engineers in the combined group (Gobo) brings Keywords’ engineering team to 610 people. While the business does have some risk from Brexit and a relatively high customer concentration, the acquisition by Keywords will help mitigate these.
FY19 EPS upgraded by 6%
Gobo’s revenues for the 12 months to 31 July are estimated at £11.6m, up strongly from £6.2m for the year to 30 September 2017. EBITDA of £3.6m represents a healthy 31% margin, vs Keywords 17% for FY18e. The consideration was £15m up front (a mix of £10.5m cash and 255k shares), with a further £11m contingent on achieving strong EBITDA growth in the first year following completion. This equates to a maximum of 7.6x historic EBITDA, which is well within Keywords’ norms for acquisitions. Assuming a c 15% revenue growth rate for Gobo, the deal enhances our FY19 EPS by 6%.
Valuation: Sustained execution should deliver returns
The c 40x FY19e P/E (c 22x EBITDA) clearly prices in continued strong progress, but further acquisitions and organic upside could bring this down substantially. We have highlighted the company’s ability to continue to make good acquisitions at attractive multiples as a key sensitivity to the investment case, especially as it expands into higher value-added services, and we see this acquisition as encouraging in this regard. We believe sustained execution should continue to deliver returns.
Estimate changes
Our estimate changes in Exhibit 1 incorporate the acquisition of Gobo; we also include July’s small acquisitions of Snowed In and Yokozuna for the first time.
In aggregate, FY19 EPS is upgraded by 6%, which is almost entirely due to the Gobo acquisition. For Gobo our forecast FY19 revenues of €14.8m (c £13.3m) with €4.2m EBITDA implies a c 15% revenue growth rate compared to respective figures of £11.6m and £3.6m for the year to 31 July 2018. The EBITDA contribution of €1.0m for the remainder of FY18 is more modest due to investment into the business, with a pick-up expected in H119 supported by the timing of projects already in the pipeline.
Similar to other companies providing full and co-development services (eg Sumo), Gobo’s customer base is relatively concentrated but these customers are sticky and Keywords’ broad customer network should help diversify this. The company also benefits from UK Video Games tax credits, which will be accounted for in the same way as the company’s multi-media tax credits, as a credit to cost of goods sold.
Snowed In and Yokozuna together add €2.5m to FY19 revenues but nothing to PBT on our forecasts, with forecast losses (€0.4m) from Yokozuna (currently pre-revenue) offsetting the positive contribution from Snowed In.
Our underlying P&L estimates are unchanged. However, factoring in the weaker dollar, the organic growth required to reach our full year number is now c 11% versus 7.5% were the USD dollar/euro rate to remain unchanged. Give the company’s recent positive trading update, we feel this forecast remains well supported.
Exhibit 1: Estimate changes incorporating acquisitions of Gobo, Yokozuna and Snowed In
€000s |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
||||||
31-December |
Actual |
Old |
New |
Change |
Old |
New |
Change |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
151,430 |
252,254 |
257,610 |
2 |
283,276 |
299,177 |
6 |
Cost of Sales |
(96,345) |
(161,749) |
(165,311) |
2 |
(181,812) |
(192,355) |
6 |
||
Gross Profit |
55,085 |
90,505 |
92,300 |
2 |
101,464 |
106,823 |
5 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
26,645 |
43,249 |
44,210 |
2 |
49,134 |
53,545 |
9 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
|
23,915 |
38,389 |
39,246 |
2 |
43,676 |
47,780 |
9 |
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
23,043 |
37,342 |
37,849 |
1 |
42,504 |
45,509 |
7 |
Profit After Tax (norm) |
18,312 |
29,948 |
30,355 |
1 |
34,428 |
36,862 |
7 |
||
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
29.9 |
47.7 |
48.6 |
2 |
52.8 |
56.0 |
6 |
EPS - (IFRS) (c) |
|
|
12.4 |
34.2 |
33.1 |
(3) |
43.2 |
44.9 |
4 |
Dividend per share (pence) |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
0 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(11,094) |
(19,155) |
(4,840) |
(75) |
(38,957) |
(14,823) |
(62) |
Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
