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EMIS Group
EMIS Group |
Good profitability despite market uncertainty |
H116 results |
Software & comp services |
15 September 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
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EMIS’s H116 results showed improved profitability despite limited revenue growth. Recent restructuring has reduced the cost base across the group and should provide a boost to profitability from H2. In our view, the NHS’s digital agenda continues to support long-term growth of the business. Evidence of a turnaround of the Secondary & Specialist Care business is the key to share price upside in the shorter term.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
EBITDA |
EPS* |
Net (debt) cash |
P/E |
Yield |
12/14 |
137.6 |
47.6 |
42.8 |
(11.8) |
23.2 |
1.9 |
12/15 |
155.9 |
52.0 |
46.0 |
(9.1) |
21.6 |
2.1 |
12/16e |
162.5 |
54.1 |
48.6 |
(0.1) |
20.5 |
2.4 |
12/17e |
172.2 |
57.2 |
51.9 |
18.8 |
19.2 |
2.5 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items and share-based payments.
H116: improved profitability despite flat revenues
In H116 EMIS generated profit growth (adjusted operating profit +4.6% y-o-y, margin +75bp to 22.5%) despite minimal organic revenue growth. Primary & Community Care and Community Pharmacy both performed well, with stable to growing market share across the various business lines and improved profitability year-on-year. Secondary & Specialist Care (SSC) saw sluggish order intake in the acute business and weaker margins in the screening business due to higher than expected contract set-up costs. Restructuring that started in SSC widened to encompass the group and should contribute to profitability in H216.
Small changes to estimates
Management’s profit expectations for FY16 are unchanged. We have revised our forecasts to take account of H116 performance – despite reducing our revenue forecasts by 2.6% in FY16 and FY17, our normalised EPS forecasts only reduce by 0.7% in FY16e and 0.6% in FY17e as the recent restructuring has reduced the cost base. We forecast the company to be close to net cash neutral by year-end, moving to net cash of £18.8m by the end of FY17. In our view, the government’s vision for a paperless NHS supports long-term growth of the business, although the timing of the availability of funds for change projects is difficult to predict.
Valuation: Secondary & Specialist Care key
The stock is trading at a small discount to peers on a P/E basis, supported by a dividend yield of c 2%. In our view, confirmation of a return to revenue growth in SSC combined with improving profitability would support the stock trading at a small premium to peers. Other areas that could provide upside to our earnings forecasts include more integrated healthcare contract wins and beating market share targets in CCMH from winning more of the North New and Refresh contracts. Longer term, the roll-out to the newly signed Lloyds pharmacies should provide a boost to profitability.
Review of H116 results
Exhibit 1: Half-year results
£'000 |
H115 |
H116 |
y-o-y (%) |
Revenues |
77,806 |
78,670 |
1.1 |
Gross margin (%) |
91.1 |
91.2 |
0.1 |
EBITDA |
24,813 |
24,840 |
0.1 |
EBITDA margin (%) |
31.9 |
31.6 |
-0.3 |
Normalised* EBIT |
17,379 |
17,923 |
3.1 |
EMIS adjusted** EBIT |
16,917 |
17,692 |
4.6 |
Reported EBIT |
13,848 |
12,141 |
(12.3) |
Normalised EBIT margin (%) |
22.3 |
22.8 |
0.4 |
EMIS adjusted EBIT margin (%) |
21.7 |
22.5 |
0.7 |
Reported EBIT margin (%) |
17.8 |
15.4 |
-2.4 |
Net interest income |
(230) |
(231) |
0.4 |
Normalised PBT |
17,083 |
17,963 |
5.2 |
PBT |
13,552 |
12,181 |
-10.1 |
Tax |
(2,759) |
(2,386) |
-13.5 |
Normalised net income |
13,945 |
15,133 |
8.5 |
Net income |
10,414 |
9,351 |
-10.2 |
Normalised dil. EPS (p) |
22.2 |
24.0 |
8.2 |
EMIS adjusted dil. EPS (p) |
20.5 |
22.1 |
7.8 |
Reported basic EPS (p) |
16.6 |
14.9 |
-10.3 |
Net cash |
1.3 |
0.7 |
-46.2 |
Source: EMIS, Edison Investment Research *Normalised excludes exceptionals, share-based payments and amortisation of acquired intangibles. **EMIS adjusted – as for normalised, also deducts capitalised R&D costs and adds back amortisation of development costs.
