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Technicolor’s Q1 results reflect limited COVID-19 impact, which will show more markedly in Q2. Q1 disruption to Connected Home’s Chinese supply chain is now broadly resolved, while lower activity in Production Services’ Film and Episodic visual special effects (VFX) had been flagged previously. Connected Home is seeing good US broadband demand, while Production Services is being hit by the industry’s cessation of live action filming. The group is on track to achieve run-rate cost savings of €100m by end FY20 and has identified a further €75m over the earlier €150m target for the next three years. Management anticipates reinstating guidance prior to the planned €300m equity fund raise and our estimates remain under review.
Technicolor |
Addressing the headwinds |
Q1 results |
Media |
13 May 2020 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Technicolour is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Technicolor’s Q1 results reflect limited COVID-19 impact, which will show more markedly in Q2. Q1 disruption to Connected Home’s Chinese supply chain is now broadly resolved, while lower activity in Production Services’ Film and Episodic visual special effects (VFX) had been flagged previously. Connected Home is seeing good US broadband demand, while Production Services is being hit by the industry’s cessation of live action filming. The group is on track to achieve run-rate cost savings of €100m by end FY20 and has identified a further €75m over the earlier €150m target for the next three years. Management anticipates reinstating guidance prior to the planned €300m equity fund raise and our estimates remain under review.
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
EBITA |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
12/17 |
4,253 |
151 |
47 |
(4.3) |
0.0 |
N/A |
12/18 |
3,988 |
98 |
7 |
(3.2) |
0.0 |
N/A |
12/19 |
3,800 |
42 |
(97) |
(6.5) |
0.0 |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Mixed Q1 performance by segment
Group Q120 revenues were down 14.1% to €739m (constant currency), with adjusted EBITDA 17.3% lower at €27m. Reduced rendering costs led to a smaller adjusted EBITA loss, management’s preferred earnings measure. The three business segments all had lower revenues, with divergent earnings performance. Reduced activity levels at Production Services Film and Episodic VFX reflected delays in green-lighting projects by a major client while it dealt with internal issues, resulting in a higher adjusted EBITA loss of €15m (H119: €4m loss). DVD Services’ performance was in line with previous trends, while Connected Home had a good North American result, where broadband demand was robust and revenues rose 11%. Other markets were weaker, notably video in Europe/Asia and Latin America, where conditions were volatile. Management estimates exceptional costs related to COVID-19 of €2m in Q120, from under-utilisation within Production Services.
Grounds laid for rights issue
Management reported net debt at end March of €1.6bn (vs €1.2bn at FY19). The group’s H1 typically sees a cash outflow, with cash generation in H2. Preparations for the intended €300m rights issue are in place, with the reverse 27:1 share split now effective. Precise timing is subject to appropriate market conditions. A successful capital raise will trigger an 18-month extension on both the existing RCF (which tapers from €250m through CY20 to €202.5m from December 2021) and the $125m facility from Wells Fargo. The rights issue as envisaged should reinforce the balance sheet and allow for investment to be made to drive improving profitability.
Valuation: Reflecting stock and market uncertainty
Technicolor’s share price has fallen by c 70% year-to-date and at the current price, the group is trading at a historical EV/sales multiple of 0.4x, with the value of the equity dwarfed by the scale of the net debt. At current levels, the proposed refinancing would result in significant dilution.
Q1 renders no surprises
The group’s summary results for Q120 are shown below and are broadly as we anticipated, although we do not publish quarter or half-year forecasts. Changes at constant currency, as shown in the table below, are more pronounced than expressed at current rate. While the group operates in a large number of currencies, the most important rate is that of US$:€. In Q119, this averaged at 0.88. For Q120, the equivalent rate was 0.91, a 3% difference. Management reports that the effect of COVID-19 only really affected the figures from March onwards. These numbers also do not yet reflect the benefit from the cost savings, outlined in our earlier notes (April update, February flash), although 70% of the planned headcount reduction had been achieved by the end of the quarter.
