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Research: TMT
Riber has announced that FY20 revenues will total €30.2m, which is in line with its guidance of around €30m and our estimates. The year-end order book is around half the prior year level, reflecting delays in customers signing contracts and difficulties obtaining export licences. We therefore leave our FY20 estimates broadly unchanged but cut our FY21 revenue estimate by 9% and EPS estimate by 56%.
Written by
Riber |
FY20 revenues in line with management guidance |
FY20 revenue results |
Tech hardware & equipment |
2 February 2021 |
Share price performance
Business description
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Analyst
Riber is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Riber has announced that FY20 revenues will total €30.2m, which is in line with its guidance of around €30m and our estimates. The year-end order book is around half the prior year level, reflecting delays in customers signing contracts and difficulties obtaining export licences. We therefore leave our FY20 estimates broadly unchanged but cut our FY21 revenue estimate by 9% and EPS estimate by 56%.
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/18 |
31.3 |
2.0 |
0.07 |
0.05 |
21.0 |
3.4 |
12/19 |
33.5 |
1.8 |
0.06 |
0.03 |
24.5 |
2.0 |
12/20e |
30.2 |
0.0 |
0.00 |
0.03 |
N/A |
2.0 |
12/21e |
29.1 |
0.9 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
49.4 |
2.0 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
FY20 sales affected by export licence issues
FY20 revenues were €3.2m lower year-on-year at €30.2m. Ten MBE systems were shipped compared with 12 in FY19, though the FY19 total included two MBE systems where deliveries had slipped into Q119. As expected, evaporator sales were minimal (€0.3m), compared with €1.0m in FY19, as the pause in investment in the OLED screen industry continued. Sales of services and accessories jumped by €2.3m to €11.7m, reflecting management’s stated strategy of growing this activity. Total revenues would have been over €31m had the French government not refused export licences for R&D systems and certain types of spares to China.
Export issues also affecting order book
At €14.4m, the FY20 year-end order book was €14.3m lower than a year previously. Management attributes this to the government’s refusal to grant export licences worth around €13m. In addition, while enquiry levels have been high, customers have been slow to sign contracts given the economic uncertainty. The FY20 year-end order book contained only two MBE systems, both for R&D activity. One was from a European customer for research into opto-electronics components, probably LiDAR, for the automotive industry, the other an Asian customer. In January Riber received an order from an Asian customer for use in research including telecom lasers for fibre optical networks.
Valuation: Trading at a discount to peers
Riber is trading at a discount to its peers on both prospective EV/sales and EV/EBITDA multiples. While some discount for its relatively small size and low free float is justified, the size of the discount (16.6x for Riber vs 23.4x for our year 1 EV/EBITDA sample mean) is, in our opinion, unwarranted. This gives ample scope for share price appreciation provided investors gain confidence that orders for MBE systems will pick up despite export issues and the economic uncertainty caused by the coronavirus pandemic and that management will be able to push Riber’s margins closer to those of its peers.
Estimate revisions
Riber’s manufacturing facility has remained operational throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Because Riber’s MBE systems are used in research on new materials and for the production of electronic and optoelectronic devices used in communications networks, global demand for which is strong, enquiry levels from potential and existing customers in Europe and Asia remain high. Citing the current sales pipeline, management is confident that order intake will pick up later in FY21, though this will result in revenues being heavily weighted towards the second half.
Exhibit 1: Changes to estimates
€m |
FY19 |
FY20e |
FY21e |
||||
Actual |
Old |
New |
Change |
Old |
New |
Change |
|
Production MBE systems (units) |
7 |
4 |
4 |
0.0% |
5 |
3 |
-40.0% |
R&D MBE systems (units) |
5 |
6 |
6 |
0.0% |
4 |
6 |
50.0% |
System revenues |
23.0 |
16.8 |
18.2 |
8.5% |
16.6 |
15.3 |
-7.6% |
Evaporator revenues |
1.0 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
50.0% |
1.6 |
0.3 |
-80.6% |
Service revenues |
9.4 |
12.6 |
11.7 |
-7.1% |
14.0 |
13.5 |
-3.6% |
Total revenues |
33.5 |
29.6 |
30.2 |
2.1% |
32.1 |
29.1 |
-9.4% |
PBT |
1.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0% |
2.0 |
0.9 |
-56.4% |
EPS (€) |
0.06 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.0% |
0.07 |
0.03 |
-56.4% |
DPS (€) |
0.03 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
0.0% |
0.05 |
0.03 |
-40.0% |
Net cash at year end |
5.3 |
4.0 |
0.0 |
N/A |
6.4 |
1.1 |
-82.7% |
Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research
We have made very minor changes to our FY20 estimates, bringing the revenues in line with the recent announcement.
We have made the following changes to our FY21 estimates:
■
We change the mix of production and R&D MBE systems delivered in favour of lower-value R&D systems.
■
While management has maintained contact with its customers, giving potential for €1.6m of evaporator revenues related to the photo-voltaic industry, we now treat this as upside to our forecasts. Instead, we model FY21 evaporator sales at FY20 levels.
■
We model a small reduction in service revenues as the year-on-year growth is from a lower base.
■
The change in product mix to a substantially higher proportion of service and spares revenues raises the gross margin.
