Last close As at 05/08/2026
—
— 0.00 (0.00%)
Market capitalisation
—
Research: Healthcare
PDL BioPharma (PDL) has announced that following the completion of a strategic review process it has decided to cease additional strategic investments and monetize the company’s assets, returning net proceeds to shareholders. As the assets are not focused on any one area within healthcare, we believe they will likely need to be sold off piecemeal, which will lead to a relatively lengthy process (the company has estimated two to three years or longer). PDL’s stock has typically traded at a discount to its book value ($5.58 per share as of the end of Q319), so this should be a way to unlock the value of the company.
Written by
PDL BioPharma |
Company to seek to monetize assets |
Development update |
Pharma & biotech |
19 December 2019 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
PDL BioPharma is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PDL BioPharma (PDL) has announced that following the completion of a strategic review process it has decided to cease additional strategic investments and monetize the company’s assets, returning net proceeds to shareholders. As the assets are not focused on any one area within healthcare, we believe they will likely need to be sold off piecemeal, which will lead to a relatively lengthy process (the company has estimated two to three years or longer). PDL’s stock has typically traded at a discount to its book value ($5.58 per share as of the end of Q319), so this should be a way to unlock the value of the company.
Year |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/17 |
320.1 |
200.3 |
0.81 |
0.00 |
4.1 |
N/A |
12/18 |
198.1 |
78.8 |
0.45 |
0.00 |
7.4 |
N/A |
12/19e |
102.6 |
(15.9) |
(0.16) |
0.00 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/20e |
124.8 |
17.2 |
0.12 |
0.00 |
27.7 |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortization of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
$275m share and convertible note repurchase
As part of its plan to maximize shareholder value, the company has initiated a $275m (upsized from $200m) share and convertible note repurchase program. As a reminder, PDL ended Q319 with $294.3m in cash and $150m in principal owed in the form of convertible debt. Utilizing this program, the company exchanged $119.3m in debt for $98m in cash and 13.4m shares of common stock and now has $30.7m in debt outstanding.
Positive Phase IIb data for Evofem
Evofem (29% owned by PDL) recently released positive and statistically significant data from its Phase IIb 860-patient AMPREVENCE trial of Amphora for the prevention of infection from Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) and Neisseria gonorrhea (gonorrhea) in women. Use of Amphora led to a 50% relative risk reduction in chlamydia infection (p=0.024) and a 78% reduction in gonorrhea infection (p=0.03). Evofem expects to meet with the FDA and plans to initiate a Phase III in 2020, with anticipated approval in 2022. Additionally, Evofem recently resubmitted its application for the approval of Amphora for the prevention of pregnancy and a PDUFA date has been set for 25 May 2020.
Valuation: $767m or $6.17 per share
We have adjusted our valuation for PDL to $767m or $6.17 per basic share, from $730m or $6.39 per share, as we now include additional Amphora sales due to a label for the prevention of chlamydia and gonorrhea in our model. We assign a 50% probability of success and an additional $87m in peak sales for Amphora if chlamydia and gonorrhea prevention are added to the product labelling. The total value also benefitted from the recent note exchange though the per-share value fell due to additional shares issued as part of that transaction.
Strategic review completed
PDL initiated a strategic and financial review with an external advisor in September to provide an independent perspective on its business with regards to capital allocation and whether it should return additional capital to shareholders (the company recently completed its third stock buyback program, repurchasing around 32% of its shares since March 2017), focus capital on existing investments, or concentrate on making additional investments.
Following the completion of a strategic review process it has decided to cease additional strategic investments and monetize the company’s assets, returning net proceeds to shareholders likely in the form of additional stock repurchase programs and/or dividends. Given that the assets are not focused on any one area within healthcare, we believe they will likely need to be sold off piecemeal, which will lead to a relatively lengthy process (the company has estimated two to three years or longer). Also, we assume that the buyers of these assets will include both financial and industry players.
