Last close As at 05/08/2026
GBP19.25
▲ −8.00 (−0.41%)
Market capitalisation
GBP1,977m
Research: Consumer
Greggs’ Q221 trading has surprised on the upside, with positive two-year like-for-like (lfl) sales growth continuing through the end of the period, having previously reported a return to growth earlier than expected. We upgrade our revenue forecasts for FY21, assuming a positive lfl outturn for the rest of the year, versus negative previously, leading to PBT upgrades for FY21 and FY22 of 18%. The strength of the recovery also leads us to increase our dividend forecast for FY21 by more than 150%. The P/E for FY22 of 22.4x is consistent with Greggs’ average trading multiples before COVID-19, reflecting its medium-term growth outlook and shareholder returns, but below prior peak multiples.
Greggs |
Rate of recovery continues to surprise |
Q221 trading update |
Retail |
28 June 2021 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Greggs is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Greggs’ Q221 trading has surprised on the upside, with positive two-year like-for-like (lfl) sales growth continuing through the end of the period, having previously reported a return to growth earlier than expected. We upgrade our revenue forecasts for FY21, assuming a positive lfl outturn for the rest of the year, versus negative previously, leading to PBT upgrades for FY21 and FY22 of 18%. The strength of the recovery also leads us to increase our dividend forecast for FY21 by more than 150%. The P/E for FY22 of 22.4x is consistent with Greggs’ average trading multiples before COVID-19, reflecting its medium-term growth outlook and shareholder returns, but below prior peak multiples.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/19 |
1,167.9 |
114.2 |
89.7 |
11.9 |
28.8 |
0.5 |
12/20 |
811.3 |
(12.9) |
(12.1) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/21e |
1,203.9 |
126.1 |
100.9 |
50.4 |
25.6 |
2.0 |
12/22e |
1,307.9 |
140.4 |
115.1 |
57.6 |
22.4 |
2.3 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Strong recovery continues at the end of Q221
Since the last update (to 8 May), trading has continued to be better than management anticipated, with lfl sales growth of +1 to +3% versus FY19 levels in company-managed stores. In the prior trading update, management highlighted strong pent-up demand for retail, which helped footfall generally, and reduced competition produced positive lfl sales growth in the most recent four weeks. At that stage, management anticipated those two positive drivers would ease and a return to negative two-year lfl growth was likely, but Greggs’ lfl trading remains positive.
FY21 PBT forecast upgraded by 18%
Our PBT forecast for FY21 and FY22 increases by 18% to reflect the better-than-expected end to H121, and we now assume lfl sales growth for H221 of +1% versus our prior assumption of -2%, and over 50% drop through to operating profit. Our FY21 revenue forecast of £1,204m is 3% higher than FY19’s reported £1,168m and the PBT estimate is 10% higher. Given the strength of the recovery, we feel comfortable in reverting to pre-COVID-19 levels for the dividend pay-out ratio of 50% for FY21 and FY22, increasing our dividend per share forecast for FY21 by more than 150%.
