Brady is selling its US-based recycling business for an initial c £3.3m with c £1m balance in 18 months. The disposal will simplify the group, boost cash resources towards £8m and enable management to focus on its core physical trading commodity and energy businesses. Additionally, the company has said that FY17 revenues will be c £2m lower than consensus at £27m due to a faster-than-anticipated switch to the recurring revenue model and two projects slipping into H118. We have cut our FY18 forecasts for the disposal and the lower trading guidance. Nevertheless, if management can successfully transition the business to the cloud, there is a lot to go for as E/CTRM is an attractive growth industry and Brady has a very high quality customer base.
Written by
Brady |
Disposal simplifies the group structure |
Trading update |
Software & comp services |
2 February 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Brady is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Brady is selling its US-based recycling business for an initial c £3.3m with c £1m balance in 18 months. The disposal will simplify the group, boost cash resources towards £8m and enable management to focus on its core physical trading commodity and energy businesses. Additionally, the company has said that FY17 revenues will be c £2m lower than consensus at £27m due to a faster-than-anticipated switch to the recurring revenue model and two projects slipping into H118. We have cut our FY18 forecasts for the disposal and the lower trading guidance. Nevertheless, if management can successfully transition the business to the cloud, there is a lot to go for as E/CTRM is an attractive growth industry and Brady has a very high quality customer base.
Year |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/15 |
27.4 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
59.5 |
N/A |
12/16 |
30.3 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
0.0 |
24.4 |
N/A |
12/17e |
27.0 |
(1.8) |
(1.8) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/18e |
23.7 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
77.6 |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Trading update: Recurring revenues rise to 67%
FY17 revenue is expected to be c £27m (we forecast £29.0m), including the recycling business, with adjusted EBITDA in the range of £0.5-0.7m (we forecast £1.8m on Brady's basis). There was a faster-than-anticipated transition to the recurring revenue model, with £1.7m of one-off licence revenues transitioned to £0.8m of annual recurring revenue, and 67% of revenues are now recurring. Additionally, two contracts with revenue of £0.8m slipped into H118. There will be exceptional restructuring costs of c £2.0m.
Disposal: Lifts cash resources towards £8m
Brady is selling its recycling business to AMCS Group, an Irish software company, for a maximum cash consideration of £4.6m. The group ended FY17 with net cash of £4.4m (we forecast £5.7m) and the disposal will lift this towards £8m. Brady chose to sell the business as the recycling industry is a challenging end market, and the software platform was not suited to the transition to microservices.
Forecasts: FY18 adjusted down
We have reduced our FY18 revenues by 23% to reflect the disposal and trading issues. We have incorporated £2m exceptional charges in FY17 and now expect the group to end FY18 with net cash of £6.8m (previously £7.9m).
Valuation: Well positioned for a recovery
While we only forecast modest profitability in FY18, with the shares on c 78x our earnings, the shift to microservices and cloud delivery will enable much improved scalability of the business model. Meanwhile, the shares are underpinned by the c 67% recurring revenues and the very high-quality customer base.
Trading update: Transition to recurring model has been substantially achieved
FY17 revenue is expected to be c £27m (we forecast £29.0m), including the recycling business, with adjusted EBITDA in the range of £0.5-0.7m (we forecast £1.8m on Brady's basis). The £2m revenue miss is largely explained by two factors:
1)
Management has taken a strategic decision, where possible, to renew contracts on a recurring basis. During FY17, £1.7m of one-off licence revenues were replaced with rolling agreements providing recurring licence revenues, with an annual value of £0.8m for an initial five-year term and rolling annually thereafter.
2)
Two projects, with a value of c £0.8m, which were expected to be recognised as revenue in FY17, have slipped into H118. Undoubtedly this reflects the complex nature of many of the group’s projects.
A key priority for Brady has been the transition from a traditional one-off licence model to a recurring revenue model, in order to improve earnings visibility and deliver sustainable growth. The bulk of new licence revenue in FY17 was on a recurring basis, albeit for sales of additional users, and this has affected the short-term performance. FY17 recurring revenues were 67% of the total, up from 62% in FY16 and 56% in FY15. The bulk of the balance of group revenue is in professional services and development, and hence we would not expect to see the recurring revenue percentage rise much further in the near term. Work has continued on the restructuring of the business in order to better integrate the service offerings, resulting in exceptional costs of c £2.0m. Net cash as at 31 December 2017 was £4.4m (2016: £7.3m).
Disposal: Enables management to focus on the core physical trading commodity and energy businesses
Brady is selling its US-based recycling business to AMCS Group, an Irish software company focused on the waste and recycling sector, for a maximum consideration of £4.6m. We understand that Brady intends to use the proceeds to support its transition to microservices that we would expect to eventually lead to a cloud-based delivery model. The disposal includes Systems Alternative International which Brady acquired in November 2012 for an initial £3.9m, along with ScrapRunner, which Brady acquired in July 2015 for c £1.3m.
