In December, SNP completed its capital increase, raising gross proceeds of €18.7m (c €17.6m net). The funds will provide the group with significant financial flexibility and support its international growth strategy, including acquisitions. We have updated our model for the capital increase, which results in EPS coming back by 17.1% in both FY19 and FY20, solely reflecting the dilution impact from the new shares. Following the Q3 results, which showed a strong recovery in profits, we noted that there were signs that the group’s important S/4HANA transformation business had been picking up as SNP had won several small S/4HANA migrations. While the shares look punchy on c 27x our FY19e earnings, the rating could fall quickly as new projects come through.
Written by
SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner |
Capital base is boosted |
Capital increase |
Software & comp services |
7 January 2019 |
Share price performance
Business description
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Analysts
SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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In December, SNP completed its capital increase, raising gross proceeds of €18.7m (c €17.6m net). The funds will provide the group with significant financial flexibility and support its international growth strategy, including acquisitions. We have updated our model for the capital increase, which results in EPS coming back by 17.1% in both FY19 and FY20, solely reflecting the dilution impact from the new shares. Following the Q3 results, which showed a strong recovery in profits, we noted that there were signs that the group’s important S/4HANA transformation business had been picking up as SNP had won several small S/4HANA migrations. While the shares look punchy on c 27x our FY19e earnings, the rating could fall quickly as new projects come through.
Year end |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/16 |
80.7 |
6.0 |
100.4 |
39.0 |
15.9 |
2.4 |
12/17 |
122.3 |
3.8 |
61.9 |
0.0 |
25.7 |
0.0 |
12/18e |
137.9 |
(1.1) |
(19.4) |
0.0 |
N/A |
0.0 |
12/19e |
153.4 |
6.0 |
58.6 |
25.0 |
27.2 |
1.6 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Capital increase raises €18.7m gross (c €17.6m net)
The capital increase results in the issue of up to 1.127m new bearer shares, increasing the number of shares from 5.474m to 6.602m. The take-up of the subscription rights issue (one new share for every five existing shares at €16.60 per new share) was 90.6%. The balance has been placed at the subscription price with SN Assets, a private company affiliated with the CEO, Dr Andreas Schneider-Neureither. Dr Schneider-Neureither now holds c 22% of SNP’s expanded share capital. While SNP does not require the funds immediately, the money provides the group with extra financial flexibility and weighs concerns over the covenants on SNP’s €40m promissory notes. The €17.6m net proceeds add to the group’s €16.6m cash position as at the end of September while the promissory notes are not repaid until 2020 through to 2022. As part of the capital raising process, MC Investments, a private investment company, has acquired a c 8% stake in the company and is SNP’s second largest shareholder after the CEO.
Forecasts: Updated for the capital increase only
We have updated our model for the capital increase. The 20.6% increase in the number of shares reduces EPS by 17.1% going forward. We have not reduced the net interest charge as the funds are not being used to pay down debt. We have reduced our dividend forecasts to reflect the dilution in FY19 and FY20. We now forecast the group to end FY18 with net debt of €22.6m (previously €40.2m), which falls to €21.0m (€38.6m) at end-FY19 and €15.7m (€33.3) at end-FY20.
Valuation: Strong growth play in the ERP space
The stock trades on c 27x our earnings in FY19e, falling to c 14x in FY20e. Our discounted cash flow valuation (based on c 7% organic revenue CAGR over 10 years, 10% WACC, 14.8% long-term operating margin and 2% terminal growth) is €30/share, c 90% above the current share price.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
€'000s |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
2020e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
56,236 |
80,685 |
122,343 |
137,895 |
153,449 |
166,606 |
Cost of sales |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Gross Profit |
56,236 |
80,685 |
122,343 |
137,895 |
153,449 |
166,606 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
5,484 |
8,124 |
6,868 |
3,343 |
10,883 |
16,162 |
Adjusted Operating Profit |
|
|
4,222 |
7,114 |
5,113 |
55 |
7,239 |
12,390 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0 |
(657) |
(2,021) |
(1,600) |
(1,600) |
(1,600) |
||
Exceptionals |
356 |
400 |
(3,600) |
(300) |
0 |
0 |
||
Associates |
(3) |