Valuation: In line with non-COVID-affected multiples
The share price has traded in a relatively narrow range since the May 2021 trading update. On our upgraded forecasts, the P/E multiples for FY21 and FY22 are 25.6x and 22.4x, the latter compares with Gregg’s average multiple in FY19 of 21.8x, and prior peak multiples through FY17–19 of 19.9–27.6x. Our assumption of a higher dividend per share for FY21 and FY22 produces a dividend yield for both years of 2% and 2.2% respectively.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£m |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021e |
2022e |
||
Year-end December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
1,029.3 |
1,167.9 |
811.3 |
1,203.9 |
1,307.9 |
Cost of Sales |
(373.5) |
(412.2) |
(299.6) |
(428.6) |
(460.5) |
||
Gross Profit |
655.9 |
755.7 |
511.7 |
775.2 |
847.3 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
145.7 |
231.9 |
115.4 |
246.9 |
263.0 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
|
89.8 |
120.7 |
(6.2) |
132.6 |
146.9 |
Intangible Amortisation |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
(7.2) |
(5.9) |
(0.8) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Operating Profit |
82.6 |
114.8 |
(7.0) |
132.6 |
146.9 |
||
Net Interest |
(0.0) |
(6.5) |
(6.7) |
(6.5) |
(6.5) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
89.8 |
114.2 |
(12.9) |
126.1 |
140.4 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
82.6 |
108.3 |
(13.7) |
126.1 |
140.4 |
Tax |
(18.2) |
(22.4) |
0.7 |
(24.0) |
(23.9) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
71.6 |
91.8 |
(12.2) |
102.1 |
116.6 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
65.7 |
87.0 |
(13.0) |
102.1 |
116.6 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
100.7 |
100.8 |
101.0 |
101.2 |
101.2 |
||
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) |
|
|
70.3 |
89.7 |
(12.1) |
100.9 |
115.1 |
EPS - (IFRS) (p) |
|
|
65.3 |
86.3 |
(12.9) |
100.9 |
115.1 |
Dividend per share (p) |
35.7 |
11.9 |
0.0 |
50.4 |
57.6 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
63.7 |
64.7 |
63.1 |
64.4 |
64.8 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
14.2 |
19.9 |
14.2 |
20.5 |
20.1 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
8.7 |
10.3 |
(0.8) |
11.0 |
11.2 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
347.5 |
646.5 |
631.0 |
641.6 |
670.4 |
Intangible Assets |
16.9 |
16.8 |
15.6 |
14.9 |
14.3 |
||
Tangible Assets |
330.5 |
353.7 |
345.3 |
356.6 |
386.0 |
||
Right-of-Use Assets |
0.0 |
272.7 |
270.1 |
270.1 |
270.1 |
||
Other |
0.2 |
3.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
140.6 |
142.3 |
98.7 |
193.7 |
241.8 |
Stocks |
20.8 |
23.9 |
22.5 |
25.2 |
27.1 |
||
Debtors |
31.6 |
27.1 |
39.4 |
33.0 |
35.8 |
||
Cash |
88.2 |
91.3 |
36.8 |
135.5 |
178.9 |
||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(145.1) |
(208.7) |
(144.1) |
(193.9) |
(204.4) |
Creditors |
(136.4) |
(154.1) |
(91.1) |
(140.9) |
(151.4) |
||
Leases |
0.0 |
(48.8) |
(48.6) |
(48.6) |
(48.6) |
||
Short term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
(8.7) |
(5.8) |
(4.4) |
(4.4) |
(4.4) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(13.8) |
(233.3) |
(264.0) |
(261.7) |
(261.7) |
Long term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Leases |
0.0 |
(226.9) |
(243.1) |
(243.1) |
(243.1) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(13.8) |
(6.4) |
(20.9) |
(18.6) |
(18.6) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
329.2 |
346.8 |
321.6 |
379.7 |
446.0 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
152.2 |
246.0 |
61.6 |
301.3 |
272.8 |
Net Interest |
0.2 |
(6.3) |
(5.9) |
(6.3) |
(6.1) |
||
Tax |
(16.1) |
(20.3) |
(10.7) |
(24.0) |
(23.9) |
||
Capex |
(64.9) |
(87.7) |
(59.8) |
(73.0) |
(93.0) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Equity financing |
5.3 |
4.9 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
||
Dividends |
(33.1) |
(72.1) |
0.0 |
(51.1) |
(58.3) |
||
Borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
(9.9) |
(61.4) |
(43.4) |
(51.9) |
(51.9) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
33.7 |
3.1 |
(54.5) |
98.7 |
43.3 |
||
Opening cash |
|
|
(54.5) |
(20.8) |
(17.7) |
(72.2) |
26.5 |
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing cash |
|
|
(20.8) |
(17.7) |
(72.2) |
26.5 |
69.8 |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(88.2) |
(91.3) |
(36.8) |
(135.5) |
(178.9) |
Closing net debt/(cash) including leases |
|
|
(88.2) |
184.4 |
254.9 |
156.2 |
112.8 |
Source: Greggs, Edison Investment Research
|
|
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