Exhibit 1: Summary Q120 results
€m |
Production Services |
Change |
DVD Services |
Change |
Connected Home |
Change |
Corporate & Other |
Change |
Group |
Change |
Revenue |
176 |
-14.8% |
160 |
-16.5% |
393 |
-13.9% |
9 |
+125% |
739 |
-14.1% |
Adjusted EBITDA |
11 |
-64.1% |
1 |
-89.8% |
16 |
+433% |
(1) |
+89.0% |
27 |
-17.3% |
Margin |
6.2% |
0.6% |
4.1% |
(11.0%) |
3.6% |
|||||
Adjusted EBITA |
(15) |
N/A |
(16) |
N/A |
(1) |
N/A |
(2) |
N/A |
(34) |
+19.3% |
Margin |
(8.4%) |
(10.0%) |
(0.2%) |
(22.8%) |
(4.6%) |
Source: Company accounts. Note: Changes at constant currency.
At the time of the Capital Markets Day in February, €150m of targeted savings across the group were identified with a run-rate of €100m by the end of FY20. A further €75m is now targeted over a three-year horizon, which is likely to be mostly through lease and property savings. There is a freeze on non-critical spending and the chair and CEO have both taken a 25% reduction on their fixed compensation.
Connected Home: Trading and outlook
Although Connected Home revenues were down 14%, this represented a mix by geography and by product. North American Broadband revenues were up by 16%, with good demand from major customers such as Charter, Cox, Rogers and Shaw. Comcast demand was more even between Broadband and Video. Overall North American revenues (of which a significant majority represents the Broadband offering) were up 10.6%, constrained by a deterioration in the US$:€ exchange rate. In territories where lockdown conditions have been more rigorous, management indicated that access had been more difficult, partly explaining the divergence of performance between North America and other territories. In Europe, the Middle East and Africa, where Video constitutes a larger part of the mix, revenues were down by 43%. Video revenues were down by 16.5%, but there are opportunities to enhance the quality of earnings here. After a long burn, Android TV (which may be rebranded as Google TV) is gaining traction in the market and Technicolor has been developing product that incorporates targeted adtech into the set-top box, opening up new potential revenue streams for network service providers. In Latin America, particularly in Brazil, currency devaluation and the deterioration in macro-economic conditions have made for a more difficult trading environment.
COVID-19 has highlighted the importance of reliable broadband connections and high-quality wi-fi in the home as domestic premises increasingly act as devolved workplaces, as well as needing to meet the requirements of greater content consumption. This is unlikely to change as the global economy reopens.
The strategy of focusing on fewer (large) customers with more platform-based product looks sensible, given the thin margins available.
DVD Services: Trading and outlook
DVD combined replicated volumes were down 22% on Q119, translating to a 16.5% fall in reported revenues at constant currency, representing a fall of €28m. However, the financial metrics of the business are already starting to improve after the cost savings already implemented and with the first benefits from renegotiated studio contracts. The reduction in adjusted EBITDA was €7m, with lower depreciation and amortisation making the reduction at adjusted EBITA level €3m. There was no new news on further contract renegotiations or extensions with the major studios at this juncture.
Many major new releases from the studios have been pushed back to H220, or even FY21, with a minority being released directly through to video on demand. Technicolor has been experiencing strong demand for back catalogue sales, with the retailers bolstering sales efforts. The group has also been using underused warehousing and logistical capacity to assist with distributing supplies to address the COVID-19 pandemic. Management has highlighted that, with major production facilities in Memphis and in Guadalajara in Mexico, it is possible that plants could be forced to close temporarily.
Production Services: Trading and outlook
Again, the situation is not uniform across the segment. As discussed above, the Film & Episodic business is largely at the mercy of the studios production and release schedules. A major studio client had a hiatus post corporate and internal changes in FY19 – part of the reason for increasing the emphasis on VFX for episodic productions outlined back in February. With COVID-19 having effectively halted all live action filming, the pipeline for this business and for Post Production has mostly evaporated. The group has reacted by initiating staffing reductions and staff furloughs (where schemes are available) among the creative teams, but aware of the need to retain access to the talent that it will need when production eventually restarts. The studios are obviously anxious to resume as soon as possible, but there will inevitably be a considerable time lag between the lights going back on film stages and TV studios and work coming through to Technicolor.