Exhibit 2: Divisional revenue and profits
H115 |
H116 |
y-o-y (%) |
|
Revenues |
|||
Primary & Community Care (PCC) |
46,895 |
48,983 |
4.5 |
Community Pharmacy (CP) |
9,778 |
10,348 |
5.8 |
Secondary & Specialist Care (SSC) |
21,133 |
19,339 |
-8.5 |
EMIS adjusted operating profit |
|
|
|
Primary & Community Care |
13,408 |
14,745 |
10.0 |
Community Pharmacy |
1,962 |
2,214 |
12.8 |
Secondary & Specialist Care |
2,263 |
1,469 |
-35.1 |
Reported operating profit |
|
|
|
Primary & Community Care |
12,028 |
12,543 |
4.3 |
Community Pharmacy |
2,134 |
2,714 |
27.2 |
Secondary & Specialist Care |
402 |
-2,380 |
N/A |
Source: EMIS
EMIS generated y-o-y growth of 1.1% in H116; once the Pinbellcom acquisition is excluded revenues were essentially flat y-o-y. We note that PCC revenues in H116 included £0.7m generated from the Pinbellcom acquisition as well as £0.7m in revenues from ePEX acute mental health software that was transferred in from Secondary Care in H116. Both PCC and CP showed steady growth in revenues and profitability. SSC saw a revenue decline of 4% once the ePEX revenue reclassification is taken into account, which resulted in a 35% decline in adjusted operating profit.
The company had previously noted that it was undertaking restructuring within the Secondary Care business; during the course of H116 this was expanded to other parts of the group, resulting in a one-off charge of £2.2m. The company expects the benefits of this to start to come through in H216. In H116, headcount reduced by 39 despite adding 79 staff in the India development centre.
EMIS announced a 10% increase in the interim dividend to 11.7p; matching this for the final dividend will give a full year dividend payout of 23.4p (+10% y-o-y).
Business update
Primary & Community Care (PCC)
EMIS maintained its GP market share at 55%, with 45% of CCGs in England now using 100% EMIS for primary care.
In Northern Ireland, the EMIS Web roll-out is scheduled to start in Q416 - once three test sites have been signed off, EMIS can accelerate the implementation and should finish the roll-out in 2017. The procurement process is underway for GPs in Scotland, who currently use EMIS PCS (Scotland already uses EMIS Web for CCMH). In Wales, renewals are being discussed (the existing framework expires 2019/2020).
CCMH1 market share increased from 12% at the end of FY15 to 14% at the end of H116. The company hopes to beat its year-end target of 15%. The company noted that it is seeing ongoing sluggishness in larger procurements. Since we last wrote in April, EMIS has signed contracts for child health with Barts Health, East Cheshire and Croydon and community health with Central London Community Healthcare NHS Trust, Croydon and Jersey Hospice. Contracts signed in H116 and H216 to date are worth more than £3.5m and are all for minimum terms of five years. The business sees a strong and growing pipeline of opportunities. Of the 45 CCGs using only EMIS for primary care, 23 also only use EMIS for CCMH.
CCMH: Child, Community & Mental Health
The company’s online resource to help patients manage their own health changed its domain from patient.co.uk to patient.info. This slowed traffic initially but is now higher than previous levels, with significant growth in international visitors. EMIS earns revenue from both advertising and transactional services (eg NHS pays for setting up appointments online). A new digital head has been recruited to drive this business forward.
The recent Pinbellcom acquisition has been integrated into EMIS’ non-clinical IT solutions and services business, Egton, and has been rebranded as Egton Digital.
Community Pharmacy (CP)
CP maintained its 36% share of the combined supermarket and independent pharmacy market. The business started pre-implementation activity for the previously announced Lloyds Pharmacy/AAH Pharmaceuticals contract – when fully rolled out this should take CP’s market share to 50%. CP has also won a contract to supply 100 sites that previously used Cegedim or PSL software, with implementation scheduled for this year.
The next generation ProScript Connect software has been accredited in Wales and Scotland, where live pilots started in Q216. The business expects to receive accreditation for England by the end of this year. roll-out starting in H2.
