Checkit — FY23 ARR ahead of expectations

Checkit (AIM: CKT)

Last close As at 20/05/2024

GBP0.26

−0.30 (−1.14%)

Market capitalisation

GBP30m

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Research: TMT

Checkit — FY23 ARR ahead of expectations

Checkit’s FY23 trading update confirmed that year-end annual recurring revenue (ARR), FY23 reported revenue and year-end net cash beat our forecasts. ARR increased 28% y-o-y despite the challenging economic environment, as the company made good progress signing up new customers and expanding existing contracts. With 93% recurring revenue for continuing operations, the transition to a subscription-based model is complete. We will review our forecasts following FY23 results on 27 April.

Katherine Thompson

Written by

Katherine Thompson

Director

TMT

Checkit

FY23 ARR ahead of expectations

FY23 trading update

Software and comp services

16 February 2023

Price

30p

Market cap

£32m

Net cash (£m) at end-FY23

15.6

Shares in issue

108.0m

Free float

56%

Code

CKT

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

30.4

81.8

(31.8)

Rel (local)

28.1

68.8

(33.6)

52-week high/low

47p

14p

Business description

Checkit optimises the performance of people, processes and physical assets with its intelligent operations software. It is headquartered in Cambridge, UK, and has operations centres in Fleet, UK, and Tampa, US.

Next events

FY23 results

27 April

Analyst

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Checkit is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Checkit’s FY23 trading update confirmed that year-end annual recurring revenue (ARR), FY23 reported revenue and year-end net cash beat our forecasts. ARR increased 28% y-o-y despite the challenging economic environment, as the company made good progress signing up new customers and expanding existing contracts. With 93% recurring revenue for continuing operations, the transition to a subscription-based model is complete. We will review our forecasts following FY23 results on 27 April.

Year

end

Revenue
(£m)

ARR
(£m)

PBT*
(p)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

EV/sales
(x)

01/21

13.2

5.7

(3.1)

(5.2)

0.0

1.3

01/22

13.6

9.1

(4.7)

(7.0)

0.0

1.2

01/23e

10.4

10.8

(7.6)

(7.1)

0.0

1.6

01/24e

12.5

13.3

(5.2)

(4.9)

0.0

1.3

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

ARR of £11.5m up 28% y-o-y

Checkit reported ARR of £11.5m at the end of FY23, up 28% y-o-y and well ahead of our £10.8m forecast. In the United States, the company achieved 91% y-o-y growth in ARR to £2.8m, helped by contracts with biopharma customers and a new contract with a large resort and casino operator. The company recently disclosed that it had renewed one of its largest enterprise contracts with an integrated energy company to support more than 300 sites.

Successful transition to recurring revenue model

Checkit reported revenue from continuing operations of £10.3m (+22% y-o-y), with 41% growth in recurring revenue, which made up 93% of continuing revenue (up from 81% in FY22). Revenue of £0.6m from the BEMS business (FY22: £4.9m) was reported in discontinued operations. Total revenue of £10.9m compares to our £10.4m forecast. At the end of FY23, Checkit had net cash of £15.6m, ahead of our £15.2m forecast. We will review our forecasts when FY23 results are announced in April, when we expect the company to disclose the split of profitability between continuing and discontinued operations.

Valuation: Trading at a discount to peers

On our current estimates, on an EV/sales multiple of 1.6x for FY23e and 1.3x FY24e, Checkit trades at a material discount to the UK software sector (3.4x current year sales, 3.0x next year sales) and US SaaS peers (6.4x current year, 5.4x next year). If Checkit were to trade on the UK average for FY24e, it would be worth 49p per share and moving to trade in line with US SaaS peers would imply a valuation of 77p. Sustained ARR growth will be the key trigger for Checkit to attract a multiple more in line with SaaS peers, evidenced by customers signing up to use its software and existing customers expanding their usage. In the current environment, faster movement towards break-even is also likely to support the share price.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£'m

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023e

2024e

Year end 31 January

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

1.0

9.8

13.2

13.6

10.4

12.5

Cost of Sales

(1.0)

(7.2)

(6.7)

(7.4)

(4.2)

(4.4)

Gross Profit

0.0

2.6

6.5

6.2

6.3

8.1

EBITDA

 

 

(2.3)

(4.9)

(2.5)

(4.2)

(6.5)

(3.7)

Normalised operating profit

 

 

(4.4)

(6.5)