€000s |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
96,585 |
151,430 |
257,610 |
299,177 |
Cost of Sales |
(59,907) |
(96,345) |
(165,311) |
(192,355) |
||
Gross Profit (inc multimedia tax credits) |
36,678 |
55,085 |
92,300 |
106,823 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
16,893 |
26,645 |
44,210 |
53,545 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
|
15,090 |
23,915 |
39,246 |
47,780 |
Intangible Amortisation |
(1,629) |
(3,038) |
(5,000) |
(5,500) |
||
Exceptionals |
(1,316) |
(3,016) |
(2,784) |
0 |
||
Other |
(686) |
(1,426) |
(1,854) |
(2,410) |
||
Operating Profit |
11,459 |
16,435 |
29,609 |
39,870 |
||
Net Interest |
(287) |
(872) |
(1,397) |
(2,271) |
||
FOREX |
(1,737) |
(3,569) |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
14,864 |
23,043 |
37,849 |
45,509 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
9,435 |
11,994 |
28,212 |
37,599 |
Tax |
(3,223) |
(4,731) |
(7,494) |
(8,647) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
11,641 |
18,312 |
30,355 |
36,862 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
6,212 |
7,263 |
20,717 |
28,952 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
55.9 |
58.7 |
62.5 |
64.5 |
||
EPS |
|
|
20.9 |
31.2 |
48.5 |
57.2 |
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
20.3 |
29.9 |
48.6 |
56.0 |
EPS - (IFRS) (c) |
|
|
11.2 |
12.4 |
33.1 |
44.9 |
Dividend per share (p) |
1.33 |
1.46 |
1.61 |
1.77 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
38.0% |
36.4% |
35.8% |
35.7% |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
17.5% |
17.6% |
17.2% |
17.9% |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
15.6% |
15.8% |
15.2% |
16.0% |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
61,873 |
143,872 |
165,226 |
174,962 |
Intangible Assets |
55,495 |
132,555 |
152,307 |
161,445 |
||
Tangible Assets |
5,498 |
10,111 |
11,713 |
12,311 |
||
Investments |
880 |
1,206 |
1,206 |
1,206 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
38,677 |
80,182 |
84,533 |
98,322 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
13,879 |
27,473 |
38,077 |
41,885 |
||
Cash |
17,020 |
30,374 |
24,120 |
34,103 |
||
Other |
7,778 |
22,335 |
22,335 |
22,335 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(27,830) |
(52,503) |
(48,005) |
(44,222) |
Creditors |
(19,805) |
(33,560) |
(29,062) |
(25,279) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(8,025) |
(18,943) |
(18,943) |
(18,943) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(6,016) |
(10,420) |
(10,365) |
(10,365) |
Long term borrowings |
(345) |
(337) |
(337) |
(337) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(5,671) |
(10,083) |
(10,028) |
(10,028) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
66,704 |
161,131 |
191,389 |
218,697 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
17,168 |
18,373 |
38,095 |
44,675 |
Net Interest |
(58) |
(253) |
(1,397) |
(2,271) |
||
Tax |
(2,129) |
(4,731) |
(7,494) |
(8,647) |
||
Capex |
(2,306) |
(3,803) |
(6,121) |
(6,363) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(21,104) |
(87,074) |
(27,502) |
(16,264) |
||
Financing |
643 |
82,936 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(825) |
(867) |
(1,034) |
(1,148) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(8,611) |
4,581 |
(5,453) |
9,982 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(17,284) |
(8,650) |
(11,094) |
(4,840) |
Forex gain on cash |
1 |
(891) |
(500) |
0 |
||
Other |
(24) |
(1,246) |
(301) |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(8,650) |
(11,094) |
(4,840) |
(14,823) |
Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: TMT
FY18 revenues grew by 13.1% at constant currencies (guidance was 10–15%), to CHF87.1m (we forecast CHF88.1m). EBITDA eased by 4.2% to CHF7.0m (we forecast CHF11.8m), mainly driven by the switch to SaaS. We have updated our forecasts for the trading news along with the acquisition of 80% of Elaxy Business Solution & Services (Elaxy BS&S) that was announced early last month. We have cut our EPS forecasts by 50% in FY18, 46% in FY19 and by 31% in FY20, with the trading news outweighing the earnings enhancement from Elaxy BS&S. The stable, cash-generative nature of Elaxy BS&S balances the higher-risk, stronger growth profile of Innofis, which was acquired at the beginning of 2018.