Amphora data in chlamydia and gonorrhea prevention
Evofem released positive and statistically significant data from its Phase IIb 860-patient AMPREVENCE trial of Amphora for the prevention of infection from chlamydia and gonorrhea in women. Over a four-month period, use of Amphora led to a 50% relative risk reduction in chlamydia infection as only 4.9% of women in the Amphora arm were infected compared to 9.8% of those in the placebo arm (p=0.024). For gonorrhea, 0.7% of those in the Amphora arm were infected versus 3.2% in the placebo arm, a 78% reduction (p=0.03). Importantly, the safety profile of Amphora remained attractive with slightly fewer adverse events in the Amphora arm (7.2%) than in the placebo arm (7.5%). The next steps for the company will be to discuss this data with the FDA at an end-of-Phase II meeting. Evofem currently expects to initiate the Phase III program in 2020 with approval in 2022.
Exhibit 1: AMPREVENCE Phase IIb efficacy data
Infection type |
Number infected – Amphora arm (%) |
Number infected – placebo arm (%) |
p-value |
Chlamydia |
14 out of 288 patients (4.9%) |
28 out of 287 patients (9.8%) |
p=0.024 |
Gonorrhea |
2 out of 280 patients (0.7%) |
9 out of 277 patients (3.2%) |
p=0.03 |
Source: Evofem
The addressable market is large with 1.8m new cases of chlamydia in 2018 (up 19% over 2014) according to the CDC. Gonorrhea had over 583,000 new cases in 2018, up 63% over 2014. Both infections may lead to serious complications if untreated as they can spread to the uterus and fallopian tubes and cause pelvic inflammatory disease (PID). PID can lead to chronic pelvic pain and permanent damage to the reproductive system.
While there is a large market and a medical need, we are not sure if women will specifically use Amphora for prevention of these sexually transmitted infections but believe they are more likely to use it to prevent both infection and pregnancy. Hence, our forecasts are based on the idea that infection prevention will make Amphora incrementally more attractive as a contraceptive (as neither hormonal contraceptives, spermicides nor intrauterine devices (IUD) have been shown to decrease infection rates), which is a much larger market. According to the CDC, 61.7% of the 60.9 million women aged 15–44 use contraception and 27.6% (around 16.8 million) use either short- or long-acting hormonal oral contraceptive pills or devices such as a ring or a patch.
|
Exhibit 2: Contraception method share in women aged 15–44 |
|
|
Source: CDC, National Center for Health Statistics, Data Brief number 173, December 2014 |
According to Evaluate Pharma, $6.5bn worth of hormonal contraceptives were sold in 2018 and importantly many still have meaningful sales despite being on the market for two to three decades and being off patent (see Exhibit 3). While generics exist, brand is important in this market.
Exhibit 3: Select marketed hormonal contraceptive products
Product |
Generic name |
Company |
Launch year |
Patent expiry |
2018 sales ($m) |
Mirena |
Levonorgestrel |
Bayer |
1990 |
Dec 2015 |
1,350 |
Nexplanon |
Etonogestrel |
Merck & Co |
1998 |
Sep 2009 |
703 |
Lo Loestrin FE |
Ethinyl estradiol; ferrous fumarate; norethindrone acetate |
Allergan |
2011 |
Feb 2029 |
528 |
Yasmin |
Drospirenone; ethinyl estradiol |
Bayer |
2000 |
May 2008 |
755 |
NuvaRing (vaginal ring) |
Ethinyl estradiol; etonogestrel |
Merck & Co |
2002 |
Apr 2018 |
902 |
Source: Evaluate Pharma
Evofem recently resubmitted its application for the approval of Amphora for the prevention of pregnancy. The FDA acknowledged the receipt of the application and assigned a PDUFA date of 25 May 2020, by which time it is expected to make a decision on the application.
