Last close As at 05/08/2026
CHF50.70
▲ 0.20 (0.40%)
Market capitalisation
CHF681m
Research: Healthcare
Basilea continues to build on its key franchises, Cresemba and Zevtera, with FY19 contributions from both increasing 39% to CHF114m, driven mainly by Cresemba. Longer-term value creation is dependent on crystallising mid/late-stage oncology assets, with new trials initiated or expected for both derazantinib (multiple data points expected in 2020) and lisavanbulin (trial initiation by mid-year expected). We forecast break-even at the operating profit level in 2021 and value Basilea at CHF1.10bn.
Written by
Basilea Pharmaceutica |
Cresemba sales the focus for future profitability |
Full Year results |
Pharma & biotech |
20 February 2020 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Basilea Pharmaceutica is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Basilea continues to build on its key franchises, Cresemba and Zevtera, with FY19 contributions from both increasing 39% to CHF114m, driven mainly by Cresemba. Longer-term value creation is dependent on crystallising mid/late-stage oncology assets, with new trials initiated or expected for both derazantinib (multiple data points expected in 2020) and lisavanbulin (trial initiation by mid-year expected). We forecast break-even at the operating profit level in 2021 and value Basilea at CHF1.10bn.
Year end |
Revenue (CHFm) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/18 |
132.6 |
(31.0) |
(2.88) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/19 |
134.4 |
(22.2) |
(2.07) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/20e |
134.4 |
(26.7) |
(2.48) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/21e |
151.6 |
(4.4) |
(0.41) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Advancing on all fronts
Now available in 40 countries (forecast to reach 60 by end 2021), Cresemba (isavuconazole) sales continue to accelerate, with in-market sales (year ending September 2019) from partners of approximately $190m (+32% y-o-y). In 2019, Basilea reported positive US Phase III TARGET data on Zevtera which, together with the ERADICATE study, will form the basis of a US NDA submission (potential launch in 2023). Mid-stage asset derazantinib (fibroblast growth factor receptor (FGFR) inhibitor) could be the first of Basilea’s oncology assets to market (forecast in 2023 in bile duct cancer based on data from FIDES-01). Two new trials in urothelial (FIDES-02 initiated in Q319) and gastric cancers (FIDES-03 forecast to be initiated in Q320) could further expand derazantinib’s utility. Lisavanbulin, a potential novel tumour checkpoint controller, is forecast to enter Phase II development by mid-year.
Financials: Current product contribution growing
Non-deferred Cresemba and Zevtera (C&Z) revenue grew in FY19 to CHF68.7m (from CHF50.5m) to contribute 60% of C&Z-related revenue (CHF114.3m) from 38% previously. This trend is expected to continue in 2020, with Basilea forecasting that non-deferred revenue represents c 70% of total C&Z-related revenues (company forecasts CHF77–87m in FY20). Revenue growth in FY19 was offset by a reduction in the deferred contract revenue from Toctino to zero (FY18: CHF23.9m). Cost and total operating expenses decreased slightly y-o-y to CHF151.6m from CHF156.6m, aiding a reduction in the net loss to CHF22.4m vs CHF31.4m previously. Basilea has a convertible bond in issue, which is not due for conversion until end 2022. We forecast break-even at the operating profit level in 2021, with subsequent profitability driven by Cresemba and Zevtera revenues.
