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Research: TMT
Centaur’s trading update, issued alongside its capital markets day, indicates good progress in H221 to date, building on the post-pandemic recovery in revenues and margin reported for H1. We have edged up our expectations, particularly on the pace of improvement in EBITDA margin towards the FY23 management target of 23%. The share price has held the gain made after the interim results and is now up 68% year-to-date, yet the rating remains at a discount to peers.
Centaur Media |
Building margin |
CMD and trading update |
Media |
13 October 2021 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Centaur Media is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Centaur’s trading update, issued alongside its capital markets day, indicates good progress in H221 to date, building on the post-pandemic recovery in revenues and margin reported for H1. We have edged up our expectations, particularly on the pace of improvement in EBITDA margin towards the FY23 management target of 23%. The share price has held the gain made after the interim results and is now up 68% year-to-date, yet the rating remains at a discount to peers.
Year end |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
P/E |
EV/EBITDA |
Yield |
12/19 |
39.6 |
(1.5) |
(1.4) |
N/A |
13.7 |
3.0 |
12/20 |
32.4 |
(0.3) |
0.2 |
252.5 |
16.3 |
1.0 |
12/21e |
37.5 |
2.0 |
0.9 |
56.1 |
11.0 |
2.0 |
12/22e |
42.8 |
4.2 |
2.2 |
23.0 |
7.8 |
2.0 |
Note: *PBT and EPS (FD) are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Progress at XEIM and The Lawyer
The statement indicates that XEIM is likely to achieve (underlying) revenue growth for FY21 of around 16%, with The Lawyer expected to report a 7% increase. We have therefore edged our full year revenue figures ahead by £0.3m for FY21 and FY22. The uplift in FY21 adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to c 15% compares with our earlier expectation of 13.7%, indicating a more profitable mix of business coupled with good control of the cost base. Within the ‘Flagship 4’ brands, Econsultancy is achieving stronger subscription growth (both new business and blended learning propositions), while the Marketing Week Mini MBA is delivering ‘high double-digit growth’. The recovery post the COVID-19 lockdowns in Influencer Intelligence is taking hold as the customer base re-establishes. The Lawyer is benefiting from good corporate renewals and more subscription sales, indicating a higher quality of earnings. We have lifted our expectation for the EBITDA margin in FY22e from 18.0% to 18.5%.
Strong balance sheet supports growth
The statement indicates end September net cash of £12.4m, from £11.9m at the half-year (which excluded lease liabilities of £2.4m). This implies that payment terms have stayed strong through the pandemic and the recovery to date. With the interim dividend payment of 0.5p per share yet to go out, our model indicates a year-end figure of £11.7m (was £11.0m previously). With a long-term £10m revolving credit facility also in place, Centaur has plenty of financing flexibility.
Valuation
The share price is up 68% year to date as confidence builds that management will deliver against its MAP23 objectives. While improved profit expectations among some quoted B2B media peers have reduced comparative EV/EBITDA multiples, Centaur’s valuation remains at a discount on this metric (averaged over FY20–22 to smooth out the pandemic impact). If this discount were to close, the shares would be priced at 56p (July: 58p), still over 10% above the current level.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£m |
2019 |
2020 |
2021e |
2022e |
||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
39.6 |
32.4 |
37.5 |
42.8 |
Other operating income |
1.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Cost of Sales |
(9.4) |
(7.3) |
(10.3) |
(12.2) |
||
Gross Profit |
30.2 |
25.1 |
27.1 |
30.6 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
4.0 |
3.8 |
5.6 |
7.9 |
Normalised operating profit/ loss |
|
|
(1.2) |
0.0 |
2.4 |
4.5 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(2.5) |
(1.5) |
(1.1) |
(0.5) |
||
Exceptionals |
(4.0) |
(0.3) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Share-based payments |
(0.1) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
||
Reported operating profit/ loss |
(7.8) |
(2.3) |
0.8 |
3.5 |
||
Net Interest |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(1.5) |
(0.3) |
2.0 |
4.2 |
Profit/Loss Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(8.1) |
(2.6) |
0.4 |
3.2 |
Reported tax |
0.6 |
0.9 |
(0.6) |
(0.7) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(2.0) |
0.3 |
1.4 |
3.5 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(7.5) |
(1.7) |
(0.2) |
2.5 |
||
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Discontinued operations |
9.4 |
(12.7) |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
0.4 |
0.4 |
1.4 |
3.5 |
||
Net income (reported) |
1.9 |
(14.4) |
(0.2) |
2.5 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
143 |
144 |
145 |
147 |
||
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
(1.4) |
0.2 |
1.0 |
2.4 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted, continuing (p) |
|
|
(1.4) |
0.2 |
0.9 |
2.2 |
EPS - basic reported, continuing (p) |
|
|
(5.3) |
(1.2) |
(0.1) |
1.7 |
Dividend per share (p) |
1.5 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
(2.5) |
(15.6) |
15.4 |
14.2 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
76.3 |
77.5 |
72.4 |
71.6 |
||
EBITDA (IFRS) Margin (%) |
10.1 |
11.7 |
14.9 |
18.5 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin (%) |
(3.0) |
0.0 |
6.3 |
10.5 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
67.4 |
52.3 |
50.7 |
49.3 |
Intangible Assets |
61.2 |
46.1 |
45.1 |
44.5 |
||
Tangible Assets |
4.3 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
||
Deferred tax |
1.4 |
2.4 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
||
Other receivables |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
19.7 |
14.3 |
16.8 |
20.8 |
Stocks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Debtors |
10.3 |
5.8 |
4.9 |
5.6 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
9.3 |
8.3 |
11.7 |
15.0 |
||
Other |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(23.3) |
(17.8) |
(19.4) |
(20.4) |
Creditors |
(12.5) |
(8.8) |
(9.6) |
(9.6) |
||
Tax and social security |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Short term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other/ Lease liabilities |
(10.8) |
(9.0) |
(9.8) |
(10.8) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(2.7) |
(1.6) |
(0.7) |
(0.7) |
Long term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other long term liabilities, including leases |
(2.7) |
(1.6) |
(0.7) |
(0.7) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
61.1 |
47.2 |
47.4 |
49.1 |
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
61.1 |
47.2 |
47.4 |
49.1 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
4.5 |
(0.0) |
5.6 |
7.9 |
||
Working capital |
2.1 |
(1.0) |
2.6 |
0.2 |
||
Exceptional & other |
(2.0) |
3.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Tax |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Operating cash flow |
|
|
4.7 |
2.1 |
8.1 |
8.1 |
Capex |
(1.6) |
(0.8) |
(0.9) |
(1.1) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
16.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net interest |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
||
Equity financing |
(0.6) |
0.0 |
(0.4) |
(0.3) |
||
Dividends |
(7.1) |
0.0 |
(1.5) |
(1.5) |
||
Other |
(2.2) |
(2.1) |
(1.6) |
(1.7) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
9.3 |
(1.0) |
3.4 |
3.3 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(0.1) |
(9.3) |
(8.3) |
(11.7) |
FX |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
(0.1) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(9.3) |
(8.3) |
(11.7) |
(15.0) |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
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