Last close As at 05/08/2026
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EUR21m
Research: TMT
CLIQ’s Q3 results show the continuing revenue impact of the shift in credit card providers’ policies on transaction cancellations. Revenues in the quarter were down 35% y-o-y and 21% q-o-q. Given the external factors, management is firmly focused on driving profitability and free cash flow under its ‘Fit for Future’ initiative, which has enabled a small uplift in adjusted EBITDA over the previous quarter. Management’s guidance for full year revenues is unchanged at €260–280m, increasing to €325m for FY25, which would require momentum to build behind new strategic initiatives. CLIQ’s cash positive balance sheet remains sufficiently strong to support this. Our forecasts are broadly unchanged.
CLIQ Digital |
Focus remains on profitability and cash |
Q3 results |
Media |
13 November 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
CLIQ Digital is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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CLIQ’s Q3 results show the continuing revenue impact of the shift in credit card providers’ policies on transaction cancellations. Revenues in the quarter were down 35% y-o-y and 21% q-o-q. Given the external factors, management is firmly focused on driving profitability and free cash flow under its ‘Fit for Future’ initiative, which has enabled a small uplift in adjusted EBITDA over the previous quarter. Management’s guidance for full year revenues is unchanged at €260–280m, increasing to €325m for FY25, which would require momentum to build behind new strategic initiatives. CLIQ’s cash positive balance sheet remains sufficiently strong to support this. Our forecasts are broadly unchanged.
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
EBITDA* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/22 |
276.1 |
43.5 |
4.47 |
1.79 |
1.1 |
37.1 |
12/23 |
326.4 |
50.3 |
4.91 |
0.00 |
1.0 |
N/A |
12/24e |
261.5 |
11.1 |
0.61 |
0.04 |
7.9 |
0.8 |
12/25e |
282.5 |
19.8 |
1.61 |
0.04 |
3.0 |
0.8 |
Note: *EBITDA and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Lowered cost per customer acquisition
CLIQ’s expected lifetime value per customer has been negatively affected by credit card providers making it far easier to cancel transactions, increasing churn. Across the group, the lifetime value of the customer base decreased to €97m at end-September, from €128m the previous quarter-end, reflecting the sharp drop in paying customers. In response, CLIQ has acted to reduce its customer acquisition costs substantially to protect margins and cash, with spend down 60% on the prior quarter. The EBITDA margin for Q3 before the additional costs of the transformation was 10.5%, from 8.2% in Q224. Those additional costs amounted to €3m in the quarter, after a spend of €2.6m in Q224. Our revenue and EBITDA forecasts are unchanged, with a small uplift at the earnings level from higher assumed interest.
Initiatives to return to growth
Management is unsurprisingly circumspect on the timing of the return to a growth track but has maintained its guidance for this year and the next. The wider range of customer acquisition channels will undoubtedly help, as will the better use of data for retargeting and monetisation. Additional digital products are also in the pipeline, as are new sales channels and further monetisation opportunities. Reaching the targets could also be supported by the initiative to launch an advertising-funded video on demand channel in North America, due shortly.
Valuation: Reflecting the difficult trading backdrop
CLIQ’s share price is down 76% year-to-date, reflecting guidance downgrades in May and July. Priced at parity with peers across EV/sales multiples, CLIQ’s implied share price comes to €77, from €70 in August, after strong performances from some peers. However, we would apply a size and current trading discount to this relative to peers. Our DCF-based valuation (WACC: 10%, terminal growth rate: 2%) is at the lower level of c €26 (unchanged from our August analysis).