Nine pharmacies are currently piloting EMIS Web for Community Pharmacy, with full launch expected in 2017.
Secondary & Specialist Care (SSC)
The operational improvements in Secondary Care are largely complete, with cost benefits expected to come through in H2. The business continues to see slower rates of business for larger NHS procurements, but saw a good flow of small and mid-sized contracts, including a contract to supply a patient administration system to Northampton.
EMIS Health Specialist is involved in the procurement for a single English solution for retinopathy screening software, which has the potential to takes its share from the current 79% level to 100%.
EMIS Care won three diabetic eye screening contracts in H116, worth at least £10m in total. However, the business has found that implementation costs for contracts won from the NHS have been higher than expected, which partly contributed to SSC’s lower margins in H116. It has changed its approach to the bidding process to ensure this does not happen on future contracts. Profitability should improve over the life of the existing contracts.
Outlook and changes to forecasts
Management sees good order books and pipelines across every segment. The company expects to generate revenues for FY16 in the range £160-165m, down from the guidance given in March for revenues in the upper £160m range, but with adjusted operating profit expectations broadly unchanged. Net cash is expected to be close to zero at year-end.
We have revised our forecasts as follows:
■
Revenues: The majority of the reduction in our revenue forecast is due to lower revenues in SSC, with a small reduction in PCC, in both cases based on H116 performance.
■
Adjusted operating profit: The reduction in revenues has been partially offset by the reduction in capitalised development costs (see below). Restructuring undertaken in H116 should also reduce the cost base in H216. Overall, the result is a small decrease in our forecast adjusted operating profit in both years.
■
Exceptional items: £2.2m in restructuring costs in H116 partially offset by the £1.5m gain on sale of the stake in Pharmacy2U in H216.
■
Capex: We have reduced our tangible fixed asset capex forecast from £10m to £6m in FY16 and from £8m to £7m in FY17 reflecting lower hosting asset purchases. We have reduced capitalised development costs from £7.1m to £6.0m in FY16 and from £7.4m to £6.5m in FY17.
■
We have factored in the £1.5m proceeds from the sale of the stake in Pharmacy2U.
Exhibit 3: Changes to forecasts
£'000s |
FY16e |
FY16e |
Change |
y-o-y |
FY17e |
FY17e |
Change |
y-o-y |
Old |
New |
(%) |
(%) |
Old |
New |
(%) |
(%) |
|
Revenues |
166,805 |
162,513 |
-2.6 |
4.2 |
176,856 |
172,178 |
-2.6 |
5.9 |
Normalised operating profit |
39,971 |
39,660 |
-0.8 |
6.8 |
42,563 |
42,196 |
-0.9 |
6.4 |
Adjusted operating profit |
39,249 |
38,954 |
-0.8 |
6.6 |
42,344 |
41,495 |
-2.0 |
6.5 |
Reported operating profit |
32,314 |
31,311 |
-3.1 |
173.9 |
34,906 |
34,499 |
-1.2 |
10.2 |
Normalised EPS - p |
48.9 |
48.6 |
-0.7 |
5.6 |
52.2 |
51.9 |
-0.6 |
6.9 |
Adjusted EPS - p |
47.8 |
47.4 |
-0.7 |
5.2 |
51.9 |
50.8 |
-2.1 |
7.1 |
Reported EPS - p |
39.4 |
38.2 |
-3.1 |
426.9 |
42.7 |
42.3 |
-0.9 |
11.0 |
Net cash/(debt) |
2,244 |
(55) |
-102.4 |
-99.4 |
22,995 |
18,815 |
-18.2 |
N/A |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Valuation
EMIS is trading on a premium to its peer group on EV/Sales, EV/EBIT and EV/EBITDA multiples but a discount on a P/E basis. In our view, this reflects EMIS’ superior profitability. The stock also offers a higher dividend yield than most of its peer group. We believe that evidence of a re-acceleration in revenue growth (for example from a reinvigorated secondary care business) and that the recent restructuring is improving profitability should enable the company to trade at a small premium to peers on a P/E basis.