8 |
(24) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
4,575 |
6,865 |
(532) |
(1,845) |
5,639 |
10,790 |
||
Net Interest |
(828) |
(1,137) |
(1,327) |
(1,200) |
(1,300) |
(1,100) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
3,394 |
5,977 |
3,786 |
(1,145) |
5,939 |
11,290 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
3,747 |
5,728 |
(1,859) |
(3,045) |
4,339 |
9,690 |
Tax |
(1,195) |
(1,517) |
(807) |
343 |
(1,782) |
(3,387) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
2,198 |
4,460 |
2,980 |
(801) |
4,157 |
7,903 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
2,552 |
4,211 |
(2,666) |
(2,701) |
2,557 |
6,303 |
||
Minority interest |
0 |
(147) |
234 |
(267) |
(289) |
(312) |
||
Adjustments for normalised earnings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net income (norm) |
2,198 |
4,313 |
3,214 |
(1,069) |
3,868 |
7,591 |
||
Net income (FRS 3) |
2,552 |
4,064 |
(2,431) |
(2,969) |
2,268 |
5,991 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
3.7 |
4.3 |
5.2 |
5.5 |
6.6 |
6.6 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
58.8 |
100.4 |
61.9 |
(19.4) |
58.6 |
115.0 |
EPS - normalised & fully diluted (c) |
|
|
58.8 |
100.4 |
61.9 |
(19.4) |
58.6 |
115.0 |
EPS - FRS 3 (c) |
|
|
68.3 |
94.6 |
(46.8) |
(53.8) |
34.4 |
90.7 |
Dividend per share (c) |
34.00 |
39.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
25.00 |
33.00 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
9.8 |
10.1 |
5.6 |
2.4 |
7.1 |
9.7 |
||
Adjusted Operating Margin (%) |
7.5 |
8.8 |
4.2 |
0.0 |
4.7 |
7.4 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
15,243 |
30,109 |
75,171 |
73,698 |
72,258 |
71,018 |
Intangible Assets |
11,675 |
24,179 |
67,012 |
65,380 |
63,748 |
62,115 |
||
Tangible Assets |
1,999 |
3,161 |
5,187 |
5,346 |
5,538 |
5,931 |
||
Other |
1,570 |
2,769 |
2,972 |
2,972 |
2,972 |
2,972 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
29,996 |
58,424 |
78,614 |
78,485 |
80,167 |
84,723 |
Stocks |
0 |
371 |
371 |
418 |
466 |
506 |
||
Debtors |
16,084 |
25,652 |
43,781 |
44,346 |
49,348 |
53,579 |
||
Cash |
13,769 |
31,914 |
33,877 |
33,135 |
29,768 |
30,053 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(13,703) |
(32,631) |
(40,531) |
(40,517) |
(44,862) |
(48,353) |
Creditors |
(11,101) |
(14,523) |
(29,295) |
(29,281) |
(33,626) |
(37,117) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(2,602) |
(18,108) |
(11,236) |
(11,236) |
(11,236) |
(11,236) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(15,513) |
(7,327) |
(53,157) |
(45,583) |
(40,583) |
(35,583) |
Long term borrowings |
(12,344) |
(5,531) |
(49,487) |
(44,487) |
(39,487) |
(34,487) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(3,169) |
(1,796) |
(3,670) |
(1,096) |
(1,096) |
(1,096) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
16,024 |
48,575 |
60,097 |
66,083 |
66,980 |
71,805 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
1,879 |
1,005 |
(5,316) |
2,686 |
10,148 |
15,362 |
Net Interest |
(167) |
53 |
(798) |
(1,200) |
(1,300) |
(1,100) |
||
Tax |
(554) |
(412) |
(1,366) |
321 |
(1,663) |
(3,161) |
||
Capex |
(1,779) |
(3,451) |
(5,234) |
(3,447) |
(3,836) |
(4,165) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(3,228) |
(5,923) |
(28,783) |
(11,701) |
(1,716) |
0 |
||
Shares issued |
0 |
30,129 |
18,293 |
17,600 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(483) |
(1,264) |
(1,932) |
0 |
0 |
(1,651) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(4,332) |
20,137 |
(25,136) |
4,258 |
1,633 |
5,285 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(3,431) |
1,176 |
(8,275) |
26,847 |
22,588 |
20,955 |
Other |
(275) |
(10,686) |
(9,985) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
1,176 |
(8,275) |
26,847 |
22,588 |
20,955 |
15,671 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Includes additional payments for Adepcon in FY18 and FY19, and final payments for RSP, Astrums/Hartung, Harlex and Innoplexia in FY18.
|
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Research: Investment Companies
Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust (MNP) has a new lead manager, Zehrid Osmani, formerly a senior portfolio manager and head of European equities research at BlackRock. He describes the trust as ‘the same vehicle with a new engine’, and is very excited about the prospects in his new role. Having introduced new elements to Martin Currie’s investment process, the manager is confident that the trust’s performance can improve, which he hopes will become apparent over the next 24 months. Osmani recognises that the AIC Global sector is a competitive peer group, so he understands that MNP’s performance needs to stand out from the crowd. The trust has a zero discount mechanism and a progressive dividend policy, and currently offers a yield of 1.8%.