Other areas of the business segment are also mixed. Advertising had been performing well with a benign economy and ever-increasing creativity. With the onset and spread of the pandemic, campaigns have been pulled, delayed or pared back. The outlook depends on a recovery in economic conditions and consumer confidence. Animation and Games, on the other hand, had ‘strong double-digit’ growth in Q119. These areas are benefiting from the thirst for new content and the fact that production can be done from home provided the relevant individuals have the appropriate equipment.
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
€'m |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
|||||
Revenue |
|
|
4,253 |
3,988 |
3,800 |
Cost of Sales |
(3,651) |
(3,521) |
(3,375) |
||
Gross Profit |
602 |
467 |
425 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
345 |
266 |
301 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
|
142 |
58 |
(12) |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(9) |
(81) |
(54) |
||
Exceptionals |
(54) |
(127) |
(55) |
||
Reported operating profit |
40 |
(119) |
(121) |
||
Net Interest |
(96) |
(51) |
(84) |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
1 |
0 |
(1) |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
47 |
7 |
(97) |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(55) |
(170) |
(206) |
Reported tax |
(112) |
(54) |
(3) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(65) |
(47) |
(99) |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(167) |
(224) |
(208) |
||
Minority interests |
0 |
(1) |
0 |
||
Discontinued operations |
(5) |
157 |
(22) |
||
Net income (normalised) |
(65) |
(48) |
(99) |
||
Net income (reported) |
(172) |
(68) |
(230) |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
15.3 |
15.3 |
15.4 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
(4.3) |
(3.2) |
(6.5) |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
(4.3) |
(3.2) |
(6.5) |
Dividend per share (c) |
1.6 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
(6) |
(5) |
|||
Gross Margin (%) |
14.2 |
11.7 |
11.2 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
8.1 |
6.7 |
7.9 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin (%) |
3.3 |
1.5 |
(.3) |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
2,161 |
2,101 |
2,082 |
Intangible Assets |
1,567 |
1,591 |
1,483 |
||
Tangible Assets |
243 |
233 |
476 |
||
Investments & other |
38 |
26 |
40 |
||
Deferred tax and other |
313 |
251 |
84 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
1,551 |
1,659 |
1,126 |
Stocks |
238 |
268 |
243 |
||
Debtors |
684 |
677 |
507 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
319 |
291 |
64 |
||
Other |
310 |
423 |
312 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(1,669) |
(1,909) |
(1,542) |
Creditors |
(947) |
(1,135) |
(825) |
||
Tax and social security |
(33) |
(34) |
(41) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(20) |
(20) |
(95) |
||
Other |
(669) |
(720) |
(581) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(1,514) |
(1,385) |
(1,604) |
Long term borrowings |
(1,077) |
(1,004) |
(1,203) |
||
Deferred tax |
(193) |
(193) |
(27) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(437) |
(381) |
(401) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
529 |
466 |
62 |
Minority interests |
3 |
1 |
0 |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
532 |
467 |
62 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||
Net profit |
(167) |
(224) |
(208) |
||
Depreciation and amortisation |
240 |
234 |
322 |
||
Working capital |
71 |
2 |
(69) |
||
Tax and interest |
(57) |
(53) |
(76) |
||
Exceptional & other |
168 |
159 |
101 |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
255 |
118 |
70 |
Capex |
(145) |
(113) |
(169) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(25) |
1 |
(2) |
||
Equity financing |
1 |
0 |
1 |
||
Dividends |
(25) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(13) |
28 |
3 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
48 |
34 |
(97) |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
679 |
778 |
733 |
FX |
(39) |
1 |
|||
Discontinued |
(88) |
105 |
0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
(20) |
(95) |
(404) |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
778 |
733 |
1,234 |
Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Healthcare
CASI has made surprising progress despite COVID-19. The company reported Evomela sales of $3.37m in Q120, significantly exceeding our expectations. This is the highest single quarter revenue to date (out of three since its August 2019 approval in China). The impact of COVID-19 on sales appears to be low thus far, or at least surpassed by the underlying growth. Moreover, the company continued to advance its development programs CNCT19 and CID-103 at a steady pace.