Exhibit 4: Peer group valuation metrics
(x) |
|
EV/Sales |
P/E |
EV/EBIT |
EV/EBITDA |
||||||||
y/e |
15 |
16e |
17e |
15 |
16e |
17e |
15 |
16e |
17e |
15 |
16e |
17e |
|
EMIS |
31-Dec |
4.1 |
3.9 |
3.7 |
21.5 |
20.4 |
19.1 |
17.2 |
16.1 |
15.1 |
12.3 |
11.8 |
11.2 |
EMIS (cash R&D) |
|
21.9 |
20.9 |
19.5 |
17.5 |
16.4 |
15.4 |
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AllScripts |
31-Dec |
2.1 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
26.7 |
21.2 |
17.8 |
18.8 |
14.5 |
12.6 |
11.8 |
9.8 |
8.5 |
Cegedim |
31-Dec |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
15.7 |
19.8 |
10.2 |
12.5 |
11.7 |
10.6 |
6.4 |
6.0 |
6.5 |
Cerner |
31-Dec |
4.8 |
4.3 |
3.9 |
29.5 |
26.4 |
23.1 |
19.6 |
17.8 |
15.4 |
14.6 |
13.0 |
11.4 |
Craneware |
30-Jun |
8.2 |
7.2 |
6.4 |
42.6 |
38.9 |
35.1 |
18.4 |
16.6 |
15.4 |
17.2 |
15.2 |
13.8 |
Servelec |
31-Dec |
3.0 |
2.9 |
2.6 |
13.8 |
13.2 |
10.8 |
11.6 |
10.2 |
8.1 |
11.0 |
9.4 |
7.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
Average |
|
3.8 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
25.6 |
23.9 |
19.4 |
16.2 |
14.1 |
12.4 |
12.2 |
10.7 |
9.5 |
Source: Bloomberg (as at 12 September), Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 5: Peer group financial metrics
(%) |
|
EBIT margin |
EBITDA margin |
Rev growth |
Div yield |
||||||||
y/e |
15 |
16e |
17e |
15 |
16e |
17e |
15 |
16e |
17e |
15 |
16e |
17e |
|
EMIS |
31-Dec |
23.8 |
24.4 |
24.5 |
33.3 |
33.3 |
33.2 |
13.3 |
4.2 |
5.9 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
EMIS (cash R&D) |
|
23.4 |
24.0 |
24.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
AllScripts |
31-Dec |
10.9 |
12.4 |
13.0 |
17.4 |
18.4 |
19.2 |
-0.3 |
14.0 |
10.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Cegedim |
31-Dec |
9.7 |
10.1 |
10.8 |
19.0 |
19.7 |
17.7 |
-53.2 |
2.6 |
3.3 |
0.0 |
2.5 |
3.3 |
Cerner |
31-Dec |
24.3 |
24.1 |
25.3 |
32.7 |
32.9 |
34.1 |
30.0 |
11.3 |
10.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Craneware |
30-Jun |
29.8 |
28.8 |
27.8 |
31.8 |
31.4 |
31.2 |
11.2 |
14.9 |
11.3 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
Servelec |
31-Dec |
25.6 |
28.5 |
32.0 |
27.1 |
31.0 |
34.3 |
21.9 |
2.4 |
11.7 |
1.8 |
2.7 |
2.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
Average |
|
20.1 |
20.8 |
21.8 |
25.6 |
26.7 |
27.3 |
1.9 |
9.0 |
9.4 |
0.6 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
Source: Bloomberg (as at 12 September), Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 6: Financial summary
£'000s |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
||
Year end 31 December |
||||||||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
86,333 |
105,542 |
137,639 |
155,898 |
162,513 |
172,178 |
Cost of Sales |
(10,891) |
(11,780) |
(12,782) |
(12,955) |
(15,114) |
(16,977) |
||
Gross Profit |
75,442 |
93,762 |
124,857 |
142,943 |
147,400 |
155,201 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
33,178 |
38,885 |
47,645 |
51,964 |
54,057 |
57,193 |
Operating Profit (before amort. of acq. intang, SBP and except.) |
27,619 |
30,482 |
34,787 |
37,123 |
39,660 |
42,196 |
||
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(2,983) |
(4,198) |
(6,269) |
(6,509) |
(6,697) |
(6,697) |
||
Exceptionals |
(435) |
(1,144) |
873 |
(18,500) |
(652) |
0 |
||
Share-based payments |
(90) |
(195) |
(270) |
(684) |
(1,000) |
(1,000) |
||
Operating Profit |
24,111 |
24,945 |
29,121 |
11,430 |
31,311 |
34,499 |
||
Net Interest |