(3.1)

(4.7)

(7.6)

(5.2)

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(0.1)

(1.0)

(1.3)

(1.4)

(0.6)

(0.0)

Exceptionals

0.0

(1.7)

(0.9)

(1.0)

0.0

0.0

Share-based payments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.1)

0.0

Reported operating profit

(4.5)

(9.2)

(5.3)

(7.1)

(8.3)

(5.2)

Net Interest

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(4.4)

(6.4)

(3.1)

(4.7)

(7.6)

(5.2)

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(4.5)

(9.1)

(5.3)

(7.1)

(8.3)

(5.2)

Reported tax

0.0

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.1

0.0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(4.4)

(6.4)

(3.1)

(4.7)

(7.6)

(5.2)

Profit After Tax (reported)

(4.5)

(9.0)

(5.0)

(6.8)

(8.2)

(5.2)

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Discontinued operations

8.6

89.8

0.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net income (normalised)

(4.4)

(6.4)

(3.1)

(4.7)

(7.6)

(5.2)

Net income (reported)

4.1

80.8

(4.4)

(6.8)

(8.2)

(5.2)

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

178

161

62

68

108

108

EPS - basic normalised (p)

 

 

(2.5)

(4.0)

(5.2)

(7.0)

(7.1)

(4.9)

EPS - diluted normalised (p)

 

 

(2.5)

(4.0)

(5.2)

(7.0)

(7.1)

(4.9)

EPS - basic reported (p)

 

 

2.3

50.2

(7.2)

(10.0)

(7.6)

(4.9)

Dividend (p)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Revenue growth (%)

N/A

880.0

34.7

2.7

(22.9)

19.4

Gross Margin (%)

0.0

26.5

49.2

45.8

60.2

65.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

(230.0)

(50.0)

(18.9)

(31.0)

(62.6)

(30.0)

Normalised Operating Margin

(440.0)

(66.3)

(23.5)

(34.7)

(73.2)

(42.1)

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

5.0

8.5

6.8

8.3

9.6

10.3

Intangible Assets

2.9

7.3

6.0

7.3

8.4

8.9

Tangible Assets

1.7

1.2

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Investments & other

0.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Assets

 

 

19.5

19.8

17.5

28.7

19.0

13.3

Stocks

4.3

1.7

1.1

1.8

1.4

1.2

Debtors

5.1

3.4

4.4

2.6

2.3

2.6

Cash & cash equivalents

10.1

14.3

11.5

24.2

15.2

9.5

Other

0.0

0.4

0.5

0.1

0.0

0.0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(7.9)

(5.6)

(5.9)

(5.4)

(5.2)

(5.4)

Creditors

(7.6)

(5.1)

(5.6)

(4.9)

(4.7)

(4.9)

Tax and social security

(0.3)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Short term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.0

(0.5)

(0.3)

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(0.3)

(1.3)

(0.8)

(0.6)

(0.6)

(0.6)

Long term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other long term liabilities

(0.3)

(1.3)

(0.8)

(0.6)

(0.6)

(0.6)

Net Assets

 

 

16.3

21.4

17.6

31.0

22.9

17.6

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Shareholders' equity

 

 

16.3

21.4

17.6

31.0

22.9

17.6

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

(2.3)

(4.9)

(2.5)

(4.2)

(6.5)

(3.7)

Working capital

(0.5)

(1.0)

0.3

0.2

0.4

0.2

Exceptional & other

9.1

5.3

(0.7)

(1.0)

0.0

0.0

Tax

(0.5)

(0.5)

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

Net operating cash flow

 

 

5.8

(1.1)

(2.9)

(4.9)

(6.1)

(3.5)

Capex

(2.2)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(2.3)

(2.6)

(1.8)

Acquisitions/disposals

1.3

84.2

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.0

Net interest

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Equity financing

0.0

(77.9)

0.5

20.2

0.0

0.0

Dividends

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.0

(0.8)

(0.4)

(0.3)

(0.4)

(0.4)

Net Cash Flow

4.9

4.2

(2.8)

12.7

(9.0)

(5.7)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(5.2)

(10.1)

(14.3)

(11.5)

(24.2)

(15.2)

FX

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other non-cash movements

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(10.1)

(14.3)

(11.5)

(24.2)

(15.2)

(9.5)

Source: Checkit, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Checkit and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Checkit. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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United Kingdom

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This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Checkit and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Checkit. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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