Valuation: rNPV of CHF1.10bn or CHF102/share
Our revised valuation is CHF1.10bn or CHF102/share versus CHF1.18bn or CHF109/share previously. The decrease is driven by an increase in near-term costs and reduction in cash (net debt CHF36.7m vs CHF19.5m at end June 2019). Our valuation is based on an NPV analysis for marketed products, a risk-adjusted NPV for the pipeline and net debt of CHF36.7m at 31 December 2019.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
CHF'000s |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020e |
2021e |
||
December |
US GAAP |
US GAAP |
US GAAP |
US GAAP |
US GAAP |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
101,521 |
132,555 |
134,381 |
134,368 |
151,570 |
Cost of Sales |
(9,025) |
(20,299) |
(18,868) |
(18,412) |
(16,499) |
||
Gross Profit |
92,496 |
112,256 |
115,513 |
115,956 |
135,071 |
||
Research and development (gross) |
(55,055) |
(104,942) |
(102,662) |
(105,000) |
(101,000) |
||
SG&A |
(54,491) |
(31,409) |
(30,051) |
(32,574) |
(33,319) |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
(15,150) |
(22,272) |
(15,560) |
(19,019) |
3,575 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
|
(16,950) |
(23,972) |
(17,060) |
(21,382) |
997 |
Intangible Amortisation |
(100) |
(123) |
(140) |
(237) |
(245) |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
(17,050) |
(24,095) |
(17,200) |
(21,619) |
752 |
||
Net Interest |
(1,976) |
(7,065) |
(5,182) |
(5,417) |
(5,417) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(18,926) |
(31,037) |
(22,242) |
(26,799) |
(4,420) |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(19,026) |
(31,160) |
(22,382) |
(27,036) |
(4,665) |
Tax |
(334) |
(192) |
(40) |
(26) |
(26) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(19,260) |
(31,229) |
(22,282) |
(26,825) |
(4,446) |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(19,360) |
(31,352) |
(22,422) |
(27,062) |
(4,691) |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
10.8 |
10.8 |
10.8 |
10.8 |
10.8 |
||
EPS - normalised (CHFc) |
|
|
(178.36) |
(288.15) |
(207.16) |
(249.40) |
(41.34) |
EPS - (reported) (CHFc) |
|
|
(179.28) |
(289.28) |
(208.47) |
(251.60) |
(43.62) |
Dividend per share (c) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
91.1 |
84.7 |
86.0 |
86.3 |
89.1 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
2.4 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
0.7 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
58,189 |
7,013 |
36,607 |
38,238 |
40,162 |
Intangible Assets |
326 |
372 |
372 |
572 |
772 |
||
Tangible Assets |
7,768 |
6,424 |
5,162 |
6,593 |
8,317 |
||
Investments |
50,095 |
217 |
31,073 |
31,073 |
31,073 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
292,976 |
274,738 |
184,860 |
129,351 |
123,049 |
Stocks |
15,320 |
14,411 |
18,569 |
17,655 |
13,561 |
||
Debtors |
4,955 |
3,757 |
6,242 |
6,258 |
7,059 |
||
Cash |
260,724 |
223,908 |
131,044 |
76,433 |
73,423 |
||
Other |
11,977 |
32,662 |
29,005 |
29,005 |
29,005 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(79,491) |
(66,684) |
(75,494) |
(54,161) |
(254,832) |
Creditors |
(79,491) |
(66,684) |
(75,494) |
(54,161) |
(59,366) |
||
Short term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(195,466) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(313,114) |
(281,754) |
(238,933) |
(230,402) |
(26,238) |
Long term borrowings |
(196,224) |
(196,982) |
(197,740) |
(197,740) |
(1,516) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(116,890) |
(84,772) |
(41,193) |
(32,662) |
(24,722) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
(41,440) |
(66,687) |
(92,960) |
(116,974) |
(117,859) |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
19,014 |
(79,210) |
(63,836) |
(44,937) |
7,181 |
Net Interest |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(5,417) |
(5,417) |
||
Tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(26) |
(26) |
||
Capex |
(711) |
(419) |
(294) |
(4,031) |
(4,547) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
3,391 |
42,813 |
1,266 |
(200) |
(200) |
||
Dividends |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
21,694 |
(36,816) |
(62,864) |
(54,611) |
(3,010) |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(43,564) |
(64,500) |
(26,926) |
36,696 |
91,307 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(758) |
(758) |
(758) |
0 |
758 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(64,500) |
(26,926) |
36,696 |
91,307 |
93,559 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Healthcare
InMed Pharmaceuticals recently announced that the first human clinical trial (755-101-HV) of its lead program, INM-755 for the treatment of epidermolysis bullosa (EB), is currently around 50% enrolled with full enrollment expected this quarter and data in H220. This trial is testing two strengths of INM-755 cream on the intact skin of 22 healthy volunteers. The company expects to file a clinical trial application (CTA) for a second trial (755-102-HV) this quarter with initiation in Q220. This upcoming trial would test INM-755 on eight healthy volunteers with small wounds.