(76) |
(242) |
(543) |
(449) |
(400) |
(150) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
27,567 |
30,172 |
34,206 |
36,625 |
39,610 |
42,396 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
24,059 |
24,635 |
28,540 |
10,932 |
31,261 |
34,699 |
Tax |
(4,625) |
(4,706) |
(5,719) |
(5,558) |
(6,408) |
(7,113) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
23,191 |
25,179 |
27,617 |
29,801 |
31,490 |
33,705 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS3) |
19,434 |
19,929 |
22,821 |
5,374 |
24,852 |
27,586 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
58.2 |
59.4 |
62.8 |
62.7 |
62.8 |
62.8 |
||
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
39.0 |
41.4 |
42.8 |
46.0 |
48.6 |
51.9 |
EPS - FRS 3 (p) |
|
|
32.5 |
32.6 |
35.3 |
7.2 |
38.2 |
42.3 |
Dividend (p) |
14.2 |
16.0 |
18.4 |
21.2 |
23.4 |
24.4 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
87.4% |
88.8% |
90.7% |
91.7% |
90.7% |
90.1% |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
38.4% |
36.8% |
34.6% |
33.3% |
33.3% |
33.2% |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
32.0% |
28.9% |
25.3% |
23.8% |
24.4% |
24.5% |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
77,673 |
153,838 |
166,415 |
143,546 |
134,452 |
126,258 |
Intangible Assets |
52,789 |
126,468 |
139,397 |
121,383 |
113,489 |
105,595 |
||
Tangible Assets |
22,144 |
24,610 |
24,313 |
22,032 |
20,832 |
20,532 |
||
Other fixed assets |
2,740 |
2,760 |
2,705 |
131 |
131 |
131 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
27,538 |
27,046 |
37,221 |
39,800 |
47,466 |
68,212 |
Stocks |
1,243 |
1,431 |
1,550 |
1,206 |
1,206 |
1,206 |
||
Debtors |
15,188 |
21,448 |
28,732 |
33,893 |
36,305 |
39,181 |
||
Cash |
11,107 |
4,167 |
6,939 |
4,701 |
9,955 |
27,825 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(30,598) |
(54,530) |
(67,665) |
(63,819) |
(53,819) |
(55,244) |
Creditors |
(30,202) |
(46,628) |
(54,763) |
(51,960) |
(43,960) |
(46,385) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(396) |
(7,902) |
(12,902) |
(11,859) |
(9,859) |
(8,859) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(10,548) |
(22,231) |
(21,063) |
(12,481) |
(10,681) |
(10,681) |
Long term borrowings |
(3,000) |
(9,756) |
(5,854) |
(1,951) |
(151) |
(151) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(7,548) |
(12,475) |
(15,209) |
(10,530) |
(10,530) |
(10,530) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
64,065 |
104,123 |
114,908 |
107,046 |
117,418 |
128,545 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
32,732 |
38,725 |
44,856 |
42,711 |
44,493 |
56,742 |
Net Interest |
(60) |
(580) |
(445) |
(422) |
(300) |
(50) |
||
Tax |
(4,566) |
(5,073) |
(5,247) |
(6,896) |
(8,120) |
(8,691) |
||
Capex |
(18,342) |
(15,025) |
(15,161) |
(14,058) |
(12,000) |
(13,500) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(512) |
(57,315) |
(9,959) |
(4,587) |
(1,500) |
0 |
||
Financing |
(1,816) |
27,212 |
(1,578) |
492 |
600 |
(500) |
||
Dividends |
(7,735) |
(9,146) |
(10,792) |
(14,532) |
(14,118) |
(15,131) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(299) |
(21,202) |
1,674 |
2,708 |
9,054 |
18,869 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(8,026) |
(7,711) |
13,491 |
11,817 |
9,109 |
55 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(16) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(7,711) |
13,491 |
11,817 |
9,109 |
55 |
(18,815) |
Source: EMIS, Edison Investment Research
|
|