■
We reduce our DPS estimate so that it is covered by earnings and to conserve cash given that our revised estimates show significantly less net cash at the end of FY21 than modelled previously.
■
We model a substantial increase in working capital during FY20 to reflect a lower order-book at the end of FY20, and hence lower levels of pre-payments, as well as higher levels of inventory.
■
We have not cut levels of investment in either capital equipment or capitalised R&D because the French government has provided a €6m loan to support these activities.
Valuation
We base our valuation on a peer multiples approach. We restrict our sample to the two listed companies that are involved in developing equipment for manufacturing compound semiconductors because they benefit from similar growth trends to Riber, rather than the wider semiconductor industry.
Riber continues to trade at a discount to both peers with respect to prospective EV/sales and year 2 EV/EBITDA multiples. While some discount for relatively small capitalisation, lower margins and low free float is justified, the size of the discount (eg year 1 EV/EBITDA is 16.6x for Riber vs 23.4x for the mean of our sample) is, in our opinion, unwarranted. This gives ample scope for share price appreciation provided investors gain confidence that orders for MBE systems will pick up despite export issues and the economic uncertainty caused by the coronavirus pandemic and that management is able to address the late deliveries and warranty issues that affected FY18 and FY19 reported profits and push Riber’s margins closer to those of its peers.
Exhibit 2: Compound semiconductor manufacturing equipment peer multiples
Name |
Market cap (€m) |
EV/sales 1FY (x) |
EV/sales 2FY (x) |
EV/EBITDA 1FY (x) |
EV/EBITDA 2FY (x) |
P/E |
P/E |
Gross margin 2FY (%) |
EBITDA margin 2FY (%) |
Aixtron |
1,752 |
5.5 |
4.8 |
34.2 |
24.3 |
59.4 |
41.5 |
41.7 |
19.9 |
Veeco |
760 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
12.6 |
10.4 |
21.1 |
16.8 |
43.6 |
17.8 |
Mean |
3.8 |
3.3 |
23.4 |
17.4 |
40.2 |
29.1 |
|||
Riber |
31 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
16.6 |
10.8 |
N/A |
49.4 |
35.2 |
8.1 |
Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Priced at 1 February 2021
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
€m |
2018 |
2019 |
2020e |
2021e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
31.3 |
33.5 |
30.2 |
29.1 |
Cost of Sales |
(19.6) |
(23.2) |
(21.1) |
(18.9) |
||
Gross Profit |
11.7 |
10.3 |
9.2 |
10.2 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
3.3 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
2.4 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
|
2.2 |
1.8 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
(2.2) |
(0.9) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Share-based payments |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Reported operating profit |
0.0 |
0.9 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
||
Net Interest |
(0.2) |
0.0 |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
2.0 |
1.8 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(0.2) |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
Reported tax |
0.5 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
(0.2) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
1.4 |
1.3 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
0.3 |
1.1 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
20.8 |
20.8 |
20.8 |
20.8 |
||
EPS - basic normalised (€) |
|
|
0.07 |
0.06 |
0.00 |
0.03 |
Dividend (€) |
0.05 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
2.5 |
7.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
37.5 |
30.8 |
30.3 |
35.2 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
10.4 |
7.6 |
5.1 |
8.1 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
7.1 |
5.4 |
0.1 |
3.0 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
9.5 |
11.4 |
11.1 |
10.8 |
Intangible Assets |
1.9 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
||
Tangible Assets |
4.8 |
5.1 |
4.8 |
4.5 |
||
Investments & other |
2.8 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
28.2 |
26.8 |
28.6 |
28.6 |
Stocks |
15.3 |
11.5 |
12.4 |
11.6 |
||
Debtors |
8.8 |
8.0 |
8.3 |
8.0 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
3.0 |
5.9 |
6.6 |
7.8 |
||
Other |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(17.3) |
(17.3) |
(13.4) |
(13.0) |
Creditors |
(11.4) |
(13.0) |
(9.1) |
(8.8) |
||
Tax and social security |
0.0 |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(0.4) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
||
Other |
(5.4) |
(4.1) |
(4.1) |
(4.1) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(1.3) |
(1.7) |
(7.7) |
(7.7) |
Long term borrowings |
0.0 |
(0.4) |
(6.4) |
(6.4) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(1.3) |
(1.3) |
(1.3) |
(1.3) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
19.2 |
19.2 |
18.7 |
18.7 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
4.2 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
2.4 |
||
Working capital |
(5.3) |
4.2 |
(5.1) |
0.8 |
||
Exceptional & other |
(1.7) |
(0.3) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Tax |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.2) |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
(2.8) |
6.4 |
(3.5) |
3.0 |
Capex |
(0.8) |
(1.6) |
(1.2) |
(1.2) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0.0 |
(0.2) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net interest |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Equity financing |
(0.5) |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
(0.6) |
(0.6) |
||
Other |
0.0 |
(0.4) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(5.2) |
3.3 |
(5.4) |
1.2 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(7.4) |
(2.5) |
(5.3) |
0.0 |
FX |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
0.2 |
(0.4) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(2.5) |
(5.3) |
0.0 |
(1.1) |
Source: Riber, Edison Investment Research
|
|
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