Valuation
We have adjusted our valuation for PDL to $767m or $6.17 per basic share, from $730m or $6.39 per share, as we now include additional Amphora sales due to a label for the prevention of chlamydia and gonorrhea in our model. We assign a 50% probability of success and an additional $87m in peak sales for Amphora if chlamydia and gonorrhea prevention are added to the product labelling. The total value also benefitted from the recent note exchange though the per-share value fell due to additional shares issued as part of that transaction.
We have not made any changes based on the announced change in company strategy but will do so as asset sales occur.
Exhibit 4: PDL valuation table
Royalty/note |
Type |
Expiration year |
PDL balance sheet carrying value ($m) |
NPV |
Assertio (formerly Depomed) |
Royalty on Glumetza and other products |
2024 |
$265.0 |
$271.1 |
VB |
Royalty on Spine Implant |
Undisclosed |
$14.5 |
$14.7 |
University of Michigan |
Royalty on Cerdelga |
2022 |
$21.2 |
$12.8 |
Wellstat |
Note (Impaired) |
Unknown |
$50.2 |
$50.2 |
Hyperion |
Note (Impaired) |
Unknown |
$1.2 |
$1.2 |
LENSAR |
Equity |
N/A |
$65.2 |
|
AcelRx |
Royalty on Zalviso |
2027 |
$12.7 |
$10.8 |
CareView |
Note (impaired) |
2022 |
$11.5 |
$11.5 |
Noden |
Equity |
N/A |
$34.8 |
$14.4 |
Kybella |
Royalty |
Unknown |
$0.6 |
$0.7 |
Evofem |
Equity |
N/A |
$67.2 |
$153.2 |
Total |
|
|
|
$606 |
Net cash (Q319 + debt transaction and stock buyback) ($m) |
$161.3 |
|||
Total firm value ($m) |
$767 |
|||
Total basic shares (m) |
124.4 |
|||
Value per basic share ($) |
$6.17 |
|||
Total options (m) |
0.0 |
|||
Total number of shares (m) |
124.4 |
|||
Diluted value per share ($) |
$6.17 |
|||
Source: Edison Investment Research
Financials
PDL ended Q319 with $294.3m in cash and $150m in principal owed in the form of convertible debt. In September, the company exchanged $86.1m of its debt due in December 2021 for $86.1m in debt due in December 2024, leaving $63.9m in debt due in December 2021. In December, the company initiated a $275m (upsized later in the same month from $200m) share and convertible note repurchase program to return value to shareholders. Utilizing this program, the company repurchased $119.3m in debt in exchange for $98m in cash and 13.4m shares of common stock and now has $30.7m in debt outstanding ($19.2m in debt due in December 2021 and $11.5m in debt due December 2024). We expect this reduced debt to lead to lower interest expense in 2020 and have lowered our estimate from $12.0m to $2.5m. Also, due to these transactions, the company terminated portions of its capped call transactions related to the debt that provided cash proceeds to the company of $6.7m. Following the termination of these capped call transactions, the company entered into an agreement with Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) to repurchase 3.2m shares that RBC had been holding to hedge the capped calls. This stock was acquired at the closing price on 12 December 2019 so we estimate that this cost the company approximately $11.0m in cash.
We believe PDL has enough capital to execute on the remainder of the repurchase program and will be able to initiate additional repurchase programs (or dividends) once assets are monetized successfully.
Also, as a reminder, last quarter PDL took a $27.4m non-cash charge following a decline in the stock price of Evofem. Evofem’s stock has since recovered and if this is maintained through the end of the quarter, we would expect that non-cash charge to reverse in Q419.