Brady will receive gross proceeds of up to £4.6m less an adjustment for any excess of current liabilities over current assets (estimated to be c £0.3m). Brady will receive c £3.6m ($5m) on completion with the balance payable in 18 months. For the year ended 31 December 2016, the Recycling Business generated revenues of £4.9m and operating profit of £0.8m. FY17 operating profits are expected to be £0.3m. As at 31 December 2017, the recycling business' unaudited net assets were £6.4m, including intangible assets of £4.6m.
Forecasts: FY18 updated, review FY19 after finals
We have reduced our FY17 forecasts in line with the statement. This puts EBITDA (Brady definition) in the middle of the range at £0.6m, which equates to a £1.1m loss on the Edison definition. The FY17 numbers include the recycling business, which will be shown as a discontinued item in the FY17 results. For FY18, we have reduced our revenue forecast by 23% to £23.7m, which includes the impact of the recycling disposal. We forecast FY18 EBITDA of £3.0m (Brady definition), which equates to £1.4m on the Edison definition. We have added the £2m exceptional items in FY18, which we assume will all be cash. Consequently, we now forecast the group to end FY18 with net cash of £6.8m (previously £7.9m). This is before the final c £1m payment for the recycling business in FY20. We will review our FY19 forecasts following the final results in March.
Exhibit 1: Forecast changes
FY17e |
FY18e |
|||||||
FY15 |
FY16 |
Old |
New |
Change |
Old |
New |
Change |
|
Revenue |
27,374 |
30,269 |
29,000 |
27,000 |
(7) |
30,822 |
23,732 |
(23) |
Total operating costs |
(28,333) |
(29,736) |
(31,521) |
(30,680) |
(3) |
(29,952) |
(24,922) |
(17) |
Operating result before exceptional items (Brady) |
(959) |
533 |
(2,521) |
(3,680) |
46 |
870 |
(1,190) |
(237) |
Add back: |
|
|
||||||
Depreciation |
582 |
678 |
700 |
700 |
0 |
700 |
590 |
(16) |
Amortisation of acquired intangible assets |
1640 |
1718 |
1750 |
1750 |
0 |
1750 |
1750 |
0 |
Amortisation of other intangible assets |
1187 |
1598 |
1843 |
1843 |
0 |
1885.12 |
1855.36 |
(2) |
Adjusted EBITDA (Brady definition) |
2,450 |
4,527 |
1,772 |
613 |
(65) |
5,205 |
3,005 |
(42) |
Deduct: Amortisation of capitalised dev't |
(1,187) |
(1,598) |
(1,843) |
(1,843) |
0 |
(1,885) |
(1,855) |
(2) |
Add back: Share-based payments |
243 |
90 |
100 |
100 |
0 |
300 |
200 |
(33) |
Adjusted EBITDA (Edison definition) |
1,506 |
3,019 |
29 |
(1,130) |
(3,936) |
3,620 |
1,350 |
(63) |
Operating costs before development costs (Edison) |
(27,230) |
(27,885) |
(29,985) |
(28,996) |
(3) |
(27,915) |
(23,479) |
(16) |
Amortisation of acquired intangible assets |
(1,640) |
(1,718) |
(1,750) |
(1,750) |
0 |
(1,750) |
(1,750) |
0 |
Amortisation of development costs |
(1,187) |
(1,598) |
(1,843) |
(1,843) |
0 |
(1,885) |
(1,855) |
(2) |
Capitalisation of development costs |
1,967 |
1,555 |
2,158 |
2,009 |
(7) |
1,899 |
2,362 |
24 |
Share based payments |
(243) |
(90) |
(100) |
(100) |
0 |
(300) |
(200) |
(33) |
Total operating costs (Brady) |
(28,333) |
(29,736) |
(31,521) |
(30,680) |
(3) |
(29,952) |
(24,922) |
(17) |
Source: Brady (historicals), Edison Investment Research (forecasts
Valuation: Brady provides a rare opportunity to invest in E/CTRM software
The stock trades on 77.6x our FY18 earnings. Alternatively, the shares trade on 1.8x our FY18 sales and 31x EBITDA (Edison method). As the company is undergoing a transition, the shares do not look appealing on near-term traditional valuation metrics. However, there are a number of reasons why we think investors should take a longer-term view.
1.
The transition to microservices and the cloud, supported by the shift to a global functional team, will significantly improve the scaleability of the business.
2.
The latest restructuring of the cost base will add additional efficiencies to the business.
3.
The global E/CTRM end market is an attractive market, valued at c $1.65bn (source: ComTech Advisory 2016) and growing at mid-single digits. Brady has a strong market position, being the top in metals globally and the leading European ETRM (energy trading and risk management) player.
4.
Brady has a high-quality blue chip customer base that includes many household names.
5.
The sector remains in disarray after a swathe of private equity-funded deals in 2011-13. These deals were transacted at high sales multiples that make Brady look cheap. ION remains active in the space, having announced the acquisition of Aspect Enterprise Solutions, a global provider of cloud-based CTRM solutions, in October 2017.