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
€m |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024e |
2025e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
150.0 |
276.1 |
326.4 |
261.5 |
282.5 |
Cost of Sales |
(98.8) |
(201.3) |
(241.7) |
(212.5) |
(219.9) |
||
Gross Profit |
51.2 |
74.8 |
84.6 |
49.0 |
62.6 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
27.2 |
43.5 |
50.3 |
11.1 |
19.8 |
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
|
|
26.3 |
42.1 |
45.9 |
6.0 |
14.7 |
Reported operating profit |
26.3 |
42.1 |
45.9 |
6.0 |
14.7 |
||
Net Interest |
(0.9) |
(1.2) |
(0.9) |
(0.4) |
(0.9) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
25.3 |
40.9 |
45.0 |
5.7 |
13.9 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
25.3 |
40.9 |
45.0 |
5.7 |
13.9 |
Reported tax |
(7.1) |
(11.9) |
(13.2) |
(1.8) |
(4.3) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
18.2 |
29.0 |
32.0 |
3.9 |
9.5 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
18.2 |
29.0 |
31.8 |
3.9 |
9.5 |
||
Minority interests |
0.4 |
(0.1) |
(0.0) |
0.1 |
0.0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
17.8 |
29.1 |
32.0 |
3.8 |
9.5 |
||
Net income (reported) |
17.8 |
29.0 |
31.8 |
3.8 |
9.5 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
6.5 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
6.2 |
5.9 |
||
EPS - normalised (€) |
|
|
2.74 |
4.47 |
4.91 |
0.61 |
1.61 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
271.36 |
445.38 |
483.96 |
60.36 |
158.26 |
Dividend (€) |
1.10 |
1.79 |
0.00 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
40.2 |
84.1 |
18.2 |
(19.9) |
8.0 |
||
Gross margin (%) |
34.1 |
27.1 |
25.9 |
18.7 |
22.2 |
||
EBITDA margin (%) |
18.1 |
15.8 |
15.4 |
4.2 |
7.0 |
||
Normalised operating margin (%) |
17.5 |
15.2 |
14.1 |
2.3 |
5.2 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
59.4 |
65.1 |
69.9 |
66.2 |
68.6 |
Intangible Assets |
2.6 |
8.4 |
12.1 |
9.8 |
12.5 |
||
Tangible Assets |
3.8 |
5.0 |
4.0 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
||
Goodwill & other |
53.0 |
51.7 |
53.8 |
53.4 |
53.6 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
36.9 |
70.0 |
84.8 |
56.6 |
45.5 |
Receivables |
12.5 |
13.6 |
20.5 |
20.8 |
27.1 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
7.3 |
16.8 |
15.7 |
8.7 |
11.2 |
||
Other |
17.1 |
39.6 |
48.5 |
27.1 |
7.1 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(27.3) |
(31.2) |
(33.9) |
(29.6) |
(29.3) |
Creditors |
(7.9) |
(9.5) |
(13.1) |
(9.2) |
(9.5) |
||
Tax |
(1.2) |
(2.6) |
(6.9) |
(6.9) |
(6.9) |
||
Borrowings |
(5.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Provisions |
(0.4) |
(0.4) |
(0.4) |
(0.4) |
(0.4) |
||
Other |
(12.8) |
(18.7) |
(13.5) |
(13.1) |
(12.6) |
||
Long-term liabilities |
|
|
(9.4) |
(22.6) |
(17.7) |
(12.9) |
(12.8) |
Long-term borrowings |
0.0 |
(6.6) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other long-term liabilities |
(9.4) |
(16.0) |
(17.7) |
(12.9) |
(12.8) |
||
Net assets |
|
|
59.6 |
81.3 |
103.1 |
80.4 |
71.9 |
Minority interests |
0.0 |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
||
Shareholders’ equity |
|
|
59.5 |
81.4 |
103.2 |
80.5 |
72.0 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
26.8 |
44.9 |
53.2 |
10.7 |
18.9 |
||
Working capital |
(1.2) |
(18.1) |
(19.9) |
(4.2) |
(6.0) |
||
Exceptional & other |
1.3 |
0.4 |
2.4 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
||
Tax & interest |
(6.1) |
(3.4) |
(5.3) |
(2.4) |
(5.2) |
||
Operating cash flow |
|
|
20.8 |
23.8 |
30.4 |
4.8 |
8.6 |
Capex |
(3.3) |
(9.6) |
(10.7) |
(5.7) |
(5.2) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(10.3) |
1.5 |
(0.2) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Equity financing |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(5.0) |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
(3.3) |
(7.2) |
(11.6) |
(0.3) |
(0.2) |
||
Other |
(2.5) |
(0.9) |
(2.0) |
(0.8) |
(0.7) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
1.4 |
7.7 |
5.8 |
(7.0) |
2.5 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(0.9) |
(2.3) |
(9.9) |
(15.7) |
(8.7) |
FX |
0.0 |
(0.1) |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(2.3) |
(9.9) |
(15.7) |
(8.7) |
(11.2) |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
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