Exhibit 5: Financial summary
$000s |
2017 |
2018 |
2019e |
2020e |
||
Year end 31 December |
US GAAP |
US GAAP |
US GAAP |
US GAAP |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
320,060 |
198,110 |
102,641 |
124,800 |
Cost of Sales |
(30,537) |
(48,460) |
(52,540) |
(53,106) |
||
Gross Profit |
289,523 |
149,650 |
50,102 |
71,694 |
||
General & Administrative |
(63,324) |
(62,559) |
(53,494) |
(55,634) |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
218,818 |
84,136 |
(10,343) |
12,534 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
|
218,818 |
84,136 |
(10,343) |
12,534 |
Intangible Amortisation |
(24,689) |
(15,831) |
(6,320) |
(6,320) |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
(349) |
(118,899) |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
193,780 |
(50,594) |
(16,663) |
6,214 |
||
Net Interest |
(18,562) |
(5,328) |
(5,517) |
4,636 |
||
Other |
9,309 |
0 |
17,685 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
200,256 |
78,808 |
(15,860) |
17,170 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
184,527 |
(55,922) |
(4,495) |
10,850 |
Tax |
(73,826) |
(12,937) |
(3,117) |
(2,279) |
||
Deferred tax |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
126,430 |
65,871 |
(18,977) |
14,892 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
110,701 |
(68,859) |
(7,612) |
8,572 |
||
Minority interest |
(47) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit After Tax less Minority Interest (FRS 3) |
110,654 |
(68,859) |
(7,612) |
8,572 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
155.4 |
145.7 |
118.8 |
124.4 |
||
EPS - normalised ($) |
|
|
0.81 |
0.45 |
(0.16) |
0.12 |
EPS - FRS 3 ($) |
|
|
0.71 |
(0.47) |
(0.06) |
0.07 |
Dividend per share (c) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
90.5 |
75.5 |
48.8 |
57.4 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
68.4 |
42.5 |
(10.1) |
10.0 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
68.4 |
42.5 |
(10.1) |
10.0 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
602,680 |
446,519 |
427,203 |
384,008 |
Intangible Assets |
215,823 |
51,319 |
47,349 |
47,349 |
||
Tangible Assets |
7,222 |
7,387 |
6,917 |
8,165 |
||
Royalty rights |
349,223 |
376,510 |
282,549 |
238,106 |
||
Other |
30,412 |
11,303 |
90,388 |
90,388 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
640,443 |
517,217 |
320,695 |
397,902 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
31,183 |
21,648 |
12,581 |
12,581 |
||
Cash |
527,266 |
394,590 |
208,076 |
285,283 |
||
Other |
81,994 |
100,979 |
100,038 |
100,038 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(193,109) |
(52,470) |
(44,139) |
(44,122) |
Creditors |
(19,785) |
(13,142) |
(13,255) |
(13,255) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(126,066) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(47,258) |
(39,328) |
(30,884) |
(30,867) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(204,124) |
(181,487) |
(85,001) |
(85,001) |
Long term borrowings |
(117,415) |
(124,644) |
(30,700) |
(30,700) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(86,709) |
(56,843) |
(54,301) |
(54,301) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
845,890 |
729,779 |
618,758 |
652,787 |
Minority Interests |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Shareholder equity |
|
|
845,890 |
729,779 |
618,758 |
652,787 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
40,624 |
(13,425) |
(22,696) |
(10,430) |
Net Interest |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Capex |
(1,297) |
(4,523) |
(2,545) |
(1,248) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
128,415 |
57,969 |
84,110 |
88,885 |
||
Financing |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(222) |
(48) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
212,592 |
(46,202) |
(139,932) |
0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
380,112 |
(6,229) |
(81,063) |
77,207 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
85,289 |
(283,785) |
(269,946) |
(177,376) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exchange rate movements |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(11,038) |
(7,610) |
(11,507) |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(283,785) |
(269,946) |
(177,376) |
(254,583) |
Source: PDL BioPharma accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Industrials
Although the UK election result may provide greater certainty for car buyers, the most recent forecasts from industry bodies continue to anticipate weaker demand in 2020. While Marshall Motor Holdings (MMH) is delivering on its profit expectations for 2019, the combination of the potential further weakness in car markets and the investment being made in loss-making businesses to grow future share and profits leads us to reduce our FY20 PBT estimate by £4.1m. However, a FY20 P/E ratio of 7.7x remains undemanding and is supported by the healthy dividend yield.