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
£'000s |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017e |
2018e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
29,355 |
31,015 |
27,374 |
30,269 |
27,000 |
23,732 |
EBITDA |
|
|
3,122 |
5,592 |
1,506 |
3,019 |
(1,130) |
1,350 |
Adjusted Operating Profit |
|
|
2,470 |
5,019 |
924 |
2,341 |
(1,830) |
760 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(1,613) |
(1,613) |
(1,640) |
(1,718) |
(1,750) |
(1,750) |
||
Exceptionals items |
355 |
(2,143) |
(469) |
(1,159) |
(2,000) |
0 |
||
Share based payments |
(313) |
(232) |
(243) |
(90) |
(100) |
(200) |
||
Operating Profit |
899 |
1,031 |
(1,428) |
(626) |
(5,680) |
(1,190) |
||
Net Interest |
29 |
58 |
31 |
3 |
20 |
30 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
2,499 |
5,077 |
955 |
2,344 |
(1,810) |
790 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
928 |
1,089 |
(1,397) |
(623) |
(5,660) |
(1,160) |
Tax |
189 |
(630) |
(329) |
(1,230) |
326 |
(158) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
2,249 |
4,315 |
813 |
1,992 |
(1,485) |
632 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
1,117 |
459 |
(1,726) |
(1,853) |
(5,335) |
(1,318) |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
80.9 |
81.3 |
82.7 |
83.0 |
83.3 |
83.8 |
||
EPS – normalised (p) |
|
|
2.8 |
5.3 |
1.0 |
2.4 |
(1.8) |
0.8 |
EPS – FRS 3 (p) |
|
|
1.4 |
0.6 |
(2.1) |
(2.2) |
(6.4) |
(1.6) |
Dividend per share (p) |
1.70 |
1.85 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
10.6 |
18.0 |
5.5 |
10.0 |
(4.2) |
5.7 |
||
Adjusted Operating Margin (%) |
8.4 |
16.2 |
3.4 |
7.7 |
(6.8) |
3.2 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
39,137 |
32,614 |
31,461 |
37,035 |
35,237 |
29,278 |
Intangible Assets |
37,519 |
30,996 |
29,831 |
35,999 |
34,415 |
28,571 |
||
Tangible Assets |
983 |
1,076 |
1,147 |
978 |
764 |
649 |
||
Deferred tax |
635 |
542 |
483 |
58 |
58 |
58 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
15,420 |
16,948 |
13,633 |
14,640 |
10,909 |
12,494 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
8,198 |
7,368 |
7,039 |
7,297 |
6,509 |
5,721 |
||
Cash |
7,222 |
9,580 |
6,594 |
7,343 |
4,400 |
6,773 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(11,200) |
(10,545) |
(10,804) |
(12,669) |
(11,915) |
(10,757) |
Creditors |
(11,200) |
(10,545) |
(10,804) |
(12,669) |
(11,915) |
(10,757) |
||
Short-term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Long-Term Liabilities |
|
|
(4,467) |
(4,651) |
(4,814) |
(5,670) |
(5,670) |
(5,670) |
Long-term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other long-term liabilities |
(4,467) |
(4,651) |
(4,814) |
(5,670) |
(5,670) |
(5,670) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
38,890 |
34,366 |
29,476 |
33,336 |
28,561 |
25,345 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
4,277 |
6,209 |
2,363 |
2,737 |
(193) |
2,787 |
Net Interest |
29 |
58 |
31 |
3 |
20 |
30 |
||
Tax |
(378) |
(420) |
(416) |
(428) |
(400) |
(842) |
||
Capex |
(2,442) |
(2,419) |
(2,591) |
(2,167) |
(2,495) |
(2,837) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(751) |
0 |
(1,186) |
(326) |
(66) |
3,234 |
||
Financing |
125 |
338 |
469 |
47 |
190 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(1,296) |
(1,378) |
(1,524) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(436) |
2,388 |
(2,854) |
(134) |
(2,943) |
2,373 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(7,838) |
(7,222) |
(9,580) |
(6,594) |
(7,343) |
(4,400) |
Other |
(180) |
(30) |
(132) |
883 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(7,222) |
(9,580) |
(6,594) |
(7,343) |
(4,400) |
(6,773) |
Source: Brady (historicals), Edison Investment Research (forecasts)
|
|
Euromoney’s AGM trading update indicates performance continuing in line with full year expectations, subject to currency which is now a headwind. Our forecasts are adjusted to take this, and recent M&A, into account. Q118 subscriptions and content are showing underlying growth of 2%. This masks the divergence between a strong showing from Pricing (+10%) and continued MiFID II-prompted drag from Asset Management (-6%). Portfolio changes (as well as strong cash conversion) have resulted in a marked reduction in net debt to £49.0m as at end December 2017, with the prospect of moving into net cash during FY19, subject to M&A.